Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKV say no to snow for the south but has a decent fall for the borders area 

Fax chart tends to agree with the low to the south - that’s the event we were hoping on Tuesday a few days back, and now a possible one on Monday failed to materialise I think - unless the trusty new GFS trumps them all

[Gregulator]

Big Ecm coming up(we all get to say at least once?)

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Gregulator said:

Big Ecm coming up(we all get to say at least once?)

Well the cold certainly hangs on into Thursday - so a 4-5 day cold spell which isn’t too bad - a pre-curser to a bitter Feb I reckon!! 

[KTtom]

5 minutes ago, Gregulator said:

Big Ecm coming up(we all get to say at least once?)

Never has a big ECM been met with such silence 

[blizzard81]

Greenland is just about PV free at day 4 on ecm only for it to rear it's ugly head again from day 5. 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Greenland is just about PV free at day 4 on ecm only for it to rear it's ugly head again from day 5. 

Hopefully not for long!!

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Greenland is just about PV free at day 4 on ecm only for it to rear it's ugly head again from day 5. 

Don't see signs of it being PV free at any stage

 

 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Don't see signs of it being PV free at any stage

 

 

I said 'just about' at day 4 - Next Tuesday. If you look on the northern hemisphere angle, you will see the arctic high and the atlantic high doing a pincer movement on Greenland and the PV lobe shrinks massively. You can even see the shrinkage on the Tuesday chart that you posted. 

[Ali1977]

I’d be happy with this at day 10, although the long range METO doesn’t really suggest it - and defo isn’t talking about anything from the east into Feb

[northwestsnow]

Day 10 Easterly

 

[Bricriu]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

I’d be happy with this at day 10, although the long range METO doesn’t really suggest it - and defo isn’t talking about anything from the east into Feb

Are they sitting on the fence, or is it their in house model does not forsee an North Easterly or Easterly influence by then. You would think if there was a strong signal for it they would at least make some reference to it by now. 

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Easily missed given the output early next week however the GFS ens are a lot more reluctant to bring milder Atlantic air back.

A substantial number have high pressure ridging over us, some even leave us in cold continental air with colder uppers failing to be displaced from eastern areas. This would open up the potential for further snow.

If we get a widespread covering of deep snow on Monday (huge dose of caution here - it may fall as cold rain still), then we could get some very cold minimums of winds slacken under a ridge.

Lets see what happens but maybe January won't be a write off after all. Still the risk of mild air coming in next weekend nonetheless.

Yes.looking at the gfes more of them under the minus 5 line on 12z than 6z....

12z

 Could this just be a blip or the start of a trend?

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I said 'just about' at day 4 - Next Tuesday. If you look on the northern hemisphere angle, you will see the arctic high and the atlantic high doing a pincer movement on Greenland and the PV lobe shrinks massively. You can even see the shrinkage on the Tuesday chart that you posted. 

The way I look at these charts is that you want the Greenland area not coloured with blues and purples on the 500hpa charts and ideally with yellows and oranges. That is an indication of true high pressure and not phantom high pressure as models struggle with atmospheric pressure modelling over the Greenland plateau.  

Edited January 13, 2023 by Weather-history

[Guest]

 Looks like I'll be getting me big coat again for a couple of days!

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

I’d be happy with this at day 10, although the long range METO doesn’t really suggest it - and defo isn’t talking about anything from the east into Feb

It's a nice ending to the ecm. Hope it's near the mark for 3 reasons. Firstly, no way back to the incessant rain experienced recently. Secondly, temps would be declining readily and surely and last but not least, it sets us up for something much more meaningful in the cold stakes further down the line. Just to finish off - I'm not concerned about the Meto. They have been playing catch up with the upcoming cold snap and I have every reason to believe they are still doing so. 

[Polar Maritime]

Some rather hard frosts to wake up to next week on the UKV.

[Bricriu]

5 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

 Looks like I'll be getting me big coat again for a couple of days!

Could still be cold under a high, if there is sufficient snow cover in some places 

 

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It's a nice ending to the ecm. Hope it's near the mark for 3 reasons. Firstly, no way back to the incessant rain experienced recently. Secondly, temps would be declining readily and surely and last but not least, it sets us up for something much more meaningful in the cold stakes further down the line. Just to finish off - I'm not concerned about the Meto. They have been playing catch up with the upcoming cold snap and I have every reason to believe they are still doing so. 

I hope you're right blizzard81. I agree  about  the incessant rain-  it had rained here nearly every day since the cold spell in December. So some respite from that rain would be most welcome.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Bricriu

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The way I look at these charts is that you want the Greenland area not coloured with blues and purples on the 500hpa charts and ideally with yellows and oranges. That is an indication of true high pressure and not phantom high pressure as models struggle with atmospheric pressure modelling over the Greenland plateau.  

I get that but I think you have missed my point somewhat. 

[MAF]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 10 Easterly

 

but just a high at 1025 or will there be any precipitation? a cold easterly but dry weather seems possible unless there is any signs of fronts coming in from the east. not sure there will be any precipitation for us in the SE. more than happy to be corrected

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Could still be cold under a high, if there is sufficient snow cover in some 

 

I hope you're right blizzard81. I agree  about  the incessant rain-  it had rained here nearly every day since the cold spell in December. So some respite from that rain would be most welcome.

And you are used to the rain over there so that's saying something . I think you have been sharing the joy

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, MAF said:

but just a high at 1025 or will there be any precipitation? a cold easterly but dry weather seems possible unless there is any signs of fronts coming in from the east. not sure there will be any precipitation for us in the SE. more than happy to be corrected

Very dry ..

Very cold air over N France by day 9   ( -8 overnight).

 

[Tim Bland]

Now that’s a split in the making 

[tight isobar]

We’ll chuck up the equipment - equals @ 500s @ ops@ens@ @ raws in sync.. we’ll view the last suite of the day 18z gfs- then mix in the play doe- and see what colour we get.   In the meantime, holding thought on “ letting cold infer “- engagement.., it’s honestly a sway to which can/ could change once we have a bound flow established!!! Spell.. or snap... that’s the question atm!!!?

Edited January 13, 2023 by tight isobar

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Doesn't say anything about the weather for next week though does it? How can you rule anything out at this point over Birmingham given the uncertainty of the models? At least have some reasoning behind it...

 

Because its the flow what dictates it. I'm know expert but inland looks very dry. Coastal areas OK 

[Derecho]

Just now, swfc said:

Don't think it's negativity its just the rug gets pulled away. Ssw lag effect is well into febuary 

3 days of scattered wintry showers "snow to the north" isn't unusual tbh

Well if you want an 1050mb high over Iceland and -10C uppers for days on end you aren't going to be impressed very often. Prolonged cold and snowy spells are more difficult to achieve in this day and age. Yes it is a polar maritime airmass which isn't too unusual but if we get a pivoting band of snow then it will be unusual in the context of recent winters.

Of course it may not produce anything notable but it wouldn't be wise to rule it out at this point.