Storm Eunice - 18th February

[jellybaby1969]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I don't understand why the media and TV forecasts are entirely focussed on Dudley? It's a bog standard winter storm and Eunice is going to be orders of magnitude more dangerous. 

As Dudley is current and will affect a large area of the northern UK. Once Dudley has past the models will be able to pin down Eunice path..and the southerners can panic whilst those up north can be stuck in a blizzard.. it's not a contest is it ?

[Guest]

Just now, shuggee said:

Chris Fawkes at 1.30pm on BBC1 did a good job there Nick - Eunice "strongest storms for many decades" twice....

I agree. I was an excellent forecast and very clear with the potential severity of this storm.

Many of us spoke, and hoped of downgrades nearer the time but they just haven't occurred. 

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:

As Dudley is current and will affect a large area of the northern UK. Once Dudley has past the models will be able to pin down Eunice path..and the southerners can panic whilst those up north can be stuck in a blizzard.. it's not a contest is it ?

Never said it was and there was no need for a reply like that.

[Joseph Hudson]

1 hour ago, Marcus_surfer said:

 

 

[jellybaby1969]

Well it was a rather daft comment.... Why would the media not pay more attention to a storm that is going to kick off in the next few hours..? and will affect many populated areas...

[Joseph Hudson]

sorry made first post is an accent and I cannot work out how to rid of quote boxes  anyway how likely is it Portsmouth gets red waring 

[Snow Queen one]

I would trade the blizzards and snow for the strong winds anyday.  I lost tiles on my roof  a ragstone garden wall was knocked down and the full length curtains i washed and left on the line vanished in 1987.  Was scariest thing i have witnessed.  Since that storm i have been very unnerved when it comes to high winds.

[Runcible Spoon]

1 minute ago, jellybaby1969 said:

Well it was a rather daft comment.... Why would the media not pay more attention to a storm that is going to kick off in the next few hours..? and will affect many populated areas...

because the severity of Dudley has by and large got less propensity to be a significant weather event than Eunice which may well be over a larger area in areas less used to storms?

[Mapantz]

It's blowing a hoolie out there right now! It'd be nice to break 60mph on my anemometer on Friday.

[jellybaby1969]

Oh I was living in Gosport in 87 was a devastating storm.

[shunthebartlett92]

1 minute ago, Snow Queen one said:

I would trade the blizzards and snow for the strong winds anyday.  I lost tiles on my roof  a ragstone garden wall was knocked down and the full length curtains i washed and left on the line vanished in 1987.  Was scariest thing i have witnessed.  Since that storm i have been very unnerved when it comes to high winds.

I think 90% plus people on this forum would if I’m honest! Going to be envious of those hitting the snow sweet spots this Friday 

[jellybaby1969]

Just now, Runcible Spoon said:

because the severity of Dudley has by and large got less propensity to be a significant weather event than Eunice which may well be over a larger area in areas less used to storms?

That's true..the south east is normally fairly benign. It will be a shock..meanwhile up here in Ayrshire ...Dudley is now kicking off.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, jellybaby1969 said:

That's true..the south east is normally fairly benign. It will be a shock..meanwhile up here in Ayrshire ...Dudley is now kicking off.

A Dudley level storm normally hits Scotland/north every season, possibly a couple of times a season in more active years. Its nothing too out of the ordinary, though of course it does merit warnings clearly.

Eunice as it is *currently* modelled is significantly more unusual. When your talking of possible 70-80mph gusts into densely populated areas that get those sorts of winds every 5-10 years or so, thats very media worthy and people do need to be given quite obvious media warnings, particularly given the area is just not used to those sorts of winds as you say.

Anyway still quite a few runs to go on the models and small shifts will make significant differences in terms of strength and location of strongest winds.

[Mapantz]

A few frames of the 12Z UKV. 80mph gusts in many locations..

  

[Josh Rubio]

I think quite a lot of people are going to be caught out by this if it materialises as to what the charts are showing. They will either be oblivious and/or ignore the warnings and just class it as ‘another windy day’. 
 

Inland areas will be the most affected, as we are not used to experiencing such high gusts. 

[Sainsbo]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

A Dudley level storm normally hits Scotland/north every season, possibly a couple of times a season in more active years. Its nothing too out of the ordinary, though of course it does merit warnings clearly.

Eunice as it is *currently* modelled is significantly more unusual. When your talking of possible 70-80mph gusts into densely populated areas that get those sorts of winds every 5-10 years or so, thats very media worthy and people do need to be given quite obvious media warnings, particularly given the area is just not used to those sorts of winds as you say.

Anyway still quite a few runs to go on the models and small shifts will make significant differences in terms of strength and location of strongest winds.

Every 5-10 years might even be underselling it a little bit. For many this is likely to be the worst storm since Burns' Day 1990.

 

This is the maximum February 10m wind gusts across the UK since 1950 according to the ERA5 reanalysis. It may be a slight underestimation compared to observations because of the resolution, but not a massive underestimation. A lot of southern England have not seen winds as high as currently being modelled (in February at least).

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A few frames of the 12Z UKV. 80mph gusts in many locations..

  

Just 1 out of 17 of the latest Mogreps are below 70mph gusts for the London area. Some like the UKV track a very strong region of winds across the M4 corridor and areas to the north (85mph on a few). ARPEGE also bringing a pretty wide area of 75-85mph gusts through the country in two distinct bands.

So yeah this is looking pretty high end stuff. IMO we aren't quite in the Burns day/1987 ballpark yet but definitely heading towards top tier on current trends.

[Country Boy]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

A Dudley level storm normally hits Scotland/north every season, possibly a couple of times a season in more active years. Its nothing too out of the ordinary, though of course it does merit warnings clearly.

Eunice as it is *currently* modelled is significantly more unusual. When your talking of possible 70-80mph gusts into densely populated areas that get those sorts of winds every 5-10 years or so, thats very media worthy and people do need to be given quite obvious media warnings, particularly given the area is just not used to those sorts of winds as you say.

Anyway still quite a few runs to go on the models and small shifts will make significant differences in terms of strength and location of strongest winds.

Yes a few more runs needed, a track of one hundred miles to the south  and that will bring in  blizzard conditions for   the home counties and East anglia.

its going to a penalty shot out.

[alexisj9]

41 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I don't understand why the media and TV forecasts are entirely focussed on Dudley? It's a bog standard winter storm and Eunice is going to be orders of magnitude more dangerous. 

It's not even that down here, just a small breeze.

[Midlander]

Looks like the ICON is moving towards the other models. Further north and deeper compared to 06Z, but still further south than the rest

[Mike Poole]

ICON 12z smelling the coffee, finally!  T51 v 6z T57:

I think that confirms the storm, it is now a question of where gets hit hardest.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Derbyshire_snow]

35 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:

As Dudley is current and will affect a large area of the northern UK. Once Dudley has past the models will be able to pin down Eunice path..and the southerners can panic whilst those up north can be stuck in a blizzard.. it's not a contest is it ?

I think people are being naive to think that Storm Dudley won't do much damage too many are brushing it off as nothing.

Especially for the North there are tens of thousands of properties in the North East that are still repairing their roofs from Storm Arwen with many still missing parts of their roof/tiles and having work done on them it won't take much to completely destroy people's roofs and that is just for a start.

[Ross90]

40 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Never said it was and there was no need for a reply like that.

I can see your point re it deserving more coverage but I think it's the South east bias on here and often on the news coverage of storms that irritates some people. I'm pretty sure most northern members on here would agree that if Eunice was forecast to hit north of Manchester then it would definitely not have 25 + pages. I wasn't on here in 2011/12 but there were two storms of similar strength to Eunice which mostly affected the north of England, NI and Scotland. I'd hazard a guess that those got nowhere near as much attention on here.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Ross90

[alexisj9]

26 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:

Oh I was living in Gosport in 87 was a devastating storm.

Central London, went school next day, as in those days if you could get there you did, and my mum had to drive around in circles to get to school, trees down blocking roads everywhere, one on a car, but I don't think anyone was in the car. Would have been when the tree fell though, as it was in middle of the road. 

[shunthebartlett92]

Small crumbs of comfort, but perhaps slightly less extensive with these 70/80mph gusts on the latest UKMO output? Just my take.