Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Johnp]

Utter chaos in the models post 7 days!

I think FI is very early on at the moment. 

[joggs]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFS gets very messy and is on the verge of breaking the cold down for the UK

Yes. West based. Not good. Hope it doesn't carry on like this.

Edited December 8, 2022 by joggs

[IDO]

...go out with a BANG!

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFS gets very messy and is on the verge of breaking the cold down for the UK

Seems to be plenty of snowfall involved there. Hope the jigsaw pieces can align themselves to keep us in the cold. 

[warrenb]

3 minutes ago, joggs said:

Yes. West based. Not good. Hope it doesn't carry in like this.

GFS basically trying to phase every low into a day after tomorrow super storm.

Edited December 8, 2022 by warrenb

[frosty ground]

Just now, IDO said:

...go out with a BANG!

The setup is so complicated the cold might hang on….

[Lampostwatcher]

Just now, IDO said:

...go out with a BANG!

I'd take that if it was guaranteed after 10 days of cold dry and frost

[ICE COLD]

Snow next Friday anyone . The gfs looks a mess tho . 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep that looks like one heck of walloping for some areas.   

This is one hell of a walloping for large areas.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Long time out, but.....WOW !!

 

[Downburst]

9 minutes ago, IDO said:

GEM shows how post d6 is fraught with forks in the synoptic pathways:

 

Relax, I think that's a Canadian attempt at a Picasso? 

[Cold Winter Night]

GEM will have to spend the evening in the naughty chair, that's for sure.

[warrenb]

Just now, Cold Winter Night said:

GEM will have to spend the evening in the naughty chair, that's for sure.

Your classic 10 day haven't got a clue chart.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Snow next Friday anyone . The gfs looks a mess tho . 

Can everyone see the Triangle of Doom?

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

GEM will have to spend the evening in the naughty chair, that's for sure.

Note to self, never big up a model for consistency again

[Tim Bland]

I’d be happy with that! 12hrs of snow and then we can look for a reload

[irish1]

Maybe too far south for any big snow enough but certainly sliding.

[Mark wheeler]

Bank UKMO 156 and 168hrs 

[sheikhy]

Brilliant 12zs!gfs with extension of cold and ukmo even better at 168 hours!enjoy the freeze guys!!

[Wivenswold]

At which day are we calling "Shannon's Entropy"? 
I'd venture there's enough variance between the models at Day 4. The rest is FI. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Wivenswold

[frosty ground]

From certain defeat the GFS finds a way to stay cold and also very snowy 

[Snowy L]

Just now, frosty ground said:

From certain defeat the GFS finds a way to stay cold and also very snowy 

Yes Atlantic low looking slidey again.

[Mike Poole]

UKMO very good tonight, and actually a bit of consistency here, not dissimilar at all to its 0z run, here T168:

Add to that a decent ICON run for the south, and all is peachy.  GFS is a mess but largely stays cold.

Just don’t mention the GEM…

Edited December 8, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Downburst]

How can we go from this

To this

In 24 hours?

 

I expect FI is well and truly about 180 to 190 hrs on the GFS 12Z

[Tim Bland]

Snow from GFS wouldn’t melt quickly as cold air hangs on.    Genuine question . Where is the snow on the icon people keep mentioning ? It looks dry on the precip charts?