Summer 2023 chat

[MP-R]

11 hours ago, plymsunshine said:

To be fair I think 19 July 2022 had the perfect conditions to get as close as possible to an absolute maximum (for now): very dry ground, very high SSTs, near-peak sun strength and day length, high pressure already heating up the ground in the weeks leading up to it, an intense pool of heat in Iberia, and the low placed in exactly the perfect location to draw up lots of southerly air at peak daylight. Even Plymouth got to 35C when I thought it was impossible to get over 32C here! So I find it very difficult to believe anything over around 42C is physically possible at this moment in time.

With the current rate of climate change I think 45C will be attainable within a couple of decades which is very scary. But it's a definite possibility.

Absolutely right. Everything had to come together perfectly for us to scrape 40C. Had the front from the west been any earlier, it probably would’ve scuppered it.

A scenario of home grown heat from lengthy high pressure won’t return those kinds of temperatures in this country… low to mid thirties like 2018 or 2013 more likely. Only an exceptional plume following a long dry period might put another 40C as a possibility.

[ANYWEATHER]

15 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Less moisture and less colder air to bump into the hot air? Just a theory.

Big thunderstorms require generally lots of heat , if the atmosphere is unstable they will happen. It’s cycles within weather cycles some can last just a few years some can last many lifetimes

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Yes, it has to be remembered that 40°C last was achieved in conjunction with an  exceptionally hot airmass, it wasn't a bog standard hot airmass.

 

Like Stainesbloke mentioned in another thread(Spring 23 I think?) a wetter spring(not all the time, but a few days a month of steady rain) would help with any potential drought issues.

I feel a summer similar to 1994 would be ideal, with cooler periods in April and May mixed with warmer ones, then a cool start to June, with a gradual build up of hot sunny weather during June and hitting the jackpot come July and early August.

I would like some drier periods because my partner needs it for her gardening business. But, we could also benefit from a few thunderstorms between May and August.

Let’s see what happens. A mixed summer would probably make everyone happy. Not a 2022, but if we can’t have another 18 or 22, give me 1994, 2013, or even 2014. 

All I ask for is please, not another 2007 or 12, 1985, 86, 87, or 88 They were all vile.

2009 was ok, but the July was terrible and August was a bit on the cloudy side. 
 

2010 was another false dawn with a good late May and june, but the rest of the summer was very cloudy and August was cold.

[Sunny76]

12 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Big thunderstorms require generally lots of heat , if the atmosphere is unstable they will happen. It’s cycles within weather cycles some can last just a few years some can last many lifetimes

We used to get more thunderstorms in summer back in the 80s to early 2000s.

[StretfordEnd1996]

No idea what Summer's going to bring overall, but, as with every Summer in this day and age (certainly within the last 10 years or so) to achieve 2-3 days of widespread sunshine and heat of over 30'C generally nationwide is just so so common these days, you just need a gentle nudge winds up from the South and the whole country is coated with those hot uppers. I expect nothing different this Summer, but quite how many times we will get this I'm not sure. 

 

While I colder than average/wetter than average Summer feels overdue I don't feel we can get that these days

[Stabilo19]

Last year the Mediterranean region experienced abnormally high temperatures from spring continuing throughout summer which lead to higher SSTs.

We should be looking out for the same this year as a precursor to any extreme UK summer heat.. 

[Vortex3929]

Hot and dry by day, big elevated storms bringing rain and cooler temps at night then back to hot and dry would be ideal personally. Chuck in a few imported MCS..

I don't want much do I

[Sunny76]

24 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

No idea what Summer's going to bring overall, but, as with every Summer in this day and age (certainly within the last 10 years or so) to achieve 2-3 days of widespread sunshine and heat of over 30'C generally nationwide is just so so common these days, you just need a gentle nudge winds up from the South and the whole country is coated with those hot uppers. I expect nothing different this Summer, but quite how many times we will get this I'm not sure. 

 

While I colder than average/wetter than average Summer feels overdue I don't feel we can get that these days

At the same time, we seem to be having a long run of cloudy summers, which kind of cancel out any hot and sunny weather. That’s the problem I had with most summers between 2015-2021, with only 2018 being decent. 

26 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

No idea what Summer's going to bring overall, but, as with every Summer in this day and age (certainly within the last 10 years or so) to achieve 2-3 days of widespread sunshine and heat of over 30'C generally nationwide is just so so common these days, you just need a gentle nudge winds up from the South and the whole country is coated with those hot uppers. I expect nothing different this Summer, but quite how many times we will get this I'm not sure. 

 

While I colder than average/wetter than average Summer feels overdue I don't feel we can get that these days

Does anyone really want another 1985 though? Endless days of 16-19c in high summer, with many days of cloud and rain is just depressing.

5 minutes ago, UKSnakey said:

Hot and dry by day, big elevated storms bringing rain and cooler temps at night then back to hot and dry would be ideal personally. Chuck in a few imported MCS..

I don't want much do I

Stop being greedy lol.

[James M]

Personally I’m hoping for quite a wet spring to reduce the fires we normally get up here. It would be good to properly soak the ground ready for whatever summer May bring.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, UKSnakey said:

Hot and dry by day, big elevated storms bringing rain and cooler temps at night then back to hot and dry would be ideal personally. Chuck in a few imported MCS..

I don't want much do I

How about elevated storms with no rain till the back end,  rain only lasting about half hour. That's the storm we got here in Dover after the extremely hot day. I'm hoping the storms come with rain, as the rain is needed.

[Vortex3929]

56 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

How about elevated storms with no rain till the back end,  rain only lasting about half hour. That's the storm we got here in Dover after the extremely hot day. I'm hoping the storms come with rain, as the rain is needed.

I agree. Like I said, storms overnight. Elevated are pretty but on a hot day rain may evaporate before doing anything useful

[Vortex3929]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Stop being greedy lol.

! Id add that I'd totally share my storms with those who like them of course! 

Those who dislike them, we will keep your share. Because we are caring like that

[Azazel]

I would like some actual homegrown storms down here.

I’ll take an elevated plume storm obviously but unless it’s dark they’re quite boring to look at usually.

it feels like forever since we copped a proper surface based storm in my neck of the woods (saying that, we did get one around Halloween last year which was actually pretty ferocious).

Ideally for me I need something to fire off down to the southwest with the longest land track possible. 

[summer blizzard]

Before people get too excited about summer delivering 40C, it's worth remembering that 2018 actually kept things modest in that regard by having a static high over plumes. 

[Sunny76]

4 hours ago, Azazel said:

I would like some actual homegrown storms down here.

I’ll take an elevated plume storm obviously but unless it’s dark they’re quite boring to look at usually.

it feels like forever since we copped a proper surface based storm in my neck of the woods (saying that, we did get one around Halloween last year which was actually pretty ferocious).

Ideally for me I need something to fire off down to the southwest with the longest land track possible. 

Was that the one on the Sunday in late October? It was pretty nasty over the London area, and went very dark around 4:30pm. Not sure if it was Halloween, but I remember everyone in the office got hit, because we were all talking about it the next day.

My coworkers live all over the place, some in Essex, some up in north London and some of them are based in Kent. 

[Sunny76]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I fully agree, that is also out of order as everyone is entitled to their weather preferences and guilt tripping and insults are not acceptable!

I think the best thing moving forward is just enjoy the weather you like, as nobody can change that.

If another summer 2022 or 2018 happens, I’ll welcome it. However, if it’s another 2021 for the south, I won’t be so enthusiastic and I will moan about it. But, I don’t expect the individuals who enjoy a cool summer to respond in a negative and defensive fashion.

 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think the best thing moving forward is just enjoy the weather you like, as nobody can change that.

If another summer 2022 or 2018 happens, I’ll welcome it. However, if it’s another 2021 for the south, I won’t be so enthusiastic and I will moan about it. But, I don’t expect the individuals who enjoy a cool summer to respond in a negative and defensive fashion.

 

Absolutely.  A 2018 like summer would be preferable for me over 2022 due to consistent heat without those dreaded heat spikes!

[Don]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Ok I'm not fat, but I can't control my body temp in the cold or hot, and woke up with heat exhaustion after the 40⁰ day, I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one. In my case one of the joys of ms. I'm not saying I don't want summer, I just really can't cope with over 35. It only got to 37 in Dover. God knows what I would have been like somewhere even hotter.

Wow, just shows how much our climate has changed in recent years!!

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Wow, just shows how much our climate has changed in recent years!!

Exactly normally when London or wherever in land has temps over 30, down here the max is nearer 28, 29, tolerable, the sea breeze keeps it down. This time there was no breeze.

[danm]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

Why oh why could any rational person become excited by this Summer bringing 40c temps? You would literally have to be off your rocker to think that was in anyway exciting. It would be like folk wanting minus 20 daytime temps in the UK during Winter, nothing to be excited about, dreading yes i agree.

You’re on a forum full of weather enthusiasts, some like to experience extremes now and then. Personally I love hot weather in the summer and hitting 40c was quite an experience, however one day with temperatures that high was enough as our homes aren’t built to deal with temperatures that high. 

A summer with temperatures fluctuating between the mid 20’s and low 30’s would be ideal.

Edited March 13, 2023 by danm

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, danm said:

You’re on a forum full of weather enthusiasts, some like to experience extremes now and then. Personally I love hot weather in the summer and hitting 40c was quite an experience, however one day with temperatures that high was enough as our homes aren’t built to deal with temperatures that high. 

A summer with temperatures fluctuating between the mid 20’s and low 30’s would be ideal.

Did you get the hot wind where you were, in the evening Infront of the cold front, before the cooler winds started with the cold front. That's when Dover temp shot up to 37 at about five o clock. Was horrible, like opening a fan assisted oven.

[Sun Chaser]

10 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Did you get the hot wind where you were, in the evening Infront of the cold front, before the cooler winds started with the cold front. That's when Dover temp shot up to 37 at about five o clock. Was horrible, like opening a fan assisted oven.

I remember reading someone on here describe it as like "walking through a hairdryer" which is the perfect way to put it. A day I'll never forget as a weather enthusiast, feeling strong winds at 35C was something I thought I'd never experience in the UK but that's climate change for you.

Not something we could do with every summer though, this year all I want is a long spell of sun and mid-high 20s with occasional southerly sourced thunderstorms to mix things up and avoid a drought as bad as last year. If I'm going to be selfish I would choose to have all our rain in May and June as that's when my exams are lol  then a nice classic July spell of static HP like 2013 or 2018

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Absolutely.  A 2018 like summer would be preferable for me over 2022 due to consistent heat without those dreaded heat spikes!

Yes I agree, although 2022 did produce some nice sunny spells and that August spell was a godsend after many a poor august got sunshine and hot weather. 
 

2020 was more uncomfortable in my opinion, with more hazy and humid conditions. 2022 seemed much drier and that’s why I found the heat more bearable.

The night of the 40c though, I will even admit it was so hot we decided to leave the flat and walk around the local area at 10pm, the temp was around 26-27c with no wind. It was like being in southern Spain.

Now when I walk around the same streets, it feels like an age ago, when walking back from the station in the evenings and feeling the cool or cold air. 

[Don]

Just now, Sunny76 said:

2020 was more uncomfortable in my opinion, with more hazy and humid conditions. 2022 seemed much drier and that’s why I found the heat more bearable.

I found the second week of August 2020 to be particularly uncomfortable.  Funny old month that was with the second half being generally cool and unsettled.  As for the 18th/19th July last year, I didn't even leave the house!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Personally I didn't mind those very hot days we had last July too much. Night time was difficult but during the day it was just about tolerable (more so outdoors than indoors mind). It isn't something I'd want to experience for any longer than a couple of days though. For long periods, my limit during the summer would be the early 30s. 

I'd feel the same way about temps of -20°C in the winter. Would be interesting for a couple of days just out of curiosity. But otherwise my limit would be around -6°C.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91