Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[camturbo]

Great pics from some of you,sadly nothing down here  in these parts and other parts too. I was watching them on radar from a tiny blip to a dirty great mother ship. For those of us that missed out hopefully our time will come soon

[wallcloud75]

Yeah the southeast is to become the dessert of England again with no rain and none in the forecast 

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

some models still picking up on a weak signal for CS areas today

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say we are going to have the best storm I've ever seen in my life.

Yes there’s a small narrow area of around a 1,000jKg of cape running east to west along the Dorset/Hants coast at peak heating. If the CAP can be eroded there could be some lively lightning producer’s for a short period.

[Sparkiee storm]

The stormless hole I was in yesterday 

[weatherobsuk]

@Supacell interesting that Stone, Staffs got some flooding + storm damage as 14 miles to the NE near to Wootton there was barely any precip although the outflow was quite substantial at a consistent rate of 50mph for 10 minutes ahead of the line. Here's how things looked at more/less the same time from my vantagepoint up on the Weaver Hills.

About 1hr prior I was still considering Blithfield Reservoir for a intercept however when getting there I decided against standing on the B5013 causeway that goes across the water, much too exposed and busy with traffic.

 

[Southern Storm]

31 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes there’s a small narrow area of around a 1,000jKg of cape running east to west along the Dorset/Hants coast at peak heating. If the CAP can be eroded there could be some lively lightning producer’s for a short period.

Any idea what temperature is needed to break the cap?

It's 25 degrees here in Ferndown Dorset, very nice start to the day

[ChannelThunder]

27 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Any idea what temperature is needed to break the cap?

It's 25 degrees here in Ferndown Dorset, very nice start to the day

Dan hasn't mentioned the cap down here in his outlook, and says levels are likely too dry to produce any notable lightning. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by ResonantChannelThunder

[Southern Storm]

17 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Dan hasn't mentioned the cap down here in his outlook, and says levels are likely too dry to produce any notable lightning. 

That makes sense, it's totally clear, with no signs of instability.

I still have some hope though, I've seen "good" days deliver nothing, and vice versa.

[minus10]

Well gardening again today and it still feels very warm and humid...70% humidity outdoor on my device this morning...little bits of alto cum about but not hopefull..hard going in this heat although a little breeze which is very welcome...still want some rain..this weather does feel very med at present...

 

[Windblade]

3 hours ago, Azazel said:

some models still picking up on a weak signal for CS areas today

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say we are going to have the best storm I've ever seen in my life.

I admire your optimism! 

[Turquoise]

A pretty crazy day yesterday. Around 6pm we had a little cell that literally developed overhead. It brought non stop thunder, although quite muted and quiet considering it was over us. No lightning seen as it was still very bright due to hazy sun away from the storm cloud and it produced moderate showers on and off. That then moved off to the west.....

I was pleasantly surprised by this although I still had my eye on the monster that was encroaching from the east from Nottingham/Derby way. Not had a decent storm here since August 2020 so I was hoping it arrived, and my god did it arrive. Around 7.30-8pm it hit. The rain was TORRENTIAL and accompanied by 40-50 mph squally gusts. Visibility was down to literally a few metres such was the intensity of the rain. There was also constant thunder, again very difficult to make out any lightning apart from the faintest IC flashes here and there. I live on the first floor of an apartment complex and downstairs was completely flooded within 10 mins as per my video I posted yesterday. At the time it was around ankle height but by the time the storm finished the water was up to the shins. The storm lasted about 30 mins or so but as it moved off again towards the NW I was treated to some beautiful lightning on its back end, most IC but there was the odd CG strike too. A few really close ones too with shotgun thunder. The thunder was still rumbling on for another hour or so as it rolled off into the distance. 

The storm of August 2020 will be tough to beat for years to come but this was a good contender. A solid 8 out of 10. If it was after dark it would of scored higher haha. 

Storm drought well and truly over up here. 

[staplehurst]

1 hour ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Dan hasn't mentioned the cap down here in his outlook, and says levels are likely too dry to produce any notable lightning. 

The 05z Larkhill ascent was very unstable, with >2,000 J/kg SBCAPE given projected temperatures/dewpoints this afternoon. However, this is representative of the air across Cornwall by this afternoon (as it continues to migrate west) and profiles will become even drier aloft through the day as much drier air continues to advect from east to west (this is evident in the 09z sounding, with a much larger gap between the red and blue lines).

The 09z sounding suggests you'd need 27.5C to get past the surface-based CIN but 28.5C for convection to initiate in the absence of any notable forced ascent. It's quite breezy today, but still potential for a sea breeze to develop just inland from the south coast of both England and Wales, and this may just be sufficient to create some convective cloud and a few isolated heavy showers. Once you get past the surface-based CIN there's no substantial capping aloft so the only thing preventing big storms developing is just simply how dry the airmass is, so it will be interesting to see if anything does manage to punch high enough to produce a few lightning strikes or not.

 

[Andy Bown]

10 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

 

Thank you for the detailed update. Very interesting considering this kind of discrepancy exists only a few hours out!…

 

[Arnie Pie]

Late to the party, here`s a few screenshots from Sunday

My big camera gave me nothing but storage problems

yesterdays storms were missed cause of a hospital appointment

 

[Supacell]

2 hours ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

@Supacell interesting that Stone, Staffs got some flooding + storm damage as 14 miles to the NE near to Wootton there was barely any precip although the outflow was quite substantial at a consistent rate of 50mph for 10 minutes ahead of the line. 

As I was driving through it there were areas that were dry amongst areas that were flooded. Individual storms were quite localised amongst the large mass of storms. To me it seemed like the system wasn't an organised cell it was lots of smaller cells pulsing up (some briefly becoming severe) before collapsing and then new cells forming in the previous cells outflow. This made it a little harder to know where to position. If there had been some shear yesterday then I reckon there would have been at least a couple of organised severe storms/supercells.

The outflow was expanding out quite a distance from the storms. The same was true on Sunday, with strong winds fanning miles out from the storms.

[WeatherArc]

Sunday really starting to look interesting, still a way to go but could have potential to be a very good day for storms.

Profile taken close to Rugby, unlike Sunday/Yesterdays storms there is much more shear available as the trough moves through, Hodograph a little short but some very nice curvature on it, potentially favouring supercell storms.

Good Bulk Shear available to storms across the country as well. 850 winds also look interesting, i usually consider anything 30+ good for tornados.

However, temps look quite low when compared to last weekend, not sure if model bias is at play here but this would hinder instability. Also the Eff inflow is awful on the hodo, guessing its to do with the small instability/ lack of 3cape.

Suspect GFS is really overdoing cloud cover here, i never believe these total % charts  tbh.

Dewpoints a look alright, I consider anything 15+ good for storms.

Decent looking trough as well, liking the enhanced flow coming round the base.

GEFS seems to have a signal for something, just wish we could tap into some of those hotter temps over France.

Comparison between Euro, GFS  and GEFS.

Overall, there is defo the potential for Sunday to be another memorable day for storms across the country, will watch model trends over the next few days for potential instability increases.

 

 

 

[WeatherArc]

13 hours ago, JR319 said:

@WeatherArcIf this materialises, then we’re really being spoilt here in the Midlands

Yeah starting to feel like it  guess its making up for last year

[TwisterGirl81]

4 hours ago, wallcloud75 said:

Yeah the southeast is to become the dessert of England again with no rain and none in the forecast 

 

Didn't parts of the south east get thunderstorms and torrential rain there yesterday?  We've had 1.4mm here in Exeter in 31 days, the land is parched, same thing happened last year, though last year don't think we had decent rainfall in over a month and half....No rain forecasted until next monday hopefully (hopefully it's of the heavy variety)

Edited June 13, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[Guest]

Cu starting to bubble up over the New Forest. As sea breeze kicks convective activity could take off just inland from the Hants / Dorset coast.

[wallcloud75]

I live in Essex we had a few spots that I stantly evaporated storms were about 40 miles from me 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Sparkiee storm said:

The stormless hole I was in yesterday 

If you included Sat and Sun as well, you would see a grey strip here running north through Ambleside and Grasmere, barely a sprinkle, not one clap of thunder heard. Non event.

Edited June 13, 2023 by damianslaw

[Sparkiee storm]

18 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

If you included Sat and Sun as well, you would see a grey strip here running north through Ambleside and Grasmere, barely a sprinkle, not one clap of thunder heard. Non event.

Hit and miss has always been the way but when you miss out especially by a few miles multiple times then that's on another level of unluckiness. We had it here in 2017 when we only had a few rubles from a distant cell for the entire year while most of southern areas had some crazy storms that year.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Things are bubbling up here now. But doesn't look of the convective type

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Things are bubbling up here now. But doesn't look of the convective type

There’s a small chance for some small and short-lived storms. Looks quite plausible but probably not worth getting too excited about

[Metwatch]

A little bit of accas and some tiny cumulus forming (fair weather cloud mainly) but apart from that nothing, the conditions just aren't right today for much storms, if any around here.