Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Ali1977]

I’m loving the cold and frost but being a typical human being I generally want more, where’s the bloody snow if we have a 10 day freeze and I don’t see a flake of snow I’ll be rather cheesed off

[Battleground Snow]

If we can just shift that greenland high 400 miles east  we will be  in business here.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Summerstorm]

Anyone want a second run at a sliding low on the ECM? (JFF as its way out in FI)

Edited December 8, 2022 by Summerstorm

[MJB]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I’m loving the cold and frost but being a typical human being I generally want more, where’s the bloody snow if we have a 10 day freeze and I don’t see a flake of snow I’ll be rather cheesed off

Yep and in reality could be our one decent shot .......................just saying. 

[Captain Shortwave]

That trough, whilst not the best in terms of alignment, has plenty of little secondary lows that will bring spells of snow to parts of the U.K.

   

Edited December 8, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Ali1977]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I’m loving the cold and frost but being a typical human being I generally want more, where’s the bloody snow if we have a 10 day freeze and I don’t see a flake of snow I’ll be rather cheesed off

Saying that, the ECM at 216 looks great for prolonged cold with another slider chance coming in!! 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

If we can just shift that greenland high 400 miles east will be be in business here.

we need it to topple 

[seabreeze86]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I’m loving the cold and frost but being a typical human being I generally want more, where’s the bloody snow if we have a 10 day freeze and I don’t see a flake of snow I’ll be rather cheesed off

I really wouldn’t worry Ali snow will inevitably come if we keep the cold it’s not like it’s the so called faux cold we get under high pressure. Obviously some places will see more than others 

[radiohead]

Snow for pretty much everyone on the ECM tonight

[NewEra21]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Yep and in reality could be our one decent shot .......................just saying. 

I mean the possibility of a little snow has appeared at 72hrs for the SE on this ECM run, not that it's true.

But as long as we keep the cold in place, surprises will pop up. Today is still just the first real day of the cold spell UK wide.

[warrenb]

At 240 we are back to the how north will it go Low pressure.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Snow for pretty much everyone on the ECM tonight

22cms! shame pure fantasy

[Snowyowl9]

Greenland high holding firm for another week..

[goosey007]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This is as close as the low / precip gets to the south ….

So what we thinking then guys ….this low only going to go lower into France or any chance of corrections north …I’m up for high risk reward….a long shot now so it seems. Hard to get too excited with this cold spell without any snow chance presenting themselves on the charts/models ….it’s like going to the beach and there’s no sand …….that’s what we are al chasing right to buried in snow ? Or do we just want extended cold ice days ? Been a little confused reading this thread recently …if we are no careful this cold spell can come a go with no significant snow hence a period to forget ……hope not !!!!

[Bricriu]

Just now, radiohead said:

Snow for pretty much everyone on the ECM tonight

It's Just a pity that chart is not for seven days later than that date! Maybe  there will be a chart for the 24th or 25th showing something similar this time next week!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Now you kinda look at this 12z run at day 10 and go...hmmmm...im not liking those Heights towards the South one bit..with a sign of milder conditions trying to enter the SW....then you look at NH and the Vortex looks like its been through the shedder and then some!

So there's still much to like about that overall picture which still remains very fluent.

[blizzard81]

Is it really possible to go from a 1000 low to a 1020 high over Spain within the space of 24 hours?

[terrier]

So looking at the charts out to day 8/9 it’s looking bitterly cold. But a complete snooze fest if it’s snow you’re wanting. And I’m sure that is the holy grail for many. 

[joggs]

What has become very possible for me, over the last 36 hrs or so are the runs chucking out more west based scenarios. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by joggs

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, CoventryWeather said:

Is anyone looking at tonight's potential? Some heavy sleet and snow towards the North East - is that expected to move inland (and near to the West Mids for instance)?

 

But for modelling, some uncertainty still remains next week regarding the Azores low. Most likely solution now is for it to move into France, maybe with a spell of snow across the far south. Let's see what the ECM and ENS bring about. 

BBC Look North weather for Yorkshire just said a mixture of sleet and snow showers, possibly 1cm in places. 

 

Arpege showed the precipitation fizzling out as it came further inland...

[Bricriu]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Now you kinda look at this 12z run at day 10 and go...hmmmm...im not liking those Heights towards the South one bit..with a sign of milder conditions trying to enter the SW....then you look at NH and the Vortex looks like its been through the shedder and then some!

So there's still much to like about that overall picture which still remains very fluent.

I think many people at that stage may welcome an attempted breakdown if we remain largely dry up to that point. This has a feel of March 2013, the milder air might keep being pushed back. Even in the worst case scenario, given the entrenched cold , it surely would go out with a bang over a lot of the UK

Edited December 8, 2022 by Bricriu

[Ali1977]

Regards snow, the middle to end of next week still has plenty of snow about for most.

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Now you kinda look at this 12z run at day 10 and go...hmmmm...im not liking those Heights towards the South one bit..with a sign of milder conditions trying to enter the SW....then you look at NH and the Vortex looks like its been through the shedder and then some!

So there's still much to like about that overall picture which still remains very fluent.

Yep, still lots to like with that chart. My thoughts of a scandi high just in time for Xmas are still strong in my mind. Deep embedded cold over Scandi will assist in the creation of one. The more I look at that day 10 chart, the more I can see a proper scandi high just a few days later. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by blizzard81

[Scandinavian High.]

So are channel lows of the table now for south of uk .

[bryan629]

8 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It's Just a pity that chart is not for seven days later than that date! Maybe  there will be a chart for the 24th or 25th showing something similar this time next week!

Not sure about any snow on the 24th from this but -12 uppers into southern England on the 24th courtesy of the Gem control. 

The 12z Gem op was put on the naughty chair but the control you would want not kick out of bed !! 

I thought the ECM op until 168 pretty much followed it too .. worth a look 

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