Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[johncam]

 Midlands Ice Age a suprise indeed MIA , volume not looking great though 

[Midlands Ice Age]

This is getting stupid now with another century increase on Masie extent to a new high for the year of 15,178K Km2.

This is no less than 14 days since the ASIF called a maximum for the year. It is now called a faux max apparently.

 

We are def seeing something odd at the end of the freeze season. Today's events showed large gains in Bering and Barents Oceans.

The updated 15M table follows -

MIA

 

Edited March 12 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 28/02/2024 at 17:59, Midlands Ice Age said:

Year    First date past 15M          Maximum           Number of days over 15M

2024          042                                15178K                      10 (so far, updated 12/3)

2023          064                                 15005                         1

2022          059                                 15065                         4

2021         

2020           061                                 15129                         6 

2019

2018 

2017

2016            057                                15077                            5

2015   

2014             051                               15298                            35

2013             041                               15550                            56

2012             047                                15296                           55

2011             066                                15081                             6

2010              049                               15298                            42

2009              048                               15326                            10

2008              057                               15651                             68 

 

Edited March 12 by Midlands Ice Age

[johncam]

 Midlands Ice Age Higher again today MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 12/03/2024 at 17:51, Midlands Ice Age said:

On 28/02/2024 at 17:59, Midlands Ice Age said:

Year    First date past 15M          Maximum           Number of days over 15M

2024          042                                15178K                      12 (so far, updated 14/3)

2023          064                                 15005                         1

2022          059                                 15065                         4

2021         

2020           061                                 15129                         6 

2019

2018 

2017

2016            057                                15077                            5

2015   

2014             051                               15298                            35

2013             041                               15550                            56

2012             047                                15296                           55

2011             066                                15081                             6

2010              049                               15298                            42

2009              048                               15326                            10

2008              057                               15651                             68 

 

 

[WYorksWeather]

OK, so looks like the best refreeze season by that metric since 2014. Probably doubtful it will catch it, as these days ice tends to do a nosedive in April.

[Don]

 WYorksWeather at least we haven't had an Ice free summer Arctic yet!

[Northwest NI]

 Don I hope none of us ever see that.

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 12/03/2024 at 17:51, Midlands Ice Age said:

On 28/02/2024 at 17:59, Midlands Ice Age said:

Year    First date past 15M          Maximum           Number of days over 15M

2024          042                                15178K                      16 (so far, updated 17/3)

2023          064                                 15005                         1

2022          059                                 15065                         4

2021         

2020           061                                 15129                         6 

2019

2018 

2017

2016            057                                15077                            5

2015   

2014             051                               15298                            35

2013             041                               15550                            56

2012             047                                15296                           55

2011             066                                15081                             6

2010              049                               15298                            42

2009              048                               15326                            10

2008              057                               15651                             68 

 

Table above updated to yesterday with the 9th continuous day now over 15.0M.

Today's  value was 15,108K KM2 despite a 56K KM2 drop in the SOO, since more  generally many small increases were recorded in other sea areas.

    

The increase in extent now rivals those of the early teens and exceed those of 2011 and 2009 in the early periods.

I have details below of this in a form of a packed chart of Arctic ice  extent as shown from  the NSIDC, which is being updated by the ASIF - 

 

It needs  to be expanded to see the detail, and it is recorded for Mar 11th but but clearly indicates the current status.

Arctic ice area is still also showing increases - now also later then the normal freeze end date

   

Whilst temperatures above 80 degrees and 66.5 degrees north have now fallen to average for the first time really this year.

     

MIA

    

 

Edited March 17 by Midlands Ice Age

[Stravaiger]

Amazing to see the sea ice surround the Svalbard archipelago for the first time in a long while.

Beautiful images coming off the webcams around Longyearbyen, showing how influential all the snow and ice is on the albedo of the High Latitudes at this time of year: 

BOREALIS LIVECAM PORT OF LONGYEAR 360 (kystnor.no)

When you consider how jaffa cakes poor the UK's "winter" has been, it's encouraging to know that Scandinavia and the most northerly extremes of Europe have still managed to get some goodly cold in.

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 17/03/2024 at 18:52, Midlands Ice Age said:

Year    First date past 15M          Maximum           Number of days over 15M

2024          042                                15178K                      17 (so far, updated 19/3)

2023          064                                 15005                         1

2022          059                                 15065                         4

2021         

2020           061                                 15129                         6 

2019

2018 

2017

2016            057                                15077                            5

2015   

2014             051                               15298                            35

2013             041                               15550                            56

2012             047                                15296                           55

2011             066                                15081                             6

2010              049                               15298                            42

2009              048                               15326                            10

2008              057                               15651                             68 

After falls in Masie sea ice extent of 51K,  and today 101K Km2,  leaving the ice extent at 14,952K Km2 , it looks as if the days of exceeding 15Mm2 have now ended at 17.

  

It is still the highest for 10 years and the actual ice increase from minimum last sept to the max was amongst the highest.

Attached are some graphs for both extent and area from the ASIF to complete this years growth season.

            

I believe that we are now into the northern hemisphere melt season , so I will  hopefully be back in September for the  2024/2025 winter growth season.

Growth has sure kept us on our toes this year.

... and for Stravaiger.. yes it sure has been a good year and the ice around Svalbard (also now reaching Bear Isle again) has resulted in the Central Arctic  basin(CAB) ice extent becoming totally full in the last couple of weeks. 

MIA  

 

Edited March 20 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

 Midlands Ice Age thanks for all the info and your work the last 6 months

 

fingers crossed the sea ice reaches Shetland next winter and we get some snow and biting winds to our shores

[Bradley in Kent]

Hello @Midlands Ice Age,

Yes I also wish to say thank you for your incredibly insightful work and leading on this thread. It is one of my (if not my most) favourite threads on NW due to the objective nature of your posts minus the assumption that everyone here wants more snow and ice! To me the appearance of this thread signals the start of Autumn especially once I've had enough of Summer.

We have now likely peaked for this year but I'll keep my eye on Polar Portal and NSIDC over the Spring and Summer hoping it holds out and doesn't go below 2012 levels. It's a shame we didn't benefit from the Scandinavian cold this season but weather will do what it does. Maybe next year we'll have pancakes forming off the North Sea coast by pancake day 2025!

All the best and once again thank you for the hark work and research. Hope you have a enjoyable and healthy few months ahead.

Best wishes,

Brad

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Although I formerly closed my output to this thread 8 days ago,  I thought it worthwhile coming back for a further update as the sea ice continues to 'misbehave' itself and will not fall in extent the way it should!!!

I will start off by showing the Masie extent graph -

   

As you can see, it is refusing to go down this year. In fact the last 3 days (after an increase of +108K Km2) have hovered just below my arbitrary 15M Km2 line (latest at 14,986K Km2).

The last 3 days have in fact been rounded up to 15M |KM2, but I do not count those!!

The recent events have now put a gap of 800.000 KM2 between it and its challenger (2022-23) for much of the season, and is way above average for the time of year.

As a result of a recently released  paper and post (video on the paper) on the changing and reducing AMOC effect and its predictions for its effects on Arctic ice and Northern Hemisphere weather in general (link below, and see the forum on Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures if the link does not work') - 

Quote

https://youtu.be/nxxaqjzuRPQ

 

I thought I would show a few graphs of the regions it highlights as being prone to increases in view of a reduced inflow from the Atlantic (the AMOC effect)  into the Arctic region -

1) Barents 

 

2) Greenland 

  Baltic     

3) Bering -

  

4) SOO -

As can be seen all have spent sometime above the 10 year highs within the last 4 weeks as the melt season started, and all are currently running very high.

In fact the Barents is quite remarkable that it has grown by around 200K KM2 in the last 2weeks and it is this that has kept the record high extents ongoing. Even the Bering is still increasing, albeit from a lower base.

I have included this chart from the ASIF to make a final point.  One of the few years that has shown a similar effect was 2012 where the increases carried on for a further week, before starting to fall.

Now the downside of all this is that 2012 went on to become the lowest year  so far recorded, That however was caused by the very unusual weather and atmospheric situation which followed in July and August (the GAC - Great Arctic Cyclone) which destroyed a lot of the outlaying ice.

So what will happen? Is this new paper relevant to the Arctic sea ice?

I have assumed that, so far,  most of the unscripted changes were due to the ENSO/PDO and perhaps the Hunga Tunga volcano, but perhaps we must also add in the changing AMOC. 

Do we in fact have a  new driver in the race to record the first Blue Ocean Event (BOE) -a method of describing an ice free Arctic. Or perhaps this positive 'twist' might delay the event even further out in time.

The other interesting thing about this is that potentially the weather we are seeing 'at home' is also being affected by the changes in the Arctic.

Next episode?....

MIA

Edited March 28 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Still we see a refusal of the Arctic to obey the script.

   Still 10 -15% more than average for this point.

and this is despite the SOO going for a large melt out.

The Barents just continues to freeze -

    

and the Bering/ Greenland seems to want to follow suit -

       

By  now all 3 of these seas are normally in full melt mode. 

This is still early season, but was  not expected by many people.

MIA

Edited April 6 by Midlands Ice Age

[Don]

On 16/03/2024 at 14:02, Northwest NI said:

I hope none of us ever see that.

I hope not either, but I think the chances are we will at some point?!

[phil nw.]

Certainly Svalbard has seen very cold temperatures for them since March, around the-20c on many days .

Weather in mars 2024 in Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway

WWW.TIMEANDDATE.COM

---

Weather reports from mars 2024 in Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway with highs and lows

This would postpone any melt around the Barent sea I should think.