Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[cheese]

On 17/11/2023 at 15:53, Midlands Ice Age said:

Well I have had my 3 days of hibernation , and although it started quietly  the Arctic has suddenly burst into life, possibly more quickly than forecast.

To start off with the Arctic temp map (and a comparison to last year   -

             

shows a similar profile so far (with the one exaggerated increase this year), but we have now reached a stasis at more or less the same as last year. at the same point.

Despite this slowdown in the last couple of days sea ice extent seems to have gone crazy...

Ice has leapt into action with Jaxa (ASIF based with thanks) showing gains of 164K Km2 and (178K Km2) in the last 2 days to move this year up by no less than 6 places (from 10th lowest   to 15th in the last 18years) in just 2 days.

          

Masie is showing similar gains -   of 228K Km2 yesterday, - and although todays data is not yet in, I expect a gain of at least 250)k KM2 -  It is clear that a very large increase has occurred today as ice extent total has leapt to 10.3K KM2. . 

 

In its own right yesterday's data was notable as it hit the 10,000K Km2 (was 9.97K Km2) -  and this at  the same date as the previous 2 years., also this year it means we have frozen an extra 3 -  500K Km2  - because of the lower start figure.

I am unaware  that this sort of date 'stability' in the sea ice extent figures has occurred previously. It must mean something , but not sure what. Although in about 3 weeks time (early Dec) , there is a long term trend that all the  yearly figures merge together.... probably when most of the 'easy' internal to the basin ice has  frozen out., and before the outer ice gets going.

In addition  ........   

I have managed a sneak preview of the weather charts to see how well the GFS predictions are turning out.

 So far they are almost spot on,  with the USA still undergoing  a snow retraction up to the 48th parallel, whilst Russia despite having a lesser amount compared to last year (see below) has suddenly, today, expanded southwards in the central and western areas (compared to previous day  (and also the last year). Heavy snowfall is indeed occurring in Siberia and Scandy, as predicted.

              Last year        

However -     Scandinavia is much more advanced this year.

 This is a picture provided by Carinthian (from his sister in Stockholm) who had just seen  her first snowfall of the winter (last year) on Nov 20th!!!  Whereas we have had most of Scandy covered for about 3 weeks now!!!.

  

The colder air has just started to appear in Northern Russia and it is forecast to really get cold their in the latest 10 day charts from GFS   

  

with temps down below -50c minimum and wide areas of Europe falling below freezing. (PS... this is today's 06Z run which turned cold even in the UK.)...

The latest GFS run also sees colder air crossing into the US again, as  a vigorous depression forms just to the east of Hudson Bay.  

We will see.....

MIA

 

  

 

 

Stockholm forecast looks pretty cold...

 

[Aleman]

Snow comes in waves and forecasts suggest extent might jump again in the next few days but some might just view that as noise.  The general extent trend had been looking pretty average this year , after a few higher years, while mass is tracking a little above average but that is no dramatic change from some recent higher years. One might argue it's slightly up on average or slightly down on recent years or not particularly going anywhere until we get more data. Take your pick.

(I recall similar from Rutger's Laboratories that snow extent was rising in Autumn, not doing a lot in Winter, but falling in Spring - over a 40+ year period. Again, you take your pick until we get another decade or two into the data to make one look more probably than the others.)

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Aleman

[Windysun1]

Hi all,

Stupid question maybe but i thought i read somewhere that the antartic sea ice was increasing? 

It was going against the grain of what the scientists were predicting.

Is this not the case any longer?

[johncam]

1 hour ago, Windysun1 said:

Hi all,

Stupid question maybe but i thought i read somewhere that the antartic sea ice was increasing? 

It was going against the grain of what the scientists were predicting.

Is this not the case any longer?

Nope it's currently at an all time low 

[Windysun1]

18 minutes ago, johncam said:

Nope it's currently at an all time low 

Thanks John, must have been dreaming.

[booferking]

3 hours ago, Windysun1 said:

Hi all,

Stupid question maybe but i thought i read somewhere that the antartic sea ice was increasing? 

It was going against the grain of what the scientists were predicting.

Is this not the case any longer?

Depends what articles you read I've read plenty say its growing and plenty say its melting  

[jonboy]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Depends what articles you read I've read plenty say its growing and plenty say its melting  

The figures I've seen suggests a slow down in the rate of loss of ice for this time of year.  If it continues at this rate for the rest of their summer it is likely it will no longer be at the lowest level on record.  Interesting times.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Following on from the above posts about ANTARCTIC ice and there not be a similar thread I will supply the correct info...

Thanks to the ASIF

      Extent

and Area -

                 

2 to 3 months ago we were running at lows but there has been a recovery (against anomalies) recently .

So 'doomster' reporters are somewhat out of date.

I strongly 'suspect' that this drop in the Antarctic  ice is caused by the H20 put out by Hunga Tonga. (time will tell). It is being researched right now.

Perhaps what is of more significance is the overall sea ice totals -

 

which have been performing strongly recently due to the Arctic sea ice  performance (see late today for details.).

MIA

[jonboy]

48 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Following on from the above posts about ANTARCTIC ice and there not be a similar thread I will supply the correct info...

Thanks to the ASIF

      Extent

and Area -

                 

2 to 3 months ago we were running at lows but there has been a recovery (against anomalies) recently .

So 'doomster' reporters are somewhat out of date.

I strongly 'suspect' that this drop in the Antarctic  ice is caused by the H20 put out by Hunga Tonga. (time will tell). It is being researched right now.

Perhaps what is of more significance is the overall sea ice totals -

 

which have been performing strongly recently due to the Arctic sea ice  performance (see late today for details.).

MIA

Thanks MIA confirmed my thoughts especially with reference to Hunga Tonga. The research ongoing I believe will change a few preconceived notions re ice etc.

[johncam]

Antarctic sea ice has been at unprecedented low extent the last two years which is worrying which is impacting ice shelf stability 

[Stravaiger]

2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Following on from the above posts about ANTARCTIC ice and there not be a similar thread I will supply the correct info...

Thanks to the ASIF

      Extent

and Area -

                 

2 to 3 months ago we were running at lows but there has been a recovery (against anomalies) recently .

So 'doomster' reporters are somewhat out of date.

I strongly 'suspect' that this drop in the Antarctic  ice is caused by the H20 put out by Hunga Tonga. (time will tell). It is being researched right now.

Perhaps what is of more significance is the overall sea ice totals -

 

which have been performing strongly recently due to the Arctic sea ice  performance (see late today for details.).

MIA

Really interested that you look at the total sea ice area chart and see that as "performing strongly".

When I look at it, I see that, yes, the negative anomaly is decreasing but we're still currently 2 million km^2 below the 1990s average for total sea ice area...

That's an enormous loss of sea ice.

I'm not trying to be doomster at all...I'm delighted the Arctic ice is doing ok this autumn, esp. pleased to see it doing better in the Barents than in previous years, and I'd love for there to be evidence that these decadal trends are starting to reverse. But we need to be eyes wide open about where we're at in relation to even just 30 years ago so we don't lose perspective on how our cryosphere is changing.

Sorry if that brings the mood down in this thread - not my intention! I get as excited about the boreal autumn's expansion of snow and ice as the next man, which is partly why I mourn the losses.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, Stravaiger said:

Really interested that you look at the total sea ice area chart and see that as "performing strongly".

When I look at it, I see that, yes, the negative anomaly is decreasing but we're still currently 2 million km^2 below the 1990s average for total sea ice area...

That's an enormous loss of sea ice.

I'm not trying to be doomster at all...I'm delighted the Arctic ice is doing ok this autumn, esp. pleased to see it doing better in the Barents than in previous years, and I'd love for there to be evidence that these decadal trends are starting to reverse. But we need to be eyes wide open about where we're at in relation to even just 30 years ago so we don't lose perspective on how our cryosphere is changing.

Sorry if that brings the mood down in this thread - not my intention! I get as excited about the boreal autumn's expansion of snow and ice as the next man, which is partly why I mourn the losses.

 

Stravaiger..

My comment related to the last 2 months performance only -

 

Which has bounced back strongly - as shown by the chart above...

I too am interested in the total sea ice, but it can not be in this thread. (which for a reminder - is N H snow and ice).

Why not (re)/open a  thread and discuss it there?

MIA

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Back to snow and ice in the NH after a 5 day break....

I will be doing a separate post on the weather outlook later, in a further note....

The last update 5  days ago, seems  to have been the last of the larger increase of extent for just now as most of the inner areas are pretty well full, We now seem to be entering the 'stasis' until serious ice starts to freeze in the outer areas. (Early December is the normal time, but we seem a bit earlier this year).

Total increases of +58K, +64K, +59K. +30K and today -30K have left us still top of the  last 5 years  during this time.

  Jaxa has kept us between 11th and 16th during its 18 years review. |(ie 3rd to 8th highest)

The slow down has happened despite another large drop in temperature in the last 5days. 

DMI above 80 degrees now show we are at 'normal' for the last 50 years. This is for the inner Arctic circle.

  This average temperature is now at -25C.  

Ice production carried on for three days in the normal way  (for this year) in Barents, Bering  Chukchi and Kara due to persistent N Easterlies, and was lower in the N American sea areas.

However a change seems to have happened in the last 2 days.  Strong SW are now sweeping into the North Atlantic arctic sea areas as a vigorous depression forms to the east of Greenland  

 and this seems to be pushing the ice back east again, over the Central Arctic., 

Speaking of the Central Arctic it would seem as though the Central Arctic sea basin  (CAB) (above 80 degrees) has nearly hit the 'maximum' at the earliest for many years.

  The small area to the NW of Svalbard is the last area to freeze out. It is always the most difficult.

 

Possibly of interest to some is that the temperatures  are looking to drop further (possibly due to the slack areas of pressure over the rest of the Arctic)..

          

 

 

 

Snow is now expected to sweep into Europe and into America (below 48) in the  next few days, to put the snow anomalies back to normal, and possibly to severely impact the northern Hemisphere above 60 degrees north.

.                                                                   Yesterday   -          

 As can be seen the snow is already moving towards Europe, and more extension both westwards and southwards seem likely.

A second burst of cold air is predicted for North America, commencing over the weekend.

All for now

MIA

[Dorsetbred]

On 18/11/2023 at 16:10, Midlands Ice Age said:

thanks Metwatch, I notice someone (Dorsetbred?) posted on the Nordic thread that the temp at  1200m was -22C today at 14:00 in Finland

MIA 

Did you see it hit -30°C  last night before a warm front brought snow to the area and the temperature climbed up to -9°C ? It's snowing heavily now.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Following on,  as promised,  a simplified view of the N Hemispheric Arctic weather!!!

I think we have all  been watching the probable development of a cold spell in Europe,  according to the gospel of St GFS   !!!    It still hasn't happened but it looks as if it has got the N hemispheric profile more correct than most at the moment.

Certainly since my last update 8 days ago, it has been pretty good over the Arctic circle. So, very tentatively, I will attempt an evaluation of this complicated change in the northern atmospheric profile, and give the GFS view as to where it is leading.

Firstly as already posted in my previous post, the temperature has fallen to its historic low (for time of year) average.

This has come about as a result of a fairly slack Arctic profile allowing temperatures to drop in the still cold nights.  (was accurately predicted). 

Typically there are temps of below -40C from N Canada to central Siberia. (at min) , to -20C maximums.

 

The current GFS charts are below (day 1-3)-

       

 

- Characterised by a slack relatively high pressure central portion, and protected by 4 major depressions. One over the Aleutians - blocking off the Pacific, one off eastern Greenland (filling) pushing WAA up into the Arctic as it traverses into  Scandinavia, one over northern Canada supplying WAA up through Greenland, and one connecting to the Scandy trough, from central southern Asia.

The major overall effect is to cool  Europe into the already cold Scandinavian high pressure, and to spread more cold air into China also  to start to move colder air into most of North America.

Still no real signs of the southern-most jet really firing up, in the USA (or Atlantic via downstream mechanisms).

Move forward 5 days -

     

As can be seen the 4 depressions are now down to just one, out over the Bering Sea which is starting to warm up the eastern Arctic. 

However elsewhere we have lost all momentum with slack high and low pressure areas close together, allowing the Arctic to keep its colder air over the pole whilst pushing cold air masses into Europe, China and North America, and all this time, Greenland continues to overheat!! There is still no sign of the southern jet-stream anywhere near our latitudes.

The only one into Europe is very impressive in that it is  a reverse jet stream stretching back to China marked by a line of snowfall. - A long shot,  IMO

Onto first week of December  (day 10) -

         

 

Changes are small over the Artic, but  further south we are seeing substantial differences, with high pressure dominating in the main.

So, nothing  has changed too much for the Arctic, but the low over Bering has filled somewhat and has moved westwards to allow colder air to be pulled out of the Arctic, and into the Pacific based countries.  The major change for the Atlantic basin is the appearance of high pressure  from Iceland via Scandy to Central Asia,  This has the effect of re-enforcing the afore-mentioned reverse jet stream into Europe, with  an increased band of precipitation along its length.

Colder air persists in Europe  and central Asia. and  the anomalies show warm/heat. red- hot  in Northern Russia,-  remember it will still be below -25C average temperature there.

In N America we see a central warmer area surrounded by cold in both the north,  west and east.  -  Pretty average overall, and with no severe outbreaks of colder weather, just yet.        High pressure is generally in the ascendency.

 

 

These charts represent major changes to the 'normal' winter weather patterns as seen over the last 30 years.   

The normal atmospheric profiles (including the polar vortex) look completely discarded. 

Lets  see what happens - it could still be very wrong.

MIA

Edited November 22, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Stravaiger]

We're about to see a big expansion of snow cover across central and even parts of western Europe. Some bits of the alps exposed to the north winds will see over a metre of snowfall in the next 48 hours.

Not bad for autumn and likely to push NH snow cover extent above average again - just in time for the start of meteorological winter !

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

On 22/11/2023 at 06:34, Windysun1 said:

Hi all,

Stupid question maybe but i thought i read somewhere that the antartic sea ice was increasing? 

It was going against the grain of what the scientists were predicting.

Is this not the case any longer?

The Antarctic is about three weeks away from mid-summer's day, so I'll guess at decreasing at the moment. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Russia now completely covered

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 22/11/2023 at 12:33, johncam said:

Antarctic sea ice has been at unprecedented low extent the last two years which is worrying which is impacting ice shelf stability 

John..

 Thanks for the post... I was wondering weather to reply or not. (outside scope of thread and we do not want CC introduced into here as well ) 

I am also interested (rather than worrying) into what has happened and I have done some research into the situation , rather than just  accepting info reported on the media//internet. Yesterday, whilst looking into this,  I had TV on the BBC2 climate change documentary progs on the Arctic ice decline. They, in all their interest of their serious 'science' are still using Prof Wadham's remarks about the total elimination of the Arctic by 2013i , as being extremely likely, if not probable. 

So it made me do even more evaluation of your statements.

Firstly from the ASIF I have looked back at the charts for the last 24 months.  (that covers  when the Huna Tonga erupted by the way 20 months ago), as before that the Antartic had been reasonably stable, (in its variations governed by the ENSO (?)).. 

Also  - it is almost exactly 12 months since the Antarctic ice pack first showed the major drop in its sea ice.

I attach graphs showing actual details -

 

So it was around (below) average until Nov 22 and then dropped to bottom place for quite a while ...

      then step forward to today  -  

It now appears to be recovering.

So the 'drop' lasted almost  18 months starting in May/June 22 (quickie), but not really affecting things until Nov 22. 

This is exactly the time when any effects from Hunga Tongs would be expected to show up....   (6 months to 18 months - as forecast for a huge increase (25%)  in H2O in the stratosphere in the southern hemisphere   -     according to climate change.....

Furthermore the tropospheric short term could account for the earlier 'blip'. But that would have soon got washed out.!

So, provided if it is a temporary phenomena it fits in the CC pattern very well!! 

 I did go into more detail looking at the areas in more detail, which showed huge swings, with the 'Pacific' sector worst affected , but felt the overall view showed things quite well.

No more from me     ...      happy to go to another thread.

MIA 

 

[johncam]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

John..

 Thanks for the post... I was wondering weather to reply or not. (outside scope of thread and we do not want CC introduced into here as well ) 

I am also interested (rather than worrying) into what has happened and I have done some research into the situation , rather than just  accepting info reported on the media//internet. Yesterday, whilst looking into this,  I had TV on the BBC2 climate change documentary progs on the Arctic ice decline. They, in all their interest of their serious 'science' are still using Prof Wadham's remarks about the total elimination of the Arctic by 2013i , as being extremely likely, if not probable. 

So it made me do even more evaluation of your statements.

Firstly from the ASIF I have looked back at the charts for the last 24 months.  (that covers  when the Huna Tonga erupted by the way 20 months ago), as before that the Antartic had been reasonably stable, (in its variations governed by the ENSO (?)).. 

Also  - it is almost exactly 12 months since the Antarctic ice pack first showed the major drop in its sea ice.

I attach graphs showing actual details -

 

So it was around (below) average until Nov 22 and then dropped to bottom place for quite a while ...

      then step forward to today  -  

It now appears to be recovering.

So the 'drop' lasted almost  18 months starting in May/June 22 (quickie), but not really affecting things until Nov 22. 

This is exactly the time when any effects from Hunga Tongs would be expected to show up....   (6 months to 18 months - as forecast for a huge increase (25%)  in H2O in the stratosphere in the southern hemisphere   -     according to climate change.....

Furthermore the tropospheric short term could account for the earlier 'blip'. But that would have soon got washed out.!

So, provided if it is a temporary phenomena it fits in the CC pattern very well!! 

 I did go into more detail looking at the areas in more detail, which showed huge swings, with the 'Pacific' sector worst affected , but felt the overall view showed things quite well.

No more from me     ...      happy to go to another thread.

MIA 

 

Thanks MIA

[cheese]

Stockholm today

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by cheese

[Midlands Ice Age]

BIg leap forward of the snow cover into Europe. An even bigger one in 3 days time. 

      

Sea ice  has stopped increasing for the last 2 days, and total Arctic ice has fallen to just below 2021 and 2022, again.

Expect some large increases next week.

Continued 'stasis' whilst the temp is still low,

Beginning to look like its the new normal. as I noticed it last year also.  Very odd.!

MIA

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 22/11/2023 at 06:34, Windysun1 said:

Hi all,

Stupid question maybe but i thought i read somewhere that the antartic sea ice was increasing? 

It was going against the grain of what the scientists were predicting.

Is this not the case any longer?

You are correct….it’s recovering rapidly.  The Antarctic continent has been posting serious cold of late again…the lack of sea ice has been down to ocean currents and wind circulation.  
 

BFTP

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

You are correct….it’s recovering rapidly.  The Antarctic continent has been posting serious cold of late again…the lack of sea ice has been down to ocean currents and wind circulation.  
 

BFTP

Welcome back BFTV......

You will be very welcome on here.

MIA 

[Day 10]

23 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

John..

 Thanks for the post... I was wondering weather to reply or not. (outside scope of thread and we do not want CC introduced into here as well ) 

I am also interested (rather than worrying) into what has happened and I have done some research into the situation , rather than just  accepting info reported on the media//internet. Yesterday, whilst looking into this,  I had TV on the BBC2 climate change documentary progs on the Arctic ice decline. They, in all their interest of their serious 'science' are still using Prof Wadham's remarks about the total elimination of the Arctic by 2013i , as being extremely likely, if not probable. 

So it made me do even more evaluation of your statements.

Firstly from the ASIF I have looked back at the charts for the last 24 months.  (that covers  when the Huna Tonga erupted by the way 20 months ago), as before that the Antartic had been reasonably stable, (in its variations governed by the ENSO (?)).. 

Also  - it is almost exactly 12 months since the Antarctic ice pack first showed the major drop in its sea ice.

I attach graphs showing actual details -

 

So it was around (below) average until Nov 22 and then dropped to bottom place for quite a while ...

      then step forward to today  -  

It now appears to be recovering.

So the 'drop' lasted almost  18 months starting in May/June 22 (quickie), but not really affecting things until Nov 22. 

This is exactly the time when any effects from Hunga Tongs would be expected to show up....   (6 months to 18 months - as forecast for a huge increase (25%)  in H2O in the stratosphere in the southern hemisphere   -     according to climate change.....

Furthermore the tropospheric short term could account for the earlier 'blip'. But that would have soon got washed out.!

So, provided if it is a temporary phenomena it fits in the CC pattern very well!! 

 I did go into more detail looking at the areas in more detail, which showed huge swings, with the 'Pacific' sector worst affected , but felt the overall view showed things quite well.

No more from me     ...      happy to go to another thread.

MIA 

 

Excellent MIA, interesting read once again.