Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[cheese]

24C already here!

[Daniel_c150311]

A bit of a rare start to the morning..

[Ben Sainsbury]

28 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

So thoughts anyone, does the front seem to be going slower or faster than expected ?

Overnight, the models have toned back on the speed of the front a smidge, so a slightly more widespread risk imo vs yesterday model runs.

[The PIT]

Too far west for anything here but some showers may break and turn to storms as push eastward.

[Supacell]

I'll be heading out today. My current thinking is somewhere in East/North Yorkshire. Somewhere like York, Driffield or Pickering may be a good bet.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Too far west for anything here but some showers may break and turn to storms as push eastward.

We are too far west of the higher risk zone but we're definitely in play today. Could be some interesting cloudscapes looking just east for sure!

[Coops241180]

yeah - too far west of the main action today, but hoping to see stuff building as it drifts eastwards, 

gonna go set things off now by hanging washing on on the line

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook  

Sunday 08:00 - Sunday 23:00

(Wrote this yesterday evening with a bit added on this morning)

A high end event setup with possibly a line of storms or maybe a squall line setting up with some pre-frontal cells ahead of the strongly forced line. Theoretically pre-frontal cells could be taking advantage of stronger moisture and low-level Supercell 'juice' but despite the cold fronts strength, the strongest shearing parallel to it appears rather constricted with the tightly restricted front. That restricted front appears to weaken as it hits land but may send out enough forcing for another line to form ahead of it initially with isolated storms.

 

That secondary line looks to be tight to the cold front and so the forcing remains strong along a PV lobe sent it by the decaying front mid-afternoon. However, if it is further out then the event may be able to form a Supercell, it's a matter of miles. If a Supercell does form then low-end large hail is possible along with a tornado. Generally a brief-spin up and 2cm hail is more likely if its a line of storms that forms. If a line does form then just below severe wind gusts may occur.

 

Interestingly, having studied a precious event, if there are individual inflow cells into a squall then they may be able to form large hail themselves. I suspect the low-level bouyancy is artificially increased slightly south of a squall line so larger 3CAPE which can yield larger hail. In fact the Swiss 4X4 is currently modelling something similar south of the line with cells forming south of the line between Birmingham and Sheffield with slightly increased 3CAPE and the GFS suggesting locally increased lift. This may allow for active storms and hail producers south of the line but it depends how forced the line is.

 

Ahead of that second line that forms and a convergence line could form on the coast and right on the NE coast, strong storms could form drifting off into the North Sea given large CAPE and bouyancy which could very much be strong and active as they push into the north sea. With less forcing they become less messy and a possible Supercell could form making the most of that entrainment CAPE.

 

A local SRH max with these storms is being modelled with a strong inflow layer and mostly streamwise vorticity in places. This may allow for both low-end severe hail and a tornado to form. The specific temps and dewpoint at layers is looking possibly Supercellular as well. So an area to watch out for is ahead of the line towards the coasts.

 

Some models do show environments capable of hail slightly above 1.5 inches in areas but without a Supercell there that won't be realised. So it'll be very important for a Supercell to form if the severe potential is to be realised.

 

LCL's are rather high which may limit ECAPE and the tornadic risk but its not majorly high and is just another complication to the forecast. For now I've just decided to pretend it's a bit lower because it could well be.

 

Environmental modification more favourable could still take place given we've still got plenty of time till the event. Models could be underdoing the total CAPE or may be overplaying the shearing slightly and that's just one of the niches of forecasting that you've got to try and factor in.

 

So some severe hail, an isolated tornado and near severe wind gusts are possible. This along with frequent lightning and a weak Supercell maybe. Some surface flooding could also occur given the multiple rounds possible in some areas.

[IMP757]

Very hot already and not a cloud in the sky in Lincoln, doesn't look like surface heating is going to be an issue in the east! Fingers crossed everything comes together this afternoon to make use of the conditions. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by IMP757

[Coops241180]

dont't think surface heating is a problem anywhere today - pretty it never dropped below 20 here last night, definitely 22 when i woke at 6...

[StormLoser]

I can't believe 'Ol Durham Town' may be in for a pasting - while I am here, too! If I get any good photos, I'll post them.

As a kid back in the 1960s (living in Durham) I remember an almighty storm breaking out over the city one hot afternoon. I was at school and the teacher closed the shutters on the windows to force us to concentrate on her lesson (I've never forgiven her for that!)  The storm had built over the city during the morning and never really moved away. The amount of rainfall was astonishing.

Right now it's a mix of blue sky and high cloud.

Edited June 25, 2023 by StormLoser

[congerball]

Hot and sunny up North at the moment, keeping my fingers crossed for some fireworks for North Yorkshire today

[Cold Winter]

Right in the middle of all the various outlooks/warnings I’ve seen for today. Already a hot and sunny 26c  

[Gonzolio Martinez]

On the last big country-wide storm day last week, I missed everything by being a whisker too far east.

Today, it looks like I'm going to be just ever so slightly too far south.

It's so much more frustrating when it's oh so close

[Mysteric]

Must admit I'm not a big fan of storms but sounds like I may be right in the firing line along the NE sea coast 

[Harsh Climate]

It looks like the north york moors could be the hotspot for a severe storm today.

Are we thinking the moors high up (300m) or low lying flat areas just to the west or south like pickering/york is more favourable for severe weather??

I usually find with lightning frquences storms seem to become more electrical active as hey hit the moors, seen that a lot in the past with storms that have passed west yorkshire into the north yorkhire dales!

 

[Schnee]

I'd be inclined to go park up at Rosedale Chimney and use the elevation and views for awesome storm photography.

[ThomasD27]

AC CAS, I  think!

Edited June 25, 2023 by Thomas Dicken
Missed out a word

[Aiden2012]

I’m literally willing to drive anywhere today I’m so storm starved

[Weather-history]

 

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Aiden2012 said:

I’m literally willing to drive anywhere today I’m so storm starved

Atleast ya shouldnt  have too  far to drive mate, your in a very good location start of the day.

[Aiden2012]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Atleast ya shouldnt  have too  far to drive mate, your in a very good location start of the day.

Aye here’s hoping

[Guest]

Perhaps being too over-analytical here, but the cold front looks, if anything, to be a tad slower in reality compared with say, the UKV  

[StormLoser]

Durham now has grey skies - mostly high cloud. Ground forcing will not happen here unless this cloud breaks up.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Durham now has grey skies - mostly high cloud. Ground forcing will not happen here unless this cloud breaks up.

Doesn't necessarily need to as we're less reliant on clear blue skies to raise temps and trigger the storms today