February 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer8906]

On 16/02/2022 at 12:30, damianslaw said:

Similar to Feb 2020 and 2014 in many ways..

Incredible that we've had three such extreme Februaries in just eight years.

If only we'd had three months at the opposite extreme, such as 1947, 1956 and 1986, in eight years instead, I might not be asking myself why I live in the UK anymore...

Edited February 18, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer Sun]

7.1c to the 17th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 6.8c on the 12th

[Don]

21 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The provisional February CET up to the 14th was 6.9*C, which makes it I believe, provisionally the mildest first half of February since possibly 2011; correct me if I am wrong?  

Could well be. 

I forgot February 2011 was a very mild month.  Strange that occurring just two months after the December to remember, then followed by the summer like record breaking warm April!

4 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Again we avoid a cold February.  It is now 31 years since the last significantly cold February CET, in 1991 at 1.5*C.  After so long it does make us all wonder is if we will ever see a really cold February again.  Although in recent times we did get a fairly cold February in 2018 at 2.9 CET, and prior to that we saw 2.8*C in 2010, but we have not had what you could reasonably call a notably cold February since 1991. 

The 31 year run and counting, must be close to a record time interval without a really cold February (CET going under 2*C), and also for that matter, the February CET has not gone under 2.8*C for 26 years and counting, and extending that threshold further, it has not gone under 2.5*C for 31 years and counting.

One would like to hope so, but who knows these days?!

[North-Easterly Blast]

Just now, Don said:

Could well be. 

I forgot February 2011 was a very mild month.  Strange that occurring just two months after the December to remember, then followed by the summer like record breaking warm April!

Although December 2010 was the second coldest on record, once the cold abated late in that month it was never to return, and once the exceptional December was over, the rest of that winter was actually not special, with January having a fair amount of UK High type weather and a number of frosts especially over its second half, but no proper cold synoptics, and the February in particular was very mild and SW'ly driven, with an attempt at a Scandy high and an easterly in the third week but it didn't quite come off.

[Don]

Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

Although December 2010 was the second coldest on record, once the cold abated late in that month it was never to return, and once the exceptional December was over, the rest of that winter was actually not special, with January having a fair amount of UK High type weather and a number of frosts especially over its second half, but no proper cold synoptics, and the February in particular was very mild and SW'ly driven, with an attempt at a Scandy high and an easterly in the third week but it didn't quite come off.

2010/11 was similar to 1981/82 in may ways, but the cold arrived a couple of weeks earlier during the last week of November as opposed to December 8th in 1981.  Consequently, it ended a couple of weeks earlier at the end of December compared to mid January 1982.

[Shillitocettwo]

On 31/01/2022 at 14:30, Shillitocettwo said:

   Although the start of the month will be fairly quiet, I reckon that before long Atlantic storms will be queuing up to lash rain and gales at us for most of the month and Half Term will be a washout. Think February 1997 it will be similar. Very wet!

    Nothing particularly cold that lasts any length of time, I think this has got 6.0.C and 166mm written all over it.

  I've got the storms right aright!

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, Don said:

2010/11 was similar to 1981/82 in may ways, but the cold arrived a couple of weeks earlier during the last week of November as opposed to December 8th in 1981.  Consequently, it ended a couple of weeks earlier at the end of December compared to mid January 1982.

Winter 2010-11 effectively ended at the end of December.  In fact the two months of January & February of that winter overall were only 0.2*C colder for the CET than the same months of winter 2015-16, after the warmest December on record.  

[Don]

5 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Winter 2010-11 effectively ended at the end of December.  In fact the two months of January & February of that winter overall were only 0.2*C colder for the CET than the same months of winter 2015-16, after the warmest December on record.  

Yes indeed.  Apart from December, winter 2010/11 was rather poor!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.4C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall 84.4mm 129.4% of the monthly average.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Just now, Don said:

Yes indeed.  Apart from December, winter 2010/11 was rather poor!

Winter 2010-11 was one of if not the most extreme example ever recorded of a so called pear shaped winter - by this I mean a winter that brings an early cold spell that deteriorates into nothing for the rest of the winter.  Looking back in the records the last time we saw something similar to Dec 2010 in terms of such a notable early freeze up was back in 1890 or even 1878.  Though in the earlier example January 1879 was also very cold, but in Feb 1879 the cold did moderate somewhat but it was still quite cold by today's standards.  After December 1890 the January of 1891 remained pretty cold, and although Feb 1891 was more uneventful and benign the cold did return in March 1891, so winter 1890-91 was not a winter where the early cold disappeared abruptly as in 2010-11.  Whereas looking at CET records, 2010-11 really does stand out as the most extreme example on record of a notable early cold spell deteriorating into nothing.

Another so called pear shaped winter in relatively recent times was 1996-97 - in that winter December was cold (though obviously nowhere near as cold as Dec 2010), and it did develop into an extended cold spell from Xmas through to the New Year which lasted until 10th January 1997; but once this cold spell broke that was it, the cold was never to return and the rest of that winter brought next to nothing, so in some ways winter 1996-97 was also in some ways a bit similar to 2010-11 albeit the cold to begin with was nowhere near as extreme.  

As you rightly say, winter 1981-82 was another so called pear shaped winter - after the cold weather of December and the first half of January broke down in mid January, it was never to return during the rest of that winter, although I do think that in Feb 1982, although no big freeze, it did get colder for a time in the second half of that month.

Winters 2010-11, 1996-97 and 1981-82 really belong in their own category, that is of pear shaped winters.

[Roger J Smith]

I will post the March forecast thread tonight (UK time) so it should be there in the morning. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 19th February 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.6 in 1893, which replaced 9.8 from 1796.  The highest value since 1893 was 10.2 in 1999. Other mild daily means include 10.0 in 1945, 9.6 in 1869, 1880 and 1989, and 9.5 in 1862. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -5.0 in 1777. Other low daily means were -4.7 in 1892, -4.1 in 1785, -3.9 in 1855, -3.5 in 1795, -2.5 in 1807, -2.2 in 1985, -2.1 in 1853, -2.0 in 1827, and -1.8 in 1864 and 1947.   

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.5 in 1961 which replaced 13.3 from 1893. Other mild days include 12.9 in 1903, 12.6 in 1990,  12.3 in 1998, 12.1 in 1999, 12.0 in 1900 and 1926, 11.7 in 1896, 11.6 in 1945, 11.5 in 1920 and 1949, and 11.4 in 1880. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.4 in 1945 and 1989. Other high minimum values were 8.3 in 1999, 7.9 in 1893, 7.8 in 1880, 7.7 in 1946, and 7.2 in 1935.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -0.6 in 1892. Other cold values were -0.3 (1947), 0.4 (1963), 0.6 (1956), 0.7 (1955), 0.8 (1929), 1.1 (1969), 1.3 (1942), 1.8 (1964), 1.9 (1978), 2.0 (1888 and 1902), 2.1 (1944), and 2.2 (1986). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -8.7 in 1892.  Other cold minima include -7.2 in 1985, -4.5 in 1932, -4.1 in 1991, -4.0 in 1940, -3.9 in 1894, -3.7 in 1987, and -3.6 in 1891.

The wettest 19th of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 12.35 mm (1950), followed by 12.25 mm (1966), and 10.95 mm (2002). 

The wettest week ending 19th February (13th - 19th Feb) was 51.47 mm (2020), followed by 38.19 mm (1995), 38.01 mm (1951), and 37.21 mm (1941).

The least amount falling in a week ending 19th February was 0.09 mm (1934), followed by 0.15 mm (1942), 0.39 mm (2003), 0.49 mm (1983), 0.50 mm (2008), 0.54 mm (1981), 0.68 mm (1985), 0.74 mm (1986), 0.83 mm (1998), 0.93 mm (2001), 0.94 mm (1961), 1.17 mm (1932 and 1993), 1.35 mm (1947), and 1.36 mm (1959).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1892, a cold spell underway.)  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1892&maand=2&dag=19&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited February 22, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

7.1c to the 18th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 6.8c on the 12th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.4C +1.8C degrees above normal. Rainfall 93.8mm 143.9% of the monthly average.

Should top 100mm this weekend so one of the wetter Febs on record.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update ... 68-70 mm now, 25-30 mm grid average now to end of month, would suggest a finish in the 90-100 mm range. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 20th February 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.3 in 1990, which replaced 10.7 from 1903, which was equalled in 2017. Other mild daily means include 10.5 in 1998, 10.3 in 2021, 9.8 in 1897, and 9.7 in 1935.  

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.6 in 1785. Other low daily means were -4.5 in 1795, -3.9 in 1855, -3.4 in 1792, -3.3 in 1955, -3.2 in 1956, -2.9 in 1777, -2.7 in 1810, -2.5 in 1986, -2.1 in 1942, -2.0 in 1947, -1.8 in 1864, and -1.7 in 1948..   

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 14.1 in 2017 which replaced 13.4 from 1998, which had replaced 13.2 from 1903. Other mild days include 13.3 in 2021, 12.8 in 1990, 12.5 in 1949, 12.2 in 1966, 11.7 in 2019, 11.6 in 1897, and 11.5 in 2014. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.7 in 1990, which replaced 8.3 from 1926 and 1935, which had edged out 8.2 from 1903. Other high minimum values were 8.0 in 1897, 7.7 in 1880, 7.6 in 1998, 7.5 in 1945, 7.4 in 2021, and 7.3 in 2017. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -0.7 in 1947. Other cold values were 0.0 (1956), 0.1 (1948), 0.7 (1986), 0.9 (1955), 1.1 (1942 and 1968), 1.8 (1902 and 1983), 2.1 (1978 and 1996), and 2.2 (1982). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -7.5 in 1955.  A minimum around -10 is likely for 1785. Other cold minima include -6.3 in 1956, -5.8 in 1986, -5.3 in 1942, -4.8 in 1894, -4.5 in 1963, -4.1 in 1933, -3.8 in 1929 and 2008, -3.5 in 1948 and 1968, -3.3 in 1892, and -3.2 in 1891, 1895 and 1947. 

The wettest 20th of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 12.77 mm (1967), followed by 10.15 mm (1935) and 8.03 mm (1969). 

The wettest week ending 20th February (14th - 20th Feb) was 54.53 mm (2020), followed by 42.45 mm (1951), 42.26 mm (1967), 40.67 mm (1977), and 39.36 mm (1995).

The least amount falling in a week ending 20th February was 0.09 mm (1934), followed by 0.42 mm (1932), 0.44 mm (1983), 0.45 mm (1942), 0.51 mm (2003), 0.78 mm (1981), 0.83 mm (1985), 0.84 mm (2008), 0.86 mm (1986), 0.92 mm (2013), 0.94 mm (1961), 1.09 mm (2001), 1.31 mm (1993), and 1.56 mm (1959).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1955, a notable late February cold spell.)  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1955&maand=2&dag=20&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.3C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall at 110.6mm 169.6% of the monthly average.

Plenty of more rain to come today at the moment the 7th wettest Feb on record for us won't make the wettest but may edge into 4th place with 147.8mm to beat.

[Summer Sun]

7.1c to the 19th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 6.8c on the 12th

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 21st February 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.2 in 2019, which replaced 10.6 from 1813. Other mild daily means include 10.4 in 1794 and 2016, 10.3 in 1903 and 2021, 9.9 in 1904 and 2017, 9.7 in 1997 and 9.6 in 1876.  

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -4.7 in 1810. Other low daily means were -4.3 in 1986, -4.1 in 1792, -3.2 in 1795, -2.9 in 1956, -2.8 in 1947, -2.7 in 1948 and 1955, and -2.5 in 1942.   

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 15.0 in 2019, the first of seven consecutive days which produced a record maximum. This replaced 13.2 from 2016 which had replaced 12.6 from 1878. Other mild days include 12.2 in 1903, 1953 and 2017, 12.1 in 2021, 11.9 in 1949, 11.6 in 1997, and 11.5 in 1904 and 1974. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.5 in 2021, which replaced 8.4 from 1903. Other high minimum values were 8.3 in 1904, 7.7 in 2016, 7.5 in 1998 and 2017 and 7.4 in 2019. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -2.1 in 1947 which replaced -1.0 set in 1942. Other cold values were -0.4 (1956 and 1986), -0.3 (1948), 0.0 (1955), 2.1 (2013), and 2.2 (1881). There's an unusual gap in the data between 0.0 and 2.1 today.

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -8.2 in 1986.  A similar reading is likely for 1810. Other cold minima include -5.4 in 1955, -5.3 in 1956, -5.0 in 1948, -4.9 in 1964, -4.5 in 1894, -4.4 in 1885, -4.0 in 1994, -3.9 in 1942, -3.4 in 1947 and 1996, and -3.1 in 1901. 

The wettest 21st of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 9.41 mm (1935), which is the lowest daily maximum of 1-28 February although 29 Feb has a lower value (with only one quarter as many data points). It was followed by 8.41 mm (1991) and 8.31 mm (1937). 

The wettest week ending 21st February (15th - 21st Feb) was 55.17 mm (2020), followed by 44.80 mm (1977), 43.00 mm (1967), and 42.50 mm (1951).

The least amount falling in a week ending 21st February was 0.09 mm (1934), followed by 0.20 mm (1983), 0.21 mm (1932), 0.61 mm (2013), 0.64 mm (2003), 0.71 mm (1961), 0.83 mm (1985), 0.87 mm (1942), 1.19 mm (2001), 1.30 mm (1993), and 1.41 mm (1986), .

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1986, the coldest part of a very cold month.)  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1986&maand=2&dag=21&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

[Summer Sun]

7.0c to the 20th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 6.8c on the 12th

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Turning out to be a fairly mild month now..

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 6.4C +1.7C above normal. Rainfall 147.6mm 226.4% of the monthly average.

[Scorcher]

5 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Turning out to be a fairly mild month now..

Understatement of the year! It's undoubtedly going to be in the 'very mild' category I think

[Roger J Smith]

I have updated the EWP scoring file based on an estimate of 108 mm, and with only five forecasts higher than that, the results are probably going to hold up with slight changes even if the end result went higher by any significant amount. At any outcome 95 to 110 mm, Leo97t has the top score for Feb, and in the annual scoring, freeze moves out to quite a large lead, with Feb1991Blizzard moving up from fifth to second. Will post a preliminary scoring table around the 23rd when possibly a more reliable estimate can be used. Freeze is shedding the previous chase pack as their forecast of 90 mm is considerably closer than most of the chasers, and with only five forecasts above the estimate (two of which already score higher) there's not much potential for any scores to change much now from the estimates. 

Shillitocettwo is the one high forecast (166 mm) that can use a significant boost in the outcome, the other higher forecasts already receive good scores from the range 100-120 mm. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 22nd February 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.7 in 1953, which replaced 9.8 from 1897. Since 1953, the highest mean is 10.0 in 2017, and the 9.8 value was equalled in 1990. Other mild daily means include 9.7 in 1794, 9.6 in 1813, 2008 and 2019, and 9.5 in 1802..  

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -3.3 in 1855. Other low daily means were -2.6 in 1942 and 1986, -2.5 in 1947, -2.1 in 1956, -1.9 in 1955, -1.8 in 1948, and -1.5 in 1810.   

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 15.0 in 2019, the second of seven consecutive days which produced a record maximum. This replaced 13.9 from 1990 which had replaced 13.0 from 1912. Other mild days include 12.8 in 1953, 12.5 in 1883, 12.3 in 1897 and 2008, 12.0 in 1918 and 2012, 11.9 in 1903 and 1959, 11.8 in 2017, 11.6 in 1997 and 11.5 in 1940. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.6 in 1953, which replaced 7.3 from 1897. Other high minimum values were 8.1 in 2017, 7.6 in 1970, and 7.2 in 1878 and 1997.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -0.8 in 1947. Other cold values were 0.0 (1955 and 1956), 0.6 (1888), 0.9 (1942), 1.1 (1948, 1986 and 2013), 1.8 (1981 and 1994), 1.9 (1879), and 2.0 (1881). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -6.3 in 1986.  A similar or lower reading is likely for 1855. Other cold minima include -6.0 in 1942, -4.7 in 1948, -4.6 in 1947, -4.2 in 1894, -4.1 in 1956, -3.8 in 1955, -3.7 in 1994, -3.6 in 1983, and -3.2 in 1909. 

The wettest 22nd of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 12.10 mm (1991), followed by 11.53 mm (1936), 11.26 mm (1995), 10.92 mm (1958), 10.63 mm (1946), and 10.32 mm (1967). 

The wettest week ending 22nd February (16th - 22nd Feb) was 49.94 mm (1967), followed by 47.32 mm (1977), 43.46 mm (1970), 41.34 mm (1995), and 41.03 mm (1966). The weekly maximum is the lowest value for 1-28 Feb although 23-29 Feb (with one-quarter the number of data points) is only 45.40 mm.

The least amount falling in a week ending 22nd February was 0.08 mm (1934), followed by 0.13 mm (1943), 0.18 mm (1932), 0.24 mm (1988), 0.35 mm (1961), 0.56 mm (2013), 0.66 mm (1983), 0.72 mm (1962), 1.31 mm (2003), 1.41 mm (1993), 1.49 mm (1942), and 1.50 mm (1985).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1956, showing a second cold spell during that month, this one longer in duration although less severe than 1st to 3rd already featured earlier.)  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1956&maand=2&dag=22&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Roger J Smith