Summer 2023 chat

[SunSean]

8 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

And of course June 2015 was quite cool so while nice and sunny and dry it was by no means a classic.

I think we're currently in a June that will be considered one of the best, depending which way things go with the modelling in 5-6 days' time! What happens in the final week will make the difference between a classic like 1992 or just a "nice" June like 17/18. 

(I would also like to mention 2021 as being one of the best Junes in the west as the second half was often warmer than the first, overall a sunny and warm month here. But i hear things were very different in the east)

 

Yes, June 2021 for my area in the South East was actually extremely similar to this June so far but both broke down on the 17th which I find bizarre. The 2nd half of June 2021 for these parts, was so horrendous, that it completely negated how good the 1st half was! Hopefully the same will not happen this year because its a long time coming getting a classic June.

[Summer8906]

20 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

And of course June 2015 was quite cool so while nice and sunny and dry it was by no means a classic.

I think we're currently in a June that will be considered one of the best, depending which way things go with the modelling in 5-6 days' time! What happens in the final week will make the difference between a classic like 1992 or just a "nice" June like 17/18. 

(I would also like to mention 2021 as being one of the best Junes in the west as the second half was often warmer than the first, overall a sunny and warm month here. But i hear things were very different in the east)

 

Interesting, I thought the good weather in 2021 post mid-June was restricted to the northwest, so northwest England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Didn't realise the southwest hung on to the good weather.

Here the weather broke a couple of days earlier than this year (I forget the precise day, it was a weekday, maybe the 14th or 15th, definitely just before mid-month, but I remember a great mass of mid-level cloud advancing from the SW during the evening which produced rain but no thunder). After that, there was a series of slack and slow-moving lows which produced almost continuous dull and damp weather and cool by day. Each week for the remainder of the month had about two half-decent days, in cols between the lows: by sheer luck one of these tended to occur at the weekend while the other was around Wednesday.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[Earthshine]

So far this decade we've had two pretty warm Augusts.  2020 and 2022 had CET values of 17.7C and 18.7C respectively.  I wonder when we will see the next 19C+ August.  If I were betting I would say before 2030.

[Weather26]

2 hours ago, sunnijim said:

We had this 'doom and gloom" from the get go last summer in here.

Talk of the Atlantic waking up,North westerly, no route back to warm and settled....

The list went on and some how we ended up with a prolonged hot summer that was still going at times in October.

One day the Atlantic will awaken properly,but it has been in a slumber for nearly two years now,( all seasons)

 

No it hasn't-The Atlantic has woken up twice since last summer (from October all the way through to the middle of January and then again from the Snowday in March to the around the Coronation in May) and will keep awakening before this Summer is over-This thread just wants a repeat of Summer 76/July 22 every year for the rest of time well let me make it clear, we are not going to get it.

[Summer8906]

5 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

So far this decade we've had two pretty warm Augusts.  2020 and 2022 had CET values of 17.7C and 18.7C respectively.  I wonder when we will see the next 19C+ August.  If I were betting I would say before 2030.

That said arguably August 2020 could not be considered a good month. The high value was entirely caused by that extreme week-long humidwave and, besides the cool and dry final three days of the month, the rest of the time it was near-constantly unsettled.

I'd actually rate August 2020 worse than 2014, controversially.

[Sun Chaser]

4 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Interesting, I thought the good weather in 2021 post mid-June was restricted to the northwest, so northwest England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Didn't realise the southwest hung on to the good weather.

The northwest did fare better than us I think as the end of June but it was decent enough here too. Ours didn't properly break until the 21st, the heat left but the rain never really came before that. An interesting end to the month here actually, the 21st and 27th/28th were utterly miserable and had non-stop torrential rain but we had some lovely days reach into the mid twenties with clear blue skies at the same time, like the 23rd/24th and 30th.

[Summer8906]

9 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

The northwest did fare better than us I think as the end of June but it was decent enough here too. Ours didn't properly break until the 21st, the heat left but the rain never really came before that. An interesting end to the month here actually, the 21st and 27th/28th were utterly miserable and had non-stop torrential rain but we had some lovely days reach into the mid twenties with clear blue skies at the same time, like the 23rd/24th and 30th.

Interesting to hear that. It was synoptically unusual, I do remember that.

The poor weather continued until around mid-July here though I do remember a slightly longer more settled interlude on the first two or three days of July.

22 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

Being honest I think our run of terrible Augusts is long gone, of course it will always be more unsettled than the other two summer months as the sea is warmer but we've had some better ones in recent years. 2016 was nice, most of 2018 was good, 2019 was decent, 2020 had a very hot spell (though did turn miserable later) and 2022 was of course a classic. I think the era of the stinker Augusts coming in quick succession (2008, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015) is over

Perhaps though (as I said above) I'd rate 2020 as one of the worst: of that list only 2008 and 2010 were clearly worse IMO. The week-long hot spell was not enough to save it, rather like the fine warm starts to June 1982 and 1985 were not enough to compensate for some very poor weather later.

2016 was qualitatively slightly above average, I will agree there, but 2018 and 2019 were both very meh and beaten by a majority of Augusts in the 1981-2005 period. The only Augusts I would rate at average or above since 2006 are 2007 (average), 2009 (average), 2012 (average), 2013 (slightly above), 2016 (slightly above) and 2022 (much above, though I wasn't in the UK, so relying on second-hand info).

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[richie3846]

55 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Not here unfortunately. Hoping the sunshine returns next week though.

I'd be surprised if you don't get some sunny spells this weekend. We've got clear blue already, and that cloud is shifting north east fast

[sunnijim]

12 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

No it hasn't-The Atlantic has woken up twice since last summer (from October all the way through to the middle of January and then again from the Snowday in March to the around the Coronation in May) and will keep awakening before this Summer is over-This thread just wants a repeat of Summer 76/July 22 every year for the rest of time well let me make it clear, we are not going to get it.

You are talking nonsense imo

Your theory is based on nothing more than an agenda ( Show us evidence that there will be no 76/22 redux) I sure as hell can't prove there will be, any more than you can prove their won't.

I guess the idea that the Atlantic has woken up is subjective, perhaps based on on where you live?but with no named storms all winter, yes,a few incursions off the water but no raging jet stream for any length of time,I maintain we have been in a relatively benign state this last two years.

As for the future, are you the ghost of Mystic Meg?

Edited June 17, 2023 by sunnijim

[Sun Chaser]

6 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Interesting to hear that. It was synoptically unusual, I do remember that.

The poor weather continued until around mid-July here though I do remember a slightly longer more settled interlude on the first two or three days of July.

The start of July 2021 was very very wet and dull here, we recorded around 80mm and 20 hours of sunshine in the first 12 days but that was the only real bad spell of summer 2021 here, hence why I don't dislike that summer like most do! Then it suddenly flipped on the 12th and we had the most beautiful sunny two week spell of weather which featured us hitting 30c three days in a row for the first time in decades. Because of this the month ended up being one of the warmest Julys, just 0.5c off 2013 but I do have very mixed feelings about it. 2021 was a very synoptically unusual summer for sure!

Edited June 17, 2023 by plymsunshine

[Earthshine]

10 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

That said arguably August 2020 could not be considered a good month. The high value was entirely caused by that extreme week-long humidwave and, besides the cool and dry final three days of the month, the rest of the time it was near-constantly unsettled.

I'd actually rate August 2020 worse than 2014, controversially.

First half of August 2020 was very good here.  Although it broke down quite significantly in the second half.  September 2020 had some good warm spells too.

[Sun Chaser]

Just now, Earthshine said:

First half of August 2020 was very good here.  Although it broke down quite significantly in the second half.  September 2020 had some good warm spells too.

Really liked September 2020 actually. To hit 25c in mid September is very unusual here! Dry and sunny almost all the way through as well, only the 24th and 30th were properly wet and autumnal, which of course led into a miserable October lol

[Summer8906]

10 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

First half of August 2020 was very good here.  Although it broke down quite significantly in the second half.  September 2020 had some good warm spells too.

Interesting as here the fine spell here was restricted to the 6th-12th. I also think Sun 2nd was sunny but that was an isolated sunny day with a rather cloudy southwesterly type dominating the opening days, and one or two weak frontal systems producing some drizzle.

Will agree about September 2020 though, in some ways similar to 2019 but the unsettled spell at the end was very much less bad than that of 2019, being northerly rather than SW-ly and still mostly sunny even when the warmth had disappeared. Of course the threat of renewed lockdown started appearing in September 2020 which darkened the mood somewhat, and (as seems to happen every year) the 30th was indeed dull and wet.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[Azazel]

It’s been a lovely period of weather here. I’ve very much enjoyed sitting out in the garden in the late evening in just shorts and t-shirt. Sad to see it come to an end.

[Sun Chaser]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

It’s been a lovely period of weather here. I’ve very much enjoyed sitting out in the garden in the late evening in just shorts and t-shirt. Sad to see it come to an end.

It could very easily be back soon if the GFS 18z is anything to go by!

[John88B]

9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

It’s been a lovely period of weather here. I’ve very much enjoyed sitting out in the garden in the late evening in just shorts and t-shirt. Sad to see it come to an end.

Yep a fantastic spell of weather the last few weeks have been. Still very useable warm weather for the next few days and then every chance of even warmer, sunny weather incoming from the middle of next week, particularly for more southern and eastern areas.

Nothing to be despondent about if you like summery weather.

Edited June 17, 2023 by John88B

[GokouD]

This time yesterday I was out in the paddling pool with the kids in bright sunshine, now it's 16 C and raining. Hard not to hate British weather sometimes!

[Summer8906]

2 minutes ago, GokouD said:

This time yesterday I was out in the paddling pool with the kids in bright sunshine, now it's 16 C and raining. Hard not to hate British weather sometimes!

To be fair, sudden changes from sun to rain can occur in other climates too. What's bad about ours is how once unsettled weather gets in, it can get locked in for weeks. Other climates might have three or four days of dull, wet and sometimes extremely cool weather - but the difference is that a high then builds back in and the fine weather comes back.

[Weather26]

22 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

It could very easily be back soon if the GFS 18z is anything to go by!

Or possibly not as since last night the model's have been all over the shop.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Weather26

[Summer8906]

Just now, Weather26 said:

Or possibly not as since last night the model's have bee all over the shop.

Can perhaps see some similarities to what happened in 2010, in the sense that the trend is for the jetstream to sink south and the Atlantic start to affect things, but a couple of weeks earlier. The good news is that July 2010 wasn't that bad, reasonable temperatures and dry in the south albeit cloudy.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

I wonder if there is any particular explanation for August being disproportionately wet and dull, or alternatively September being disproportionately dry? While the trend from June to December is generally downwards, August is a marked trough and September a marked upturn, as if those two months are "the wrong way round".

August is actually the sunniest month of the year in London in percentage terms with 45% of the total possible sun. 

[Summer8906]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

August is actually the sunniest month of the year in London in percentage terms with 45% of the total possible sun. 

Surprised to hear that, though to be fair most Julys since 2007 have been rather cloudy and Junes haven't been great either. What time period is this for?

For the past 15 years I wouldn't be surprised if April was the sunniest month of the year...

[sunnijim]

12 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Worrying is the large area of cooler temperatures to the SW, reaching as far east as the Sussex coast. Given it's not a fundamentally cool airmass, that would suggest a lot of dull and perhaps drizzly weather in southern coastal counties; 26C in East Anglia is about as much use to us here as 26C in Poland or the northeastern USA!

The dreaded tropical maritime, never good for us. Not in summer, and not in winter.

A sadly typical temperature profile for the past 15 years, which, due from what I can see to an increased incidence of SW-lies and decreased incidence of NW-lies in summer, have frequently seen the quite-nearby continent roasting, East Anglia getting decent warm temperatures and sunshine at times, but central southern England under permanent cloud and damp.

At the risk of appearing to jump on everyone's back today( not the intention) but this is another post that I don't have evidence for ( just along the coast from you)

My records suggest a higher frequency of South,  SE,East,and NE airflows during Summer months generally in the 15 years you speak of..

This has led to sunnier skies generally and warmer temperatures, the opposite of a prevailing SW airflow along the coast in Hampshire and "cloudy damp' Summers.

Quite the difference a 100 or so miles makes perhaps...?

Maybe I have misunderstood your post.

[MP-R]

15 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

The start of July 2021 was very very wet and dull here, we recorded around 80mm and 20 hours of sunshine in the first 12 days but that was the only real bad spell of summer 2021 here, hence why I don't dislike that summer like most do! Then it suddenly flipped on the 12th and we had the most beautiful sunny two week spell of weather which featured us hitting 30c three days in a row for the first time in decades. Because of this the month ended up being one of the warmest Julys, just 0.5c off 2013 but I do have very mixed feelings about it. 2021 was a very synoptically unusual summer for sure!

Same here! I think many in the southeast consider the second half of June 2021 like the same half in 2007, but here it wasn’t bad at all with only a handful of dull days.

First third of July was very wet indeed, but then like you say great from the 12th onwards until the 26th, then an autumnal end. That low on the 30th felt more like a late September day.

Equally, August had a handful of wet days, mainly between the 05th and 09th, but the rest of the month was mainly dry and anticyclonic. Just a shame it was so cloudy! Same with the September. A lot of warm usable weather but too much cloud. I do have many photos from that august with sunshine though.

August 01st - Clevedon 

August 04th - Clifton, Bristol

August 10th - Clifton Suspension Bridge

August 14th - Clevedon 

August 18th

August 21st - Thunderstorm nearby

August 22nd 

August 25th - Bath

August 29th - Clevedon

[cheese]

1 minute ago, Summer8906 said:

Surprised to hear that, though to be fair most Julys since 2007 have been rather cloudy and Junes haven't been great either. What time period is this for?

For the past 15 years I wouldn't be surprised if April was the sunniest month of the year...

It’s for the 1991-2020 period. 
 

For the past 15 years it could certainly be different though. 

Edited June 17, 2023 by cheese