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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

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in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

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Posted by Paul,

We have brand new  and (I think) unique thing to introduce to this thread - the community crowdsourced model highlights thread. The new thread will be comprised of posts which will be copied from here, based on the number of 'insightful' reactions the post has been given. (We'll be fine tuning the actual number it takes to trigger over time, so this will change). So, please use that reaction when you see a post you think should go over to the highlights thread. Once posts hit the threshold

Introducing the model highlights thread

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
2 hours ago, Mucka said:

 

Icon and GEM are cannon fodder and more likely to confuse than enlighten.

No they are not. Don’t forget Ian Fergusson’s recent tweet which suggested he rated ICON and GEM more than the GFS!

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MattH
MattH

Morning... A troublesome time to be a forecaster, especially for next week, but just quoting the following from the post a few days ahead and, overall, this remains true, currently and looking ah

MattH
MattH

Just a quick one, but there is cross-model agreement on the amplification once again into early next week, but what is lacking is consistency, so despite some of the usual silly posts in here, rest as

MattH
MattH

The 'problem' that NWP will have looking ahead is that we continue to be within a hemispheric regime that is not 'normal'. I used the words 'usual' and 'unusual' the other day in a post, the usual set

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LetItSnow Accomplished

LetItSnow

Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
Posted
1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

No they are not. Don’t forget Ian Fergusson’s recent tweet which suggested he rated ICON and GEM more than the GFS!

GEM has been performing quite well in recent times. I’d definitely put it up there with the big guns. It’s sniffed out quite a few weather patterns when other models were flipping more than burgers on a grill. 

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Row w Community Regular

Row w

Posted
  • Location: Telford
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, thunderstorms and snowy or frosty winters
  • Location: Telford
Posted

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Mapgfs looking like it wants to re introduce the cold around or just after christmas even if just for a short time before the pesky mild s/w flow breaks through again but at the moment i'll take anything as i'm already missing the seasonal feel of last week

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

Locking this now - I'm going to split the last handful of posts over into a fresh thread.

New thread here:

 

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