Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 v GEM and UKMO:

Key at this point is the wedge of heights south Greenland / Iceland.  ECM is stronger, and wider than both.  I think the low will be sliding south on this one, even if it sucks in the feature to west of Ireland.  

Edited December 7, 2022 by Mike Poole

[JBMWeatherForever]

The GEM seems to be far more consistant than either the GFS or the ECM  recently, which both seem to be repeatedly flipped between different scenarios. Logically if it is more settled on a particular outcome then that is the most likely outcome, especially when other models cant make up their mind. Prolonged cold it is then !!!   

Edited December 7, 2022 by JBMWeatherForever

[Tim Bland]

13 minutes ago, MAF said:

To find the average of 19 and 20, divide the sum of quantities 39 by the total number of quantities 2:
=392
= 19.5
(19 + 20)2= 19.5

Hence,
19.5 is the average of 19 and 20.

hope that helps :D 

But we aren’t looking for an average number we are looking for an average outcome. When you blend all the possible synoptic scenarios the outcome of the “mean” will be none of them.   Your calculation could work in a more certain scenario eg the minimum temp in London tonight …you could take the mean temp from the perturbations and it would close but looking at a massive envelope of  possible Synoptics in a weeks time with such uncertainty it doesn’t really work

[Trom]

15 minutes ago, MAF said:

To find the average of 19 and 20, divide the sum of quantities 39 by the total number of quantities 2:
=392
= 19.5
(19 + 20)2= 19.5

Hence,
19.5 is the average of 19 and 20.

hope that helps :D 

You get 78 if you forget the division sign!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Synoptically fine, but the 0c isotherm will get pretty close to the south here.

   
 

The Scandi trough should reform in its full glory from here as the low moves east and the next system moves down from the north.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144:

As expected, stronger heights south Greenland persisting, low going under, cold persists, and another hemisphere splitter run beckons, with the entire vortex waiting to drop on the Asian side…

Edited December 7, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

00z Vs 12z for Monday night..looking similar ….

[Weathizard]

[Tim Bland]

Front makes it into the south west then turns back and retreats west…

[Stuie]

Don`t know what to make of this chart, Greeny high stronger than ever but a heck of LP to the east and that stupid low out west is in quicksand...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

corking set of GEFS so far - a screaming North-Easterly is far from out the question -

here she comes.

-12c a few hundred miles away from Britain.

Edited December 7, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[Snowy L]

Not much snow in the ECM but it looks great for locking the cold in.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Low with precip stalling out west & 2010 style easterly missing us to the north again.. how unlucky can you get.

Surely with cold air in place for that length of time we would drive some snow in eventually.

[radiohead]

Low doesn't slide, instead stalls and dumps heavy snow over SW Ireland and then the cold air sweeps back in from the east by 168, -9 uppers.

[Cheshire Freeze]

We don’t want that LP just swirling away to our SW. It needs to feed energy E to encourage the cold down from the NE.

[MAF]

10 minutes ago, Trom said:

You get 78 if you forget the division sign!!

 ho hum  

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We don’t want that LP just swirling away to our SW. It needs to feed energy E to encourage the cold down from the NE.

It is shifting east the 24 hour jumps are making it a bit confusing, but between 144 and 168 the secondary low has moved into Genoa and the main one is about to go under imo.

 

Edit: ECM is the Met Office 70% scenario at t192.

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Snowy L

[mountsbaysnow]

Well it would a refreshing change for us in West Cornwall to stand a chance of even seeing some snow. 

[Tim Bland]

It’s a boom for cold but a bust for snow…unless you are in Southern Ireland… don’t think this is the end of it though, still a massive envelope and all to play for 

[NewEra21]

Sacrifice the snow for now and lock in the cold. Love this run and would take it all day long!

[Snowman.]

Very cold

  

 

 

[ICE COLD]

T192 freezing  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Sorry folks gonna have to get the booms out here...this is bloody awesome 

Hey folks anyone else noticed that some are saying yeh its real cold but not gr8 for snow! Last night it was yeh there's a big snow risk but the cold gets pushed back to easily! Better to get the cold locked in for a sustained period first! Chances will come along for sure. And there's still a snow risk next week either way.

You just cant win at times on this thread! Thats why i love it

Edited December 7, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

It is shifting east the 24 hour jumps are making it a bit confusing, but between 144 and 168 the secondary low has moved into Genoa and the main one is about to go under imo.

Yep, continues to slide, way south though, T192:

Edited December 7, 2022 by Mike Poole

[January Snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s a boom for cold but a bust for snow…unless you are in Southern Ireland… don’t think this is the end of it though, still a massive envelope and all to play for 

Looks fine to me lol