Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano event, science and discussion and the links to 2023 weather anomalies.

[SnowBear]

As we have seen throughout 2023 many weather records are being broken, although mainstream media focuses on mainly high temperature records that are broken, as Kirkcaldy's threads have shown it's not just high temperature records, but also low temperature, rainfall quantities and rates, storms, and all sorts of other odd anomalies. 

Usually we think of volcanoes producing huge columns of ash, soot, sulphur etc and going on to creating a volcanic winter if large enough. When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano exploded on the 15th Jan 2022 it produced little of those normally present aerosols and instead due to the volcano being at just the right depth below the sea surface produced an unprecedented plume of predominantly water.

That water was injected high into the atmosphere into the stratosphere and even into the mesosphere. See below for where those are and the heights.

(Image courtesy of Windows to the Universe) 

It has been estimated to have injected 10-20% extra water high into those upper atmosphere layers. Being as water vapour is a greenhouse gas, it has actually possibly had the reverse effect than we would perhaps have seen from an aerosol releasing volcano. Instead of a volcanic winter, we get a volcanic summer. 

There has been little said about the volcano in the media really, it didn't effect a highly populated landmass, it didn't have immediate effects as you perhaps would from a huge aerosol cloud, we haven't seen tons of ash dropping onto crops, cities or neighbouring countries. 

So this thread is to explore and discuss that unprecedented volcanic eruption, which is now suspected to have surpassed Krakatoa in size, noise, pressure waves and height of volcanic plume and how it could be effecting our weather this year and continue to do so for the next few years. 

We will start on that water vapour. 

This is a paper published in Advanced Earth and Space Sciences last year. 

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Hydration of the Stratosphere

(Publication - Advanced Earth and Space Sciences Vol 49, Issue 13)

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL099381#

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by SnowBear
Spelling

[jonboy]

Thanks Snowbear

Water Vapour is a very powerful greenhouse gas and to see such a sudden increase in the atmosphere rather then the gradual change as is the case with CO2 I would image is little understood. Our present extremes be it hot weather cold records or flooding events are probably down to this volcanic event. Once the science catches up I wonder if the blame game will be adjusted for these extreme events personally I doubt it.

[SnowBear]

Tonga volcano had highest plume ever recorded, new study confirms |

WWW.OX.AC.UK

---

A new analysis led by Oxford University researchers has shown the devastating Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption in January 2022 created the tallest volcanic plume ever recorded...

 

 

Eruption of Tonga underwater volcano found to disrupt satellite signals halfway around the world -- ScienceDaily

WWW.SCIENCEDAILY.COM

---

Researchers found that the Hunga-Tonga eruption was associated with the formation of an equatorial plasma bubble in the ionosphere, a phenomenon associated with...

 

 

[SnowBear]

New study shows Tonga's Hunga eruption produced the most intense lightning ever recorded

PHYS.ORG

---

The January 15, 2022, eruption of Hunga Volcano in Tonga continues to break records. According to a new study, the eruption created a "supercharged" thunderstorm that produced the most...

 

 

[Methuselah]

But for how long did Tonga's water vapour remain in the atmosphere?

 

The residence time of water vapour in the atmosphere

WWW.NATURE.COM

---

The residence time of atmospheric water vapour has important implications for understanding hydrological processes. This Review discusses the general characteristics and changes in water vapour residence...

 

[SnowBear]

10 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

But for how long did Tonga's water vapour remain in the atmosphere?

 

The residence time of water vapour in the atmosphere

WWW.NATURE.COM

---

The residence time of atmospheric water vapour has important implications for understanding hydrological processes. This Review discusses the general characteristics and changes in water vapour residence...

 

That article is from 2021, the Tonga volcano event may mean we have to review some of what we thought we knew, especially the effects in the very high atmosphere. 

That paper is behind a pay wall, but what altitudes do they study? 

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

That article is from 2021, the Tonga volcano event may mean we have to review some of what we thought we knew, especially the effects in the very high atmosphere. 

That paper is behind a pay wall, but what altitudes do they study? 

Maybe yes, maybe no. I don't profess to know.

[weatherobsuk]

It's still hard to comprehend the sheer size of this eruption, especially when looking at this rarely seen video filmed 73km (45 miles) from it's epicenter. The eruption column was so collossal and rapid in growth that it simply blended in with the horizon.

 

[SnowBear]

5 minutes ago, toggerobz said:

It's still hard to comprehend the sheer size of this eruption, especially when looking at this rarely seen video filmed 73km (45 miles) from it's epicenter. The eruption column was so collossal and rapid in growth that it simply blended in with the horizon.

 

That's like being where I am in Colchester with the volcano being in the centre of London and the eruption column going straight up over 30 miles high. 

[cheeky_monkey]

so what would have been the result had this been a land based eruption?

[SnowBear]

12 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

so what would have been the result had this been a land based eruption?

A volcanic winter. 

(Edit) 

In my view we would have seen the effects from an aerosol ejecting eruption sooner than one that forces water up into the higher atmosphere. 

Dust and ash falling on crops and populated areas, mud slides, also the dust etc reflecting sunlight and overall a cooling effect for some years. 

Probably a year at least of no summer. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by SnowBear

[cheeky_monkey]

8 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

A volcanic winter. 

(Edit) 

In my view we would have seen the effects from an aerosol ejecting eruption sooner than one that forces water up into the higher atmosphere. 

Dust and ash falling on crops and populated areas, mud slides, also the dust etc reflecting sunlight and overall a cooling effect for some years. 

Probably a year at least of no summer. 

so what would be the equivalent historical eruption?

[sundog]

23 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

so what would be the equivalent historical eruption?

Mount Tambora eruption in Indonesia,  April 1815? Lead to the 'Yr without a summer' in. 1816.

[SnowBear]

31 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

so what would be the equivalent historical eruption?

Not sure they can be compared in that way, it almost like they need two different scales. One is ejecting rock and ash, the other is water vapour produced from a steam explosion. One is ejecting matter which will cool the atmosphere due to dust and ash the other is pushing water vapour very high into the atmosphere. 

We know the effects of a land based volcano but very little on how an eruption such as Tonga will effect the chemistry at such high levels such as the mesosphere. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by SnowBear

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, SnowBear said:

Not sure they can be compared in that way, it almost like they need two different scales. One is ejecting rock and ash, the other is water vapour produced from a steam explosion. One is ejecting matter which will cool the atmosphere due to dust and ash the other is pushing water vapour very high into the atmosphere. 

We know the effects of a land based volcano but very little on how an eruption such as Tonga will effect the chemistry at such high levels such as the mesosphere. 

i meant the size of the eruption..isnt there a scale for that ? 

[SnowBear]

2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i meant the size of the eruption..isnt there a scale for that ? 

There is, but it's based on volume of tephra ejected. Tonga produced relatively low amounts, VEI 6 just. But the VEI doesn't take into account water vapour or how it effects the atmosphere. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by SnowBear

[Penguin16]

Another thing for the denialists to cling on to and knock one out to.

[SnowBear]

5 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

Another thing for the denialists to cling on to and knock one out to.

If anything it shows for possibly a short period of time how the climate will change if warming continues based on CO², it's almost like a nature based lab experiment with the water vapour being a short term boost rather than long term like CO².

Edited August 2, 2023 by SnowBear

[Scuba steve]

Some variations on explosive power with various scientific sources putting the explosion between 15 and 100 megatons,certainly a very impressive blast 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

5 hours ago, Methuselah said:

But for how long did Tonga's water vapour remain in the atmosphere?

 

Its there in significant, downright concerning amounts within various layers of the stratosphere (particularly 10hpa which is very interesting indeed) I'm certain this is the #1 contributor paired with quite abnormal and persistent summertime stratospheric-tropospheric coupling 

On 25/07/2023 at 17:56, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

As you know I always enjoy your input MIA, thanks.

I've planned to get my thoughts connecting to the increasing number of record weather conditions and abnormal events ie snow in areas that wouldn't normally see in whichever month it is occurring and often at the intensity which I've been reporting like the Ladakh region in the recent weeks. It is some of the most complex developments in the climate related area no question so I'll try to portray my thinking as easily and clear as I can though it certainly is a tricky task

I'd like to begin on the rainfall situations 

Since April the number of incredible flash flood rainfall scenarios has been ridiculous we're talking events that reached the percentage of occurance per 1000 years on MULTIPLE occasions which began in Fort Lauderdale 

 

This has really cranked up in frequency over the past month roughly 

There has been 3>>4 events in just the past 2 weeks (solely US based)

To get an ALL TIME State record is no easy feat 

An interesting focal point of continuous rain and severe activity has been Colorado 

We see how anomalously active in terms of severe weather which covers a high percentage of the US 

Other countries which are experiencing abnormal rain in such quick periods are especially Japan + China 

The most recent extraordinary event occurred over Nova Scotia potentially another all time record for the entire province, madness 

Where does my thinking go as to the main factors why these rain related records have been particularly prominent in 2023?

It simply cannot be coincidence having the volume of water vapour dominant within the stratosphere originating from Hunga Tonga

Those values are mega especially at 10hpa

Having covered in various posts of mine over in the model thread my intuition was leading me to developments from the stratosphere connecting to such a retrogressive nature to the atmosphere from around April which Judah Cohen and a few other sources have confirmed 

The way I'm thinking in easiest translation terminology is the saying what goes up must come down. 

Thanks for starting this thread @SnowBear   

 

[SnowBear]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Its there in significant, downright concerning amounts within various layers of the stratosphere (particularly 10hpa which is very interesting indeed) I'm certain this is the #1 contributor paired with quite abnormal and persistent summertime stratospheric-tropospheric coupling 

Thanks for starting this thread @SnowBear   

 

I have myself thinking at this midnight hour....

We hear/have heard, so much about just one aspect of our climate, that's temperature. The media seem to only focus on that one thing. 

We hardly ever hear about the other aspects of the climate which can change too. 

We have heard stories and tales from the distant past, some are now just myths and legends, but are copied from around the world and different countries, and there is one particular story that arises quite often. The memories of floods, with the account in the bible, and from various other civilisations which have similar stories, where it rains for days and severe floods occur. 

My train of thought is, can these long ago stories be matched to the possible dates where a Pacific volcano has erupted. We see the remnants of shattered islands and atolls which have been created at some time in the past, obviously we have no record of them erupting, but if the injection of water vapour into the high atmosphere has a profound effect in ways we don't fully understand right now, were those stories of old actually accounts of similar or worse than what we are experiencing this year and are the result of steam explosion volcanoes. 

I haven't read about the ancients for some years, if I get time perhaps I need to, and also see if there is a database of estimated Pacific island/atoll eruptions, at least those which didn't disappear altogether, are there any links between them. 

List of flood myths - Wikipedia

EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by SnowBear

[SnowBear]

Nosing about this morning I came across this...it links in with my post above.

Its a fair read but shows we must not just dismiss old myths and legends out of hand. 

O cei na Vulavula? Insights and Regrets of a Foreign Geoscientist in the Pacific Islands

WWW.MDPI.COM

---

From over three decades of close contact with Pacific Islands geoscience, the author reflects on key issues (what he wished he had known earlier) about the nature of islands, their landscapes and...

 

[LetItSnow!]

I do wonder if it had been a land based volcano whether it could have reduced the effects of warming so much and we would be seeing colder conditions this year, but of course it had to have the opposite effect.

Reading the thread of global weather events, one thing strikes me as most notable at the moment and it’s the rate at which rainfall records seem to be falling left and right. Flooding here and there, wet months in many places (including the UK). I wonder if the atmosphere is strongly being affected with excess moisture which is powering these storms and lows. 

[SnowBear]

18 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

I do wonder if it had been a land based volcano whether it could have reduced the effects of warming so much and we would be seeing colder conditions this year, but of course it had to have the opposite effect.

Reading the thread of global weather events, one thing strikes me as most notable at the moment and it’s the rate at which rainfall records seem to be falling left and right. Flooding here and there, wet months in many places (including the UK). I wonder if the atmosphere is strongly being affected with excess moisture which is powering these storms and lows. 

To be honest, if it was land based it wouldn't have been a volcano of note really, the volcanic material, ie ash, soot and even aerosols we normally see with volcanoes wasn't that high. Not on the scale Pinatubo for sure. The Tonga volcano was relatively short in its activity, no months and months of high output eruption.

We had some activity which went on for a little while and the steam explosion when the sea water entered the chamber blew the island apart and any activity then snuffed out like a candle. 

In my mind we may have seen a slight cooling if land based but nothing as significant as the effects we are seeing in the reverse from that water vapour. 

It's quite possible that less water vapour is needed to have effects on the weather being as water vapour is a very strong greenhouse gas in its own right plus steam explosion volcanoes tend to reach higher in the atmosphere due to the power of the explosions. To cool, any land based volcano would comparatively require much more ejecta in the form of ash etc to achieve the same level of results the other way, with relatively lower ejecta columns, plus ejecta perhaps falling to earth quicker onto the surrounding landscape. 

I think the two, land based, and sea based, have to be seen as two completely different animals. 

 

Edited August 3, 2023 by SnowBear
Spelling

[SnowBear]

To try and illustrate the differences here is a VEI chart courtesy of coolgeography.co.uk

If we look at the chart and find where the estimated VEI is (around 5.7 I think), a strong 5, not quite 6 we see that for ejecta we are above Mount St Helens, but not as much as Pinatubo. Remember that each VEI increases tenfold. So the cooling effect is not that significant, we need a Tamboro event of VEI 7+ to be effective. 

But for height of plume for the Tonga volcano we have to look to VEI 8 to see the 50km level. It achieves this with an ejecta rating of sub VEI 6 but the effects could be equivalent to up to VEI 8 warming wise due to the height it reaches and the type of material reaching that height, ie Water. 

What I do note is that Krakatoa is around the same mark, but after seeing what the Tonga volcano has achieved I think the plume height may possibly need to be revised being as it was a steam explosion and will have had a plume I believe able to gain much higher altitudes. 

There needs to be a new and separate ratings chart for sea based volcanoes.