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Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

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Posted

For me the trend of the last day or so is clear - the outlook is increasingly cold for the foreseeable - the question is whether the cold weather will go through to Christmas.  If more of a wind picks up then the risk of snow showers feeding inland will increase.  The low to the southwest next week looks increasingly likely to stay south so the cold is here to stay well into the second half of the month.

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
34 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

The dynamical recovery of the AO probably has a lot to do with the unstable inertia that has propped up the -VE AO state losing it's support with a loss of AAM and therefore the Eddy's 'retreating' across the Northern Hemisphere battlefield as the Rossby energy transfer retreats to being mostly across the tropics with a flatter Atlantic to probably come into place by early next year. Signs that we could get an increase again in January but for now I'd treat it as signs.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Could contain: Chart, Line Chart

The GWO supporting my view of the jet coming into line with the thermal wave northward transfer (of the jet momentum so the jet reverts back to normal) and eventual pattern flip into circumglobal ridges and it's been a general trend recently. Circumglobal ridges linked with Atlantic influence and mild and wet.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

So beyond Christmas things may return back to normal with the occasional colder chance but I keep saying it...

Take this chance on the face of it and it is the best early Winter chance since 2010, as simple as that, we've still got till Christmas before any chance of severe cold setting in goes and even beyond then we don't know for sure that we won't get helpful background influences.

Do you not see a possible recurring pattern in January at the moment then EE?

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

You would thing that there would be a little more convection on that ICON but he ho. It’s so far and models struggle with these things. 

Edited by Snowman.
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Do you not see a possible recurring pattern in January at the moment then EE?

It's way too early to tell but I suppose it's possible, patterns do tend to repeat and there is the early signal for it but right now it's still a small signal. I'm being wary of calling either way as we would the MJO repeating pattern as an early signal for that and I simply wouldn't know yet. Its a possibility that we could be stuck in a consistent -VE AAM but it's also a possibility that we see a re-transferring of thermal states back to a +VE AAM as the AAM is still fairly nuetral either way so little MJO variations can have a big difference. I'll research more when I get home from school though 👍.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Gfs 12z has several differences by day 5 to the 06z. the next few frames will reveal if it’s closer to the ec and U.K. 00z 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Gfs 12z has several differences by day 5 to the 06z. the next few frames will reveal if it’s closer to the ec and U.K. 00z 

 

Just about to say the same , possibly better looking for a snow event 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
Posted

What with the P.V on Holiday for the foreseeable and Low Pressure systems bowling along on top of the Jet, it’s only a matter of time before a convective Easterly/North Easterly sets up. Difficult to call a specific Day of course. Possibly some time towards the back end of next Week. Enjoy it, whatever it does👍
 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Ukmo 120 

 

C0DD6F2D-91A9-408C-A8D5-D5092EDCE704.gif

B517DCA7-564F-45DE-A450-CC30B6C4B270.gif

Edited by Mark wheeler
Wrong 850 chart, now correct
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Ukmo 120 

88340615-BAF8-48ED-B877-A4433AD2336B.gif

C0DD6F2D-91A9-408C-A8D5-D5092EDCE704.gif

That looks game on for the south too 

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Posted

Incredible synoptics again from the GFS at 150 hrs as we look to the north.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

-11850s into Scotland at T168 on the gfs 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

GEM shows how post d6 is fraught with forks in the synoptic pathways:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Gfs goes Norwegian shortwave at T180 

was wondering how the neg AO was going to drive things into week 2 but that feature will skew the evolution now 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

UKMO 144 

Looks like grazing the south coast again . Going to be interesting next 2 frames later .

36BD0DEC-D5F9-42E9-AE9A-D6AD9C899A7B.gif

8165366C-AFAA-489C-86D1-52C09B3BAF94.gif

Yep that looks like one heck of walloping for some areas.   

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, IDO said:

GEM shows how post d6 is fraught with forks in the synoptic pathways:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

 

That’s gfs op from yesterday!  (I mean it’s the same ) 

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
47 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well I for one aren’t looking for the breakdown….I’m looking for the bitterly cold easterly gales and drifting snow…..I think Icon says they are coming to a place called Surrey soon 

 

BFTP

Icon is cold and dry? This is total precipitation for the run? ….

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Atlas, Diagram, Land

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