Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

It's certainly not a good update at all unless you want more wind and rain.

Or live on a big hill up North.

Hopefully an improvement over the next 48 hours ..

 

Read between the lines mate..Chance of colder more Wintry episodes were not there yesterday or previous days.. its a slow and gradual coming onboard I feel.. They won't over commit on cold and especially at range.

[northwestsnow]

Now @MATTWOLVES

I'm expecting a better update tomorriw

[Ali1977]

Big snow event, likely to head south too 

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Battleground snow at day 10 you’d think 

Yep, turning to snow away from coast 

[nick sussex]

The overall pattern past day 6 of displaced Euro high , Arctic high with the troughing sandwiched in between over the UK .

Shortwaves will run over the high to the west and dive se near the UK so some PM air looks in the offing.

The set up could produce some snow although marginal for most , and the depth of any shortwaves makes a difference .

 

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Don’t know why people care so much about the Exeter Update. It’s the ultimate fence sitting/ hedging bets option there is. 

Like I said there nickname "creosote" decent EC but nothing unusual for January, granted the bar has been lowered recently

Edited January 7, 2023 by swfc

[Northwest NI]

17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Big snow event, likely to head south too 

Is there no “snow/snow” option?

Edited January 7, 2023 by Northwest NI

[MJB]

1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

I can't see the GFS being right because we just don't get proper northerlies anymore. Then there is its poor performance since the upgrade to consider as well. 

That's an odd comment - So because we don't get regular Northerlies we will never get another 

[KTtom]

46 minutes ago, Alexis said:

The fact they made no mention of cold for December in late November says it all.

Really? Did you check facts before posting?

Saturday 3 Dec - Saturday 17 Dec

Confidence is low, although not unusually so. The more likely outcome is that conditions will become generally settled as high pressure moves towards or over the UK, bringing drier and calmer weather than of late, especially in the north. Temperatures are likely to trend from near average towards below average at times, with an increased risk of frost and fog. Any spells of more unsettled weather are more likely to be across the south of the UK, at least for a time, whilst northern areas remain drier. This scenario would increase the chance of snow across central areas, with perhaps wintry showers in parts of the north.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 18 Nov 2022

 

November 30th ....

5th-14th Dec

A cold northerly flow is likely to develop, drawing temperatures below average and feeling even colder at times, particularly during fresh winds. This may bring some wintry weather, with an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps snow showers, not confined to higher ground

Edited January 7, 2023 by KTtom

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Is there no “snow”/snow” option?

I was thinking exactly the same thing . Diabolical graphics. 

[Bricriu]

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

That's an odd comment - So because we don't get regular Northerlies we will never get another 

We will no doubt at some point, but they are rare these days.

[MJB]

19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

just said reduced risk of deep cold didnt write it off 

writing it off would be assuring nothing would happen

Takes a good 4 weeks to get the ball rolling usually so with little interest now I can't see anything interesting developing in January.

Looks like you virtually did write it off Kasim ^^^^^^^ That was December 27th 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Takes a good 4 weeks to get the ball rolling usually so with little interest now I can't see anything interesting developing in January.

Looks like you virtually did write it off Kasim ^^^^^^^ That was December 27th 

That was the negative Kasim talking

[minus10]

...Dont know about negative Kasim, think we have a bit of a negative tilt here.....

Edited January 7, 2023 by minus10

[TEITS]

15 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Don’t know why people care so much about the Exeter Update. It’s the ultimate fence sitting/ hedging bets option there is. 

They might as well write "We haven't a clue"

The forecast mentions a return to settled conditions but then predicts a return to unsettled conditions, generally mild but a chance of snow in colder interludes.

I have the utmost respect for the Met O but the longer range is a waste of time.

Back to the models the GFS/GEFS is very much out of sync with the other models at only +168.

[MJB]

So where is the money tonight ? Is the Atlantic slowing down , will be finally get a wintry blast ?

The fact that the Met O have added " Wintry" shows something could be in the offing ?

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

That was the negative Kasim talking

And at the time , I thought it was unlike you .

[andreas]

24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yep, turning to snow away from coast 

I do hope so - I am managing expectations here in south London by thinking it might be warm rain that turns to cold rain with the odd snowflake in the mix... 

Edited January 7, 2023 by andreas

[That ECM]

We need a forum for the met outlook. Oh hang on.come on people

Edited January 7, 2023 by That ECM

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

We need a forum for the met outlook. Oh hang on.come on people

Yep, it's messy in here tonight. Please can we try to keep it related to the model output in here. 

[northwestsnow]

EC MEAN day 9 is

[January Snowstorm]

Jma also goes cold after a very unsettled week!!

Will be fun to watch when the gfs finally smells the coffee

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Jma also goes cold after a very unsettled week!!

Will be fun to watch when the gfs finally smells the coffee

JMA Is a great run, days 8-11 here.

[Drifter]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC MEAN day 9 is

What’s so good about that? Whacking great PV over Greenland?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

What’s so good about that? Whacking great PV over Greenland?

The jet is sinking south and there is an Arctic high on the mean so we can be pretty confident I think of a colder airstream.

 

[Paul]

Since requesting that everyone tries to stay on topic in here 20 minutes ago, 50% of the posts have been off topic. Please can we all make an effort to posts in the relevant thread - eg model discussion in here.