Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[Midlands Ice Age]

Some evidence from Masie that indeed the sea is freezing - 

   

Screenshot showing ice forming around the small islands in the Kara Sea. (Masie)

MIA

[Dorsetbred]

50 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Some evidence from Masie that indeed the sea is freezing - 

   

Screenshot showing ice forming around the small islands in the Kara Sea. (Masie)

MIA

I like your quick bookmark selection.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

That's a huge increase for Siberia in less than a week >>

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Big increase in Kara (esp), ESS, Beaufort, etc sea ice extent (as discussed yesterday), today.  

Shown by these 2 charts. Today then previous day.

                                      

Be back when Masie updates later. It looks as if Kara is in for a very early refreeze. 

Also Jaxa has finally updated today for the last 10 days.

MIA

Edited October 16, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

The Canadian Sea Ice Service is now showing lots of new ice (pink that appeared since yesterday) amongst the Canadian Archipelago. It seems to be in the places climatereanalyser has been picking it up for a few days already - reinforced by temperature maps. So, again, does climatereanalyser pick up the floating slushy snow and others don't until it hardens off? It often feels like it (based on previous years' observations, as well as this year). This ice chart confirms closure of the Northwest Passage to non-ice class vessels after a pretty solid 6 weeks open this year, though most would not risk it in -5C or lower, ,limited daylight, and heavy snow in slushy water turning to treacle, anyway.  (Righthand top and side is NW Greenland above Baffin Bay for those unfamiliar.)

Edited October 16, 2023 by Aleman

[Aleman]

Wow. Been following the Northwest Passage sailing attempts for about 15 years and not seen a section freeze up like that in 24 hours before. It just shows how dangerous it is. Once you are frozen in, the polar bears can get you.

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

A fourth  century break reported by Masie for sea ice extent in the last 5 days....

This time of year is traditionally the time when ice extent grows the quickest.

This year is no exception. 

Also  the renewed output from Jaxa (c/o the ASIF) shows the increased sea ice freeze developing -

  

Recent increases of 118K Km2, 124k Km2, 138K KM2, 68K Km2 and today 132K Km2 on Masie have corroborated the trend.  

Todays increases were mainly in the ESS (+82K) where a connection of the  pack to Wrangel Island is imminent, and is also as reported above by Aleman  into the CAA (+22K). 

Rate of Increase is similar to the last 2 years, although from a lower base.

That actually is quite positive as there are more larger areas still left to quickly freeze in Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS and Laptev over the next 2 weeks.

 

Snow continues to slowly pack into Siberia, and the latest charts show it to be moving down into the Kamchatka Peninsular, and also from the N American  side into the Aleutian Islands. This outbreak of cold  caused by a depression moving slowly across the Bering Ocean into North America leaving Northerly winds in its wake..

And  .... Snow is actually still developing in Scandinavia.

 

          

 

  

MIA

Edited October 17, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Snow extending to the Urals, Scandinavia and there's even a pixel on the Grampians

[Stravaiger]

Quite remarkable lack of snow for the time of year in Canada, as this anomaly chart from Rutgers University shows.

It will all change in the next week, as polar air sweeps southeastwards on Monday and Tuesday but notable to see at the current time.

Likely to see some colder air getting into Western Siberia in the next week too, helping to boost snow cover across that swathe of Russia and bring Eurasia up closer to average levels for the time of year.

[Aleman]

Similar can be seen here:

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

9 hours ago, Stravaiger said:

Quite remarkable lack of snow for the time of year in Canada, as this anomaly chart from Rutgers University shows.

It will all change in the next week, as polar air sweeps southeastwards on Monday and Tuesday but notable to see at the current time.

Likely to see some colder air getting into Western Siberia in the next week too, helping to boost snow cover across that swathe of Russia and bring Eurasia up closer to average levels for the time of year.

Thanks Stravaiger...

I was going to put together a review of the weather outlook for the next 10 days, but yours is a good synopsis  and starting point (and more succinct than mine!!) 

Before I start on snow fall however, I'll give the good news on sea ice extent  -

Maise increased by a further 93K Km2 overnight, whilst Jaxa has recorded  a double century increase of 234K Km2 to continue its more  improved figures more recently .

            

Jaxa has now moved to an above average increased refreeze amount of 5.6% more than the last 10 years.

Sea Ice extent on average seems to be increasing at the similar rates as the last 2 years now, despite a sluggish start.

 

As to snowfall, despite my optimistic remarks of 2 weeks ago the spread of snow to Central and Eastern Canada, and to Central Northern Russia has not happened.   The cold air in Alaska and Scandy has not moved Eastwards. This has happened because of a stasis in movement of the weather systems worldwide (possibly due to the Easterly QBO , which is still reluctant to clear).

 

As to the outlook..... it looks to me to be  the same net result as predicted two weeks ago, but at a lower temperature level, and by a different mechanism..

A couple of general points first.

1) By use of C.Reanalyser.  (GFS), it was almost spot on for the Arctic 10 days ago, (predicting change to an anticyclonic conditions) when under a cyclone at the time...  (will it be correct for the Arctic again?).

2) still no detailed temperature released from DMI, so having to use the known more inexact GFS figures....

 

Today we have the anticyclone and cold central Arctic conditions, but warmer fringes in Central Canada and Russia ....

                                        

Moving forward to 5 days time we see the filling of the anticyclone starting and the cooler air in both Alaska and Scandinavia beginning to be pushed eastwards and southwards by the developing low pressure systems -

 

       

Precipitation is shown to increase in Central Canada and to move into Central Russia. - By this time the colder air has taken over. 

 

Looking forward to 10 days time and the switch to shallow low pressure areas is more or less complete over the Arctic -

                 

The above temp anomaly map is almost the opposite of that at day one!!!!!!!!

Although the temperature anomaly is raised for the central areas of the Arctic, cold is now being dispersed to lower latitudes, and the central areas are now cold enough to continue the freeze.  

Shallow low pressures are normally very good for the Arctic at this time of the year, and it just happens that below anomaly temperature expectations are forecast for both of the areas (Central Canada and Central Russia) with no snow!!!

Snowfall at this stage is expected quite widely across the Arctic, and minimums are also very supportive of snow depth - 

        

All in all an interesting outlook for the Arctic under the developing stratospheric Polar Vortex. However it (the TPV) Is still not showing any desire to appear or impact the troposphere or the weather, (either here or in the Arctic!).

As an aside I would like to see the areas east of the Hudson Bay, show snow fall. -  then we will be really on track for a good season.

MIA

Edited October 18, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Redbull165]

Interesting.

 

[Daniel*]

Relevant  

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

A very good day today coming up.....

Sea ice extends its reach towards Siberia in a huge leap. Snow extents eastwards in N America.

Already Jaxa has recorded a near triple century increase after two consecutive double centuries. Thats 750K Km2 in 2 days. Probably a record.

Back later with details 

https://usicecenter.gov/current/ims20231019euasia-7ani.gif

MIA

 

 

[Aleman]

Snow forecasts have not delivered as well as one might hope recently but this run to month-end in North America looks promising.

 

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

******* Following yesterdays figures an exceptional event reported today by NSIDC .   **********

Laptev and the ESS virtually flash freeze cover in just 24 hrs.                   Kara also faster than the last 5 years up to now.

I'll report back with the exact numbers when issued this pm.

         

To add to the good news JAXA just reported that 2023 freeze now greater than 2022, after another near double century (+179k km2) increase. .

Now  we await the snow cover large increases in Canada and Russia expected early next week. 

MIA

Edited October 21, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Shaunado]

Closer to home...

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

A brief update at half time in the England game,,,

As discussed above both Laptev and ESS exceeded 100k KM2, The first time I can remember this happening.

In addition Kara is making good gains with a gain of 30K Km2.

Still a lot of water to freeze up yet!

MIA.   

[danthetan]

@Midlands Ice Age do you think the late melting of the ice in august,  has aided the quick refreeze were seeing? As the open water was primed for re-freeze as temperatures dropped. Interested to hear your thoughts 

[Midlands Ice Age]

11 hours ago, danthetan said:

@Midlands Ice Age do you think the late melting of the ice in august,  has aided the quick refreeze were seeing? As the open water was primed for re-freeze as temperatures dropped. Interested to hear your thoughts 

Dan???

Your post is an interesting one which I have been thinking about a lot more recently.

It will not be a quick reply....  so I thought I would break it down into 2 or 3 different posts...      later today possibly

It will be based upon my own observations over the last 10 years of active watching, and being a 'viewer' further forward than that, via the ASIF, from where a lot of my ideas come from.   (but not all by any means).

 

 

Anyway for anyone not that interested in the Arctic ice environment   - today's brief general report -

Snow has finally arrived across the whole of the Arctic Canadian Territories.   This is the start of first major Arctic plunge expected to engulf much of N.A. - including the United States (as well),   during this week.  Russia not seeing a lot of change today.

Ice extent has increased steadily throughout the Arctic. (with the possible surprising exception of Laptev - which was about steady, after its huge gains of yesterday).

Today and yesterday..

           

 

CR (with its snow and ice map) seems to indicate that Chukchi and Beaufort will be next to freeze over, with its apparent 'low ice/snow signal. (Aleman's suggestion)

   

All for now..

MIA

 

 

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

MIA' s theory  -  (for what its worth).

The question of the sea ice growth and thaw is proving to be more complex than just  straight linear,  ie  just driven by temperature.

Sea ice seems to have stopped its 30 year decline is a subject being discussed quite widely on the ASIF. 

A few more people are now suggesting some form of a stasis is (maybe) taking place. 

Sea ice demise is clearly related to the temperature, but whereas originally only positive feedbacks were used in calculations, which then lead to rapid removal of the sea ice, it is clear that it is more complex..

Originally forecasts (around 2010) predicted a BOE (Blue Ocean Event  - defined as less than 1 million km2 of sea ice extent being reached in summer in the Arctic) was expected to occur by most within 10 years. (by 90% of correspondents on the ASIF expected a BOE by 2020, and also many published polls and annual forecasts by the weather services, etc, eg).

This has not occured, and maybe wont occur for a little while longer yet..

Sea ice extent has not fallen to new lows  for about 10 years now, and the ice early growth seems to be still strong enough to cancel out large late decreases.

Factors not originally taken into account are the much colder (than expected) temperatures in summer caused by fog and cloud when the ice melts.

Certain weather conditions appear to allow the ice to form (or melt) -

1) An Arctic centred Anticyclone. This, in the main from Oct to April, with no sun and clear skies allow the temperature to fall over the ice fields. (No winds from the warmer continents), and is good for ice growth. An anticyclone is however bad for ice in the peak insolation period from June to August.

2) Slack areas of low pressure over the Arctic ice sheets (Ie not bringing in winds from the continents)  also appear to be good for ice. Possibly aided by precipitation cooling the ocean surface. 

3) Vigorous low pressures seem to pull in warmer air from the sides and can lead to rapid ice loss with higher temperatures, and  with wave and wind motions.

4) However a centrally located strong polar vortex seems to let the temperature fall more rapidly and is good for ice retention. 

The above I have identified myself from observation.

Other related conditions which can affect the Arctic ice sheets are the Ocean currents and the salinity of the water. Lower salinity will allow ice to form at a higher temperature, than fully salted sea water. (Difference of 0 to -2.8C)

Other general weather related items such as Nino and Nina,    and particularly Sudden Stratospheric Warmings  have undefined effects in the arctic -  as not enough data for me yet.

So how has that shown up in the Arctic?

Well prior to roughly 2010 the ice was melting quickly. Possibly affected by temperature.

Since then we went through a series of years of extreme variability of the ice. Say up to 2020.

After 2020, we have seen a lack of a strong Polar Vortex and more and longer periods of Anticyclonic and 'slack' low pressure conditions.

This seems to have stopped the rapid ice loss (maybe temporarily), as the last 3 years have averaged around the 2010' s average ice figures.   

Several of my above listed items may well have caused negative effects and influences,   and some quite positive.

As to the question asked whether the August melt has allowed the ice to freeze more rapidly....

'Could be'  is my answer. Certainly the ice will have a lower salinity, so a positive there. But I think the weather conditions  have  played a big part, with mainly anticyclones ruling, and  in the main centred slap bang in the middle of the Arctic,  over the pole.  Ideal for pulling in air from off the rapidly cooling Greenland plateau. out into the polar regions....  and  whenever we had depressions these were centred in such a way as to pull in the colder air from over Siberia.

That is why recently,   I have been quite positive compared to many this season so far ,  despite the apparently 'warm' anomalies over the Arctic, used by many as their guidelines for forecasting., -  particularly those on the ASIF.

Have the conditions of the last month been lucky? We will have to wait and see.!!!

Hope this helps? It is proving to be a complex issue.

MIA

Edited October 22, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Don]

On 21/10/2023 at 15:10, Shaunado said:

Closer to home...

 

 

I imagine that's more snow than I will see during the entire winter, or whatever it is these days?!

[Midlands Ice Age]

A bit more info on today's ice extent figures..

Laptev fell slightly (-9K) , perhaps 'overdone' yesterday (+129K).

ESS gains another 30K.

Elsewhere the most significant was a large 10K KM2 gain in Hudson Bay.. see screenshot below.            

         (Zoom in)

MIA

 

 

   

[Turnedoutniceagain]

That's Eastern Siberia now virtually covered. Big build ups in Scandinavia/Lapland too

[Midlands Ice Age]

Decided to continue on from the first part of my tome above  (as I suggested would be required)..

The post above was directed towards the question of what has happened in the short-term.....

My reply was centred around the weather issues of the last 2 months as that is what I consider being the most crucial.

 

 

I did not however go into more detail on the more medium and long term influences such as Nino, NIna,  Ocean currents, and  long term temperature change, SSW's,  etc.,     ..... which I just mentioned.

They obviously need to be taken into account when dealing with the Arctic medium and longer term state.

Without going into any detail on CO2 warming, I will deal with some of the points that must be considered.

Longer term warming is clearly taking place, and I will discuss that in the the third of these data based epistles.  .

 

Firstly one of the question is  that of the other causes of the events over the last few years is clearly;    has there been any impact from the recent 3 year long La Nina?.

It clearly impacts the Pacific but has that a sufficient fingerprint to impact the Arctic, via the ocean currents perhaps? I suspect that the answer is in the main no, but possibly indirectly?

The last 2-3 seasons have seen the arctic ice recover very quickly in early autumn. Is this just chance or could there be a connection? 3 Years in a row is a high correlation, 

It is possible that this connection could be thru' the lack of any signs of a tropospheric vortex in the last 3 years, (during early and late autumn). This seems to have enabled high pressure to become more dominant during these times.  Hence more early ice formation. (*  -  see below for some detail)

Notice I have not proposed any mechanism, I am just reporting the observation.

**  ASIF have been reporting increased levels of ice formation early in the Autumn. (with thanks..)

Quote 

.JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,015,114 KM2 as at 22-Oct-2023

- Extent gain on this day 86k which is 34 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 120k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,879 k, which is 370 k, 14.7% more than the 10 year average of 2,510 k.

End

So for 2023 ice growth has been rapid. 

This is also true for the previous 2 years, with an adjustment of about 2 weeks for the dates, with similar 15% increases.. 

 

El  Nino's (now just building) may well be associated with more depressions in the Arctic, possibly by causing more of a temperature differential between the equator and the arctic at higher levels. They were predominant when the ice levels were falling in the mid 2010's.

Conversely could it be flat temperatures during La Nina which show the current impacts??... 

 

 

Next to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW's) affecting the Arctic. 

During the last 3 years they have not happened at all really (?). Could this be because they need a deep vortex to get the maximum effect.? 

The last big one that I remember was in winter 2017 -18 (from memory), when one  occured in Laptev and Kara in late February and we had the major impacts in March... 

It had little impact on ice extent, but increases in  the ice thickness in the area were large, (under the clear skies and downdraughts of cold air over the area.. ), and this saw quite a large volume impact. So SSW's could well be positive for the ice, based upon this instance.. 

Next to Ocean Currents. in the main the Arctic is sheltered from these except for the Jet Stream into and thru Barents, and the Pacific via the Bering gap. There are reports that the N A Jet Stream is weakening,  but affects so far have not really changed the distribution of the ice. A couple of years recently have seen the ice reach the Bear Isle which is half way between Norway and Svalbard, although it is now a few years since the Baltic had a decent freeze up.  - The SSW of 2018(?), possibly the last time.

A further climate determinant is that from Volcanic Eruptions.

I feel it worthwhile that a further note be devoted to this subject, as  a lot of new scientific papers are being issued at the moment in view of the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption, and its impacts..

I will then look into more longer term impacts of the climate on the Arctic..

MIA 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age