Summer 2023 chat

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Here we go ... I can barely believe this one but ...

 

[The PIT]

I'm pretty confident we will see 40C reached again this year. Mainly due to injection of water vapour into the atmosphere although the knock on effects are uncertain. It's also possible the water vapour may knock some of the methane out of the atmosphere so effectively cancelling the warming effect of the water vapour.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Here we go ... I can barely believe this one but ...

 

Somebody needs to tell them that it's a few weeks too late for April fools. 

[Sunny76]

35 minutes ago, The PIT said:

I'm pretty confident we will see 40C reached again this year. Mainly due to injection of water vapour into the atmosphere although the knock on effects are uncertain. It's also possible the water vapour may knock some of the methane out of the atmosphere so effectively cancelling the warming effect of the water vapour.

40c won’t bother me to be honest. I’m so sick and tired off this cold windy and dull weather of late.

Winter 22/23 is still refusing to walk away quietly. 

[B87]

My guesstimate of how this summer will go for the London area:

June: 22c/12c, 20mm rain, 230 sun hrs

July: 25c/14c, 30mm rain, 260 sun hrs

August: 23c/15c, 80mm rain, 190 sun hrs

In summary, June and July will have average to above average temperatures, sunny and dry. August will be thundery, wet and cloudy with average temperatures. Every month will record at least 30c, with a peak of 35c in July.

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by B87

[summer blizzard]

Updated thoughts.. 

May - High to the south west, low to the north east. A bit warmer than average, fairly dry.

June - Atlantic High to be featured. Weak trough near the UK as a mean. Damp but not exceptional (would imagine a potentially thundery month). On the cool side. 

July - High over/west of the UK, Relatively average temperature and rainfall. Probably not dull. 

August - UK low, High in the Atlantic. Fairly cool and wet (possibly north of 100mm). 

September - Atlantic High, Low to the east. Wet. 

So in general my current thoughts are that most people probably won't the May-July period which is likely to be unremarkable but as always at that time of year, feel warm. August-September to be written off. 

[Methuselah]

I haven't the faintest idea! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

18 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Updated thoughts.. 

May - High to the south west, low to the north east. A bit warmer than average, fairly dry.

June - Atlantic High to be featured. Weak trough near the UK as a mean. Damp but not exceptional (would imagine a potentially thundery month). On the cool side. 

July - High over/west of the UK, Relatively average temperature and rainfall. Probably not dull. 

August - UK low, High in the Atlantic. Fairly cool and wet (possibly north of 100mm). 

September - Atlantic High, Low to the east. Wet. 

So in general my current thoughts are that most people probably won't the May-July period which is likely to be unremarkable but as always at that time of year, feel warm. August-September to be written off. 

I think a thundery June is a good call as I’ve been thinking the same. Could be fairly humid though for early summer.

[Guest]

18 hours ago, B87 said:

My guesstimate of how this summer will go for the London area:

June: 22c/12c, 20mm rain, 230 sun hrs

July: 25c/14c, 30mm rain, 260 sun hrs

August: 23c/15c, 80mm rain, 190 sun hrs

In summary, June and July will have average to above average temperatures, sunny and dry. August will be thundery, wet and cloudy with average temperatures. Every month will record at least 30c, with a peak of 35c in July.

 

Heathrow has averaged 25C through the last ten years of July now so it’s pretty normal. 

[Sunny76]

Updated prediction.

I’m going for a 1981 type summer, with a helping of 1994 warmth in June.

Definitely feels to me we will have a thundery summer, and possibly the most thundery for a number of years.

Don’t think 30c will be breathed more than a few times, with temps failing to reach 35c. 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Don’t think 30c will be breathed more than a few times, with temps failing to reach 35c. 

Sounds good to me!

[Sunny76]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Sounds good to me!

I typed breathed instead of breached lol. 
 

That’s your fault Don.

 

[Earthshine]

IMO we will see a return of the Biscay Low periodically bringing exceptionally hot weather to the UK.  A bit like 2019 but hotter.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

IMO we will see a return of the Biscay Low periodically bringing exceptionally hot weather to the UK.  A bit like 2019 but hotter.

I hope not but wouldn't be surprised!

[Guest]

I honestly have no idea what this summer will hold. This poor spring is giving me 2021 vibes which was locally poor but I think wider forces will deliver a warmer summer if not record breakingly hot. Duffer for storms unfortunately. 

[lassie23]

I'm expecting snow in May and an alien invasion during a two-week heat wave in July.

[Sunny76]

36 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I honestly have no idea what this summer will hold. This poor spring is giving me 2021 vibes which was locally poor but I think wider forces will deliver a warmer summer if not record breakingly hot. Duffer for storms unfortunately. 

No, I think this summer will be a good one for storms. Some longer lasting storms this time. 
 

It will lean towards a dud summer overall though.

[Sunny76]

13 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I'm expecting snow in May and an alien invasion during a two-week heat wave in July.

Hmm, maybe this happen during the storms in June.

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

My gut feeling is for an anticyclonic May with plenty of spring warmth and sunshine, followed by a largely benign and forgettable summer. I don't think 35 Celsius will be reached anywhere in the UK this year.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Don]

44 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I'm expecting snow in May and an alien invasion during a two-week heat wave in July.

No, it will be too hot for them!! 

[weatherguru14]

Summer 2023 will be a decent Summer. nothing spectacular or nothing garbage. Acceptable for all.:) 

so get your brolly and bucket  spade ready.. just in case either scenario turns out. 

[daz_4]

The post from Tamara in the MOD thread is certainly worrying. We can already see what is happening in Portugal and Spain. The intensity and longetivity of the warm spell there is astouding. They basically jumped straight to summer in March. Once the influence of SSW fades, we are in for a ride I think and I'm not sure we are going to like it.

[Earthshine]

16 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

The post from Tamara in the MOD thread is certainly worrying. We can already see what is happening in Portugal and Spain. The intensity and longetivity of the warm spell there is astouding. They basically jumped straight to summer in March. Once the influence of SSW fades, we are in for a ride I think and I'm not sure we are going to like it.

I think we can only keep a lid on the heat for so long.  Iberia is getting baked already and with some an exceptionally warm airmass already I think we will be in for a surprise sooner than we think.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

I think we can only keep a lid on the heat for so long.  Iberia is getting baked already and with some an exceptionally warm airmass already I think we will be in for a surprise sooner than we think.

I think the heat has built over Iberia even earlier than last year and like you say, sooner or later this will have our name on it!!

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Don said:

I think the heat has built over Iberia even earlier than last year and like you say, sooner or later this will have our name on it!!

Thank goodness, need it to warm up!