Record Breaking / Abnormal Weather Events Globally

[Midlands Ice Age]

46 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Are you saying it's happening more frequently, because it's happening in different places every year, so we shouldn't be worried about it?

Without the full analysis of all events its not possible to decide.

It looks to me as if (according to distribution analysis) we are not getting any more than one would expect from the normal distribution analysis of events.  That is for the 1 in 100 year patterns.

I suspect that what we are seeing is that due to the new world wide communications capability we are actually getting many more picked up through out the world.  Have we in the UK seen many more 1 in a 100 years events? They do not strike me as though they are occuring more frequently than distribution patterns would dictate.

Including last years event (max temp), I can think of only a handful in the last century (as discussed in my first post), which  would qualify.

 

The BBC seem to be in a prime position to extract the worldwide data.

I think that much more work is required  if we are to extract the maximum from the available data. 

MIA

 

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[SnowBear]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Without the full analysis of all events its not possible to decide.

It looks to me as if (according to distribution analysis) we are not getting any more than one would expect from the normal distribution analysis of events.  That is for the 1 in 100 year patterns.

I suspect that what we are seeing is that due to the new world wide communications capability we are actually getting many more picked up through out the world.  Have we in the UK seen many more 1 in a 100 years events? They do not strike me as though they are occuring more frequently than distribution patterns would dictate.

Including last years event (max temp), I can think of only a handful in the last century (as discussed in my first post), which  would qualify.

 

The BBC seem to be in a prime position to extract the worldwide data.

I think that much more work is required  if we are to extract the maximum from the available data. 

MIA

 

 

I do tend to agree here where in the last... 20 years? Communications have improved immensely even in remote areas. 

Some decades ago you may only have got to hear of extreme weather perhaps days or even weeks later as a small article in a newspaper, now it's almost real time headline news and we can even watch it as it happens. 

Additionally we have many many more reporting sites, whereas before in remote areas a reporting station may have been in a local town, now that town is surrounded by reporting stations and perhaps records which may have been missed are now picked up due to that much wider spread of data recording sites. Some of those additional locations maybe more conducive in having an extreme event compared to past locations. 

This is not to take away from what we are seeing with heatwaves etc, although I do kinda feel some media outlets jump on the band wagon especially where they are saying Greece is having it's hottest summer for 50 years. I can remember Greece was always known to be very hot. Once the all time record breaks then perhaps it becomes newsworthy in relation to climate change. 

The extremes we are seeing from Kirkcaldy's posts are in my view just as newsworthy as the heat in Southern Europe and the Atlantic Marine Heatwave. 

I think we also need to be wary of records broken in vastly expanding cities, they are creating their own climate, and with the really large cities that spills outward into the surrounding area too. 

I do think we have to be cautious now as I suspect what we are seeing now is perhaps more due to cleaner air. It has been said by some in Spain recently that the increase in sunlight reaching the ground is meaning things become drier and hotter. 

It's like if you place a tray of water on your patio, if its 30°c but cloudy it will warm a little, but still relatively cool compared to the air temperature. If the sun comes out it can soon warm up and be quite warm if you put your hand in it. 

If we have had a decrease in clouds since the Clean Air Act (and I've seen its something like a 3% decrease in low level clouds) then that must mean more sunlight reaching the ground or sea surface. 

Is the anomaly we are seeing in the Atlantic this year due to that? I don't know. 

Edited July 22, 2023 by SnowBear
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[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 22/07/2023 at 17:06, Midlands Ice Age said:

Following on from the above  (and having received little feedback), I have been observing the number of events as reported above, and decided that 'unusual events'  seem to be occuring at great regularity.  This is being highlitghted by thee BBC reporting of these events on its premier News programs at increasing frequency.

A lot of data has been reported, but are they actually getting more frequent then one would expect at normal distributions?

KIrkcaldy Weather reports not just on new highs, but on all events of all types, many of which would be missed, if not shown on here..

I used the above post I produced a couple of months ago to try and find out what normal distribution rates should actually be. 

As discussed above the UK  (England for ease of numbers) is a reasonable case to use as a rule of thumb, due to its size and the completeness of its recordings.

For ease of numbers I will assume its 50,000 sq miles.   Actually as above its about 1 in 1200 of thee earths land surface area,

If we assume that records cover about 50 sq miles (4 by 12miles)  (seems a reasonable number in order to eliminate total local events) then  -

A 1yr in 10 years event will occur as 1 event in the area but will occur 1000 times over England's total area over 10 years, and will occur 1.2 million times over the earth's ground surface area. This means that each year we will see 100 occurrences in England overall, OR about 1 every 4 days (on average - somewhere in the UK). It strikes me that this is a little bit too frequent - but not far out when these happenings occur in batches. 

Similarly one expects that a 1 in a 100years event as above will happen 100 times over England (about 1 every 3 days on average, and will occur 120.000 times over thee earths ground surface area  in 100 years.. This means about 1.200 will occur each year somewhere on the surface... Averaging about 4 every day.

Add to this that we are now seeing multiple event types being measured (high, low temperature,  snowfall and rainfall, as well as wind) and it is easy to see that even at normal distributions one can expect many events of this type to be reported each year, to give even normal patterns for the earth's measurements. 

The numbers above appear a little bit 'frequent; but that is what the distribution reports dictate.

Interesting ....    does the number of being recorded by news media mean anything abnormal?

Perhaps one needs to give comparative numbers for the individual elements of the earths climate to decide upon whatis really happening.

MIA

As you know I always enjoy your input MIA, thanks.

I've planned to get my thoughts connecting to the increasing number of record weather conditions and abnormal events ie snow in areas that wouldn't normally see in whichever month it is occurring and often at the intensity which I've been reporting like the Ladakh region in the recent weeks. It is some of the most complex developments in the climate related area no question so I'll try to portray my thinking as easily and clear as I can though it certainly is a tricky task

I'd like to begin on the rainfall situations 

Since April the number of incredible flash flood rainfall scenarios has been ridiculous we're talking events that reached the percentage of occurance per 1000 years on MULTIPLE occasions which began in Fort Lauderdale 

 

On 29/06/2023 at 17:24, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Insanity 

 

This has really cranked up in frequency over the past month roughly 

There has been 3>>4 events in just the past 2 weeks (solely US based)

On 18/07/2023 at 17:50, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

To get an ALL TIME State record is no easy feat 

An interesting focal point of continuous rain and severe activity has been Colorado 

We see how anomalously active in terms of severe weather which covers a high percentage of the US 

Other countries which are experiencing abnormal rain in such quick periods are especially Japan + China 

The most recent extraordinary event occurred over Nova Scotia potentially another all time record for the entire province, madness 

Where does my thinking go as to the main factors why these rain related records have been particularly prominent in 2023?

It simply cannot be coincidence having the volume of water vapour dominant within the stratosphere originating from Hunga Tonga

Those values are mega especially at 10hpa

Having covered in various posts of mine over in the model thread my intuition was leading me to developments from the stratosphere connecting to such a retrogressive nature to the atmosphere from around April which Judah Cohen and a few other sources have confirmed 

The way I'm thinking in easiest translation terminology is the saying what goes up must come down. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[SnowBear]

I am truly beginning to believe that this year isn't about climate warming it's more about Mother Nature showing her hand and perhaps just how powerful she is and how insignificant we are perhaps are. 

One volcano pushing out mostly water and not ash and aerosols, a weakening Atlantic Ocean current system which isn't unprecedented, a strong La Nina, and oops, there goes what we thought we knew. 

I think we have come to expect the climate to be mostly benign and constant over time, but I feel we may be seeing just how it can at times rapidly change in a very short space of time... And we need to keep up. 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[matty40s]

The Morocco floods were a fortnight ago.

[alexisj9]

9 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Is this sundays low?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

23 hours ago, matty40s said:

The Morocco floods were a fortnight ago.

A significant chunk of my time has been focused within my posts in the model thread so a bit of catch up work to do in this thread... It'll be caught up before long though... however with crazy amounts of records being eclipsed daily it's a lot of work

23 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Is this sundays low?

Hey Alexis do you mean tropical storm Don? A section of energy from Don contributed to the intensity of the low/storm that went through Ireland & Scotland from the 13th>17th

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 25/07/2023 at 17:56, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Since April the number of incredible flash flood rainfall scenarios has been ridiculous we're talking events that reached the percentage of occurance per 1000 years on MULTIPLE occasions which began in Fort Lauderdale 

Crazy .... absurd Deja Vu anyone?

Do we have any members who specialise in probabilities? @Midlands Ice Age?

Seeing such records being smashed in the same region a mere 3 months apart I'm fast approaching the stage of being lost for words 

 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

A significant chunk of my time has been focused within my posts in the model thread so a bit of catch up work to do in this thread... It'll be caught up before long though... however with crazy amounts of records being eclipsed daily it's a lot of work

Hey Alexis do you mean tropical storm Don? A section of energy from Don contributed to the intensity of the low/storm that went through Ireland & Scotland from the 13th>17th

That actually makes sense, I've mentioned that this month has felt like every low has been a tropical storm before hand, seems at least on was.

[Midlands Ice Age]

40 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Crazy .... absurd Deja Vu anyone?

Do we have any members who specialise in probabilities? @Midlands Ice Age?

Seeing such records being smashed in the same region a mere 3 months apart I'm fast approaching the stage of being lost for words 

 

KW..

 I am watching your reports closely.

Unfortunately, I am being hampered in doing too much analysis as MIcrosoft Edge stops me viewing most things on Twitter!!

I therefore cannot see the detail in the figures, and hence find it difficult to look at the individual links...

HOWEVER  your latest post talks about a second 1 in a thousand event, when it talks about exceeding a figure set back within the last 10 years.

I can no longer see any of the the details as Edge has now blocked anything on your links.!

My point is that from memory that a 7inch rainfall (which is about 1inch more than the previous record) is unlikely to be a new 1 in a 1000 year event.

I suspect that this particular circumstance is due to thunderstorms becoming 'stuck' in the area. This is more likely to be caused by the lack of motion in the atmosphere -  which is currently evident in many areas of the earth's surface.

This last event looks to be a 1 in 10 to 1 in 50 year occurrence, and could be compared with events in Camborne and the Lynton and Lynmouth storms in the UK.. 

 I agree that coming so closely after the April one is unusual, but the atmospheric circumstances look very similar. 

Snowbear has already suggested possible reasons for this new event.

MIA 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

 

 

[matty40s]

This is ridiculous, as well as concerning, a one off event can happen, this follows similar 2 weeks ago..

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]