Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[Turquoise]

5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

All the time lol. Like other day when French storms spewed up a load of cloud over the uk completly destroying our chances of forecasted storms. At least today there is  plenty of space and favorable conditions for storms to develop.

i dont see the point in running models a full week ahead for it to show a potential event and then it change 24-48 hours before.  People who planned storm chases or had things to do are left disappointed. Its always best to nowcast, radar watch and look at the sky maybe the day before and then we can get excited lol.

As for actually today, yes storm development could be anywhere, although the NE are going to do well particularly well. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Turquoise

[summer blizzard]

According to people earlier it was showers in advance of the front that were the threat however these are few and far between. So far it's just the front itself invigorating thanks to Welsh uplift (and likely Pennine uplift further east).

Hard to guage from models because UKV just showed a few speradic showers. 

[P-M]

For once I'm excited about the chase lol

Not saying I'll see anything but today has the best prospects for a while in these parts. 

As others have said,  sferics and a couple strikes showing around Merseyside now.  

[TJS1998Tom]

Gone very hot in Pickering now, feels as if someones blowing a warm hair dryer in your face

[Turquoise]

Just now, summer blizzard said:

According to people earlier it was showers in advance of the front that were the threat however these are few and far between. So far it's just the front itself invigorating thanks to Welsh uplift (and likely Pennine uplift further east).

Hard to guage from models because UKV just showed a few speradic showers. 

It could be the current squall lines over Wales that will explode into something big once they hit the NE

[Shaun L]

Couple of distant rumbles from Liverpool area,

 

[Jeffers146]

I feel like we are on edge here in Lincoln today. Not completely getting my hopes up however it seems anything that does develop nearby today could pack an attitude. Hot muggy and just sweltering. Let’s see how the afternoon goes. All the best everybody! 

[P-M]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

According to people earlier it was showers in advance of the front that were the threat however these are few and far between. So far it's just the front itself invigorating thanks to Welsh uplift (and likely Pennine uplift further east).

Hard to guage from models because UKV just showed a few speradic showers. 

Tony Gilbert on UK Weather World called it this morning. The cold front is what we're expecting to initiate now.  Time will tell how beastie or not it engages with the hot air mass.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Turquoise said:

i dont see the point in running models a full week ahead for it to show a potential event and then it change 24-48 hours before.  People who planned storm chases or had things to do are left disappointed. Its always best to nowcast, radar watch and look at the sky maybe the day before and then we can get excited lol.

As for actually today, yes storm development could be anywhere, although the NE are going to do well particularly well. 

Tbh this has always been a north event, it's still basically the same as the forecasts from earlier this week surprisingly. 

[Allseasons-Si]

More Pileus clouds forming,...love it.

 

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, Turquoise said:

It could be the current squall lines over Wales that will explode into something big once they hit the NE

Just now, P-M said:

Tony Gilbert on UK Weather World called it this morning. The cold front is what we're expecting to initiate now.  Time will tell how beastie or not it engages with the hot air mass.

Yeah. Having just watched the Met Office video forecast it does indeed look like it's what we are seeing now but worse further east. 

[Chris.R]

Lightning was around Crosby where my parents house is.

[Turquoise]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Tbh this has always been a north event, it's still basically the same as the forecasts from earlier this week surprisingly. 

True, although it was originally forecasted to be widespread across the north....now its mainly confined to the north east. Time will tell though.

[Cold Winter]

30c here and a strong, warm breeze. Current sky…

[Frosty hollows]

Am guessing the cold front has arrived in Ireland now looking at the radar

[Coops241180]

picked this up on another site..
if that convergence is accurate (and remaining in place for the afternoon..)  i think the NE is in for some serious action..

Page not found

WWW.METEOBLUE.COM

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meteoblue - weather close to you

[P-M]

Just now, Frosty hollows said:

Am guessing the cold front has arrived in Ireland now looking at the radar

I think the CF is on the west coast of England now?

[Norfolk Sheep]

Fair old amount of cloud starting to build to my W and NW, so I'd guess somewhere between here and Peterborough. Hard to tell without taking a drive.

[P-M]

1 minute ago, Coops241180 said:

picked this up on another site..
if that convergence is accurate (and remaining in place for the afternoon..)  i think the NE is in for some serious action..

Page not found

WWW.METEOBLUE.COM

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meteoblue - weather close to you

I'm not familiar with this map. The darker red where the CZ are?

[Chris.R]

Strikes in Flintshire now. That's better for me.

[sheikhy]

I swear that cold front is a lot slower pushing east than forecasted?!!!!

[Joey.GII]

Just drove home from Milton Keynes way, temps up to 31 according to car. At home now having lunch before heading out. About 28 here and well ahead of the CF but some of the bubbling cumulus is actually getting a bit big here, might have to see what it does rather than heading off up the motorway immediately!

 

Edit to add not very good pic:

Edited June 25, 2023 by Joey.GII

[Allseasons-Si]

Explosive developments off the Mid welsh border now too. 

[Chris.R]

Lightning frequency increasing on the radio from the Southwest now.

[Dangerous55019]

Afternoon everyone

Well I can confirm my third Sunday with thunder in a row!