Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[northriding]

18 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

No storms here since August 2020. A few distant rumbles since bit not really close enough to call a local storm lol. No rain here for a month either

The NW seems to have had the lion's share of the homegrown storms over the last year or two, so must be awful bad luck for you to keep missing out.

[Dark Horse]

Been a great day here for storms. Best for a few years

[Dangerous55019]

Looks like I threw the towel in too soon!

Looks like I’ve got a high elevation storm!

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Alright well I don't necessarily agree with Jay's map, I think he mightve overdone the high maybe but I gave him the freedom to do the map all by himself today. Here's my discussion;

Convective Outlook  

Monday 08:00 - Tuesday 04:00

Significant bouyancy and CAPE should provide another day of strong thunderstorms. 2000 J/KG of CAPE with surface lift fairly strong should mean that breaks in cloud will allow for surface heating to be strong enough to break capping eventually.

However, saturation looks to be fairly strong weakening lightning potential and providing a layer of cloud somewhere. However, that layer should be broken through just not as strongly as elsewhere.

This is troubling the models at the moment and leading to lots of different solutions. Given the pure amount of CAPE, especially wih 150+ J/KG of 3CAPE. Therefore strong storms with frequent lightning and perhaps low-end severe hail (1 inch) is plausible somewhere, mostly likely within the moderate and high risks. Despite that saturation.

Moisture is high and with low LCL's, 30 to 40mm's of rainfall within an hour locally is possible in areas. Similar to the last few days. So a severe for surface flooding possible and a small chance of low-end severe hail.

Entrainment CAPE being low due to forcing and/or tall LCL's and short EL's is unlikely. Having taken a look at a sounding on the AROME in a fairly good area to get a general idea, 827(I'm assuming metres) LCL's and 12km EL's and possibly locally taller,is a good sign for a lot of CAPE to be taken up.

Forcing is strong enough for clusters or possible an MCS again so despite weak shearing, storms should remain fairly long-lived. If shearing were higher, I suspect we would've upgraded to a high risk further south and west as well even with the cloud cover issue but being fairly weak it means that air parcels have to remain in an open sector for convection for fairly long and also be very quick at connecting to be anything more than a pulse storm.

So given that, I suspect that a lot of cumulus congestus will go up early afternoon but keep recycling the convection centre hitting the cap and cloud until one of the convection centres bursts through it. Then we'll get a proper storm to form and then more and more keep forming as they all burst through the capping and possible cloud then we'll likely get a stronger build up of bouyancy and more vigorous convection than modelled as we've seen on Saturday and Sunday. That should happen widespread especially across the moderate and high risk areas.   London might be a bit too south to see the strongest storms and only seeing weaker ones if at all but there has been a slight southerly and easterly trend on most models recently. This cap breaking likely means that initiation won't be aroun 1-2pm like normal but more 3-4PM but quickly upscaling into clusters.

In these clusters or possible MCS's, some models are showing 80+ km/h wind gusts localised so some low-end severe wind gusts are plausible but still unlikely and in very localised spots.

Generally 1 inch hail and flash flooding is what's given the severe risks. This is a very similar day to Saturday and Sunday but a slight shift of area.

In areas of Scotland, especially the south and the northeast, some fairly strong storms are also possible away from the main area further south so there's an increase in risk there.

Similarly there's an increased risk in parts of Ireland and northern Ireland. So a slight risk has been added there and linked up with the Scottish risk.

Another chase on the cards,...that would be three days in a row although yesterday was hard to catch as they was moving north pretty fast

i would be tired tomorrow though after getting up at 5:00am but finish at 2pm,...i will make that judgement tomorrow

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

11 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Well... what a day. Saw plenty of storms through the Midlands. I'm still out (near to Stoke) and just about to head home but did better than yesterday I think. This despite being stuck in traffic for two motorway accidents. To be fair, the second accident killed my chase. I was worried the first had before it even started.

After attempting to intercept a storm heading westwards towards Lutterworth, I ended up stuck in traffic on the M1. The storm passed over as I sat in congestion and it produced rain and the odd big flash of lightning/bang of thunder. I couldn't see much as i was trapped in the car surrounded by lorries, and I felt an overwhelming sense of dread that this was the end of my day. Luckily the traffic cleared and the storms hadn't moved far.

I then chased what was a rapidly developing line of storms along the M6 towards Coventry and then M42 southbound around Birmingham, taking in Solihull, Redditch and then onto the M5 northbound (cue second accident) through Birmingham. The fact they were slow moving meant I could get out and film ahead of them a bit before jumping back in the car to get ahead again. However, by the time I was free of the second accident the storms were moving away. I tried to catch them up on the M6 but to no avail. That was OK, it was my way home anyway.

Much like yesterday the rain was torrential, big huge raindrops and accompanied by gusty winds. The storm heading near to Solihull had some very lively winds ahead of it. Most of the lightning was high based flashing again, but there were quite a lot of flashes and occasionally there was a big IC or CG with a loud bang of thunder. Whilst driving, some of the thunder was very loud.

All in all, im satisfied with today. It was still flashing occasionally over Stoke up until about 10 minutes ago but the main action is now over Shropshire.

Heading home now to sleep, then going to be doing it all again tomorrow!

Really impressed by your tenacity - it’s funny how when I chase this kind of setup the rain is rarely the problem it’s just about keeping up, but for you it’s about getting close enough to see something significant and then getting away before the rain scuppers all plans

today it feels like I lucked out for structure but was never approached by the storm. We were the breeding ground (rarely that’s not the case) and I would love one day to be presented with an approaching stormfront - but the traffic in these situations can wipe out any hope of getting to a good spot for obvservations

Kudos for your energy and your relentless spirit! Driving in or near storms can be horrible  

 

edit: just to add, it was a fast storm and I couldn’t keep up. Always seems to be the case I MUST MOVE TO FRANCE!

Edited June 11, 2023 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Turquoise]

5 minutes ago, northriding said:

The NW seems to have had the lion's share of the homegrown storms over the last year or two, so must be awful bad luck for you to keep missing out.

I know. Our luck is horrendous. 

[Azazel]

Looking at the models for tomorrow, looks remarkably similar to today really. Can see another MCS ploughing through the midlands with sweet f**k all here.

Gut feeling tells me it’ll be further north and west though to affect more of wales/north wales. 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Azazel

[viking_smb]

i'm stuck at work tomorrow so enjoy peeps 

[Foxgloves]

Just getting some lighting out to the west now

[Harry]

25 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Alright well I don't necessarily agree with Jay's map, I think he mightve overdone the high maybe but I gave him the freedom to do the map all by himself today. Here's my discussion;

Convective Outlook  

Monday 08:00 - Tuesday 04:00

Significant bouyancy and CAPE should provide another day of strong thunderstorms. 2000 J/KG of CAPE with surface lift fairly strong should mean that breaks in cloud will allow for surface heating to be strong enough to break capping eventually.

However, saturation looks to be fairly strong weakening lightning potential and providing a layer of cloud somewhere. However, that layer should be broken through just not as strongly as elsewhere.

This is troubling the models at the moment and leading to lots of different solutions. Given the pure amount of CAPE, especially wih 150+ J/KG of 3CAPE. Therefore strong storms with frequent lightning and perhaps low-end severe hail (1 inch) is plausible somewhere, mostly likely within the moderate and high risks. Despite that saturation.

Moisture is high and with low LCL's, 30 to 40mm's of rainfall within an hour locally is possible in areas. Similar to the last few days. So a severe for surface flooding possible and a small chance of low-end severe hail.

Entrainment CAPE being low due to forcing and/or tall LCL's and short EL's is unlikely. Having taken a look at a sounding on the AROME in a fairly good area to get a general idea, 827(I'm assuming metres) LCL's and 12km EL's and possibly locally taller,is a good sign for a lot of CAPE to be taken up.

Forcing is strong enough for clusters or possible an MCS again so despite weak shearing, storms should remain fairly long-lived. If shearing were higher, I suspect we would've upgraded to a high risk further south and west as well even with the cloud cover issue but being fairly weak it means that air parcels have to remain in an open sector for convection for fairly long and also be very quick at connecting to be anything more than a pulse storm.

So given that, I suspect that a lot of cumulus congestus will go up early afternoon but keep recycling the convection centre hitting the cap and cloud until one of the convection centres bursts through it. Then we'll get a proper storm to form and then more and more keep forming as they all burst through the capping and possible cloud then we'll likely get a stronger build up of bouyancy and more vigorous convection than modelled as we've seen on Saturday and Sunday. That should happen widespread especially across the moderate and high risk areas.   London might be a bit too south to see the strongest storms and only seeing weaker ones if at all but there has been a slight southerly and easterly trend on most models recently. This cap breaking likely means that initiation won't be aroun 1-2pm like normal but more 3-4PM but quickly upscaling into clusters.

In these clusters or possible MCS's, some models are showing 80+ km/h wind gusts localised so some low-end severe wind gusts are plausible but still unlikely and in very localised spots.

Generally 1 inch hail and flash flooding is what's given the severe risks. This is a very similar day to Saturday and Sunday but a slight shift of area.

In areas of Scotland, especially the south and the northeast, some fairly strong storms are also possible away from the main area further south so there's an increase in risk there.

Similarly there's an increased risk in parts of Ireland and northern Ireland. So a slight risk has been added there and linked up with the Scottish risk.

Love the optimism but I can’t help but think this is a little too far SE for my neck of the woods…but I’ll take it, cheers @Eagle Eye

Edited June 11, 2023 by Harry

[Metwatch]

A screen grab from one of the clips of a CG this evening, roughly 3 to 3.5km from where I was standing. Tomorrow as you say @Azazel quite similar areas at risk and if anything the storms potentially a tad more intense.

[markw2680]

24 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Possibly too far west but I don't think we did top badly.

Pretty good job if u ask me

[ChezWeather]

Ended up staying somewhat local around the W/SW side of the Peaks, seen a few flashes and some torrential rain at points, not a bad afternoon out!

 

A pic of my chase vehicle warhorse

[Rufus Butterfield]

Well I guess I’m outta the game tomorrow as well. Good luck to you midlanders!

[SarahWxm]

17 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Looks like I threw the towel in too soon!

Looks like I’ve got a high elevation storm!

Can see and hear the storm out towards your way  

[ancientsolar]

Well it was a complete bust for South Wales - this mornings rain that stretched to the south coast did really inhibit us, although or the Northern edge, some storms did develop and through Brecon and the hills toward Snowdonia - 

Of course, it was the small parcel of cloud in South London that dominated events today, expanding in such ferocity to take on  Heathrow Airport and cause absolute havoc - storms did try to form behind it and to the South West of the main storm, but they all seemed  to fizzle out --- at the same time on the Northern edge, extending all the way to near Manchester, small cells formed .. in what would eventually form a large group of storms on the frontal edge extending from the M4 to Birmingham and beyond. - Later this evening, although weakening, the odd flash over the Welsh borders, and a final punchy push of the storm West of Lvierpool
I've seen video of hail, funnels, frequent lightning and rain which can only be compared to the spray from waterfalls such as Victoria. satellite imagery shows a big ball of cloud stretching from The East English coast to Mid wales -  and from the M4 to North as far as Manchester. -- What an incredible storm cloud that fills up nearly the entirety of the Midlands.

[damianslaw]

27 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Thank you very much

Ah great we are grey, says it all! We are expected the heat so why nothing here?

[Turquoise]

Little bit of rain here now at last, enough to wet the ground at least. Cooled down nicely. A consolation to a disappointing day for us

[alexisj9]

42 minutes ago, Thunders said:

The grass outside has now got ugly patches of crunchy brown grass

I've actually got bald patches. 

[damianslaw]

34 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Alright well I don't necessarily agree with Jay's map, I think he mightve overdone the high maybe but I gave him the freedom to do the map all by himself today. Here's my discussion;

Convective Outlook  

Monday 08:00 - Tuesday 04:00

Significant bouyancy and CAPE should provide another day of strong thunderstorms. 2000 J/KG of CAPE with surface lift fairly strong should mean that breaks in cloud will allow for surface heating to be strong enough to break capping eventually.

However, saturation looks to be fairly strong weakening lightning potential and providing a layer of cloud somewhere. However, that layer should be broken through just not as strongly as elsewhere.

This is troubling the models at the moment and leading to lots of different solutions. Given the pure amount of CAPE, especially wih 150+ J/KG of 3CAPE. Therefore strong storms with frequent lightning and perhaps low-end severe hail (1 inch) is plausible somewhere, mostly likely within the moderate and high risks. Despite that saturation.

Moisture is high and with low LCL's, 30 to 40mm's of rainfall within an hour locally is possible in areas. Similar to the last few days. So a severe for surface flooding possible and a small chance of low-end severe hail.

Entrainment CAPE being low due to forcing and/or tall LCL's and short EL's is unlikely. Having taken a look at a sounding on the AROME in a fairly good area to get a general idea, 827(I'm assuming metres) LCL's and 12km EL's and possibly locally taller,is a good sign for a lot of CAPE to be taken up.

Forcing is strong enough for clusters or possible an MCS again so despite weak shearing, storms should remain fairly long-lived. If shearing were higher, I suspect we would've upgraded to a high risk further south and west as well even with the cloud cover issue but being fairly weak it means that air parcels have to remain in an open sector for convection for fairly long and also be very quick at connecting to be anything more than a pulse storm.

So given that, I suspect that a lot of cumulus congestus will go up early afternoon but keep recycling the convection centre hitting the cap and cloud until one of the convection centres bursts through it. Then we'll get a proper storm to form and then more and more keep forming as they all burst through the capping and possible cloud then we'll likely get a stronger build up of bouyancy and more vigorous convection than modelled as we've seen on Saturday and Sunday. That should happen widespread especially across the moderate and high risk areas.   London might be a bit too south to see the strongest storms and only seeing weaker ones if at all but there has been a slight southerly and easterly trend on most models recently. This cap breaking likely means that initiation won't be aroun 1-2pm like normal but more 3-4PM but quickly upscaling into clusters.

In these clusters or possible MCS's, some models are showing 80+ km/h wind gusts localised so some low-end severe wind gusts are plausible but still unlikely and in very localised spots.

Generally 1 inch hail and flash flooding is what's given the severe risks. This is a very similar day to Saturday and Sunday but a slight shift of area.

In areas of Scotland, especially the south and the northeast, some fairly strong storms are also possible away from the main area further south so there's an increase in risk there.

Similarly there's an increased risk in parts of Ireland and northern Ireland. So a slight risk has been added there and linked up with the Scottish risk.

Why the gap for Cumbria, explanation please.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Ah great we are grey, says it all! We are expected the heat so why nothing here?

Believe me I understand your frustration

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Why the gap for Cumbria, explanation please.

I don't know, I'm not Jay, I only do the discussions.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Well it was a complete bust for South Wales - this mornings rain that stretched to the south coast did really inhibit us, although or the Northern edge, some storms did develop and through Brecon and the hills toward Snowdonia - 

Of course, it was the small parcel of cloud in South London that dominated events today, expanding in such ferocity to take on  Heathrow Airport and cause absolute havoc - storms did try to form behind it and to the South West of the main storm, but they all seemed  to fizzle out --- at the same time on the Northern edge, extending all the way to near Manchester, small cells formed .. in what would eventually form a large group of storms on the frontal edge extending from the M4 to Birmingham and beyond. - Later this evening, although weakening, the odd flash over the Welsh borders, and a final punchy push of the storm West of Lvierpool
I've seen video of hail, funnels, frequent lightning and rain which can only be compared to the spray from waterfalls such as Victoria. satellite imagery shows a big ball of cloud stretching from The East English coast to Mid wales -  and from the M4 to North as far as Manchester. -- What an incredible storm cloud that fills up nearly the entirety of the Midlands.

It’s so mad that all came from one tiny spot

 

the V formations from that initial cloud explosion really were something, will look for that in future when I’m watching for initiation.

 

Would also like to add that being under a convergence zone is one of the most disorienting things ever

[damianslaw]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Believe me I understand your frustration

Its just adding insult this, today we were in a white nothing land everywhere just 2 miles west yesterday, today 5-10 miles east, now we have the heat forecast and still nothing.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Its just adding insult this, today we were in a white nothing land everywhere just 2 miles west yesterday, today 5-10 miles east, now we have the heat forecast and still nothing.

You might be in luck tomo? Nature loves to balance