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Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

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Posted

Please continue here and as ever please only discuss the models in this thread.

Access to the main models:

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WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Check the latest weather charts and data on Netweather

For more general chat - please use the winter chat, ramps and moan thread:

As ever please keep it friendly and respectful in this thread. As with any other part of the community, if we can keep with these principles, it'll be a better place to spend time for everyone. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
Posted (edited)

Well I have to confess to being quite disappointed by the 06z GFS ensembles. I thought the operational would be out on a limb - it is - but I'd expected a lot more colder members.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

I don't like the trend in that set of ensembles and we could do with seeing it bucked in the next few runs.

Fortunately the UKMO and to a slightly lesser extent the ECM are still very much in the cold zone. The next 24-48 hours of model outputs could be fairly decisive one way or t'other.

Edited by Mark Smithy
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello, if I recall you were posting similar a few days back for day 10 then - that has since been pushed back. 2 things I guess 🙂

Firstly and mild incursion could be pushes backed.

secondly - we are just about the start a really cold period and in the game for some surprises 🙂  the realility is we are small island next to warm ocean and will also be exposed to milder as per the british climate. Enjoy the moment, being disappointed on what some number crunching is spitting out today for 10 days time will not change the outcome 🙂

 

12Z rolling - hoping Icon kicks us off and builds upons its nice slide 120 up to 180.

 

 

Seeing as the monster European High was forecast way back on 21st Nov, I'd say nothing wrong at all looking in FI for trends. That's why ensemble & model comparison is so important and widely evidenced by most on this superb thread.

Watching evolutions count down & the inevitable changes as T0 approaches is what makes this place an excellent education tool 👍

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

The dynamical recovery of the AO probably has a lot to do with the unstable inertia that has propped up the -VE AO state losing it's support with a loss of AAM and therefore the Eddy's 'retreating' across the Northern Hemisphere battlefield as the Rossby energy transfer retreats to being mostly across the tropics with a flatter Atlantic to probably come into place by early next year. Signs that we could get an increase again in January but for now I'd treat it as signs.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Could contain: Chart, Line Chart

The GWO supporting my view of the jet coming into line with the thermal wave northward transfer (of the jet momentum so the jet reverts back to normal) and eventual pattern flip into circumglobal ridges and it's been a general trend recently. Circumglobal ridges linked with Atlantic influence and mild and wet.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

So beyond Christmas things may return back to normal with the occasional colder chance but I keep saying it...

Take this chance on the face of it and it is the best early Winter chance since 2010, as simple as that, we've still got till Christmas before any chance of severe cold setting in and even beyond then we don't know for sure that we won't get helpful background influences.

Could be a stupid question, but does the ec46 factor in these global drivers? Would you now expect it in further updates to lose its blocking signal for early January?

Well, in any case, let's hope we can get a SSW somehow. I want a 1962/63 winter! You are right though we should just enjoy what is currently on offer and hope for the best in terms of getting a decent snow event at some point before the Atlantic does take over.

Edited by Bricriu
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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors
the increased strength allows a channel low to blow up dragging a screaming easterly across England 

That surely has to be quite a snowy chart were it to verify?!

Edited by Kentish Snowman in Yorks
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted
1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

That surely has to be quite a snowy chart were it to verify?!

Accumulation so far on the run, however I have seen people post in recent days Icon struggles with this. Not sure how true .

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Atlas, Diagram, Land

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

That surely had to be quite a snowy chart were it to verify?!

You can follow the cold front:

animrqx3.gif

Just too far south for even the coastal regions. Total precipitation remains sparse up to D8.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

That surely has to be quite a snowy chart were it to verify?!

Well the raw data says that ne France and Belgium 

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

Icon so close to delivering a bullseye for the south…

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