Northwest Weather Discussion

[MikeUpjohn]

15 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

There are different variables that contribute to the colour of lightning. The temperature of the bolt, humidity, concentration of dust and ice particles and the distance of the bolt from the eye. White lightning is by far the hottest and most powerful strike.

Thanks for this! Really useful ta

[Chris.R]

24.9°C here now still with prolonged sunny intervals. That's higher than even the WRF predicted which often over estimates and that predicts 1800 J CAPE in a couple of hours

[weatherobsuk]

Argh i'm out of 'like' options today for the forums after using them all up overnight  but i'm still here, patiently waiting after finally getting some much needed kip at 5am. It feels ripe outside for rapid instability to occur once again after 3pm with the models forecasting the peak time to be at around 5pm for us in the NW when the convective line will be at it's most potent before turning into a MCS further to the north. 

Depending where/when and what cloud heights will be, I don't think there'll be much travelling needed to catch anything within the convective line later on.

[Turquoise]

a lot of cells breaking out now from North London up to the Midlands...all supposed to join up into a MCS later as it moves north and merges

[Chris.R]

Looking at WRF wind vectors I see they are backed a bit more than I expected so flow looks about 140–160° veering with height. All east of South accept 500 mb vector.
I need to be looking around Warrington/crewe.

[Scuba steve]

Things seem to be kicking off in the midlands 

[Chris.R]

Stronger cells will move further to the right than weaker cells as those with higher tops will  be more influenced by the stronger veering winds aloft.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Chris.R

[Turquoise]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Stronger cells will move further to the right than weaker cells what is those with higher tops will  be more influenced by the stronger veering winds aloft.

Hard to tell what diresction they are moving in, some look NNW, some NNE

[Day 10]

[Maz]

57 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

Hard to tell what diresction they are moving in, some look NNW, some NNE

NNW is the direction for those being steered by nearer surface flow.  NNE when they get tall and they are steered by upper flow.  They should also move faster  in the upper flow too.  
 

That is the “wind sheer”, as nicely described in one of the recent MetO videos, that can lead to continued development and large thunderstorms.

Somewhere from a swathe from say central Wales to Cambridge and northward, could see such development, maybe NW England, we will see….

[Chris.R]

Something just kicked off 30 km to my south. Perfect position for me

[Turquoise]

7 minutes ago, Maz said:

NNW is the direction for those being steered by nearer surface flow.  NNE when they get tall and they are steered by upper flow.  They should also move faster  in the upper flow too.  
 

That is the “wind sheer”, as nicely described in one of the recent MetO videos, that can lead to continued development and large thunderstorms.

Somewhere from a swathe from say central Wales to Cambridge and northward, could see such development, maybe NW England, we will see….

yea that would make sense, thanks for explaining

[severe snowstorm]

Had a heavy shower a few minutes ago, no thunder though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wow is this how it’s going to pan out? Great big gap of nothingness downwind over Shropshire. Great.

[carl1980]

Strikes south of Chester 

[Turquoise]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Wow is this how it’s going to pan out? Great big gap of nothingness downwind over Shropshire. Great.

Yep, the only place in the country that hasnt got any action...and its us.

[carl1980]

Thunder heard to my south

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, carl1980 said:

@Weather-history any lightning from last night on your time lapse?

Yes there was

 

[carl1980]

Rain now just the one rumble so far

[severe snowstorm]

Rumble of thunder. Probably from the Chester cell. Really hope things can spark off in that large gap to the South. Still plenty of time yet.

[carl1980]

Close strike loud thunder 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, severe snowstorm said:

Rumble of thunder. Probably from the Chester cell. Really hope things can spark off in that large gap to the South. Still plenty of time yet.

Well I have my doubts. If it doesn’t develop then we’re done.

Ironic that the gap is where the hi res models showed things kicking off on their updates yesterday.

[Chris.R]

Thought I just heard thunder then

[carl1980]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Thought I just heard thunder then

Kicked off around here

[Turquoise]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Well I have my doubts. If it doesn’t develop then we’re done.

Ironic that the gap is where the hi res models showed things kicking off on their updates yesterday.

a cell has just developed over Church Stretton....you might be in luck