Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Jamie M said:

Let's see how these do

Just running the sequence through and it looks like they are moving more NE instead of ENE,...mmm a lot more folk might be in with a chance this evening/tonight.

[R Alto]

Just now, Jamie M said:

Let's see how these do

The cell furthest North just put out a couple of blips on lightning maps. Could bode well for South East.

[tomp456]

Nothing to report here on the Sussex coast, other than

a) a few convective spits of rain

b) convective looking skies 

c) a storm shield 

d) no thunder at all in 2023

[Harry]

Just now, tomp456 said:

Nothing to report here on the Sussex coast, other than

a) a few convective spits of rain

b) convective looking skies 

c) a storm shield 

d) no thunder at all in 2023

I’ll take convective skies @tomp456

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Convective Outlook  

Saturday 21:00 - Sunday 21:00

Overnight pulses of elevated storms are likely to hit areas of the SE and a few may form towards the central south. Often, models under model the elevated storms and given the capping over northern France meaning that a lot of the available CAPE hasn't been used up by storms, this looks possible tonight. 

 

A large Theta-W advection with a PBL warm nose is typically a good scenario for strong elevated storms. Saturation at the cloud formation layer up to the EL at 10km looks to be favourable for active storms. However, the amount of CAPE varies significantly between models. MUCAPE could be in excess of 1,000 J/KG or could be as low as 300 J/KG. Either way, something should form perhaps in 2 rounds. Towards midnight and early morning but it depends on the strength of that CAPE.

 

Deep-layer shearing looks quite strong with weak low-level shearing but the amount of CAPE limits the hail potential to very weak. Though 1cm hail may be possible but unlikely.

 

A few elevated storms may persist from today's storms across Ireland. A few as well in England and Wales but very scattered. Generally the SE is the focus for tonight. They develop along a PV lobe with likely gold enough forcing for clusters to form, more akin to the AROME's evolution for the central south and the southeast than the UKV's limited far SE coast view. Though the areas may not be due to that alone and there's a lot of differences between the models still at this range. The WRF also struggles with that convection and its been very good recently but it does give a lot of energy for it. We've decided to keep the night risk to a slght for now.

 

Then as we go through the day, the general risk shifts north towards the midlands and also in Ireland. With locally 2,000 J/KG of SBCAPE and strong bouyancy, storms should form potentially exhibiting Supercellular characteristics for a time with large 3CAPE. Suggesting some 2cm hail possible with some severe hail. Along with some surface flooding possible, a severe risk has been added for parts of the UK and Ireland.

 

The southeast may also pickup on the action mainly to it's north with 1,000 J/KG of SBCAPE predicted there despite it generally being an unfavourable day for the south so some areas may get 1 storm overnight then in the day depending on how everything works out.

 

So strong thunderstorms are possible tonight for the central south and south east, especially the coasts which may be fairly scattered or become a small MCS depending on the forcing. This followed by a switch further north for the risk in the day with severe storms possible.

 

Then, there may be a risk for some areas overnight on Sunday but we have decided not to include that in our forecast.

I like that

[camturbo]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I like that

I hate it. Miss out again. 

[Allseasons-Si]

New developments Hereford/Gloucester way.

[Southern Storm]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just running the sequence through and it looks like they are moving more NE instead of ENE,...mmm a lot more folk might be in with a chance this evening/tonight.

I was just about to post the same thing, are the steering winds expected to switch to more ENE direction as the evening draws on? 

Nice little shower/cell out was also 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Southern Storm

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Southern Storm said:

I was just about to post the same thing, are the steering winds expected to switch to more ENE direction as the evening draws on?

I don't know as i am just a storm fanatic that chases and take footage but i am sure the more knowledgeable folk will answer your question

[Jamie M]

2 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

I was just about to post the same thing, are the steering winds expected to switch to more ENE direction as the evening draws on? 

Nice little shower/cell out was also 

700 hPa winds from AROME

[Guest]

Surprised you've not run the moderate into Yorkshire given the hi-res models, though some have that risk after 9pm which is your cut off time @Eagle Eye  

[Southern Storm]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I don't know as i am just a storm fanatic that chases and take footage but i am sure the more knowledgeable folk will answer your question

That makes two of us, still a lot to learn when it comes to storms 

[LeeKay/]

Its nice scanning and listening. Med wave on around 530 craks on radio.

[Cain]

Is it worth keeping my eyes open in south east wales or will it be to far north ?

[Ian Price]

Torrential rain showers here.

Took this 30 minutes ago...

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Surprised you've not run the moderate into Yorkshire given the hi-res models, though some have that risk after 9pm which is your cut off time @Eagle Eye  

It's on the borderline of being moderate or not but there's timing issues and how widespread it is may be affected by the current stuff going into the SE slightly.

[ancientsolar]

My view to the NorthWest, - towers still around,  - not convinced this is an active cell yet, but lookslike it will be closer to Brecon than the rest. 

Showers also showing their hand toward Swansea.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

It's on the borderline of being moderate or not but there's timing issues and how widespread it is may be affected by the current stuff going into the SE slightly.

I'd be surprised if stuff clipping the SE would have a huge effect right through later on tomorrow, no? 

[Marcus_surfer]

Heavy shower out of nowhere here in Swansea. So isolated though. Need widespread heavy showers

[Me & angel fiance]

Hiya all.. member for alot of years but don't post a great deal.. 

Anyway I was wondering what people reckon is the best and most accurate lightning tracker? I have been using blitzonburg, however it is spelt.. was going to download their actual app but its not got brilliant reviews.. 

Am I better sticking with them directly in their website? 

Keeping a close eye if that's the case as we are forecast for possible overnight storm and at the moment the current traffic looks like its aiming directly at us here (which is Margate)..

But I am a weather enthusiast only by name.. I get totally lost when it comes to reading charts and data.  

Good luck everyone that wants a storm.  Hope  you all get at least one

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

I'd be surprised if stuff clipping the SE would have a huge effect right through later on tomorrow, no? 

It's the cloud from it, may over saturate compared to forecasts, weakening storm strength but depends on how far west it tracks.

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, Me & angel fiance said:

Hiya all.. member for alot of years but don't post a great deal.. 

Anyway I was wondering what people reckon is the best and most accurate lightning tracker? I have been using blitzonburg, however it is spelt.. was going to download their actual app but its not got brilliant reviews.. 

Am I better sticking with them directly in their website? 

Keeping a close eye if that's the case as we are forecast for possible overnight storm and at the moment the current traffic looks like its aiming directly at us here (which is Margate)..

But I am a weather enthusiast only by name.. I get totally lost when it comes to reading charts and data.  

Good luck everyone that wants a storm.  Hope  you all get at least one

Yeah, Blitz is best, particularly their live map version: https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.82/50.972/-0.759

You don't need the app, that page works great on mobile browser.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

It's the cloud from it, may over saturate compared to forecasts, weakening storm strength but depends on how far west it tracks.

Hopefully it can bugger off east then. Sorry Kent (not that sorry, as you lot get some reet humdingers from the Channel)  

 

edit: last few visible satellite frames looked alright tbf.

 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Steel City Skies

[Eagle Eye]

My friend is in northern Spain tomorrow so could see some very nasty hail, I'm trying to convince her to get some videos of a storm if she does get one even if she does go on a small trip. Anyway, also looking quite good for us in terms of that potential.

[mike5900]

Showers now forming Lyme bay.