Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Community Team]

Please continue here and as ever please only discuss the models in this thread.

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[Paul]

We have brand new  and (I think) unique thing to introduce to this thread - the community crowdsourced model highlights thread.

The new thread will be comprised of posts which will be copied from here, based on the number of 'insightful' reactions the post has been given. (We'll be fine tuning the actual number it takes to trigger over time, so this will change). So, please use that reaction when you see a post you think should go over to the highlights thread. Once posts hit the threshold of insightful reactions, they'll be automatically copied over to the new thread.

Hopefully that thread will then be a great place to go for a more concise view of the models, and a really good way to keep those most insightful posts front and centre for a little longer than they may be in here.

If you're wondering - this one is the insightful reaction:

[Battleground Snow]

I can see what you mean about the ECM control 06z run @bluearmy

Also noting we may start to see attempts at another Greenland cut off high in the 144-192 period on future model runs

[Mark Smithy]

Well I have to confess to being quite disappointed by the 06z GFS ensembles. I thought the operational would be out on a limb - it is - but I'd expected a lot more colder members.

I don't like the trend in that set of ensembles and we could do with seeing it bucked in the next few runs.

Fortunately the UKMO and to a slightly lesser extent the ECM are still very much in the cold zone. The next 24-48 hours of model outputs could be fairly decisive one way or t'other.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[geordiekev]

Just a gentle reminder every cold spell had mild incursions, the jet stream is like a skipping rope producing a wave. Personally can't see the jet stream moving to position where the peak waves reach meridian where we have blowtorch SWs anytime soon, just a waning & waxing of deep cold.

Even 62/63 had its less cold sectors & propagated further blocks  (notice the lack of deep blues throughout Dec, Jan) Enjoy the ride

Edited December 8, 2022 by geordiekev
Tylo

[mushymanrob]

6 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Well I have to confess to being quite disappointed by the 06z GFS ensembles. I thought the operational would be out on a limb - it is - but I'd expected a lot more colder members.

I don't like the trend in that set of ensembles and we could do with seeing it bucked in the next few runs.

Fortunately the UKMO and to a slightly lesser extent the ECM are still very much in the cold zone. The next 24-48 hours of model outputs could be fairly decisive one way or t'other.

For someone who insists we cant take anything past t168 seriously, you dont half post a lot from beyond t168 to "prove" a point.... now thats fine, we all do it, just make up your mind

and within t168, we have the coldest pre-christmas spell since 2010, with the biggest threat/promise of snow  that we dont often get through the whole winter. There may be signs of "less cold" but theres no concrete evidence of a pattern change to mild..

[TSNWK]

14 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Well I have to confess to being quite disappointed by the 06z GFS ensembles. I thought the operational would be out on a limb - it is - but I'd expected a lot more colder members.

I don't like the trend in that set of ensembles and we could do with seeing it bucked in the next few runs.

Fortunately the UKMO and to a slightly lesser extent the ECM are still very much in the cold zone. The next 24-48 hours of model outputs could be fairly decisive one way or t'other.

Hello, if I recall you were posting similar a few days back for day 10 then - that has since been pushed back. 2 things I guess

Firstly and mild incursion could be pushes backed.

secondly - we are just about the start a really cold period and in the game for some surprises   the realility is we are small island next to warm ocean and will also be exposed to milder as per the british climate. Enjoy the moment, being disappointed on what some number crunching is spitting out today for 10 days time will not change the outcome

 

12Z rolling - hoping Icon kicks us off and builds upons its nice slide 120 up to 180.

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

The dynamical recovery of the AO probably has a lot to do with the unstable inertia that has propped up the -VE AO state losing it's support with a loss of AAM and therefore the Eddy's 'retreating' across the Northern Hemisphere battlefield as the Rossby energy transfer retreats to being mostly across the tropics with a flatter Atlantic to probably come into place by early next year. Signs that we could get an increase again in January but for now I'd treat it as signs.

The GWO supporting my view of the jet coming into line with the thermal wave northward transfer (of the jet momentum so the jet reverts back to normal) and eventual pattern flip into circumglobal ridges and it's been a general trend recently. Circumglobal ridges linked with Atlantic influence and mild and wet.

So beyond Christmas things may return back to normal with the occasional colder chance but I keep saying it...

Take this chance on the face of it and it is the best early Winter chance since 2010, as simple as that, we've still got till Christmas before any chance of severe cold setting in goes and even beyond then we don't know for sure that we won't get helpful background influences.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Day 10]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

For someone who insists we cant take anything past t168 seriously, you dont half post a lot from beyond t168 to "prove" a point.... now thats fine, we all do it, just make up your mind

and within t168, we have the coldest pre-christmas spell since 2010, with the biggest threat/promise of snow  that we dont often get through the whole winter. There may be signs of "less cold" but theres no concrete evidence of a pattern change to mild..

Couldn't have put it better myself, some keep saying things are trending milder, however, if that was the case why is that 'trend' STILL starting at Day 7?

My thoughts from the other day have not changed, every time the output moves into a more reliable timeframe then the cold keeps winning out. FI is pretty short in my view.

A great start to Winter and fascinating to watch it all play out.

0z ECM t0, wonderful chart!

[geordiekev]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello, if I recall you were posting similar a few days back for day 10 then - that has since been pushed back. 2 things I guess

Firstly and mild incursion could be pushes backed.

secondly - we are just about the start a really cold period and in the game for some surprises   the realility is we are small island next to warm ocean and will also be exposed to milder as per the british climate. Enjoy the moment, being disappointed on what some number crunching is spitting out today for 10 days time will not change the outcome

 

12Z rolling - hoping Icon kicks us off and builds upons its nice slide 120 up to 180.

 

 

Seeing as the monster European High was forecast way back on 21st Nov, I'd say nothing wrong at all looking in FI for trends. That's why ensemble & model comparison is so important and widely evidenced by most on this superb thread.

Watching evolutions count down & the inevitable changes as T0 approaches is what makes this place an excellent education tool

[Bricriu]

14 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

The dynamical recovery of the AO probably has a lot to do with the unstable inertia that has propped up the -VE AO state losing it's support with a loss of AAM and therefore the Eddy's 'retreating' across the Northern Hemisphere battlefield as the Rossby energy transfer retreats to being mostly across the tropics with a flatter Atlantic to probably come into place by early next year. Signs that we could get an increase again in January but for now I'd treat it as signs.

The GWO supporting my view of the jet coming into line with the thermal wave northward transfer (of the jet momentum so the jet reverts back to normal) and eventual pattern flip into circumglobal ridges and it's been a general trend recently. Circumglobal ridges linked with Atlantic influence and mild and wet.

So beyond Christmas things may return back to normal with the occasional colder chance but I keep saying it...

Take this chance on the face of it and it is the best early Winter chance since 2010, as simple as that, we've still got till Christmas before any chance of severe cold setting in and even beyond then we don't know for sure that we won't get helpful background influences.

Could be a stupid question, but does the ec46 factor in these global drivers? Would you now expect it in further updates to lose its blocking signal for early January?

Well, in any case, let's hope we can get a SSW somehow. I want a 1962/63 winter! You are right though we should just enjoy what is currently on offer and hope for the best in terms of getting a decent snow event at some point before the Atlantic does take over.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Bricriu

[frosty ground]

high pressure is much stronger on this run from the icon

[ICE COLD]

Icon looks decent a T144

[frosty ground]

the increased strength allows a channel low to blow up dragging a screaming easterly across England 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Icon looks decent a T144

Icon looking excellent at , much colder and following ecm control run with ridging into greenland

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon looking excellent at , much colder and following ecm control run with ridging into greenland

It’s getting even better T168

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

the increased strength allows a channel low to blow up dragging a screaming easterly across England 

That surely has to be quite a snowy chart were it to verify?!

Edited December 8, 2022 by Kentish Snowman in Yorks

[TSNWK]

Deal or no deal  

do we take the ICON 12z Box or shall we play another round

Best sub 7 day for me so far this season.. vey tempted to bank.

Edited December 8, 2022 by TSNWK

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

That surely has to be quite a snowy chart were it to verify?!

Accumulation so far on the run, however I have seen people post in recent days Icon struggles with this. Not sure how true .

[ICE COLD]

And finishes like this at T180 .

Great start!!!!! 

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

That surely had to be quite a snowy chart were it to verify?!

You can follow the cold front:

Just too far south for even the coastal regions. Total precipitation remains sparse up to D8.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

That surely has to be quite a snowy chart were it to verify?!

Well the raw data says that ne France and Belgium 

[mulzy]

Icon so close to delivering a bullseye for the south…

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I like this Icon run...its cold,and Low pressure towards the East/SE is so close which would entail some wintry conditions could pop up in places! The Vortex remains firmly away from its usual home and we seem to have a segment dropping down towards the NE.

Regarding met update...uncertainty remains...could be rain..could be snow...could be strong Setly winds...could be Frost...temps may recover towards the South later...yep there must be a decent chance that one of those outcomes will play out

Edited December 8, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[booferking]

To me it looks like we are going for a repeat of what we have now for next week but even better with lower thickness lower 850s and more precipitation.