Summer 2023 chat

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I can see March being an extension of winter, but with a few springlike days days here and there. I feel that after 3 consecutive below average rainfall Aprils, this year's one will be wetter than average and possibly the wettest since 2012. This is to be followed by an anticyclonic May with plenty of spring warmth and sunshine.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[MP-R]

If we don't get a SSW, which would likely kibosh any smooth progression into spring... I would think a similar affair to recent years with unsettled conditions in March until around the equinox, then a nice anticyclonic spell that could start chilly and become warmer for the remainder of the month. Then, a mostly anticyclonic April with varying degrees of northerly, easterly and southeasterly influence. Progressing into a wetter May with southerly tracking lows that occasionally set themselves up to bring intermittent bursts of warmth/heat as the month goes on. This pattern continuing into early June, before a more established anticyclonic pattern sets in as the jet stream weakens further and what's left of it returns to its summer position.

[reef]

52 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I can see March being an extension of winter, but with a few springlike days days here and there. I feel that after 3 consecutive below average rainfall Aprils, this year's one will be wetter than average and possibly the wettest since 2012. This is to be followed by an anticyclonic May with plenty of spring warmth and sunshine.

Dry is an understatement for the last 3 Aprils here:

April 2020: 6.6mm
April 2021: 2.4mm
April 2022: 4.0mm

In fact, of the last 16 Aprils, 10 have had 21mm or below here. It has been a remarkable run. It has to break at some point.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Always look forward to the first cut of the lawn and the smell of the grass in the air. A sure sign of Spring. 

[Sunny76]

Going for a rotten spring, with much cloudier and colder conditions, mixed with warm and humid.

The plus side will be more chance of severe thunderstorms in May and early June.

[summer blizzard]

Warmer than average and settled but not notable.

My current thoughts essentially posit that we will see a Sceuro Block in March. Although there's a chance it could be cool, there's more chance that it will end up mild and dry (those the perhaps dull).

April will see a UK high though perhaps trending west of the UK, dry but potentially sunny. I would imagine that spring will arrive for most people.

May will tend to see a more average Westerly pattern but with an Azores Ridge into Europe. Probably mild albeit average precipitation and sunshine and probably early warmth for western Europe.

Thinking of summer, better early than late.

 

 

[Summer8906]

My gut feeling for spring right now is a mild March, with a fair amount of warm and sunny weather but this year focused more on the early and mid-part of the month, unlike recent years but common up to and including 2014.

I then think it'll become cooler and more changeable late in March, but April will be quite northerly. So quite a few polar outbreaks and the biggest snowfall of the 'winter' early in the month, also a good deal of "April showers" NW-ly weather - but also a couple of shortish warm sunny periods with the highest temps around 23C.

Recent Mays in 2021 and 2022 have been very Atlantic-dominated for the season, so I'll go with something more blocked this year with an easterly May. Some periods of cool NE-lies mixed with warm and somewhat thundery E-lies with low pressure over France. Perhaps slightly wetter than normal but also sunnier.

Whatever happens, as spring is the season where the Atlantic is least active, it tends to please more often than it disappoints.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

going for a lousy, miserable Spring, March a continuation of autumn with rain and Atlantic air/zonal, April and May, mostly N/E winds, wet and very little sun away from W Scotland

[Summer8906]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

going for a lousy, miserable Spring, March a continuation of autumn with rain and Atlantic air/zonal, April and May, mostly N/E winds, wet and very little sun away from W Scotland

Don't think we've had a spring that bad since about 1986, and long may that continue!

[Seasonal Trim]

Personally, I'm done with Winter. I like my snow around Christmas, and had my fill at the beginning of December. My wife's already got daffodils in the kitchen window. Just need the Spring warmth to go with them!  

[Sunny76]

3 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Personally, I'm done with Winter. I like my snow around Christmas, and had my fill at the beginning of December. My wife's already got daffodils in the kitchen window. Just need the Spring warmth to go with them!  

You might need to wait a little long for that. I would give it another 5-6 weeks.

[SummerShower]

I am guessing spring will be fairly wet this year, with cold and warm periods. Will be similar I think to march 2018 (a couple of easterly outbreaks), April 2012 and a May like 2006 maybe.. unsettled but warm.

 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, SummerShower said:

I am guessing spring will be fairly wet this year, with cold and warm periods. Will be similar I think to march 2018 (a couple of easterly outbreaks), April 2012 and a May like 2006 maybe.. unsettled but warm.

 

I'm guessing that I don't have the foggiest!

[cheeky_monkey]

On 22/01/2023 at 05:17, Summer8906 said:

Don't think we've had a spring that bad since about 1986, and long may that continue!

yep spring 1986 was a real kick in the teeth after an exceptionally cold February..summer 1986 was sheet also

[Seasonal Trim]

While the frost is still painting my lawn, I can't help feel a little twinge for a lovely little bit of spring warmth. Still a little way to go yet, but that first warm day does make my heart glow.

"The spring haze.
The scent already in the air.
The moon and ume."

Edited March 2, 2023 by reef
Changed topic title

[Blessed Weather]

Good to have a new thread where we can capture and discuss early thoughts and forecasts about the upcoming Spring and Summer 2023. To continue the discussions I’ll throw in a couple of points of interest.

• Spring – is it starting earlier? Certainly, stats from the SE Region show that the first day of the year to hit 20C has been trending earlier by 5 days every decade. It was March 20th in 2022. And the driest two months of the year in the east are now March and April.
• Summer blocking patterns – studies indicate the jet stream is now more prone to significant meandering, this causing a doubling in the instances of summer blocking since 2000, and depending on block location, prolonged periods of hot, dry weather or wet weather. Will 2023 be a repeat of 2022 in Europe?
• Teleconnections - ENSO. The Met Office is suggesting that with the expected demise of La Nina after 3 years of providing a cooling, moderating effect, global temperatures in 2023 will exceed the record heat of 2022 as we slowly move into an El Nino. Just a personal thought but with models suggesting El Nino not kicking in until the end of summer, will there be much influence for our part of the world this side of Autumn?
  Met Office forecasts 2023 will be hotter than 2022

Edited February 8, 2023 by Blessed Weather
Tidied up post as new thread merged with existing thread..

[summer blizzard]

In terms of ENSO our potential analogues are (using a full year as a base requirement)..

56 - Did not hit neutral until September

72 - Nino by May

76 - Nino by September

85 - Neutral by August

01 - Neutral by February

09 - Nino by July 

12 - Neutral by April

18 - Nino by September

Generally a pattern emerges. Those multiple year Nina's which only went to neutral produced horrific summers, 56, 85 and 12 are among the worst on record, 01 was okay.

The years that flip were generally pretty good. 76 and 18 were stunners, 09 was okay.

 

[Summer8906]

Is there any value comparing this year with other years in which Jan started wet and became drier, and Feb had prolonged anticyclonic, and mostly milder than average weather?

The ones that come to mind are 1992 (but no wet start in Jan), 1993, 1998 and 2008 - perhaps not the best years for spring and summer, but no real pattern to what months were good and what were bad (though some tendency for a changeable March and April, good May and June [1998 being the obvious exception], and poorer mid-to-late summer). Probably not a large enough sample size to draw firm conclusions, I suspect - but these are the only comparable years since 1980, mild and dry Februaries are surprisingly infrequent.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Summer8906

[summer blizzard]

Just thought I'd list the (non-nino) SSW's between 14th Feb and 16th March.

1984

1989

1999

2002

2008

I deleted 1979 and 1981 because they did not follow or were not in Nina events.

Looking at those springs for anything of note.

1984 - Cold March and May

1989 - Cold April

1999 - Nothing much abnormal, just a bit warmer than average.

2002 - Nothing much abnormal, close to the recent average.

2008 - Stonking May.

No real spring warmth in these springs bar 2008 but likewise, not necessarily a signal for much of a lasting impact to the SSW either.

[Sunny76]

12 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Just thought I'd list the (non-nino) SSW's between 14th Feb and 16th March.

1984

1989

1999

2002

2008

I deleted 1979 and 1981 because they did not follow or were not in Nina events.

Looking at those springs for anything of note.

1984 - Cold March and May

1989 - Cold April

1999 - Nothing much abnormal, just a bit warmer than average.

2002 - Nothing much abnormal, close to the recent average.

2008 - Stonking May.

No real spring warmth in these springs bar 2008 but likewise, not necessarily a signal for much of a lasting impact to the SSW either.

I remember 2002 having some warm days in late March, and April was quite warm and sunny for a couple of weeks.

[Weather-history]

 

Talk of date records, here's warm date records with -AO and -NAO

as high as 23.3°C on the 12th March 1957

Data from NOAA for March 1957 AO: -2.013; NAO: -1.26

March 1957 is the warmest March on record for the CET with 9.2°C

[DeepSnow]

My tree in the front garden has started to bloom thanks to the milder weather we have had, I worry now its been tricked and if we get colder weather it could damage it. Already lost my bottlebrush tree and cordyline to the cold earlier in the season. Looking forward to it getting warmer for my gardens sake lol.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, DeepSnow said:

My tree in the front garden has started to bloom thanks to the milder weather we have had, I worry now its been tricked and if we get colder weather it could damage it. Already lost my bottlebrush tree and cordyline to the cold earlier in the season. Looking forward to it getting warmer for my gardens sake lol.

I lost my Cord too! And i've had it many years!

[mb018538]

I think logic would probably steer you towards a colder spring this year with the major SSW having more effects though March and April. Not what I want, but hey, the weather will do what it'll do!

I think all bets are off for summer this year. I honestly didn't anticipate what we saw in 2022 with the 40c+, exceptional drought and hot August. I'd probably say the probability edges towards above average with La Nina moving neutral or towards El Nino, but the links are tenuous at best for the UK. 

My favourite 2 seasons of the year anyway, and we're almost upon them. I can forget about the darkness of late autumn and winter for another 7 months now!

[ANYWEATHER]

A rather cold ,and increasingly wet spring, Summer will be very changeable this year.