Northwest Weather Discussion

[I Cumbria Marra I]

39 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think in terms of best chance for snowfall, it has to be tonight and into the morning, we got the surface cold, the 850hpa will be marginally colder overnight than it is tomorrow night and if these showers are around during daylight hours tomorrow, with increased cloud cover, its going to be difficult to drop the temperatures to get on the right side of marginal. This is especially the case for the usual snow starved coastal parts of the region. Maybe more inland parts like Manchester might be okay and of course higher ground even at modest heights should be ok the right side of marginal aslong as the precipitation is there!

Good chance Egremont might actually get some snowfall by the morning which is no more than Cumbria Marra deserves.

Ive just signed back in to appreciate this comment, surprised anyone still remembers me, ive been looking through this thread recently though because of the chance of snow, dont comment much or look as much now though because of a busy life style but any chance of snow and ill try and have a look through this thread, but thanks you pal i appreciate it , i hope we all get some snow out of this cold spell, pretty decent chance of seeing snow falling for me i think which i would be happy about, would be absolutely buzzing if i seen any laying snow,so even though i dont comment as much im still lurking when theres a cold spell because im still obsessed with snow and i hope everyones doing ok. 

[weatherobsuk]

-4.2'c in Buxton this early morning and it feels like it too since I left the house at 9:30pm on the hunt for Aurora's, only managed a 10 minute 'window' of opportunity at this latitude although they were fairly spectacular away from any city lights and in tree shade avoiding any Moonlight. Plenty of other folks also to be seen at Magpie Mine with the same idea.

[loubie_4]

Got some freezing fog right now and a very hard frost. White outside. Also looks like we have some precipitation inbound from the Irish Sea! 

[severe snowstorm]

-5.2C. Even colder than last night.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Latest Rad Cumbrian ppn pushing in. 
 

[Weather-history]

-6.5°C

ECM snow depth charts on the hype

[Iceaxecrampon]

Festive sleet incoming……

 

 

[Jackski4]

12 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Festive sleet incoming……

 

 

That should turn to snow as it hits the colder air. Also, I’d bank that ECM run in a heartbeat for tonight and tomorrow 

[Chris.R]

Met text forecast is completely at odds with WRF which is anything but mainly dry  or "a few wintery showers". 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Met text forecast is completely at odds with WRF which is anything but mainly dry  or "a few wintery showers". 

The BBC and met office have got this so wrong! Have you seen this mornings graphics on breakfast? Appalling, much further south than the PPN is predicted to be.

[Iceaxecrampon]

23 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

That should turn to snow as it hits the colder air. Also, I’d bank that ECM run in a heartbeat for tonight and tomorrow 

Your not familiar with the Fylde lol. 
I’ll let you know. 

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

The BBC and met office have got this so wrong! Have you seen this mornings graphics on breakfast? Appalling, much further south than the PPN is predicted to be.

I don't even bother looking what they have to say anymore... haven't for years... except the Met text forecast sometimes for its entertainment value. Prefer to stick to High-Rez WRF and nowcosting

Edited December 2, 2023 by Chris.R

[Iceaxecrampon]

Big echo going Cumbria way. Moist SW flow picking up from Irish Sea. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

[Joe Snow]

12 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Met text forecast is completely at odds with WRF which is anything but mainly dry  or "a few wintery showers". 

Not a comparable event by any means but the 5th Jan 2010 event on the 4th Jan was under forecasted as  ‘a few wintry showers’ the MO then ended up putting out a flash severe weather warning for heavy snow in the early hours and Manchester ended up with nearly a ft of snow!  
 

Back to the here and now lots to watch tonight - I would say a conservative 2-5cm possible if sleet/ snow takes hold as forecast I’ve lived in the NW long enough though to expect nothing and you won’t be disappointed!  

Edited December 2, 2023 by Joe Snow

[Rob 79812010]

18 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Met text forecast is completely at odds with WRF which is anything but mainly dry  or "a few wintery showers". 

Could be a good snowfall tonight. TBH anything above 2cm is a good one for Manc. Camera at the ready 

[Osca31]

Sleet fest!!!!

[Rob 79812010]

12 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

Not a comparable event by any means but the 5th Jan 2010 event on the 4th Jan was under forecasted as  ‘a few wintry showers’ the MO then ended up putting out a flash severe weather warning for heavy snow in the early hours and Manchester ended up with nearly a ft of snow!  
 

Back to the here and now lots to watch tonight - I would say a conservative 2-5cm possible if sleet/ snow takes hold as forecast I’ve lived in the NW long enough though to expect nothing and you won’t be disappointed!  

Yes remember 2010 forecasts. Best snowfall in my 60 years in s manc. Think it slightly deeper than 79

[Chris.R]

This has the potential to be good... we just have to be careful of marginality later.

The great thing about these ocean effect influenced set ups is you never know quite what will happen… And what does happen tends to be more precip than expected.

[Rob 79812010]

10 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

This has the potential to be good... we just have to be careful of marginality later.

The great thing about these ocean effect influenced set ups is you never know quite what will happen… And what does happen tends to be more precip than expected.

Yeah, they're good ones sometimes for NW. I'd be surprised but happy if we got 5cm. Thinking maybe 2 or 3. 

[Joe Snow]

2 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Yes remember 2010 forecasts. Best snowfall in my 60 years in s manc. Think it slightly deeper than 79

Yeah Gtr Manchester, N Cheshire, Peaks & Pennines were plastered by that 5th Jan event. 

Merseyside and the Wirral also did well but with perhaps not quite as deep snow. Here in South Cheshire we were just a bit too south of the heaviest band of snow showers but still managed 5-10cm of the white stuff. 
 

Not comparable like I say but fingers crossed for tonight 2-7cm if all goes to plan  

[Kasim Awan]

Another shift North on 00z. No Met Warning?

[Jackski4]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Another shift North on 00z. No Met Warning?

They add / update warnings about 11AM no? I would think there should be a warning.

[Rob 79812010]

9 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

Yeah Gtr Manchester, N Cheshire, Peaks & Pennines were plastered by that 5th Jan event. 

Merseyside and the Wirral also did well but with perhaps not quite as deep snow. Here in South Cheshire we were just a bit too south of the heaviest band of snow showers but still managed 5-10cm of the white stuff. 
 

Not comparable like I say but fingers crossed for tonight 2-7cm if all goes to plan  

Hope the snow shadow behaves for where I am. Stillnhetting my head round that one. Does that affect you guys at all??

[Day 10]

15 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I don't even bother looking what they have to say anymore... haven't for years... except the Met text forecast sometimes for its entertainment value. Prefer to stick to High-Rez WRF and nowcosting

Agree mate, that are awful. They also seem very confident of milder air blasting through midweek, I wouldn't be so sure of that.

Really busy with work today but hopefully post more later, charts etc.

Possible flurries today, enjoy whoever gets them