Summer 2023 chat

[Skullzrulerz]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS

EC seasonal

Both virtually identical around the UK. Looks to me like a HP dominated summer is odds on.

EDIT: GLOSEA completes the set

 

Is there a website where you can find these long range model forecasting?

[Summer Sun]

42 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Is there a website where you can find these long range model forecasting?

ECM https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=EURO&base_time=202303010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202305020000

CFS https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e1Mon.html

Met office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

[Frigid]

Hope it's wrong tbh, we don't need another HP dominated summer like last year. Those extreme temps in July solidified my opinions on hot weather - don't like it at all. 

A varied summer, with cooler and warmer, wetter and drier intervals is welcome.. a bit like 2021 or 2017. 

[SummerShower]

4 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Hope it's wrong tbh, we don't need another HP dominated summer like last year. Those extreme temps in July solidified my opinions on hot weather - don't like it at all. 

A varied summer, with cooler and warmer, wetter and drier intervals is welcome.. a bit like 2021 or 2017. 

A warm thundery and quite wet summer would be nice.  Something like June 2003, July 2006 and August 2004 would work, with combining heat waves, thunderstorms but keeping drought issues at bay

[danm]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS

EC seasonal

Both virtually identical around the UK. Looks to me like a HP dominated summer is odds on.

EDIT: GLOSEA completes the set

 

Let’s hope this is correct. Would love another hot and sunny summer. 

[ANYWEATHER]

A very changeable summer ,above average rainfall for southern UK in picticular and temperatures close or slightly below average.  A higher percentage of thunderstorms as well.

[Don]

9 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS

EC seasonal

Both virtually identical around the UK. Looks to me like a HP dominated summer is odds on.

EDIT: GLOSEA completes the set

 

That's pretty strong agreement at this early stage and yes 40C would be likely once again if they come off! 

[reef]

3 hours ago, SummerShower said:

A warm thundery and quite wet summer would be nice.  Something like June 2003, July 2006 and August 2004 would work, with combining heat waves, thunderstorms but keeping drought issues at bay

That would give a summer CET of 17.8C, 0.1C higher than 1976.

No issues with a warm summer here as long as its 'nice' heat, i.e mid-20s and not too warm at night.

It'll be a bit of a worry though if we get a third top 10 (17.1C or higher) summer in six years.

[summer blizzard]

I suspect that both GLOSEA and UKMO are quite agressive with the Nino forecast.

[sunny_vale]

Undeniably a trend for longer and more intense heatwaves, even in summers that don't stand out otherwise. I would predict that whatever synoptics we are dealt with, there is still a high chance of at least one heatwave that tops out with temperatures topping at around or above 35C. High pressure also seems to be more dominant for longer, with 'chunks' of weather types rather than constant changeability. Considering we had just 3 years in between new heat records, and 4 years between equal hottest summers (2018 and 2022, correct me if I'm mistaken), I wouldn't be surprised to see another summer that delivers something outstanding. Of course, there are always exceptions, but the trend is fairly clear, especially exaggerated it seems for more southern and eastern areas.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am going for a fairly standard British summer this time round. Benign on the most part with the odd heatwave thrown in resulting in temps widely reaching the late 20s and early 30s, possibly 35°C at Heathrow. In terms of rainfall, I am guessing it will be a little drier dryer than average but not exceptionally so.

Edited March 12, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Metwatch]

14 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS

EC seasonal

Both virtually identical around the UK. Looks to me like a HP dominated summer is odds on.

EDIT: GLOSEA completes the set

 

As much as I'd like the hot and sunny days it wouldn't be good for any drought concerns regarding reservoir levels.

I imagine they might be a bit over the top with the signals.

[Dark Horse]

Well if the long range models are correct it might not be too dissimilar to 2018. Still early though. IIRC they got it kind of right with this winter's colder than normal start, so cannot rule out a hot start to summer. Be nice to have some thunderstorms though....that's my only summer interest.

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, Frigid said:

Hope it's wrong tbh, we don't need another HP dominated summer like last year. Those extreme temps in July solidified my opinions on hot weather - don't like it at all. 

A varied summer, with cooler and warmer, wetter and drier intervals is welcome.. a bit like 2021 or 2017. 

If we get another summer like 2021 in London, I’ll consider moving to Europe. 
 

2022 was the best summer for years(2018), with many long sunny days, despite it being too hot at times. I’ll take the heat over weeks of dull cloudy and cool, which is the alternative. 

41 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

Well if the long range models are correct it might not be too dissimilar to 2018. Still early though. IIRC they got it kind of right with this winter's colder than normal start, so cannot rule out a hot start to summer. Be nice to have some thunderstorms though....that's my only summer interest.

I think it’s going to be thundery towards the end of May and early June this time. May 24th last year had a decent thunderstorm in my area, during the daytime we had a couple of storms on and off.

[Dark Horse]

3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

If we get another summer like 2021 in London, I’ll consider moving to Europe. 
 

2022 was the best summer for years(2018), with many long sunny days, despite it being too hot at times. I’ll take the heat over weeks of dull cloudy and cool, which is the alternative. 

I think it’s going to be thundery towards the end of May and early June this time. May 24th last year had a decent thunderstorm in my area, during the daytime we had a couple of storms on and off.

Lucky you. Thunderstorms are becoming a rare species up here. Used to do quite well for them, not sure what happened there.

[Sunny76]

1 minute ago, Dark Horse said:

Lucky you. Thunderstorms are becoming a rare species up here. Used to do quite well for them, not sure what happened there.

Less moisture and less colder air to bump into the hot air? Just a theory.

[Sun Chaser]

16 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS

EC seasonal

Both virtually identical around the UK. Looks to me like a HP dominated summer is odds on.

EDIT: GLOSEA completes the set

 

I'm feeling a summer of "homegrown" heat instead of heat imported from the south or south west by a HP anomaly to the east. Lately we've had little in the way of sunny weather with temps in the high 20s/early 30s and more of an alternation between cloudy high teens/low 20s and intense, short bursts of heat. 2022 was an amazing summer and I think it'll be hard for 2023 to challenge it despite the obvious effects of climate change, however with such strong model agreement we can't rule out another sunny, dry season.

Perhaps something like June 2010, July 2013, August 2016 is more likely imo, which would still give us a very pleasant, sunny summer without intense heat. As much as I enjoy the excitement of an intense heatwave, I think some people could do without something as insanely hot (for the UK) as July 2022. And I think a wet spring is looking increasingly likely which will help reduce the impact of a dry summer.

[damianslaw]

Not a clue about summer, not feeling or sensing it, don't usually until April is out of the way.. and I'm always nervous when we have early sustained heat in April.. not so much dry weather.

Its a long long time since we have had a complete washout summer, yes there have been some wet ones 2015, 2016, 2017 - especially, 2019, 2020 and 2021 all produced lengthy wet periods at times, but the last terribly wet and cool one was 2012.

Fully expect some heat plumes from the south - become the norm nowadays. We seem to see sharper deeper atlantic troughs that stall and pump up increasing heat from N Africa.

[Ladyofthestorm]

My own thoughts for NW Scotland 

April Nly blocking dry but cool 

May continuing trend

June our wettest month 

July much better trending warmer and drier

August first half wet , second half drier 

September wet and windy! 

 

[WeatherArc]

18 hours ago, CreweCold said:

CFS

EC seasonal

Both virtually identical around the UK. Looks to me like a HP dominated summer is odds on.

EDIT: GLOSEA completes the set

 

Wow, incredible agreement this far out. Does raise some drought concerns with how dry its been. I do think we will have somewhat of a wet spring that could hopefully help refill reservoirs (saying that the GFS is trying its best to build HP over us by late March) but if these seasonal models do come off it may be too little too late unfortunately. It does also leave the door open for extreme heat (40°C +) although that will depend on the amount of heat over Spain and France. May be another bad year for wildfires though, especially if we are in drought conditions and start to see relative humidity below 20% like last summer.

Not linked to the models but i do wonder how hot it could realistically get in this country, i once thought anything above 38 was impossible but now i dont know, maybe around 45°C ?

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Wow, incredible agreement this far out. Does raise some drought concerns with how dry its been. I do think we will have somewhat of a wet spring that could hopefully help refill reservoirs (saying that the GFS is trying its best to build HP over us by late March) but if these seasonal models do come off it may be too little too late unfortunately. It does also leave the door open for extreme heat (40°C +) although that will depend on the amount of heat over Spain and France. May be another bad year for wildfires though, especially if we are in drought conditions and start to see relative humidity below 20% like last summer.

Not linked to the models but i do wonder how hot it could realistically get in this country, i once thought anything above 38 was impossible but now i dont know, maybe around 45°C ?

 

I think drought will become a concern. The ground dries out rapidly into May and it would take a monumental deluge to top the reservoirs up enough to see us through a protracted hot and dry summer. People forget how quickly water levels can drop in the warm season with increased demand. If the long range modelling is correct then water restrictions will almost certainly come into force at some point.

As for absolute maximum that it's possible to see in the UK, I'd guess 43-44C but obviously this potential is increasing year on year.

[alexisj9]

9 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Wow, incredible agreement this far out. Does raise some drought concerns with how dry its been. I do think we will have somewhat of a wet spring that could hopefully help refill reservoirs (saying that the GFS is trying its best to build HP over us by late March) but if these seasonal models do come off it may be too little too late unfortunately. It does also leave the door open for extreme heat (40°C +) although that will depend on the amount of heat over Spain and France. May be another bad year for wildfires though, especially if we are in drought conditions and start to see relative humidity below 20% like last summer.

Not linked to the models but i do wonder how hot it could realistically get in this country, i once thought anything above 38 was impossible but now i dont know, maybe around 45°C ?

 

No thanks.

[Sun Chaser]

37 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Wow, incredible agreement this far out. Does raise some drought concerns with how dry its been. I do think we will have somewhat of a wet spring that could hopefully help refill reservoirs (saying that the GFS is trying its best to build HP over us by late March) but if these seasonal models do come off it may be too little too late unfortunately. It does also leave the door open for extreme heat (40°C +) although that will depend on the amount of heat over Spain and France. May be another bad year for wildfires though, especially if we are in drought conditions and start to see relative humidity below 20% like last summer.

Not linked to the models but i do wonder how hot it could realistically get in this country, i once thought anything above 38 was impossible but now i dont know, maybe around 45°C ?

 

To be fair I think 19 July 2022 had the perfect conditions to get as close as possible to an absolute maximum (for now): very dry ground, very high SSTs, near-peak sun strength and day length, high pressure already heating up the ground in the weeks leading up to it, an intense pool of heat in Iberia, and the low placed in exactly the perfect location to draw up lots of southerly air at peak daylight. Even Plymouth got to 35C when I thought it was impossible to get over 32C here! So I find it very difficult to believe anything over around 42C is physically possible at this moment in time.

With the current rate of climate change I think 45C will be attainable within a couple of decades which is very scary. But it's a definite possibility.

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I think drought will become a concern. The ground dries out rapidly into May and it would take a monumental deluge to top the reservoirs up enough to see us through a protracted hot and dry summer. People forget how quickly water levels can drop in the warm season with increased demand. If the long range modelling is correct then water restrictions will almost certainly come into force at some point.

As for absolute maximum that it's possible to see in the UK, I'd guess 43-44C but obviously this potential is increasing year on year.

I think 45c would be pushing it, given the fact we are surrounded by large areas of water.

Another 40-42c is possible though. I just can’t see it happening this summer

Late July to early august will most likely record a daily high of 30-34c, with night time lows around 21-23c. So, still very uncomfortable for sleeping and too hot for some people.

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I think 45c would be pushing it, given the fact we are surrounded by large areas of water.

Another 40-42c is possible though. I just can’t see it happening this summer

Late July to early august will most likely record a daily high of 30-34c, with night time lows around 21-23c. So, still very uncomfortable for sleeping and too hot for some people.

Yes, it has to be remembered that 40°C last was achieved in conjunction with an  exceptionally hot airmass, it wasn't a bog standard hot airmass.