Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[Kaisla]

I checked weather forecasts for different locations around the Baltic Sea. First is Gdansk in Poland. Temperatures should drop 0 or slightly negative next week, maybe Wed/Thu onward. SST off the coast Gdansk is 5 degrees C at the moment, so no new ice expected.

Next is St Petersburg where winter weather ATM is nice, -3 degrees C, but next Tuesday forecast shows something else, -20 - -25 C. After the forecasted cold shock, temps will climb up to ca. -10 - -13 degrees C. Wind should be weak or even calm. Very good condition for ice formation, because SST is slightly above zero.

A forecast for Turku in SW-coast of Finland is not as cold as that for St Petersburg. Another difference is the wind, that should be 4 - 6 m/s at least on coming weekeend. Temperature is expected to drop below -10 on Sunday and staying under that line almost a week. It remains to be seen if growing ice cover reaches Åland Islands.

The last location is Tornio, border town at the Finnish-Swedish border at the northernmost point of the Baltic. Bothnian bay is ready to be freeze completely. Temperature in Tornio drops below -10 at Sunday and stays there at least  a week. The coldest period is from 1st to 4th of January, when temperature should be below -20 degrees C. The wind is expected to be weak.

The narrowest point (Merenkurkku in Fin, Kvarken in Swe) between Finland and Sweden in Gulf of Bothnia should also be completely covered by ice by the end of next week. I don't think the Bothnian Sea to gain much ice though. It is still too warm, but if cold weather stays there, maybe by the end of January, the area is fully frozen.

Gulf of Bothnia is part of the Baltic that is between Finland and Sweden. It consists of two parts: from south to north,  Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay. Between them is Merenkurkku/Kvarken.

Baltic icechart

 

[nobble]

2 hours ago, Kaisla said:

I checked weather forecasts for different locations around the Baltic Sea. First is Gdansk in Poland. Temperatures should drop 0 or slightly negative next week, maybe Wed/Thu onward. SST off the coast Gdansk is 5 degrees C at the moment, so no new ice expected.

Next is St Petersburg where winter weather ATM is nice, -3 degrees C, but next Tuesday forecast shows something else, -20 - -25 C. After the forecasted cold shock, temps will climb up to ca. -10 - -13 degrees C. Wind should be weak or even calm. Very good condition for ice formation, because SST is slightly above zero.

A forecast for Turku in SW-coast of Finland is not as cold as that for St Petersburg. Another difference is the wind, that should be 4 - 6 m/s at least on coming weekeend. Temperature is expected to drop below -10 on Sunday and staying under that line almost a week. It remains to be seen if growing ice cover reaches Åland Islands.

The last location is Tornio, border town at the Finnish-Swedish border at the northernmost point of the Baltic. Bothnian bay is ready to be freeze completely. Temperature in Tornio drops below -10 at Sunday and stays there at least  a week. The coldest period is from 1st to 4th of January, when temperature should be below -20 degrees C. The wind is expected to be weak.

The narrowest point (Merenkurkku in Fin, Kvarken in Swe) between Finland and Sweden in Gulf of Bothnia should also be completely covered by ice by the end of next week. I don't think the Bothnian Sea to gain much ice though. It is still too warm, but if cold weather stays there, maybe by the end of January, the area is fully frozen.

Gulf of Bothnia is part of the Baltic that is between Finland and Sweden. It consists of two parts: from south to north,  Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay. Between them is Merenkurkku/Kvarken.

Baltic icechart

 

Quick question please if I may ,

 

It has been very cold for a good 4/5 weeks now how does this compare to say 60,s 70,s and 80,s regarding Baltic Sea ice extent ? 
 

what was / is the earliest the Baltic freezes over ? 
 

thanks

[Kaisla]

2 hours ago, nobble said:

 

 

It has been very cold for a good 4/5 weeks now how does this compare to say 60,s 70,s and 80,s regarding Baltic Sea ice extent ? 
what was / is the earliest the Baltic freezes over ? 

Good questions! Unfortunately I don't have answers right now, but I've seen interesting statistics somewhere in the net. Let's see if I can find anything.
 

 

 

[Kaisla]

I guess I have to practice quoting. I found a pdf (Finnish) 'Merentutkimuslaitoksen jääpalvelu 1919-1994'. 100 pages of history of Baltic ice studies. The earliest start to ice season in Helsinki was in the first week of November. That happened in 1850's. My wild guess for ice season to begin in the northernmost point is a month earlier.

I also found interesting image. 'Icecover area in the Baltic'. On the right hand side word 'Leuto' translates to 'mild', 'Ankara' to 'severe'. The mean value is between these two.

 

[nobble]

7 hours ago, Kaisla said:

I guess I have to practice quoting. I found a pdf (Finnish) 'Merentutkimuslaitoksen jääpalvelu 1919-1994'. 100 pages of history of Baltic ice studies. The earliest start to ice season in Helsinki was in the first week of November. That happened in 1850's. My wild guess for ice season to begin in the northernmost point is a month earlier.

I also found interesting image. 'Icecover area in the Baltic'. On the right hand side word 'Leuto' translates to 'mild', 'Ankara' to 'severe'. The mean value is between these two.

 

Thankyou

 

it just shows how good the 1970,s & 1980,s were for Baltic ice volume , the best period for nearly 200 years indicated by that chart

probably explains why winters in the uk had a “bite “ back then

[cheese]

1 hour ago, nobble said:

Thankyou

 

it just shows how good the 1970,s & 1980,s were for Baltic ice volume , the best period for nearly 200 years indicated by that chart

probably explains why winters in the uk had a “bite “ back then

Yeah, it’s why the 1961-1990 climatic period was unusually cold if anything. The winter of 1986-87 was particularly brutal in the Nordic countries - Helsinki had a maximum temperature of -32C on the 9th of January. Nowadays it would be more or less impossible to get conditions that cold. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by cheese

[nobble]

22 hours ago, cheese said:

Yeah, it’s why the 1961-1990 climatic period was unusually cold if anything. The winter of 1986-87 was particularly brutal in the Nordic countries - Helsinki had a maximum temperature of -32C on the 9th of January. Nowadays it would be more or less impossible to get conditions that cold. 

could be getting close late next week

[hwyl]

15 hours ago, nobble said:

could be getting close late next week

 

I will travel up to Nurmo to my Mother's place for next week - the forecast  is -33 for Thu and -31 for Tue. Can't wait to have sauna and cool down in that freezing air! My record is -38 in the 80's - my Dad thought it best for our Samoyed dog to sleep indoors but he wouldn't have it, just dug a hole in the snow and slept very happily  

Edited December 31, 2023 by hwyl

[johncam]

Everything ok with MIA , haven't heard from him for a while 

[Midlands Ice Age]

16 hours ago, johncam said:

Everything ok with MIA , haven't heard from him for a while 

Been very busy this last week, but I thought that it was good to here from the people in Finland on the Baltic.

A lot  more time today so I will do an 'update of the week' now and then do an annual (2023) later post so as to see where we are now.   (GOOD is the answer!!).

Anyway this last week has seen a retraction worldwide of the snow cover.

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

CLIMATE.RUTGERS.EDU

---

Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

It is interesting that they have Dec 2024 down as the date for yesterday's graph.  Maybe as a result there is no anomaly graph available yet. I think that this is why its currently blank!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Apart from China and the east (inc Alaska) all areas are now below average -

  

Much of the lower than average figures are being shown in the central area of North America, though Europe has also pulled back (temporarily I think). 

Now onto the Sea Ice situation -----

It has remained generally strong over the last week, with Maise moving having moved to the top last week for Xmas has maintained its position.

This has been achieved by  average increases on 3 days and large increases (Including one of 198K KM2 yesterday) in the interim days.

The gains recently have been early and large, mainly in the east with Bering, SOO, Yellow Sea and Cook Inlet all showing very large gains.

   .    

        

Whilst other regions ( except Hudson)  having remained at about the same levels

  (for our Northern contributors - though expect to see large gains this week)

           

 

However the laggard of the pack has been the Hudson Bay which is only just reaching its peak at 2 - 3 weeks later than the recent averages -  

.    All the above from Masie  (with thanks)

 

Looking at the wider situation I will turn to the ASIF (thanks due for the graphs) 

              for

 

extent (13th lowest (13th now) after a peak of 18th earlier in the week. .... And for 'Area' -

           

The latest in 9th place.

So it leaves 2023 in a good position with levels of increase since the rapid final melt in August, with gains of between 7 - 10% more than the average for the last 10 years and even some of the years  in the noughties.

So the last 3 weeks (as the ice has spread outside the basin),  have seen very large increases overall, although the increase weakening just slightly in the last 3 days.

That is all for now, with high hopes for a record ice season coming up for the Baltics, and so all for now (a lot of charts, I know)  ,  I will look at 2023 in historical general perspective in my next post.

 MIA

  

 

Edited January 1 by Midlands Ice Age
Update to Rutgers

[Midlands Ice Age]

As discussed above I will do an end of 2023 post for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres sea ice now.  ( Worldwide is also interesting)

The post below is mainly taken from the ASIF (with thanks for the charts).

2023  started off more slowly than the end of 2022, with an end of refreeze update for 22/23 about in an average 6 - 9th position overall, but with the trends (see below for graphs)  on an increased slope.

 We then went through a rapid melt  in August at the end of the 2023 melting season. 

Sept and Oct were quite good for sea ice and by the end  of Nov were in an average position with the refreeze having taken over the basin slightly earlier than the average of the last few years. 

Since then the refreeze in the Pacific (outgoing sea areas) has been very strong and rapid.

Looking back at the sea ice extent average amount of sea ice or the NH we see -

 which has shown the higher amounts in the last 3 years and after the drop in the summer, it also shows well the uplift of the last 3weeks. The linear trend  lines of the last 10 years and the last 50 years are attempted to be shown -

So all looks very good really  - without suggesting any reasons for it.

It does seem to suggest that a breakout may well be happening but it requires another years data to confirm.

 

 

Meanwhile for the SH (Antarctica) things have been very different -

A rapid fall in the SH sea ice started in the Autumn of 2022 an this continued until about 3 - 4 months ago, when a recovery became apparent -

 ( I have already suggested it must be connected with  the Hunga Tonga Volcano).

and this is shown more clearly in the charts below for the accumulated amount of sea ice area shown at the end here -

       

So pretty large impacts of 'something' are being shown in the southern hemisphere.

 

What does this all mean for the worldwide Sea ice position?  Remember that this - according to some people  - is key to our continued life expectations on earth.

 

         

So what does the recent increases mean with the longer term trends in total sea ice area?

          

Again we need to see what happens this year to make any longer term statements, but the recovery in worldwide sea ice extent does appear to be quite strong at the moment.

A rapid 'bounce back' in the Antarctic area sea total annual sea ice area will be forthcoming soon as we are now at higher levels than last year right now. 

All for now, keep healthy and cheerful, and now for me back to the MAD thread. !!!

MIA

Edited January 1 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

and finally a snow and sea ice  comparison of end of 2022 with end of 2023 (for comparison) -

   <   2023          and 2022    >  

 

MIA

 

[hwyl]

Häme Castle from the train window, ca -23 - perfect clear Nordic hp!

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

8 hours ago, hwyl said:

Häme Castle from the train window, ca -23 - perfect clear Nordic hp!

 

Hwyl...

Where is this taken? Is it by Stockholm on the Baltic?

Cheers MIA

 

[Pauski]

13 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Hwyl...

Where is this taken? Is it by Stockholm on the Baltic?

Cheers MIA

 

I am new here and  not posted before(only reading many years). I live in Finland,  Häme Castle(Hämeenlinna in finnish) is located in Finland in the city of the same name.

Häme Castle

WWW.KANSALLISMUSEO.FI

---

Experience the Middle Ages as well as the grandeur and decline of this 700-year-old castle by yourself or on a guided tour.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

9 hours ago, Pauski said:

I am new here and  not posted before(only reading many years). I live in Finland,  Häme Castle(Hämeenlinna in finnish) is located in Finland in the city of the same name.

Häme Castle

WWW.KANSALLISMUSEO.FI

---

Experience the Middle Ages as well as the grandeur and decline of this 700-year-old castle by yourself or on a guided tour.

 

Welcome Pauski..

 It would be nice if  you could keep us informed of the status of the weather (together with the other newly registered  people) from Finland.

[hwyl]

Minus -32,5 degrees in Nurmo, in Southern Ostrobothnia at ca 12.30 today - perfectly clear blue skies, the cold air really hits your face...

 

Edited January 2 by hwyl

[hwyl]

Now -31 - just our own thermometre, nothing  official. But what an intoxicating feeling to go from +95 to -31! I haven't experienced that kind of extreme contrast since my teenage, sauna is such bliss both in hot and cold weather! The 10 day forecast is very wintery even for Helsinki, but it will gradually go milder towards the end of the period. This week will be one of the coldest for years.

[Pauski]

9 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Welcome Pauski..

 It would be nice if  you could keep us informed of the status of the weather (together with the other newly registered  people) from Finland.

My municipality of residence is Called Nurmijärvi, about 30 kilometers to the north  from Helsinki.  Currently tempperature is 21c, but i do not think that we get - 30c here. 

We have river Called Vantaanjoki, and here are place Called "myllykoski", now it has lot of ice and looks beatiful. 

Sorry if taking this Off topic. 

[cheese]

I'm sure we will see a pretty big increase in Baltic Sea ice over the coming week with the very cold temperatures. The Swedish Meteorological institute has released multiple warnings for severe ice accretion in the Baltic. January is still pretty early in the season so it will be interesting to see how much ice actually forms. 

Edited January 2 by cheese

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

I'm sure we will see a pretty big increase in Baltic Sea ice over the coming week with the very cold temperatures. The Swedish Meteorological institute has released multiple warnings for severe ice accretion in the Baltic. January is still pretty early in the season so it will be interesting to see how much ice actually forms. 

Yep already a big increase today   -

and now looking to move further south.

https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf

MIA

[Kaisla]

The latest icechart for the Baltic Sea tells that Bay of Bothnia and Merenkurkku/Kvarken are now fully frozen. Next area to freeze is the archipelago between Turku and Åland Islands. Wind is forecasted to be 5 - 7 m/s next 24 hours or so and weakening after that or calming down completely. I think it is possible for that area to freeze by Sunday/Monday.

Gulf of Finland has gained some ice, but wind has been far too strong. For example Helsinki lighthouse somewhat in the middle section of the gulf has seen winds blowing from 8m/s to 14 m/s. But nearer to St Petersburg wind has been weaker and there is new ice.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Two days into the new year and with things looking interesting for next 2 week in the UK, I thought an update on the Arctic ice and snow might be useful for some...

Whilst snow is currently below average, I can see big changes next week with much colder air in both Europe and the north and west of the North American continent, bringing a lot of snow.

Sea ice is different though, with currently extent at near record levels for the last 20 years for overall, although this is caused mainly by excess ice outside the Arctic basin -   in the Pacific oceans.

Thanks to both Maise and  the ASIF (Jaxa) for the data below -

Masie extent is at a new high for the last 17 years currently (though its history is not totally pucka over 10 years),

 

with Baltic and Barents shown below -

       and        

Also Greenland ocean sea is fairly packed at the moment -

So any winds from the north and particularly the Baltic could carry an icy blast this year.

More detail of the Baltic is shown for today -

https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf  

and this will increase rapidly this week as -20C to  -40c air blows in from the northern Arctic waters. 

Just in case someone is not happy using Masie for ice detail, I show the Jaxa ice extents from today's reports -

    

This shows this year to be 18th out of the last 20 years.. Only last year and 2012 were better at this point in the year, and I expect that these  will be exceeded shortly as the momentum seems to be gaining this year. IF this does happen we will be looking at the 2000 average  (as well as 2010's already over-taken) being exceeded.

All very positive for the Northern hemisphere for  a cold outlook,

PS I'm all ready for  a North Sea  sea ice report!!!!!        

MIA

     

 

 

  

Edited January 3 by Midlands Ice Age

[Metwatch]

[nobble]

4 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Two days into the new year and with things looking interesting for next 2 week in the UK, I thought an update on the Arctic ice and snow might be useful for some...

Whilst snow is currently below average, I can see big changes next week with much colder air in both Europe and the north and west of the North American continent, bringing a lot of snow.

Sea ice is different though, with currently extent at near record levels for the last 20 years for overall, although this is caused mainly by excess ice outside the Arctic basin -   in the Pacific oceans.

Thanks to both Maise and  the ASIF (Jaxa) for the data below -

Masie extent is at a new high for the last 17 years currently (though its history is not totally pucka over 10 years),

 

with Baltic and Barents shown below -

       and        

Also Greenland ocean sea is fairly packed at the moment -

So any winds from the north and particularly the Baltic could carry an icy blast this year.

More detail of the Baltic is shown for today -

https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf  

and this will increase rapidly this week as -20C to  -40c air blows in from the northern Arctic waters. 

Just in case someone is not happy using Masie for ice detail, I show the Jaxa ice extents from today's reports -

    

This shows this year to be 18th out of the last 20 years.. Only last year and 2012 were better at this point in the year, and I expect that these  will be exceeded shortly as the momentum seems to be gaining this year. IF this does happen we will be looking at the 2000 average  (as well as 2010's already over-taken) being exceeded.

All very positive for the Northern hemisphere for  a cold outlook,

PS I'm all ready for  a North Sea  sea ice report!!!!!        

MIA

     

 

 

  

I did say about the ice reaching Shetland