Summer 2023 chat

[Sun Chaser]

Did the maths, 16th May - 15th June recorded 322.5 hours of sunshine in a 31-day period. Not even 2020 (303) or 2018 (272) could get close to this! It has been an exceptional and unprecedented sunny spell of weather here. Would be lovely to see it continue on Wednesday/Thursday following this short period of unsettled weather which would 100% confirm this as a June for the ages and definitely the best since 76.

[Summer8906]

16 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I see 2023 being better than 21, but it won’t be a classic 2022 or 2018.

Think the wheels will come off in early August, but hopefully some decent storms in the mix.

I genuinely have no idea what will happen, but I fear a frontloaded summer.

This is really just based on the fact that the high pressure never really builds in again throughout the GFS run. It's not terrible by any means but in the south much cloudier than we have been used to - though average rather than unseasonably dull.

Wouldn't surprise me if the long term trend is for the jetstream to sink south, and we get a very average July (rainfall average, warmer by night, average by day, cloudier than average) and a typical post-2006 August, followed by a return to anticyclonic conditions for the first half of autumn and a sunny, warm September. This really is just a guess though, and not backed-up by expert knowledge.

For me personally it doesn't matter so much as likely to be out of the country (Greece) in Jul/Aug - though one issue is that changeable weather here (particularly if there is a northerly component to the wind, as a northerly here generally means a southerly in eastern Europe) is often correlated with excessively hot weather there. Basically I'd like to see 30C while I'm there, and not 35C!

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[Guest]

9am check in! 
 

Can confirm it’s warm here in Hurghada.

was very surprised to see the radar back at home and it’s raining, thought it would stay dry until at tomorrow Am. 

 

[Summer8906]

17 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I feel exactly the same sweet! I've "only" had 2 weeks of cloudless (ish) skies! And don't want ot go back under months of tosh!

Just down the road here we've just had 5 weeks of practically cloudless skies, with just three days with significant cloud from May 15-June 16 inclusive (those were May 19, June 10 and June 11). Plus the weekend of May 13/14 was mostly sunny.

But while those 5 weeks were most welcome, it also means that a return to cloudier conditions will come as a bit of a shock, even though it'll likely be average rather than unseasonably dull.

11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

9am check in! 
 

Can confirm it’s warm here in Hurghada.

was very surprised to see the radar back at home and it’s raining, thought it would stay dry until at tomorrow Am. 

 

While the Egyptian heat would be a bit much for me, you have picked the right time to get out of the country!

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 15/06/2023 at 14:06, plymsunshine said:

2017 was unsettled in the first and last 10 days, midmonth spell was amazing though I'll give you that. 2022 very much the same kind of thing though the settled weather continued a little longer. Both good but had plenty of bad days too, lacked the consistency we're having this year. June 2018 was an amazing month but I imagine this one will be ending up sunnier and warmer than that!

Indeed, June 2017 had that intense hot spell for 10 days but poorer weather at the start and end means it was not exceptional; in fact ISTR sunshine and rainfall were average.

2018 was very, very dry and the last 10 days were very good but the first 20 days were cloudy, I think the month only just got into the above-average category for sunshine.

2022 I was only here for the first 17 days. The first 10 days or so were changeable with a couple of fine days on the 2nd and 4th, then there was a fine spell 13th-17th, becoming hot. Then apparently a wet, dull and very cool for a time weekend before a further short fine spell 20th-22nd, then the last week was changeable again, so seems like average at best though going on second-hand info about the final 2 weeks.

Last June with sunshine throughout the month (not continuous, but repeated sunny spells following each other) was 2015 - we've now had quite a long run of unexceptional Junes. How long before we get another 1992, 2006 or 2010, I wonder?

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[Bristawl Si]

Raining 16c

[Summer8906]

I've just noticed a curious coincidence with what happened exactly 6 months ago.

The calendar for December 2022 was exactly the same as this month; it too began on a Thursday.

Dec 2022 was of course cold and dry until Sunday 18th when it suddenly turned mild and wet.

This weekend also features a Sunday 18th and also features an unwelcome change in the weather (one day earlier than 6 months ago), though not to conditions quite as poor as those of late Dec 2022.

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

32 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Raining 16c

Was rain here about half an hour ago though seems to have stopped for now.

Dull, dark and, for a time, wet. Not at all what I was expecting today!

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

10 hours ago, Daniel* said:

July’s are very warm in London now, as warm as they were in Paris… 50 years ago? I wonder whether we will see another notably warm July there’s been quite a high frequency in last decade.

That said, there's been a fair number of pretty poor Julys too; apart from 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022, they've been rather on the drab side, lacking much in the way of sunshine.

Much better were the Julys of 1989 to 1999 inclusive, many of which were notably warm and sunny and only three (1992, 1993 and 1998) were poor.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Opening day now in range of GFS! 30 plus looks likely 

[Summer8906]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Opening day now in range of GFS! 30 plus looks likely 

Too unsettled for me.

Can easily see the Atlantic charging in very soon after that and bringing in cool, dull and wet. The heat is in the wrong place, in Italy where it's hot enough anyway as a matter of course and they could probably do with something a little cooler. Would much prefer to see a nice Azores high ridging in, or even better, an easterly type bringing warm weather to northern Europe and something other than extreme heat to southern Europe. Thankfully far FI and can be taken with a big pinch of salt.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[sunnijim]

9 hours ago, Don said:

I don't really get the doom and gloom as the weather has been exceptional for June and comfortable for most.  I think after a short lived blip, late June and July at least will be another warm and possibly dry month.

We had this 'doom and gloom" from the get go last summer in here.

Talk of the Atlantic waking up,North westerly, no route back to warm and settled....

The list went on and some how we ended up with a prolonged hot summer that was still going at times in October.

One day the Atlantic will awaken properly,but it has been in a slumber for nearly two years now,( all seasons)

 

[SunSean]

Hate going from clear blue skies to clear grey skies lol. If the beautiful sunshine is going to be broken, can't we at least have a half and half day rather than full on grey?

[Lincs Observation]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

GFS 0z ends with extremely hot air perilously close to UK shores.  If that cut off low was any further west we'd be looking at 40°C being challenged again for the start of July.  Extreme heat is likely to build into Iberia so any plume setup will be far hotter than usual IMO

If you keep blowing up a ballon eventually it will go pop, if this heat keeps building you have to say we have a very good chance of it bursting into the Uk. The worry is good or bad the uk is fast becoming a equatorial country due to warming.

 

LO

 

[richie3846]

8 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Hate going from clear blue skies to clear grey skies lol. If the beautiful sunshine is going to be broken, can't we at least have a half and half day rather than full on grey?

I was under the impression that many would still enjoy some warm sunshine today, with a shower risk later, and this very light rain pushing through this morning.

[Guest]

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I was under the impression that many would still enjoy some warm sunshine today, with a shower risk later, and this very light rain pushing through this morning.

Was wondering where the sun is? come as a shock to many I'd think, especially to non interested weather folk

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I genuinely have no idea what will happen, but I fear a frontloaded summer.

This is really just based on the fact that the high pressure never really builds in again throughout the GFS run. It's not terrible by any means but in the south much cloudier than we have been used to - though average rather than unseasonably dull.

Wouldn't surprise me if the long term trend is for the jetstream to sink south, and we get a very average July (rainfall average, warmer by night, average by day, cloudier than average) and a typical post-2006 August, followed by a return to anticyclonic conditions for the first half of autumn and a sunny, warm September. This really is just a guess though, and not backed-up by expert knowledge.

For me personally it doesn't matter so much as likely to be out of the country (Greece) in Jul/Aug - though one issue is that changeable weather here (particularly if there is a northerly component to the wind, as a northerly here generally means a southerly in eastern Europe) is often correlated with excessively hot weather there. Basically I'd like to see 30C while I'm there, and not 35C!

Actually it’s post 2005 Augusts, as 2006 was the start of the poor Augusts, even though it was a hot summer. 

[slater]

1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

We had this 'doom and gloom" from the get go last summer in here.

Talk of the Atlantic waking up,North westerly, no route back to warm and settled....

The list went on and some how we ended up with a prolonged hot summer that was still going at times in October.

One day the Atlantic will awaken properly,but it has been in a slumber for nearly two years now,( all seasons)

 

Agree , this set up has been forecast to happen by the MO in their 3 month summer forecast 

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I genuinely have no idea what will happen, but I fear a frontloaded summer.

This is really just based on the fact that the high pressure never really builds in again throughout the GFS run. It's not terrible by any means but in the south much cloudier than we have been used to - though average rather than unseasonably dull.

Wouldn't surprise me if the long term trend is for the jetstream to sink south, and we get a very average July (rainfall average, warmer by night, average by day, cloudier than average) and a typical post-2006 August, followed by a return to anticyclonic conditions for the first half of autumn and a sunny, warm September. This really is just a guess though, and not backed-up by expert knowledge.

For me personally it doesn't matter so much as likely to be out of the country (Greece) in Jul/Aug - though one issue is that changeable weather here (particularly if there is a northerly component to the wind, as a northerly here generally means a southerly in eastern Europe) is often correlated with excessively hot weather there. Basically I'd like to see 30C while I'm there, and not 35C!

August has always been a poor summer month since 1980.

[SunSean]

29 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I was under the impression that many would still enjoy some warm sunshine today, with a shower risk later, and this very light rain pushing through this morning.

Not here unfortunately. Hoping the sunshine returns next week though.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

That said, there's been a fair number of pretty poor Julys too; apart from 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022, they've been rather on the drab side, lacking much in the way of sunshine.

Much better were the Julys of 1989 to 1999 inclusive, many of which were notably warm and sunny and only three (1992, 1993 and 1998) were poor.

Yes, despite what heat haters say and class as warm summers in the last decade, they have been on the poor side. Only 2013, 14, 18 and 22 can be classed as really good.

2015-17 were poor, 19 was also mediocre, and 20 had a miserable July.

30 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I was under the impression that many would still enjoy some warm sunshine today, with a shower risk later, and this very light rain pushing through this morning.

It’s starting to feel hot now, as I come to the end of my Saturday morning walk. Feels humid and thundery, with hazy sun mixed with large amounts of cloud. 

[Summer8906]

39 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Actually it’s post 2005 Augusts, as 2006 was the start of the poor Augusts, even though it was a hot summer. 

That's true.

37 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

August has always been a poor summer month since 1980.

I think it's always been the poorest long-term; in the 70s, only 1976 and half of 1975 were notably good, though there were a number of OK ones on top of that. In the 60s there was a good one in 1964 but the rest were average-to-poor. I'd actually say there was an upturn in the quarter-century beginning in 1981: of that period 1981, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2003 and 2005 were all varying degrees of good. Also, 1996 was on the good side and some others, including 1987 and 1988 in some areas, 1993, and 2000-2002, were OK. The upturn in this 25-year period led me to question the textbook description of August being a poor month, as it frequently wasn't: but poor Augusts have come back with a vengeance since.

I wonder if there is any particular explanation for August being disproportionately wet and dull, or alternatively September being disproportionately dry? While the trend from June to December is generally downwards, August is a marked trough and September a marked upturn, as if those two months are "the wrong way round".

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[Sun Chaser]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Indeed, June 2017 had that intense hot spell for 10 days but poorer weather at the start and end means it was not exceptional; in fact ISTR sunshine and rainfall were average.

2018 was very, very dry and the last 10 days were very good but the first 20 days were cloudy, I think the month only just got into the above-average category for sunshine.

2022 I was only here for the first 17 days. The first 10 days or so were changeable with a couple of fine days on the 2nd and 4th, then there was a fine spell 13th-17th, becoming hot. Then apparently a wet, dull and very cool for a time weekend before a further short fine spell 20th-22nd, then the last week was changeable again, so seems like average at best though going on second-hand info about the final 2 weeks.

Last June with sunshine throughout the month (not continuous, but repeated sunny spells following each other) was 2015 - we've now had quite a long run of unexceptional Junes. How long before we get another 1992, 2006 or 2010, I wonder?

And of course June 2015 was quite cool so while nice and sunny and dry it was by no means a classic.

I think we're currently in a June that will be considered one of the best, depending which way things go with the modelling in 5-6 days' time! What happens in the final week will make the difference between a classic like 1992 or just a "nice" June like 17/18. 

(I would also like to mention 2021 as being one of the best Junes in the west as the second half was often warmer than the first, overall a sunny and warm month here. But i hear things were very different in the east)

 

[Sun Chaser]

37 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Actually it’s post 2005 Augusts, as 2006 was the start of the poor Augusts, even though it was a hot summer. 

Being honest I think our run of terrible Augusts is long gone, of course it will always be more unsettled than the other two summer months as the sea is warmer but we've had some better ones in recent years. 2016 was nice, most of 2018 was good, 2019 was decent, 2020 had a very hot spell (though did turn miserable later) and 2022 was of course a classic. I think the era of the stinker Augusts coming in quick succession (2008, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015) is over