Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 13/11/2023 at 02:01, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

This tweet led me to check  snow depths through sweden and quite incredible that every station has AT LEAST 50cm HALF A METRE with many registering over 60cm

 

3 weeks on following the recent Late Nov Early Dec event these Swedish snow depths have continued to gain with absolute monstrous numbers. Yep thats a genuine 110cm recorded

I believe the translations equate to 15 to 20C below average in various regions 

 

Right up there with coldest EVER recorded Dec temperatures and Record Nov temperatures 

 

[cheese]

A maximum temperature of -12C in Stockholm today. You can only imagine the chaos if we had conditions like this here.

Edited December 6, 2023 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

A maximum temperature of -12C in Stockholm today. You can only imagine the chaos if we had conditions like this here.

what chaos??...looks sunny and cold

[cheese]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

what chaos??...looks sunny and cold

That level of cold here would probably put major stress on the energy grid. Think what happened in Texas a few winters ago.

Edited December 6, 2023 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

7 minutes ago, cheese said:

That level of cold here would probably put major stress on the energy grid. Think what happened in Texas a few winters ago.

not like its never been -12c before in the UK ..Think 2010 

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

not like its never been -12c before in the UK ..Think 2010 

We’re talking about highs of -12C though. If that was widespread across the UK (rather than a few isolated frost hollows), I find it hard to believe our energy grid wouldn’t be in meltdown. Our infrastructure struggles to cope at the best of times. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by cheese

[andreas]

3 hours ago, cheese said:

A maximum temperature of -12C in Stockholm today. You can only imagine the chaos if we had conditions like this here.

Wow, lovely photo. Though I remember something similar in Cheltenham back in January 1982 - it was fine, very cold, but not chaos. Maybe the UK infrastructure was more resilient back then though.

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by andreas

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

We’re talking about highs of -12C though. If that was widespread across the UK (rather than a few isolated frost hollows), I find it hard to believe our energy grid wouldn’t be in meltdown. Our infrastructure struggles to cope at the best of times. 

gets close to -50c here sometimes in winter and average highs are no more than -10c in winter the energy grid doesn't go into meltdown here ..all comes down to being self sufficient esp in natural Gas which the UK could be if it wanted to be.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Talking of power generation and demand see my latest post in the power/energy blog for really strange happenings recently.

Back later with a snow and ice update.

MIA 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Ok,,,, here we go with an update after a very mixed 4 days.

The sea ice this year has behaved in an erratic manner in the last few weeks with several days of little or even negative change, then a large increase.

It has happened again today with a +193Km2 gain.

  

Snow meanwhile has reversed in Europe, with most of the snow in Germany now melting back.

The USA meanwhile is still way below performance over the last few years, with a large virtually snowless area in the central prairie area's, and central Canada regions.

   

Following the earlier in the week's static sea ice levels, things took a turn for the better in Chukchi (+18K),  in Kara  (+17K) and Barents (+10K), Chukchi is now all but full. The big gainers were Greenland (+49K) and Baffin (+54K).

Hudson Bay continued to stagnate in ice terms, though there is still a lot more to freeze out.

Also the Bering Sea has now started to ice out in the ocean for the first time. The Baltic gained a further (+8K).

Also of interest for sea ice is the strange fact that around the first week in December we see all the sea ice extent numbers tending to converge at around 11.5 Km2 (on Maisie). This reflects the fact that all the internal Arctic ice areas have refrozen and the remainder of the refreeze season is dominated by the outer areas. 

       

MIA

Edited December 9, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[WYorksWeather]

4 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Ok,,,, here we go with an update after a very mixed 4 days.

The sea ice this year has behaved in an erratic manner in the last few weeks with several days of little or even negative change, then a large increase.

It has happened again today with a +193Km2 gain.

  

Snow meanwhile has reversed in Europe, with most of the snow in Germany now melting back.

The USA meanwhile is still way below performance over the last few years, with a large virtually snowless area in the central prairie area's, and central Canada regions.

   

Following the earlier in the week's static sea ice levels, things took a turn for the better in Chukchi (+18K),  in Kara  (+17K) and Barents (+10K), Chukchi is now all but full. The big gainers were Greenland (+49K) and Baffin (+54K).

Hudson Bay continued to stagnate in ice terms, though there is still a lot more to freeze out.

Also the Bering Sea has now started to ice out in the ocean for the first time. The Baltic gained a further (+8K).

Also of interest for sea ice is the strange fact that around the first week in December we see all the sea ice extent numbers tending to converge at around 11.5 Km2 (on Maisie). This reflects the fact that all the internal Arctic ice areas have refrozen and the remainder of the refreeze season is dominated by the outer areas. 

       

MIA

Interesting that after the early refreeze, things do seem to have slowed down a bit, and we're now at 3rd lowest for the time of year. I'm assuming that some of this is to do with the disruption we're seeing to the polar vortex, with more cold air being shunted down to Northern Europe, and therefore not available to form sea ice in the Arctic?

I'm a beginner when it comes to sea ice, so happy to be corrected if you think there's a better explanation!

[Midlands Ice Age]

53 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Interesting that after the early refreeze, things do seem to have slowed down a bit, and we're now at 3rd lowest for the time of year. I'm assuming that some of this is to do with the disruption we're seeing to the polar vortex, with more cold air being shunted down to Northern Europe, and therefore not available to form sea ice in the Arctic?

I'm a beginner when it comes to sea ice, so happy to be corrected if you think there's a better explanation!

I think that  you are correct...

High pressure still really rules the roost up there with no signs of the polar vortex. Now that most of the internal to the basin ice has been covered, and with few colder outbreaks to lower latitudes. the ice has had little chance to  form in the outer oceans as the cold so far has remined pretty locked in in Siberia and Scandy.

It is strange that you should ask me a question as I had noticed something that I thought you may be able to help me on, and I was just about to put it on the MAD thread as it concerns the Arctic SST's.

The  SST actual map on CR shows all the Arctic ice as at a 0C actual. It is confusing because the ice seems to be at a fixed temperature (not true) and is probably not calculated at all as it is not a sea surface temperature as such..

That is OK, but I thought that sea ice freezing point was -1.8C So actually the ice is at -1.8C not 0C,

   

Now all is OK (?????) so far...

But even on the ice edge where freezing is occurring, I can  see no SST temps below about -0.5C/-1.0C., almost as if they have based it upon the ice being at 0C, when it is really at -1.8C. It would be better if they chose different colours to thee standard colour for ice.. perhaps diff shades of blue for the differentiations.

However on to anomalies -

Here they do use different colours but I cannot see anything below -1C anomaly for the water surrounding the freezing ice..

It seems as though they have lost the -0.8c as a sea water change as it freezes.

Now you may think that is because of the small distance/scale involved , but I have noticed this is true even when a 'flash freeze' occurs covering hundreds of square kilo-meters, so that is not the real reason.

It is almost as if it is 'hard wired' into the algorythm, that surrounding the ice is a fixed sieve

 

I do not know or understand but you may have contacts.

 

 

and finally an interesting paper has just been released on the factors affecting Arctic sea ice which gives more light to our investigations into the Pacific Sea areas.  I'll leave the link to the paper with you - 

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4133/2023/tc-17-4133-2023.pdf

From the ASIF -

Very interesting article.  Repeating their concluding statement in their own words:
"For example, we find that the absence of strong summer sea-ice loss over the last 15 years is likely internally driven and related to Pacific variability (LFP2, Fig. 6; Screen and Deser, 2019; Baxter et al., 2019; Ding et al., 2019). Assuming this internal mode switches to its opposite phase, we expect it to contribute to accelerated summer Arctic sea-ice loss over the next decade."

- Indicating that it does indeed vary slightly with the ENSO, and the Pacific ocean currents.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age
Clarifications

[WYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

I think that  you are correct...

High pressure still really rules the roost up there with no signs of the polar vortex. Now that most of the internal to the basin ice has been covered, and with few colder outbreaks to lower latitudes. the ice has had little chance to  form in the outer oceans as the cold so far has remined pretty locked in in Siberia and Scandy.

It is strange that you should ask me a question as I had noticed something that I thought you may be able to help me on, and I was just about to put it on the MAD thread as it concerns the Arctic SST's.

The  SST anomaly map on CR shows all the Arctic ice as at a 0C anomaly.

That is OK, but I thought that sea ice freezing point was -1.8C So actually the ice is at -1.8C not 0C,

   

Now all is OK so far...

But even on the ice edge where freezing is occurring, I can  see no SST temps below about -0.5C/1.0C., almost as if they have based it upon the ice being at 0C, when it is really at -1.8C. It would be better if they chose different colours to thee standard color for ice.. perhaps diff shades of blue for the differentiations.

However on to anomalies -

Here they do use different colours but I cannot see anything below -1C anomaly for the water surrounding the ice..

It seems as though they have lost the -0.8c| sea water change as it freezes.

Now you may think that is because of the small distance/scale involved , but I have noticed this is true even when a 'flash freeze' occurs covering hundreds of square kilo-meters, so that is not the real reason.

It is almost as if it is 'hard wired' into the algorythm, that surrounding the ice is a fixed sieve

 

I do not know or understand but you may have contacts.

 

 

and finally an interesting paper has just been released on the factors affecting Arctic sea ice which gives more light to our investigations into the Pacific Sea areas.  I'll leave the link to the paper with you - 

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4133/2023/tc-17-4133-2023.pdf

From the ASIF -

Very interesting article.  Repeating their concluding statement in their own words:
"For example, we find that the absence of strong summer sea-ice loss over the last 15 years is likely internally driven and related to Pacific variability (LFP2, Fig. 6; Screen and Deser, 2019; Baxter et al., 2019; Ding et al., 2019). Assuming this internal mode switches to its opposite phase, we expect it to contribute to accelerated summer Arctic sea-ice loss over the next decade."

- Indicating that it does indeed vary slightly with the ENSO, and the Pacific ocean currents.

Unfortunately I don't have any weather-related contacts. Just comparing your chart from Copernicus to the  ECMWF to look for differences, though, the ECM does show quite large areas below 0C. Might be worth keeping an eye on these, as you can see the ECMs forecast shows that a lot of the areas in the deep purple colours do then go on to freeze.

My day job is analytical in nature but not in this field - this is strictly a hobby, though I have taken a university module in climate science, though of course that does not qualify me as any sort of expert in that field either. What I can bring is my statistical knowledge, and whatever I am able to read and understand from general and/or scientific articles, some of which are reasonably accessible to the layman, and others which aren't.

In terms of the article, I have to say that it wasn't an easy read! Based on what I understood of it though, it appears that the analytical approach essentially looks for the most important patterns affecting a particular variable, in this case Arctic sea ice. The technique seems to be part of the same broad family as Principal Component Analysis.

The most important seems to be the long-term warming trend, followed by ENSO and NAO and/or AO.

The fourth pattern is most interesting, and may be our long-term variability candidate - apparently it's fairly reminiscent of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This has been implicated in quite a few things, including most famously the global warming slowdown seen in the 2000s, and has a 20 to 30 year cycle. The last warm cycle was in 2014, and hence the 2012 low in sea ice is quite close to that in terms of timeframe. Hence, we might expect a slower decline in the 2020s compared to the 2010s as a result. Of course, there will still be year-to-year variability.

Here's the history of the PDO index:

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

11 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

Unfortunately I don't have any weather-related contacts. Just comparing your chart from Copernicus to the  ECMWF to look for differences, though, the ECM does show quite large areas below 0C. Might be worth keeping an eye on these, as you can see the ECMs forecast shows that a lot of the areas in the deep purple colours do then go on to freeze.

My day job is analytical in nature but not in this field - this is strictly a hobby, though I have taken a university module in climate science, though of course that does not qualify me as any sort of expert in that field either. What I can bring is my statistical knowledge, and whatever I am able to read and understand from general and/or scientific articles, some of which are reasonably accessible to the layman, and others which aren't.

In terms of the article, I have to say that it wasn't an easy read! Based on what I understood of it though, it appears that the analytical approach essentially looks for the most important patterns affecting a particular variable, in this case Arctic sea ice. The technique seems to be part of the same broad family as Principal Component Analysis.

The most important seems to be the long-term warming trend, followed by ENSO and NAO and/or AO.

The fourth pattern is most interesting, and may be our long-term variability candidate - apparently it's fairly reminiscent of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This has been implicated in quite a few things, including most famously the global warming slowdown seen in the 2000s, and has a 20 to 30 year cycle. The last warm cycle was in 2014, and hence the 2012 low in sea ice is quite close to that in terms of timeframe. Hence, we might expect a slower decline in the 2020s compared to the 2010s as a result. Of course, there will still be year-to-year variability.

Here's the history of the PDO index:

 

Thanks for the above...

1) The PDO looks very interesting for any additional variability of the ice.

2) As for the C.R. (GFS) on the way it handles the SST's on the ice edge - it doesn't look right at all.

and the Copernicus one you produced looks as one would expect.

I have applied for a Userid on the system. 

 A final thought -   GFS (NSIDC based )  has consistently shown slightly higher anomalies than the ECMWF in just about everything. Could the way it handles the ice temperature data be a possible reason? I hope not.

Thanks again..

MIA

[WYorksWeather]

25 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks for the above...

1) The PDO looks very interesting for any additional variability of the ice.

2) As for the C.R. (GFS) on the way it handles the SST's on the ice edge - it doesn't look right at all.

and the Copernicus one you produced looks as one would expect.

I have applied for a Userid on the system. 

 A final thought -   GFS (NSIDC based )  has consistently shown slightly higher anomalies than the ECMWF in just about everything. Could the way it handles the ice temperature data be a possible reason? I hope not.

Thanks again..

MIA

To be fair, as long as the methodology used by a particular dataset is consistent within itself, it's still a useful resource. For example, slightly off-topic, but in global temperature datasets, the actual average temperature of the Earth is more uncertain than the change in that temperature over time, hence the common practice of reporting anomalies from a reference period.

I think it will also depend on details of the algorithm, and also limitations of the dataset. One example is that the ECM generally has higher resolution than the GFS in its forecasting suite, so I wonder if this will also be the case for the snow and ice data. For its forecasting, GFS uses a 13km grid, and the ECM uses a 9km grid. Therefore, if you imagine a three-by-three grid like this on the ECM:

[] [] []

[] [] []

[] [] []

It would only have a 2x2 representation on the GFS (roughly speaking):

[] []

[] []

As you are no doubt aware, the calculation requires that a particular grid must have 15% sea ice cover in order to be included in the data. If we imagine that the area represented by the 3x3 or 2x2 grid had a sea ice content average of 12% (just below the threshold), you might get something like this.

ECM:

[12] [17] [16]

[14] [10] [10]

[11] [10] [08]

If we then collapse this down to a 2x2 grid, we could calculate like this (since we need 2.25 ECM cells for each GFS cell).

Top left cell: (12 + 0.5 * 17 + 0.5 * 14 + 0.25 * 10) / 2.25  = 13

Top right: (16 + 0.5 * 17 + 0.5 * 10 + 0.25 * 10) / 2.25 = 14

Bottom left: (11 + 0.5 * 14 + 0.5 * 10 + 0.25 * 10) / 2.25 = 11

Bottom right: (8 + 0.5 * 10 + 0.5 * 10 + 0.25 * 10) / 2.25 = 9

So our GFS version of the ECM grid might look like this:

[13] [14]

[11] [09]

Hence, the ECM version would count two grids as having sea ice, but because of the averaging involved, the lower resolution GFS would count no sea ice area.

That's just one obvious potential difference between the GFS and ECM. I'd need to check to see the grid sizes in the actual datasets for comparison.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

To be fair, as long as the methodology used by a particular dataset is consistent within itself, it's still a useful resource. For example, slightly off-topic, but in global temperature datasets, the actual average temperature of the Earth is more uncertain than the change in that temperature over time, hence the common practice of reporting anomalies from a reference period.

I think it will also depend on details of the algorithm, and also limitations of the dataset. One example is that the ECM generally has higher resolution than the GFS in its forecasting suite, so I wonder if this will also be the case for the snow and ice data. For its forecasting, GFS uses a 13km grid, and the ECM uses a 9km grid. Therefore, if you imagine a three-by-three grid like this on the ECM:

[] [] []

[] [] []

[] [] []

It would only have a 2x2 representation on the GFS (roughly speaking):

[] []

[] []

As you are no doubt aware, the calculation requires that a particular grid must have 15% sea ice cover in order to be included in the data. If we imagine that the area represented by the 3x3 or 2x2 grid had a sea ice content average of 12% (just below the threshold), you might get something like this.

ECM:

[12] [17] [16]

[14] [10] [10]

[11] [10] [08]

If we then collapse this down to a 2x2 grid, we could calculate like this (since we need 2.25 ECM cells for each GFS cell).

Top left cell: (12 + 0.5 * 17 + 0.5 * 14 + 0.25 * 10) / 2.25  = 13

Top right: (16 + 0.5 * 17 + 0.5 * 10 + 0.25 * 10) / 2.25 = 14

Bottom left: (11 + 0.5 * 14 + 0.5 * 10 + 0.25 * 10) / 2.25 = 11

Bottom right: (8 + 0.5 * 10 + 0.5 * 10 + 0.25 * 10) / 2.25 = 9

So our GFS version of the ECM grid might look like this:

[13] [14]

[11] [09]

Hence, the ECM version would count two grids as having sea ice, but because of the averaging involved, the lower resolution GFS would count no sea ice area.

That's just one obvious potential difference between the GFS and ECM. I'd need to check to see the grid sizes in the actual datasets for comparison.

 

Re the above... Yep I too have been involved in statistics as a student, (60 years ago now - though I did occasionally have to use them at work (always had to check my notes!))  so the above affects I had understood.

However it still does not explain why it is wrong with a flash freeze, where the GFS always takes quite a few days before the temps catch up with reality (normally 3-5 days)).. 

It looks to me  as if the main symptom is that the GFS forecasts uses temperatures based on its current ice edge position and doesn't seem to take into account the next few days freezing when producing a forecast for say day10.

As you say it is consistent , but there is something odd in what they are doing.

   

 

Can I just cut into  this discussion - whilst going into CR to give charts on the above I was quite shocked to see this page

-   

Basically, from today,  they are using the Euro datasets for their main climate change measurement indicators, and not GFS......

It does indicate that all is not  well with the GFS positions.

Wow...

   

 

So, to continue,  if I take the next 10 day position on GFS, which your ECM predictions above show ice moving into the Bering Ocean  ( I believe that to be true),as well as  Kara and Hudson then look at the GFS temperatures for the same period  (also they have never shown an ice forecast chart!!), then the temp is little different from today. In reality they will be quite a bit lower.

                             

This also applies to Hudson as well as Kara (inside the Severnya Islands), also. 

So I do have real concerns about the GFS temperature surrounding the Sea ice.

Perhaps with good reason...

MIA

MIA

 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[swfc]

Hi. Can someone post the latest snow cover over Europe. Tia

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, swfc said:

Hi. Can someone post the latest snow cover over Europe. Tia

Here you go with the previous day -

        

 

Also big increase in Baltic Sea ice today (30%).

 

MIA

Edited December 10, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 days since the last update...

Snow cover in the N American continent is below average, and although this is partially offset by slightly higher than usual snow cover in Europe and Asia, we are still at lowish levels. -

   

Sea ice extent cover over the last few days has showed the now repetitive trend of slow change followed by a leap.

A gain today of +206K Km2 after 3 patch gains tells the story -

   

Detail was quite interesting with ice cover in the N A continent in Hudson Bay rising by 120K Km2 (the polar bears will be safe for another year) , whilst the ice also started to cover the coasts of Labrador for the first time.

In the east the Bering Ocean sealed off the  gap between NA and Asia for the first time, and there was a large increase in the SOO.  

Also ice was observed in the Yellow Sea for the first time (4 days later then last year).

So we now have  all the outlaying sea ice areas producing ice.

The first 2 weeks of December are traditionally the time at which 'outer' icing commences after a pause, and this year is no exception.

Future ice total extents will now be dependent upon how much cold leaks out of the Arctic basin.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

Before Xmas ,  a latest update...  (7 days since the last one)

Snow in Europe has moved back over the last week to the Russian border. with milder Atlantic airs pushing through.

Despite this, Asia and particularly China has been 'basking' in snow.

The North America continent has been short of wintry weather but is showing signs of an upcoming wintry spell. 

         

 

Sea ice has spent the week gradually filling in the inner Arctic basin oceans  (about to the scheduled date- despite a very slow start). This means that the sea ice extent has 'joined the pack', for the period of the second week of December.  (thanks to the Arctic sea forum) -

 

though more recently the extent has been improving rapidly and has burst out of the pack - 

      

So a large increase in the last 3 days. Cause?

The starting up of relatively early ice freeze up in the oceans out of the inner basin. This has resulted in a large (for the time of year) increase in all the outer sea areas,  with the exception of the Baltic. (See individual sea areas below for charts ) -

     

   

        

This to me is quite surprising,  as according to most temperature and  SST's records the northern hemisphere is undergoing a huge warming. So how is the ice forming so readily outside the Basin?

The next 2 weeks are likely to be quite interesting, particularly if the touted SSW occurs.

MIA

 

  

[claret047]

Just a quick note from me to wish all on this thread and their families  a very merry Christmas and a prosperous and healthy new year. I would like to thank David (MIA) for all his hard work in posting so much information on this site to make it so interesting and to the others for their great contributions.

Judging by comments we are to date in a reasonable place as far as the amount of ice that has accumulated within the arctic and long may it continue.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, claret047 said:

Just a quick note from me to wish all on this thread and their families  a very merry Christmas and a prosperous and healthy new year. I would like to thank David (MIA) for all his hard work in posting so much information on this site to make it so interesting and to the others for their great contributions.

Judging by comments we are to date in a reasonable place as far as the amount of ice that has accumulated within the arctic and long may it continue.

Thanks for the above Dave (Claret047), and may I wish a happy Xmas and a healthy and brilliant new year to you, and to one and all.

As it so happens I have been watching the worlds (not just NH) sea ice changes quite closely over the last 2 -3 weeks (over the long week end break)., and decided to do something about it as a report, which I will report separately below so as to not upset the normal flow on here.

So a quick update on the NH....

Snow has continued to be fairly sparse over the greater extent of the NH. The only places are China, Alaska and the Yucatan Peninsula, and Eastern Siberia to have excess snow at this date.    However we live in hope!!.

Sea ice has continued to expand rapidly in the last 2 weeks.   (thanks to the ASIF and Masie see below) -

        

 

ASIF (Jaxa) gone from 3rd (last week) to 13th lowest today, and looks a though it could easily go to 17th highest shortly (out of 17, although this include one year in the early 2000'nds ).

The change is as I believe, (as I suggested in my previous notes), to do with a quite quick refreeze in the Central Basin this year, followed by a consequent longer than normal lasting stasis, before the outer sea areas start to refreeze. This change now appears to be gaining momentum as ice completes (its admittedly late) arrival in Hudson Bay, but is steaming ahead in all the eastern oceans of Bering, the SOO , and now the Yellow Sea, (and also in Greenland).

However I have also noted widespread reports (particularly locally!!) of the very unusual appearance of many nacreous clouds in the northern hemisphere. Some lovely photos below from the MIdland thread (with thanks). They  are not normally common unless the air is very dry and exceptionally cold and do indicate that much larger than normal levels of water vapor ( and other rarer gasses??) are present in larger amounts  in the stratosphere.

The  reason which appears to  spring out to me is the effect of the Hunga Tonga Volcano water eruptions into the upper levels of our earth, maybe  at a time of increased solar irradiation.

For a more detailed discussion of further interesting current observations see my next note below...   

MIA 

      

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Hotspur62]

Just wanted to thank you MIA for all the time you spend on this thread.I take my hat off to you for your dedication and wish you a very merry Christmas and look forward to see how the ice progresses in 2024

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 22/11/2023 at 10:12, Midlands Ice Age said:

Following on from the above posts about ANTARCTIC ice and there not be a similar thread I will supply the correct info...

Thanks to the ASIF

      Extent

and Area -

                 

2 to 3 months ago we were running at lows but there has been a recovery (against anomalies) recently .

So 'doomster' reporters are somewhat out of date.

I strongly 'suspect' that this drop in the Antarctic  ice is caused by the H20 put out by Hunga Tonga. (time will tell). It is being researched right now.

Perhaps what is of more significance is the overall sea ice totals -

 

which have been performing strongly recently due to the Arctic sea ice  performance (see late today for details.).

MIA

Following on from my immediate post above and this discussion we had in mid November on here (see above for the start), I thought that a worldwide sea ice extent discussion/report  could be interesting (and unexpected for most). 

 (Thanks to the ASIF) I present the current worldwide charts and positions)  -

       

A truly rapidly changing and unexpected set of charts.

 

Why might this be??

One reason is the  rapid onset of the refreeze in the Northern Hemisphere as detailed in my previous post  above, but it cannot explain everything. Examination of the SH has now suddenly also started to gain an anomalous and large  amount of ice for the time of year. 

      

So it looks as if we could well be seeing a sudden increase of ice extent across the globe.

When I wrote the November post (above), I commented that the Antarctic appeared to be in 'recovery' mode , well this has continued and if anything the trend has increased following the very low figures for 2022/23 S.H. Season.  Extent has now reached 7th lowest  (was 2nd 5 weeks ago, and lowest for most this year) .

I have looked down at the detail level for the Antarctic oceans and they show  that the Weddell Sea has just about stopped melting, and most of the  others are slowing down at the same time as the change to a slower rate of warming is occurring over the continent. The Weddell Sea is the largest ocean around Antarctica and it has suddenly appeared as the 20th lowest for area after being lowest for many months -

        

What is going on down there?

Well  the only thing that can stand out is the Hunga Tonga Volcano. If you remember it was suggested that its effects might well take up to 2 years to work through the atmosphere.  -  , Well it looks like it took 18 - 20 months.

The fact that we are seeing huge (for us) amounts of nacreous cloud in the NH could well indicate that the H2O has now dispersed into the northern hemisphere as well,  and that since the sea ice is recovering so quickly that its warming effects are now eroding away.

Can anything else be suggested?

It, to my way of thinking could not be CC direct impact as a large change (such as this in this direction) has not been postulated. It does however support aspects of the CC theory in that H2O in the stratosphere could be seen as vastly warming. although of a very temporary nature..

My thoughts are that it could also have long term implications for the development of life on earth. Maybe it was (going back 2 -3 billion years ago) a reason for the earth suddenly warming and cooling. During most of this time the globe was  covered in oceans. The major continents (Pangea, etc) were fairly transient (as well as fairly small in total earth terms) and so any major long-term effects of tectonic volcanos (producing Co2 from underground seams of plants, etc ) (assuming  there were any about then) would be vastly reduced at that time, in comparison to the huge amounts of time that earth was under oceans.

So , could my 'suggestions'/ideas  be correct?

Only time can tell...

MIA

Edited December 24, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Merry Christmas to everyone.

Jaxa this morning has brought more Xmas cheer with yet another  century break (though todays data only on rounding) of (+100K). This is the 10th consecutive average century and shows the freezing 'energy' this year is very much increased, and this is now showing outside the Arctic Basin. For comparison the average for this date and time of year is about 40K, and reducing.

This, as was suggested yesterday,   has leapt this years rankings to 16th lowest, with only 2014, 2008, 2007 in front of it, in the last 18 years..  (Data thanks to the ASIF).

Maise has also gone to the earliest date in its history (since 2006 only), that of Dec 24th to reach 13M KM2.

Great news all round!!  Apart from on the BBC,  as they do not apparently deal with good news.

 

       

 

    

Off to get ready for my Xmas lunch. 

MIA