October 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[J10]

11.0c and 110mm

 

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for October 2022

The number in brackets is the order of entry (of last revision). Entries will be added for the first three days of October with increasing late penalties to be applied. 

 

CET _ EWP ___ Forecaster (entry) __________________ CET _ EWP ___ Forecaster (entry)

 

12.6 __ 77.7 _ Roger J Smith ( 44 ) __________________ 11.0 __ 90.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 16 )

12.5 __ 90.0 _ syed2878 (L1-3) _____________________ 11.0 __ 97.0 _ weather-history ( 27 )

12.2 _ 131.0 _ Reef ( 25 ) ___________________________ 11.0 __ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 40 )

12.2 _ 132.0 _ noname_weather (L1-6) ____________

12.1 __ 90.0 _ sunny vale ( 32 ) _____________________ 11.0 _110.0 _ J10 ( 47 )

11.9 _ 101.0 _ virtualsphere ( 15 ) __________________ 10.9 __ 88.0 _ summer 18 ( 12 )

11.9 _ 103.0 _ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 33 ) _______10.9 __ 85.0 _ stargazer ( 30 )

11.9 __ -- -- _ Duncan McAlister (L1-4) ______________

11.8 __ 58.0 _ SteveB ( 01 ) _________________________ 10.9 __ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 37 )

11.8 __ 81.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 11 ) ______________ 10.8 __ 93.0 _ Wold Topper ( 18 )

11.8 __ 50.0 _ The PIT ( 13 ) ________________________ 10.8 _ 102.9 _ 1991-2020 average (10.8_105.3 1992-2021)

11.8 __ 95.0 _ Ed Stone ( 14 ) _______________________10.7 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 26 )

11.7 __ 84.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 39 ) _______________10.7 __ 80.0 _ Mulzy ( 41 )

11.6 _ 117.0 _ Weather26 ( 06 ) ____________________ 10.6 __ 95.0 _ MrMaunder ( 20 )

11.6 _ --- --- _ Richie3846 ( 08 ) _____________________ 10.6 _ 108.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 34 )

11.5 _ 106.0 _ Don ( 46 ) ____________________________10.5 _ 100.0 _ JeffC ( 10 )

11.4 __ 65.0 _ freeze ( 28 ) __________________________10.5 _ 104.1 _ 1981-2010 average

11.4 __ 95.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 31 ) _________ 10.4 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 24 )

11.3 __ 94.2 _ Bobd29 ( 02 ) ________________________ 10.4 _ 136.0 _ summer blizzard ( 35 )

11.3 _ 112.3 _ Polar Gael ( 07 ) _____________________ 10.3 __ 76.0 _ daniel ( 42 )

11.3 __ 75.0 _ seaside60 ( 38 ) ______________________ 10.2 __ 52.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 05 )

11.2 _ 120.0 _ summer8906 ( 43 ) ___________________10.1 __ 88.0 _ NeilN ( 19 )

11.2 _ 107.0 _ February1978 ( 45 ) __________________ 10.1 __ 75.6 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 29 )

11.1 __ 68.0 _ snowray ( 22 ) _________________________10.0 _ 100.0 _ john88b ( 21 )

11.1 __ 82.0 _ Stationary Front ( 36 ) _________________ 9.9 _ 120.0 _ Frigid ( 04 )

11.1 _ 102.0 _ davehsug (L1-5) _______________________ 9.9 _ 105.0 _ jonboy ( 23 )

_______________________________________________________ 9.9 __ 99.0 _ rwtwm (L1-2)

_______________________________________________________ 9.8 __ -- -- _ Kentish Man (L1-7)

11.0 __ 95.0 _ consensus ____________________________ 9.7 __ 89.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 09 )

_______________________________________________________ 9.6 __ 87.0 _ Godber1 (L1-1)

_______________________________________________________ 9.5 _ 111.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 17 )

_______________________________________________________ 8.3 _ 100.0 _ Sky High ( 03 )

11.0 is consensus of 47 on-time entries and seven that are one day late (54 total so far).

Entries will be accepted to end of Monday 3rd October. 

 

================================= - =================================

EWP forecasts (in order)

136_sb .. 132_non^.. 131_Reef .. 120_Frig,sum8906 .. 117_wx26 .. 112.3_PG .. 111_shil .. 110_J10 ..

108_MIA .. 107_Feb78 ..  106_Don .. 105_jon .. 104.1_81-10 .. 103_Irem .. 102.9_91-20 .. 102_dave^ ..

101_virt .. 100_SkyH,Jef,john ..  99_rwtwm^ .. 97_wx-his .. 95_EdS,MrM,pSL .. 95.0_con .. 94.2_bob ..

 93_WT .. 90_DR(S),svale,syed^..  89_EG .. 88_sum18,NN .. 87_godb^.. 85_star .. 84_Feb91 .. 82_SF ..

 81_dww ..80_Mul ..77.7_RJS ..76_dan ..75.6_KW ..75_sea ..68_snow ..65_fre ..58_Ste ..52_DRL ..50_PIT

 

... 42 on time forecasts, and five marked one day late ^ ... 47 forecasts in total

... ... consensus (median) is 95.0 mm

 

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Godber 1]

9.6c and 87mm please.

[rwtwm]

Whoops! Busy week!

9.9c with 99mm please (only slightly tweaked from my actual thoughts because of the poetry)

[syed2878]

a little late for me this month. However, October I am going with 12.5c and precipitations. I am going with 90 mm

[Duncan McAlister]

Sorry, slightly late guess of 11.9 for me, please!

[davehsug]

11.1c and 102mm please.

[noname_weather]

12.2C and 132mm, sorry for being a little late again 

[Kentish Man]

Sorry one day late but to plug a gap 9.8C please.  

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772 - 2021 extreme values

________________________________________________________________

All values in this table are now converted to v2.0, including the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 running means.

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN ______________ Running CET extremes

01 ___ 12.7 ___ 12.7 ___ 20.1 (1985) __ 6.1 (1808&1888) __ 20.1 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808,88)
02 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 17.9 (1959,2011) _ 3.6 (1817&1888) __18.9 (2011) ___ 4.9 (1888)
03 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.2 ___ 19.7 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817) ________19.2 (2011) ___ 5.0 (1888)
04 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___ 17.8 (1886) ___ 5.1 (1912) ________18.1 (2011) ___ 5.2 (1888)
05 ___ 11.4 ___ 12.0 ___ 18.1 (1921) ___ 4.6 (1888) ________17.6 (2011) ___ 5.1 (1888)

06 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.9 ___18.9 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888) ________16.9 (1959) ___ 4.9 (1888)
07 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.9 ___16.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829) ________16.6 (1959) ___ 4.9 (1888)
08 ___ 11.6 ___ 11.8 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829) ________16.3 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1888)
09 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.8 ___17.3 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 5.4 (1888)
10 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.8 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 5.6 (1888)

11 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.8 ___ 17.7 (2005) ___ 4.0 (1860) ________16.5 (1921) ___ 5.9 (1888)
12 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.8 ___ 16.3 (1978) ___ 3.0 (1887) ________16.3 (1921) ___ 6.2 (1888)
13 ___ 11.2 ___ 11.7 ___ 18.4 (2018) ___ 2.2 (1838) ________16.0 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)
14 ___ 10.7 ___ 11.6 ___ 17.1 (2017) ___ 3.1 (1838) ________15.8 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)
15 ___ 10.6 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.8 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843) ________15.4 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)

16 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.3 (2017) ___ 1.8 (1843) ________15.1 (1921) ___ 6.3 (1888)
17 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.4 ___ 15.5 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1888)
18 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.3 ___ 16.5 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843) ________14.9 (1921) ___ 6.5 (1817)
19 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.0 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813) ________15.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)

20 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842) ________14.7 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)

21 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 15.1 (1826) ___ 1.2 (1842) ________14.5 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
22 ____ 9.7 ___ 11.0 ___ 16.1 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931) ________14.3 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
23 ____ 9.4 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.2 (1998) ___ 1.0 (1859) ________14.0 (1921) ___ 6.4 (1817)
24 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.2 (2009) ___ 0.7 (1859) _______ 13.7 (1995) ___ 6.4 (1817)
25 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.8 ___ 13.9 (2013) ___ 2.0 (1784) ____13.6 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
 

26 ____ 9.4 ___ 10.7 ___ 14.9 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785) ________13.5 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
27 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.6 (1888) ___ 1.6 (1778, 1869) __13.5 (1995,2001) __ 6.4 (1817)
28 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.4 (1888) ___ 1.2 (1895) ________13.4 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817)
29 ____ 8.7 ___ 10.6 ___ 14.1 (2005) ___ 0.3 (1895) _______ 13.3 (2001) ___ 6.2 (1817)
30 ____ 9.0 ___ 10.5 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.3 (2001) ___ 6.3 (1817)
 
31 ____ 9.1 ___ 10.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836) ________13.2 (2001) ___ 6.4 (1817)*

===================================================================

*1740 ended with 5.3 and probably had colder running CET values at any point than these values.

===================================================================

1991 - 2020 daily and cumulative C.E.T. values

01 _____ 13.0 _ 13.0 ________ 11 ____ 12.1 _ 12.0 ________ 21 _____ 9.9 _ 11.3 

02 _____ 12.2 _ 12.6 ________ 12 ____ 11.7 _ 12.0 ________ 22 ____ 10.1 _ 11.2

03 _____ 12.2 _ 12.5 ________ 13 ____ 11.3 _ 11.9 ________ 23 ____ 10.3 _ 11.2

04 _____ 11.8 _ 12.3 ________ 14 ____ 10.9 _ 11.9 ________ 24 ____ 10.3 _ 11.2

05 _____ 11.7 _ 12.2 ________ 15 ____ 10.8 _ 11.8 ________ 25 _____ 9.8 _ 11.1

06 _____ 11.5 _ 12.1 ________ 16 ____ 10.8 _ 11.7 ________ 26 _____ 9.8 _ 11.1

07 _____ 11.5 _ 12.0 ________ 17 ____ 10.3 _ 11.6 ________ 27 _____ 9.7 _ 11.0

08 _____ 12.0 _ 12.0 ________ 18 ____ 10.0 _ 11.5 ________ 28 _____ 9.7 _ 11.0

09 _____ 11.8 _ 12.0 ________ 19 _____ 9.9 _ 11.5 ________ 29 _____ 9.2 _ 10.9

10 _____ 12.2 _ 12.0 ________ 20 _____ 9.7 _ 11.4 ________ 30 _____ 9.4 _ 10.9

_________________________________________________________ 31 _____ 9.7 _ 10.8

============================================================

Note: the 29th is the coldest day of the month in both 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 and also

for the all-time record lows (0.3 in 1895) and completes the set with the lowest running CET

value of the daily data period (1817 = 6.2, ended 6.4)

[Roger J Smith]

There was no update for 1st October for the CET, a look at the data suggests a daily mean around 13.5, today looks to be around 14, so we're off to a relatively warm start (to be confirmed though). It should stay relatively mild to mid-week then slightly cooler. Looking ahead the GFS guidance would get the current average to about 12.5 after ten more days, some quite cold readings shown around days 14-15, otherwise staying in that range, so possibly a rough estimate of 11 to 11.5 by 17th. 

The EWP likely started off with about 3 mm on the 1st with a streak of heavy rain only catching Cornwall and south Devon. It then builds up rather gradually to a grid average that might be as low as 30 mm by 17th, as parts of southeast England are expected to remain quite dry. It's a much wetter pattern further north, including north Wales and northwest England, but especially wet in northern parts of Ireland and western Scotland (100-150 mm amounts there). 

The signal is there for a persistent southwest flow and I have to wonder if the GFS is underplaying warmth later on, as this kind of pattern can strengthen with tropical remnants entering the flow. But then I'm probably hoping for warmth more than most. 

[richie3846]

12 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

There was no update for 1st October for the CET, a look at the data suggests a daily mean around 13.5, today looks to be around 14, so we're off to a relatively warm start (to be confirmed though). It should stay relatively mild to mid-week then slightly cooler. Looking ahead the GFS guidance would get the current average to about 12.5 after ten more days, some quite cold readings shown around days 14-15, otherwise staying in that range, so possibly a rough estimate of 11 to 11.5 by 17th. 

The EWP likely started off with about 3 mm on the 1st with a streak of heavy rain only catching Cornwall and south Devon. It then builds up rather gradually to a grid average that might be as low as 30 mm by 17th, as parts of southeast England are expected to remain quite dry. It's a much wetter pattern further north, including north Wales and northwest England, but especially wet in northern parts of Ireland and western Scotland (100-150 mm amounts there). 

The signal is there for a persistent southwest flow and I have to wonder if the GFS is underplaying warmth later on, as this kind of pattern can strengthen with tropical remnants entering the flow. But then I'm probably hoping for warmth more than most. 

Your comments about underplayed warmth reflect the trends of the last decade. October seems to have become a month where warmth is accentuated with moist tropical flows. Notably the records set on Halloween (23.6c?) Somewhere around Cheltenham area I believe. This isn't the only example of these warm flows in recent times. New records have been set for the first couple days of November in these moist tropical setups which seem to be more prevalent in late October and early November. I suspect these records could be broken again in the right conditions, with moist flows and ever increasing background warmth levels.

Edited October 2, 2022 by richie3846

[Summer Sun]

13.0c to the 3rd

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 4th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

13.5c to the 5th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.5C -1.0C below normal. Rainfall 12.7mm 15.3% of the monthly average.

[Faronstream]

On 02/10/2022 at 22:50, richie3846 said:

Your comments about underplayed warmth reflect the trends of the last decade. October seems to have become a month where warmth is accentuated with moist tropical flows. Notably the records set on Halloween (23.6c?) Somewhere around Cheltenham area I believe. This isn't the only example of these warm flows in recent times. New records have been set for the first couple days of November in these moist tropical setups which seem to be more prevalent in late October and early November. I suspect these records could be broken again in the right conditions, with moist flows and ever increasing background warmth levels.

Your comment has no support in the statistics for the last 22 octobers aka a little more than 2/3 of a climatic period, unusually warm octobers seems to have become less rare with the warmest ones in the 00's and a overall increase of just 0,05c.

[summer blizzard]

Worth remembering that the 71-10 figure was lower than the 61-90. That suggests that October (like August) probably saw increased warmth a few decades ago and we've moderated a bit since.

[LetItSnow!]

October is a bit of a strange one in that it saw a very big increase in temperature long before any other month. From the beginning of the C.E.T. records up until the first decade of the 20th century, 10+ Octobers were quite rare and then throughout the 20th century the average increased by about a degree.

[richie3846]

25 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Your comment has no support in the statistics for the last 22 octobers aka a little more than 2/3 of a climatic period, unusually warm octobers seems to have become less rare with the warmest ones in the 00's and a overall increase of just 0,05c.

Thanks for clarifying that, my judgement was evidently wrong. 

[Roger J Smith]

Richie, I think your comments were valid even if the October warming has been a bit muted very recently, the year with the warm Hallowe'en temperatures you mentioned was probably 2014 which has an outlier record high in the CET. In that graph provided you can see that October was substantially above normal from 2013 to 2018, and again in 2021. Certainly the interval from 2001 to 2006 produced three of the top Octobers for warmth. As to the early start for October warming relative to most other months, I can see that same trend in eastern North America where quite warm Octobers started to show up after about 1876, and plenty of daily records that were set then have held up. I suppose if the output of the arctic cold factory is going to diminish, the first signs of that might be early in the winter season broadly speaking, so that outbreaks in October might be weaker and fail to reach the mid-latitudes. There was a more notable warming trend for November starting later, in the CET record it doesn't really appear until well into the mid-20th century. Plenty of notably cold Novembers in the 1910s and 1920s decades. 

[Summer Sun]

13.4c to the 6th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.9C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall 12.9mm 15.6% of the monthly average.

October is one of those months which has shown very little change in 60 years. A change of 0.3C. 0.2C of that from 1981.

Edited October 7, 2022 by The PIT

[damianslaw]

May October do a September.. another very mild start to the month, shoukd see a gradual downturn days ahead. Like Sept, October is a rapidly cooling month even more so and a chilly last 10 days can make a big dint in the CET.

[Mapantz]

A toasty 15°C  average here.