Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, Tidal Wave said:

The first snow has arrived in Longyearbyen: https://portlongyear.kystnor.no/

Looking at the archive it seems a little earlier than in the last few years.

 

Looks like the cold is going to get locked up there for the rest of this month.

[Midlands Ice Age]

More good news for snow and ice freaks...

Snow in addition to covering Svalbard has extended its reach in Siberia - more expected soon. (PS Svalbard just on the edge of this map).    

But the real news is that the ASIF have called the melt season over, after 1 small extent gain +6k, followed yesterday by a +24K gain on JAXA -

    (Map shows Area also moving upward.).

That really means we have moved into the Refreeze season.

But  the real icing on the cake ( to set the trend in motion) is my personal favourite Masie.

It had a gain of no less than +240K yesterday followed by +29K today. That gain appeared to be the East Siberian and Laptev covering the 'Laptev' bite in one huge leap. Exceptional for this early in the season (though so large I wonder whether it is an anomaly from  the satellite).

As Aleman also alludes to -    it may be simply the exceeding of the 15% ice pixels being crossed from just below over a wide area - or even snowfall.

Anyway the season has def started with an unusual leap.

   

 

MIA

 

 

[RJBingham]

snowin up  Lapland way

 

[Dorsetbred]

2 hours ago, RJBingham said:

snowin up  Lapland way

 

Always a good sign.

[carinthian]

20-30cm of fresh lovely snow this morning in Swedens northern most city, Kiruna. Really early snowfall, even for Lapland. Things to come ? Currently freezing hard in Svarbard.

C

[Dorsetbred]

5 hours ago, carinthian said:

20-30cm of fresh lovely snow this morning in Swedens northern most city, Kiruna. Really early snowfall, even for Lapland. Things to come ? Currently freezing hard in Svarbard.

C

Always good in times of CC to see that true winter has not been forgotten (yet).

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Stacking up 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Plus interesting to see the snowfall in N Scandinavia showing up. Very early for there however.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

45 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Plus interesting to see the snowfall in N Scandinavia showing up. Very early for there however.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Snow falling now in Siberia and Alaska

Today -

  

 

Last Tuesday -

  

 

MIA

[Mike Poole]

Always a pleasure to read this thread as Autumn gets underway.

These days, as far as snow is concerned, the anticipation is better than the not getting it!

[Markus03]

The snow sure came to Lapland early. However since it's still quite early, it's all gone now. And it won't be back for at least the next 2 weeks thanks to the warm air straight from the Atlantic.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Slow and steady she goes.....

 

[carinthian]

11 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Slow and steady she goes.....

 

Should see a increase cover soon across British Columbian mountain ranges  and Northern Territory  this week as a big Pacific Low hits BC today and heralds a unsettled spell generally across much of the Northwest CAN/US as the jet powers up along the polar front.

[Aleman]

Take a look at this sea temperature map and note the edge of the coldest central white area is -3C. So there are another 3 bands before you get to 0C. This means snow falling on these areas will not necessarily melt and if it does, fresh water is densest at 4C so it won't sink, and even if it warmed to 4C, it is still less dense than seawater so fresh water might sit on brine if calm.  That means snow is resistant to melting and mixing in the first three bands from the white area unless local wind or transmitted waves churn it up. If you get snow with low levels of wind, it will build up a slush on the sea surface, and possibly lead to a flash freeze when the winds of a depression move away to reveal a colder, calm high pressure. So the three bands from white are ready for a flash freeze as lows move away this time of year if there are no waves transmitted from distance. This is perhaps what happened in the East Siberian Sea recently.

  Without snow forming such a slush, colder calmer weather in a high pressure can form grease ice/frasil at the surface  where brine starts to freeze and newly forming ice "squeezes" the salt out to form fresh water crystals (or at least fresher as a bit of salt stays trapped). This freeze without snow takes rather lower temperatures to overcome the saltiness. Sometimes this might remelt in a subsequent warm spell but the fresh water is less dense for lack of salt and probably still colder above the brine so might well still sit on top if it remains calm, ready for a flash freeze again if it turns colder.

  That's two different mechanism for flash freezes.  There are simple principles at play but they can interact in quite complicated ways with other factors. I'm no expert but have read a little about it and just thought I'd describe a few points as we look out for flash freezes - or indeed any freezing. There's quite a lot of sub-zero sea towards Siberia and Alaska that has only just melted out and had lots of snow on it from the recent lows. I suspect plenty of potential for a quick refreeze, though it depends how much brine got churned up to the surface.

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

Over a week since my last update, mainly because of a multitude of things which seem to be peaking at the moment. (double glazing, new car, illness ,etc) which seem to be taking all my time.......

Anyway here goes

Snow is increasing slowly over the northern landmasses and the Arctic itself is receiving plentyful snowfall currently from quite a deep low over the East Siberian sea.

   

This low is however preventing a rapid sea ice increase in the area due to the winds and wave motions in the area.

Temperatures over the Arctic have been falling slowly over the latest 3 weeks. as shown in the DMI chart. 

However they have  now reached what I believe is the critical figure for rapid ice expansion  of -5C.

The outlook is for the low to fill in over the next3 - 6days,  and the central Arctic  to then become increasingly dominated by a slack area of low pressure and then to be dominated by a powerful anticyclone. (GFS)  -  If this happens we could see a rapid refreeze set in during October..  

              

So sea ice has been slow to develop, but we could well see a more rapid change over the next 10 days, depending upon weather conditions.

An interesting start to the freeze season with the ASIF charts showing the switch to refreeze over the last week,

         

 

MIA

Edited September 27, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Big increase in Siberian pixels today

[Midlands Ice Age]

9 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Big increase in Siberian pixels today

As the temperatures in the Arctic fall more quickly....

However the sea ice remains static for now due to the East Siberian depression.  (as predicted)  

MIA

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

More snow along the Siberian coastline with it spreading more south into  Central Siberian areas.

       

More Snow now expected this week as the temperatures fall.

Snowfall is now expected quite widely in NE Canada in the next few days.

No real update on sea ice extent as Masie stopped reporting on Thursday (as also the DMI temperature updater based on ECM data).

Jaxa however has reported larger increases of 39K and yesterday of 60K to really start the season moving forward.

     (60K not shown in this chart)

As expected, a slightly below average start to the season after the warm August in the Arctic.

DMI (when it was reporting) showed recent rapid temperature drops - lets see whether this continues.

It actually repeats the last few years with a rapid temperature fall as the ice sheet increases.

   

MIA

Edited October 1, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Following on from the last 4 years temperature charts I now present charts from earlier on in the 2010's and also one from the 2000's.

                       (just examples)

One can see that as the ice was increased in previous years the temperature starts to fall earlier.

I suspect that the delayed temperature fall is associated with the latent heat of the open surface water (more molecular movement in water) means it is taking longer to cool the water down sufficient to freeze the sea water (occurs at -2.3C).  This is not necessary if it is already covered with ice.

I think that currently the delay of temperature drop is about 1 - 2 weeks... 

 it will be interesting to see what happens in future years.

 

MIA

Edited October 1, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age
Correction

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Chart for October 1st >>

 

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Chart for October 1st >>

 

Filling in nicely over north eastern Siberia. 

[Aleman]

Is this a glitch or have huge swathes of Kara and Laptev suddenly started freezing? I'm guessing a glitch because the temperature map does not seem to back it up but there does look to have been a lot of snow dropped in that area of late.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 03/10/2023 at 14:10, Aleman said:

Is this a glitch or have huge swathes of Kara and Laptev suddenly started freezing? I'm guessing a glitch because the temperature map does not seem to back it up but there does look to have been a lot of snow dropped in that area of late.

 

Aleman and all...

Just checked the snow and ice charts for today.

       

Snow has indeed fallen quite widely over Siberia and Alaska and is now spreading to more Northern Canada.

As to whether it has fallen (and settled) more widely in the oceans of Laptev and  Chukchi and Kara is more difficult to judge. The chart above actually shows snow and ice so it is quite difficult to ascertain the difference.

However, during the last 3 days (as forecast) the depression over the area has deepened and did have a lot of snow forecast for the oceans, although it is now filling.

Regarding the sea ice Jaxa has reported above average sea ice extent gains of around 70 Km2 for the last 3 days despite the presence of the deep low.

My expectation last week was that as this low fills we will see fairly widespread freezing. I see no reason to change my opinion now.

DMI (arctic temps) are still out of action, so it is difficult to judge what is happening to the temperatures over the ice.

However Masie sea ice extent  has returned with a leap of 260Km2 after a few days of wandering so this may well answer our queries in the next few days (assuming it stays stable).

          

The Arctic now looks primed for a rapid increase in sea ice extent.

The  current low pressure over the CAA and Chukchi now looks like being pushed into the North Russian coastline and to be replaced by higher pressure over the next 10 days.  This will allow widespread freezing of the ice as the temps rapidly fall...    -    See the below -30C min temps expanding out from Greenland into the main Arctic ocean.

         

MIA

Edited October 4, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Metwatch]

Last 30 days animation, some nice increases recently.

 

Looks like elevated regions of southern Scandinavia above 1000-1200m seeing new coverings, above 500m further north, and perhaps western Russia as well next week.

Forecast for Moscow shows sleet on some nights next week. Winter is fast approaching.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Metwatch