Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Winter slowly creeping into Northern Canada

 

 

 

[Aleman]

Similar forecast for the Canadian Archipelago. Snow, snow, and then clears with temps to -15C. 

Resolute, NU - 7 Day Forecast - Environment Canada

WEATHER.GC.CA

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Current conditions and forecasts including 7 day outlook, daily high/low temperature, warnings, chance of precipitation, pressure, humidity/wind chill (when applicable) historical data, normals, record values and...

This should bring rapid freeze up and closure of the Northwest Passage to non-ice class vessels - not that any are left there.  They are long gone. It would be madness to sail through enough snow to destabilise a small yacht when you can't see either.  6 weeks is a good length open. Whilst some might worry about the warming, the Northeast Passage/Northern Route has not clearly opened this year. It's been sort of "maybe" for the last couple of weeks and probably full of slush from all the snow. If so, we'll see it freeze quickly as surface water will have little salt.

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Snowfall becoming more general by the day now, and with a deep cold depression forming over Southern Hudson Bay, expect widespread increases over Canada.

Also with the Arctic lows being pushed towards Central northern Russia over the eastern side of the Arctic we will see colder air sweeping into Scandinavia soon and then moving eastwards across the north of Russia. Even Moscow is possible to see some of the white stuff next week, as the cold air extends across Russia.

Whilst this happens high pressure will form over the Central Arctic, and this will allow the cold air over Greenland to move out over the ice fields, with clearer skies and the longer dark nights ensuring dropping temperatures..

 

See the Climate Reanalyser graphs below for the movement of the colder air with snow  into the Northern hemisphere during the first part of next week.

              

MIA

Edited October 5, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 05/10/2023 at 08:28, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Winter slowly creeping into Northern Canada

 

 

 

 

Not that slow....

Compare it with todays charts -

A big increase in Alaska, Canada and Central SIberia today.

MIA 

Edited October 6, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[carinthian]

My daughter who lives in Stockholm tells me of reports this morning of quite widespread snowfall in the Jamtland Region with temps close to 0C and -5 c on the  summits. The snow cover should  show up in the pixel charts tomorrow. She also reports some sleet in the city currently with a temp of 3c and a chilled wind off The Baltic...  Brr 

C

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

My daughter who lives in Stockholm tells me of reports this morning of quite widespread snowfall in the Jamtland Region with temps close to 0C and -5 c on the  summits. The snow cover should  show up in the pixel charts tomorrow. She also reports some sleet in the city currently with a temp of 3c and a chilled wind off The Baltic...  Brr 

C

C..

Its already there quite widely along the west coast, according to this mornings  (yesterdays)  charts.

        .

MIA

Edited October 7, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Winter in the Northern Hemisphere is now driving forward.....

With this mornings news of more widespread general snowfalls comes news (as I anticipated early last week) of some large sea ice extent increases now that the deep low over the East Siberian Sea has started to fill. These increases have not been more generally reported as Jaxa reporting has been off the 'air' for 10 days for maintenance.

However Masie has been reporting today of 2 days large sea ice extent increases of 264K Km2 and today 130K Km2.

DMI for Arctic temperatures is also 'hors de combat', so not easy to understand exactly what is happening.

Most of this increase has come in Chukchi, the ESS and Laptev. Exactly the last areas to melt out and as reported by Aleman have the lowest SST's in the Arctic, and also (from him) which have been hit by large snowfalls over the last week as the depression stormed in.

This increase has returned the sea ice extent to its previous position in the charts compared to the last 2 years freezes, after the melt out in August .

See Maisie below -

    

Also of interest is that Maise has recorded the first real sea ice of the year in Hudson Bay and the Bering Ocean.

Climate Reanalyser (tonights) now showing the rapid extension of the snow/ice cover. It is also showing that this will continue into next week,  moving SE into North America and quickly eastwards from a now rapidly cooling Scandinavia.  

               

 

 

     

Next week could well see us catch up with 2022 and 2021 for the Autumn refreeze.

MIA

Edited October 7, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

As well as ice now growing out from the central and Siberian Russian Coast, we've now got ice growing out from the Alaskan Coast, possibly helped along by all that snow. Unusually (?), there is even a little ice forming along the western coast of Alaska below the Arctic circle. I suspect some of this will be heavy snow that will melt out of maps again as it mixes into brinier waters. (You'll need to zoom in quite a bit to make it clear and the best map does not embed so click on the link to see that.)

NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program (ASIP)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

 

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Aleman

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Lots of new pixels into Scandinavia

 

[Redbull165]

Mostly Scandinavia will see a massive extension of snow cover in the next 10 days. A  good sign I would say.

 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Redbull165

[Aleman]

Next weekend could be a shock after England's current summery weather. Note the latest run shows snow settling on the Northern Pennines. Anyway, most of the remaining clear, western Russian coast looks set for a good snowfall, with something significant for the Rockies as a bonus

 

[Aleman]

The Canadian Sea Ice Service also shows new ice growing out from the coast adjacent to Alaska. Temperature maps suggest much of the rest of th eneighbouring Canadian Archipelago is about to freeze up, even if progress is behind normal at the moment. The sea around the islands is around 0C to -2C whereas the new ice in the image below is actually in an area where sea is +2 or +3C.  Any shallow areas or areas affected by residual snow or pack ice will be locally colder, though. Once a cold top layer of fresh water or slush is established, it's hard for the denser warm water to well up. (Below 4C colder fresh water is less dense and sits on top. Colder water only sinks through warmer, as we are familiar with,  above 4C which is fresh water's densest temperature at normal atmospheric pressure - a bit lower for salt water, which complicates the issue. It's a good job or ponds would freeze solid to the bottom and kill most aquatic life rather than just freeze on top and insulate the rest if the pond from the atmospheric cold.)

Edited October 9, 2023 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

More good news on snow from four of todays posts above.

Looks to me as if this will expand over the next week despite us being stuck in a heatwave!.

GFS/ECM  looking towards a Scandy high starting up next week, just as the cold builds up over there,

We couldn't get a cold easterly this early could we?  

Any way enough wishful thinking... back to todays actual figures for ice...

NSIDC came back on line today and gave a largish increase in area today of 96K Km2. This means that the area has been built by 6.9% (60K Km2) above the average for this time of ice growth this year. Seems to be a trend these days that a large loss is followed by rapid gains.

         

The last week has moved its position from second lowest to fourth, and looks to me ready to continue its trend.

Masie has just updated with a further 54K Km2 increase in extent, so continuing the trend.

Still no news from JAXA.

 

DMI temperature  has just updated its data files for the last 10 days. -  Not the graph yet though.

During the last 10 days it has fallen from an average of -7C to -11C, still above the last 60 years figures, but is now likely to fall steadily, as there is no sign of milder air making it into the Arctic.

Quite the opposite really as Climate Reanalyser (4-6 days ahead) shows min temps of -50C  (very cold indeed) for the Greenland plateau.

MIA

    

Edited October 9, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

The sea ice is now really getting going .......

TRIPLE century increase reported by Maisie today..

As I forecast last week we have seen the low pressure fill over the Arctic,  and this is now on an upward pressure  trend towards a strong high over the Arctic in a few days time.

Currently we have a slack low pressure situation and this is best for Arctic ice formation.

   

As can be seen Maise has now burst thru' the figure for 2021 and is now behind 2022, with a 316K Km2 increase..

All  sea areas saw increases with the exception of Hudson.

However major increases were seen in the ESS and Chukchi which coincided with a start to a major ice refreeze all along the Russian coastline. (see below)

 

         (Zoom for more detail), This shows the 'Northern' route is now closed.

This is also a precursor for a rapid refreeze in the area.

Temperatures as shown by the DMI graph have now been fixed .....

  

NSIDC Area and extent have updated today and both show improving ice and are now in 6th and 7th position. 

 

Still I expect large snowfalls by the end of this week.   Keep watching as winter tightens its hold on the Arctic..

MIA

Edited October 10, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

Exiting week ahead

[Aleman]

"This shows the Northern Route is now closed"

Are you implying it was open prior? That bit of the Northern Route might have been open to non ice-class vessels for several weeks but DMI (reinforced by sea temp maps and the Alaska Sea Ice Program in part) suggests it's never really opened around Siberia and Wrangel Island.  You can see ever present ice if you step back though the DMI series.  I like to follow the attempts of small pleasure craft to through the Northwest Passage. That's been open 6 weeks on all sources and is now almost closed again but, in my book, the Northern Route/Northeast Passage has never really opened properly.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

9 hours ago, nobble said:

Exiting week ahead

Last week was very good for both snow and ice...

   https://usicecenter.gov/current/ims20231010alaska-7ani.gi

f

    

Can we better it?

MIA

Edited October 11, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Dorsetbred]

As noted on Monday by Redbull165, the cold moist air has arrived in Northern Finland this morning, kicking off winter 23 for them.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Another century break (+125K KM2) added to the ice extent according to Masie  today...

This takes us above 2022 winter refreeze for the first time this season. 

   

It is remarkable how this year has moved from the slowest group to the fastest in just 10days and just shows how changes in weather conditions have an effect on ice formation.

Today the gains comes mainly from Beaufort (+73K KM2), (which so far had not seen much refreeze), but also thru nice gains (+26K and +27K) in Chukchi and the ESS again.

A couple of screenshots to add to show how the ice is also rapidly forming along coastlines now -

1) The Alaska coastline (with the East Siberian ocean freeze also shown)

   (zoom to examine in detail)

 

2) Svalbard  - already ice is forming in the  lochs around the islands  - and the main ice pack is just offshore -

   (again zoom to have full impact)

Extremely early and more like the refreezes of the 1980's 

Coming back to Masie....

2022 had a minor hiccup about now which lasted until Friday, After that it stormed away,  averaging 4 double century gains in consecutive days. To achieve this this year would be remarkable , however, 2021 should be surpassed as it was slow to take-off from here  due to the presence  of a long lasting easterly straight from the Pacific Ocean.  I remember my nemesis BFTW forecasting it very well - I haven't heard from him in a while -  unfortunately.

MIA

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

Fingers crossed the ice keeps growing at this rate 

could we have a notable winter coming

[Aleman]

Picking up slushy snow again? Last time it happened, it faded out in warmer areas over a few days but seemed to advance ice at the edge of the main pack and along the central Russian Coast. Also note how the main pack is "spiking" out to Wrangel Island, where DMI has shown a "streamer" of ice from the main pack hanging on all summer. So the ice is probably already there in a low concentration that is not picked up and displayed by some algorithms that have a higher threshhold.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Aleman

[Markus03]

Looks like Russia's Moscow gets a lot of snow sometime next week. It's pretty South so I'm even surprised to see snow there due to the current climate. Then again, it's not close to the sea like some of it's neighborting countries so it really helps. Remember that the Baltic sea is still warm. 

 

Also don't get too excited October and November show cold, December has westerlies again so the snow staying right now is just a wishful thinking. 

Edited October 15, 2023 by Markus03

[ANYWEATHER]

10 minutes ago, Markus03 said:

Looks like Russia's Moscow gets a lot of snow sometime next week. It's pretty South so I'm even surprised to see snow there due to the current climate. Then again, it's not close to the sea like some of it's neighborting countries so it really helps. Remember that the Baltic sea is still warm. 

 

Also don't get too excited October and November show cold, December has westerlies again so the snow staying right now is just a wishful thinking. 

There was snow in the Sahara a year or two back, first time in gererations , so current warming or no current warming it happens☺

[Markus03]

Sure, but for the most part we will get more warmer weather than colder. This may have even been the last time in Sahara. 2050 again? Seems unlikely.

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 Days since my last update so here goes...

Overall not as good as I was expecting for the snowfall.

Snow has been coming and going in Canada, whilst the snow moving across Northern Russia has not occured , except spasmodically in Central Russia -  It is still being forecast for this coming week.

 

Sea ice has also been erratic with gains over the last few days of -34K Km2, +64K KM2 , +216K KM2 and yesterday -33K KM2, Today will be broadly neutral.  (Masie below)

 

              

Still managing to maintain contact with the higher group.

Jaxa has been out of action for 10 days, and is expected to update again tomorrow.

I am interested in  Aleman's post above  ... 

Climate Reanalyser still persists in showing ice/snow in areas of Kara (In particular) and also Beaufort, ESS  and Laptev which are not being picked up as sea ice extent by the ice models.. 

      and SSW temperatures are certainly low -

   

so refreeze could be starting to occur.

 

Areas such as Beaufort and the ESS are now under the influence of major anticyclone which has developed over the central Arctic 

 

and so I cannot see that it is snowfall. It must therefore be sea ice in very low concentrations (less than 15%) for it not to show in the extent figures. This might also explain why 'area' sea ice numbers are increasing steadily (more than 100K Km2  recorded over the last 4 days by the NSIDC ). If this is correct then we can expect some fairly rapid and large sea ice increases over the next few days, as temperatures are still falling rapidly under the clear skies (and no sun!) being shown on the min temp weather charts.

            

This shows widespread sub -50C in Greenland and now below -30C over the Arctic main pack.

The area of most interest to me is Kara as this doesn't normally re-freeze for another few weeks.

Last year when the ice had already connected in the Wrangell Islands for example, it had still not started to freeze in Kara. 

  

An anticyclonic cold week expected in the Arctic during the next week.

MIA

 

Edited October 15, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age