Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[Midlands Ice Age]

Not done an update for 3 or 4 days...

Mainly because the  sea ice has been so variable  (on the whole negative) , and the snow is only slowly moving into Europe. I have also been busy looking after young Grandkids all weekend. NIce,  but not good  at 80 years old. 

However I believe 'things they are a changing'.  (especially written here for me and Meth and some ol'timers).... 

Very apt really (see below) -

Firstly,  NH snow situation -

Today                  Friday   

A slow steady haphazard movement westwards into Europe, rather than a dramatic blizzard - probably best describes it.   We could see the blizzard  happen to Europe later this week as the low drives into central European areas . I can also see a few pixels into Scottish Highlands today. However on the US side - no real changes.

Meanwhile sea ice has stagnated for 4 or 5 days now -  

and is no longer in the top 2 positions.

Losses of -56K, +43k, +58k, and yesterday -12K have left the extent unchanged, and slipping down the league table to 5 -7th lowest in the last 18 years according to Jaxa - (ASIF).

                  

not by any means disastrous, but after 6 days with little change it doesn't look as strong.  

So  why might this have happened.? My thoughts are  that 3 things have impacted this.

1) the central Arctic basin is now just about full, and the chart above shows that normally in early December the ice extents seem to merge somewhat, before outer areas are cold enough to freeze 

2) We have had a very rapid refreeze this year and most of the 'available; ocean is now frozen.

3) In the last 5 days the weather over the Polar regions has changed, What were easterlies have become westerlies, This has stopped the ice progress in the Barents, but it is still to  affect the Bering Sea because it was blocked by the Aleutian low pressure. The outer areas are also 'in limbo'.

      

The most striking of the events this year has been the cold pool developing in Scandinavia. This has not shown in the Baltic sea ice graphs yet, but it is probable that ice increase will occur this week. 

Also, the early Scandy cold  has not been seen for a decade or two really,   Apart from 2010 - but that was remarkable in its cause.  It used to occur fairly regularly back in 'my day'. Lets hope that it is omen for this winter in the UK, as easterly winds in the UK always (or so it seemed) brought snowfall.

All for now 

MIA

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Stravaiger]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Not done an update for 3 or 4 days...

Mainly because the  sea ice has been so variable  (on the whole negative) , and the snow is only slowly moving into Europe. I have also been busy looking after young Grandkids all weekend. NIce,  but not good  at 80 years old. 

However I believe 'things they are a changing'.  (especially written here for me and Meth and some ol'timers).... 

Very apt really (see below) -

Firstly,  NH snow situation -

Today                  Friday   

A slow steady haphazard movement westwards into Europe, rather than a dramatic blizzard - probably best describes it.   We could see the blizzard  happen to Europe later this week as the low drives into central European areas . I can also see a few pixels into Scottish Highlands today. However on the US side - no real changes.

Meanwhile sea ice has stagnated for 4 or 5 days now -  

and is no longer in the top 2 positions.

Losses of -56K, +43k, +58k, and yesterday -12K have left the extent unchanged, and slipping down the league table to 5 -7th lowest in the last 18 years according to Jaxa - (ASIF).

                  

not by any means disastrous, but after 6 days with little change it doesn't look as strong.  

So  why might this have happened.? My thoughts are  that 3 things have impacted this.

1) the central Arctic basin is now just about full, and the chart above shows that normally in early December the ice extents seem to merge somewhat, before outer areas are cold enough to freeze 

2) We have had a very rapid refreeze this year and most of the 'available; ocean is now frozen.

3) In the last 5 days the weather over the Polar regions has changed, What were easterlies have become westerlies, This has stopped the ice progress in the Barents, but it is still to  affect the Bering Sea because it was blocked by the Aleutian low pressure. The outer areas are also 'in limbo'.

      

The most striking of the events this year has been the cold pool developing in Scandinavia. This has not shown in the Baltic sea ice graphs yet, but it is probable that ice increase will occur this week. 

Also, the early Scandy cold  has not been seen for a decade or two really,   Apart from 2010 - but that was remarkable in its cause.  It used to occur fairly regularly back in 'my day'. Lets hope that it is omen for this winter in the UK, as easterly winds in the UK always (or so it seemed) brought snowfall.

All for now 

MIA

 

Yeah the Scandi cold is really noteworthy this year...started early and has been sustained for a long time now. Very old school, as you say MIA !

Temps currently below -30C in parts of Lapland and that cold air will be sucking heat out of the Gulf of Bothnia incredibly fast, leading to further expansion of sea ice in the northern and coastal parts of the Baltic.

If the pressure anomalies persist and keep pressure low in Central Europe this cold spell could go on for a while yet. I think an eQBO is partly responsible for this set-up but doubtless there are other factors...

In any case, been a good long while since I've seen a November chart that is so devoid of of warm air at 850hPa on both sides of the Atlantic. Great for the alpine ski resorts - long may it continue!

 

[Aleman]

I'm curious why Baltic Sea ice is not being picked up on some models. It started early and, though not progressing rapidly since, remains higher than average. Similarly, some sea ice did not seem to get picked up from the early start to freezing in Hudson Bay, though that's done nothing for weeks so is now behind normal.  (See interactive graphs at bottom.)  The cold in the Baltic and Hudson Bay recovering to normal might help figures over the next week.

Ice conditions - Finnish Meteorological Institute

EN.ILMATIETEENLAITOS.FI

---

Today´s ice conditions in the Baltic Sea. The Baltic Sea ice chart as pdf and simplified charts. Ice report and an ice extent graph. 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks Aleman for the above...

My link for Baltic  Sea ice says that they are having technical difficulties and that they will sort it asap!!!! 

So I looked around a bit and found this page 

http://baltice.org/wms?SERVICE=WMS&REQUEST=GetMap&FORMAT=image/png&TRANSPARENT=TRUE&STYLES=&VERSION=1.3.0&LAYERS=fmi:ice:icechart_iceareas&WIDTH=3712&HEIGHT=1515&CRS=EPSG:3857&BBOX=152248.9715395704,8502645.397185039,4691996.955451551,10355478.962817218

Unfortunately  it will not allow me to copy in here. (as its not https)..

Can you see it by linking to it.?

It shows accurate ice depths and I think is the one that I used to use, but the old one was a pdf and more easy to view.

You have saved my posting the details, and  that I was checking out.

It is a bit strange, as you say, that the very cold weather has made little difference to some evaluations of the sea ice.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

15 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks Aleman for the above...

My link for Baltic  Sea ice says that they are having technical difficulties and that they will sort it asap!!!! 

So I looked around a bit and found this page 

http://baltice.org/wms?SERVICE=WMS&REQUEST=GetMap&FORMAT=image/png&TRANSPARENT=TRUE&STYLES=&VERSION=1.3.0&LAYERS=fmi:ice:icechart_iceareas&WIDTH=3712&HEIGHT=1515&CRS=EPSG:3857&BBOX=152248.9715395704,8502645.397185039,4691996.955451551,10355478.962817218

Unfortunately  it will not allow me to copy in here. (as its not https)..

Can you see it by linking to it.?

It shows accurate ice depths and I think is the one that I used to use, but the old one was a pdf and more easy to view.

You have saved my posting the details, and  that I was checking out.

It is a bit strange, as you say, that the very cold weather has made little difference to some evaluations of the sea ice.

MIA

Forget the above  post..

-   There is a link embeded in your post to the pdf I used last year.  Thanks

MIA

Edited November 27, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Following Aleman's post,  ............   suddenly the Baltic bursts into life -

with 10fold increase in one day.  

https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf        

 

More generally there was a big move on the NSIDC snow charts towards Europe

Today the ice lurches forward after 5 days of stagnation with a gain of 224k Km2....whilst the temperature increases slightly.

           

MIA

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Snow takes out Germany in one day!

            

MIA

[Stravaiger]

How about this for a November snow extent? We've come a long way since September.

Best start to the European winter I've seen for a long time...the question is, will it last?

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 days since my last update report......   so time for another which must include a discussion on the Arctic Atmospheric profile.

Firstly the snow has now moved into Europe. Will it get into the UK?, Possibly not on a UK wide scale.

           

Sea ice has continued to meander along on an even but very slow trend. 

This has happened due to the atmospheric weather conditions over the current most important  sea areas. These are Barents, Bering and the Baffin Oceans.  Each has its own almost unique reasons (in the last 20 years) for the slowdown,   

Barents has been hit by SW winds for the last 8 days, after a very large early ice refreeze with the winds  from the NE.   

Bering has remained blocked due to a depression, and this has stopped any cold escaping from  the Chukchi into the Bering Ocean.. 

Baffin started slowly (after a warm N. American continent  delayed the onset of a proper freeze). This then changed, but more recently WAA has been  consistently blowing straight up from the South into the ocean and this has stopped any ice growth. Wind gusts of 100mph |SSE's have been recorded in the last 2 days off the tip of Greenland eg.

Hudson has suffered from the same atmospheric situation,

Which brings me onto the weather situation in the Arctic.

Currently it is very strange. I show the SLP charts for today (from GFS remember) and 10 days time  -

    

These show current extensive easterlies in  central and eastern Arctic, and also in the western Arctic perimeters (Atlantic.!!) around the current massive high over the central Arctic   (Basically the CAB and Barents), then it recurves back into the Baffin Ocean to re-enforce the high.

Move on 10 days and the whole Arctic is under slack conditions with generally high pressure still dominating. This is very obvious over the Aleutians Islands, and which will help to draw the colder air wrapped up in the Arctic out into the Bering Ocean. 

But perhaps the most obvious anomaly is that in the North Atlantic. I will say no more as I do not know what it means, except that it does not look a very stable situation.

Temperatures are still around average with the cold average anomaly in Eastern and Northern Europe and Central Asia dominating.

          

But look at the 10 day anomaly chart. It shows large areas of Russia with 25C cold anomalies, and a huge area of freezing conditions extending its influence towards Europe from the Pacific .  This is despite the GFS forecast for the UK looking milder over the next week,

These are not normal Arctic atmospheric  conditions for this time of the year, with no sign of a tropospheric vortex..

I am at a loss for what this all means for the sea ice. 

So I'll finish there and await developments.

MIA

Edited December 1, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Today update for snow and ice shows snow in Scotland and NE England -

yesterday     Today     

Back later with review of November ice and latest details.

MIA

Edited December 2, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Before I give a review for November, I thought it worthwhile updating with the first 3 days of December.

Firstly as already shown the snow moved quickly into Europe, and has continued its westwards extension into France now, in addition snow has also moved back to the north west of the USA , and also is moving southwards into Central Asia, removing some of the discrepancy deficits there. (See Rutgers anomaly)

         

     

We should see snow more widely in the UK on tomorrows charts following on from the overnight falls in central and northern England..

 

Following 7 days of stasis, the sea ice extent ( by Masie),  has again burst into life over the last 3 days with gains of (+36K Km2), (+156K Km2), and today according to the graphics above,  sea ice is expending rapidly in all sea areas. So later on today will see a further large increase.

A few Masie screenshots for you -

  

But of particular note is what has happened in the Greenland Ocean, where in addition to heading back into Svalbard (wind change again), the  ice suddenly appears to be making for Iceland  -

 

                

The Iceland situation looks like a heavy snowfall effect (as Aleman's proposals), as the ice can also now be seen in the fjords of Iceland..

In addition my rule of thumb is that ice will rapidly increase in the SOO now that ice  is forming out in the ocean -

Back later with the November review -

MIA

Edited December 3, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

So after I spent a happy evening out dining at the NEC with grandkids. I have half an hour to produce the November review.

First of all at the end of the month, we can see that a big reduction in sea ice occurred in the middle to backend period. 

I will use the ASIF charts and Jaxa data  (with thanks) -

       

The change of ice production, as was discussed on here, was an atmospheric weather related effect,  rather than a  temperature one.

 although the last 4 days has seen a temperature increase.

However, the above increase and the weather change, has only slightly reduced the trend graphs and overall the trends remained positive, compared to history  -  

         

Where we see the last 3 years of La Nina showing above the trend lines. 

La Nina is now dead, and a few months ago we entered El Nino territory. It will be interesting to see if this has any effect on the Arctic sea ice.. Any direct impact will take a few months to be transferred up there

 

The latest position looks as though the situation is rapidly recovering, though it is only 4 days                

All for now, I suspect the the Masiie actuals may well warrant a further update later, when the numbers are out.

MIA

Edited December 3, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

As I suggested earlier today worth a third posting  -

***** TRIPLE CENTURY INCREASE IN DECEMBER   ********

Masie ai I suggested earlier has come up with an amazing triple century (+328K Km2) increase today.

This comes at the end of a rollercoaster ride over the last 2 weeks  -

Gains were general with Hudson Bay standing out with a (+123K Km2) increase as the winds from the SE died away.

     

Barents (+53K) and Greenland (+53K)  both made up for the recent wind blown retreat of the ice. As  mentioned earlier Greenland increased towards Iceland.

  

Chukchi and Kara were consolidating  (+10K) and (+11K) mode.

Bering finally prospered as the wind moved into the north (+28K) , and Baltic (+8K)  finally succumbed to the cold Scandinavia.

All in all a good day for the Arctic sea ice.  

MIA

[Aleman]

Ice is about 6 weeks ahead of the 2007-2021 average in the Baltic Sea - @33k/km2. Temperatures in the central Swedish mountains look to have dropped even lower so that suggests it might continue? I dread to think how cold we will get in the UK if we get another northeasterly wind before Eastern Europe and Russia warm up.

Ice conditions - Finnish Meteorological Institute

EN.ILMATIETEENLAITOS.FI

---

Today´s ice conditions in the Baltic Sea. The Baltic Sea ice chart as pdf and simplified charts. Ice report and an ice extent graph. 

At 265m in the more central mountains, Kattisavan is at -28.2C and falling currently (try pasting below into browser). Previous figs reaching -30C have been further north bordering Finland and Norway:

blob:null/02d38206-3de1-47c8-9095-6553ea70979c

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Aleman

[johncam]

Arctic and sadly Barents a lot warmer than normal and looking to stay that way , also Scandi warming up a bit as well. 

[johncam]

Currently lower than 2012

[Aleman]

Yep - probably because North America looks well behind. This is Hudson Bay, for instance. Started earlier than normal in October after Canada got blanketed in snow -  then did next to nothing for 4 weeks and is only now starting to get moving again.

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

37 minutes ago, johncam said:

Arctic and sadly Barents a lot warmer than normal and looking to stay that way , also Scandi warming up a bit as well. 

 

27 minutes ago, johncam said:

Currently lower than 2012

John...

Can you give a link for those remarks/graphs in your 2 posts above ?

The ones recognised by most people as being accurate  show the following - 

   and   for temps.

Still exceptionally low for Scandy.

Not seeing too much sign of a warm up in Scandy, and Barents is about average now after going through a warmer/ adverse windy spell.

As for your chart of the 'extent' ice values, do not be misled the NSCSC charts ( I really think they are) are misleading as they seem to drop any lower years at this time of year!! Looks like you have been fooled..

Below for the representative actual charts -

Area -

-     

which are the worst at the moment, but still not lowest. 

Note that  for extent and volume  things look very different - 

    

So  on what site did you find your info ?     ...

MIA

 

 

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[johncam]

8 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

John...

Can you give a link for those remarks/graphs in your 2 posts above -

The ones recognised by most people as being accurate  show the following - 

   and   for temps.

Still exceptionally low for Scandy.

Not seeing too much sign of a warm up in Scandy, and Barents is about average now after going through a warmer/ adverse windy spell.

As for your chart of the 'extent' ice values, do not be misled the NSCSC charts ( I really think they are) are misleading as they seem to drop any lower years at this time of year!! Looks like you have been fooled..

Below for the representative actual charts -

Area -

-     

Also for extent and volume  things look very different - 

    

So  on what site did you find your info ?     ...

MIA

 

 

 

Hi MIA

For the sea ice was merely pointing out that its lower than 2012 at same time which did start at lowest  min in recorded history 

[Midlands Ice Age]

8 minutes ago, johncam said:

Hi MIA

For the sea ice was merely pointing out that its lower than 2012 at same time which did start at lowest  min in recorded history 

Yep..... that is what the site you have used does to make one think it is currently lowest... (it fooled me and I suspect many others also).

2012 did have an extremely quick recovery....

MIA

Edited December 5, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[johncam]

5 minutes ago, johncam said:

Hi MIA

For the sea ice was merely pointing out that its lower than 2012 at same time which did start at lowest  min in recorded history 

Hi MIA 

Just had dinner , climate realizer anomaly charts out to 10 days  show arctic milder than average and Scandi warming up from current cold temps

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just now, johncam said:

Hi MIA 

Just had dinner , climate realizer anomaly charts out to 10 days  show arctic milder than average and Scandi warming up from current cold temps

 

10days ahead??????????!!!!!

MIA

[johncam]

7 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

10days ahead??????????!!!!!

MIA

Yep, 1-3 days 4-6 and 7-10 on the  anomaly chart

Cheers 

John  

[Aleman]

Scandy needs to warm up. It's over 20C below normal in the Swedish mountains which is part of the reason why Baltic ice is so high and the whole point of my last post. I see nothing wrong with forecasts a couple of days ahead but I really don't see the point of considering 10-day forecasts.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Aleman

[johncam]

1 hour ago, Aleman said:

Scandy needs to warm up. It's over 20C below normal in the Swedish mountains which is part of the reason why Baltic ice is so high and the whole point of my last post. I see nothing wrong with forecasts a couple of days ahead but I really don't see the point of considering 10-day forecasts.

That's all we have to go on , none of us are physic hence why we have the MOD thread etc.