Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, Metwatch said:

A quick question on this chart 

Does the temperature specified in the open waters equate to the temperature above the freezing point of salt water  (-1.8C), or is it the absolute temperature of the ocean.

I do not understand which it is and I cannot read the FInish (or Swedish) language to sort it out.

Also the isotherm lines seem to be in different places and I am not certain why.

 I guess it wont make any difference to the ice freezing, but it would be useful to know!!. 

MIA 

[Metwatch]

21 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

A quick question on this chart 

Does the temperature specified in the open waters equate to the temperature above the freezing point of salt water  (-1.8C), or is it the absolute temperature of the ocean.

I do not understand which it is and I cannot read the FInish (or Swedish) language to sort it out.

Also the isotherm lines seem to be in different places and I am not certain why.

 I guess it wont make any difference to the ice freezing, but it would be useful to know!!. 

MIA 

Here's the full res photo, should be clearer to see!

[cheese]

Besides ice, there's been a pretty good example of sea effect snow affecting eastern Sweden over the past few days. 

 

[Aleman]

18 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

A quick question on this chart 

Does the temperature specified in the open waters equate to the temperature above the freezing point of salt water  (-1.8C), or is it the absolute temperature of the ocean.

I do not understand which it is and I cannot read the FInish (or Swedish) language to sort it out.

Also the isotherm lines seem to be in different places and I am not certain why.

 I guess it wont make any difference to the ice freezing, but it would be useful to know!!. 

MIA 

The isotherms are absolute. The figures in bubbles are a historical mean, I think. Remember that the Gulf of Bothnia is almost fresh water. Salinity only approaches typical deep sea levels as you leave the Danish Straights

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Aleman said:

The isotherms are absolute. The figures in bubbles are a historical mean, I think. Remember that the Gulf of Bothnia is almost fresh water. Salinity only approaches typical deep sea levels as you leave the Danish Straights

 

 

Thanks Aleman - that makes a lot more sense of it all.

MIA  

[cheese]

It's a bit dark but you can see the Baltic Sea in Stockholm frozen over here (specifically the bay called Saltsjön).

 

Edited January 5 by cheese

[Midlands Ice Age]

14 hours ago, cheese said:

It's a bit dark but you can see the Baltic Sea in Stockholm frozen over here (specifically the bay called Saltsjön).

 

Yep

Scandinavia really going into the freezer now, Finland and Sweden have been there for a few days now.

I have just been watching a video issued by Southern Norway authorities issued on the Mon - Wed snowstorm this week.

It was mainly coastal based apparently, whereas in  the mountains behind the coastal strip the roads were still open.

Towns on the coast were paralysed by up to 1 metre of snow and drifts the size of houses, 

I understand that Denmark was similar.

     The snow is now showing up on the north of the European continent I think in advance of a more general increase this week.

Meanwhile the Baltic ice continues to grow 

      as does the Northern hemisphere sea ice extent.

Jaxa is now showing us at the highest level in the last 20 years and is now approaching the levels seen in the early 2000;s. 20/20 full maximum house (thanks ASIF)

       

However, before comment, we may be just at a sweet spot for ice this year, particularly as we are forecast a major outflow of the cold air into both Europe and North America this next week, whilst the Pacific is already cold and in full ice mode . The question is will any 'warmer' air move in to replace the colder air in the Arctic   -  I suspect it would  make little difference to the sea ice extent, but may impact the volumes and ice concentrations. if it does. 

We do not have the latest DMI temp for the Arctic Basin yet (EOY), but up until the end of last year we were moving into a colder Arctic than we have seen recently. This would tie in with the extra ice currently being seen.

  

All for now...  I'll show the video of Norway blizzards  if I can find it.

MIA

 

Edited January 5 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Couldn't find it, but this is a sample of places not as badly affected -

In pictures: Nordic states gripped by winter freeze - BBC News 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-67871751  

 

 

[Aleman]

MIA - I've posted a couple of Scandinavian Blizzard vids on twitter, etc. thread. They are quite something if you watch them through. It's unusual to see them struggle with snow and that's ingoring the local record low temperatures in the odd place.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Another month on from my prior update and now Norway joining in seeing bonkers snow depths

 

 

 

[Kaisla]

No wonder motorists are in trouble. Those accumulations are just ridiculous!

[Midlands Ice Age]

Friday was  my last update for Scandinavia , but the total ice situation in the N H is going BONKERS right now....

First to the snow reports where the situation is starting to improve, particularly in Europe, and I expect this to advance rapidly this week as Scandinavia moves into Europe for a while.  Expect the US to follow suite soon.

       

Then to the sea ice -

Well after 6 days of gains in total extent, Masie has again increased by +160K KM2 today after previous gains of (+2K (a week ago), +53K, +66K , +100K, +78K. +89K, +160K) towards a total of 13,887K Km2.

  

To put this in perspective 14M Km2  has not been reached until February for about  the last 10 years now (apart from 1 year), and this is all with an apparent increasing temperature worldwide trend. The normal average increase for this time of year is a +40K increase!!!!! There is little doubt now that the reason is the outer sea areas that are freezing over very rapidly this year, despite we are told these rapidly increasing temperatures !!!

I am totally at a loss to give any explanation, without upsetting a lot of people.

Any ways   - the outer sea ice charts for today tell the story -

      

           

 

You can see the gist of it.

It is to many unexpected,  and it is quite amazing, though it  has been a possibility following the ice increases being well above trend this freeze up  year. Jaxa on ASIF is rapidly chasing down the average for the 2000's, after overtaking all years since  2004.

Meanwhile currently in the UK, we are awaiting the outcome of a complex weather situation,  .... Can we join in the fun??

MIA

 

Edited January 7 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

6 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Friday was  my last update for Scandinavia , but the total ice situation in the N H is going BONKERS right now....

First to the snow reports where the situation is starting to improve, particularly in Europe, and I expect this to advance rapidly this week as Scandinavia moves into Europe for a while.  Expect the US to follow suite soon.

       

Then to the sea ice -

Well after 6 days of gains in total extent, Masie has again increased by +160K KM2 today after previous gains of (+2K (a week ago), +53K, +66K , +100K, +78K. +89K, +160K) towards a total of 13,887K Km2.

  

To put this in perspective 14M Km2  has not been reached until February for about  the last 10 years now (apart from 1 year), and this is all with an apparent increasing temperature worldwide trend. The normal average increase for this time of year is a +40K increase!!!!! There is little doubt now that the reason is the outer sea areas that are freezing over very rapidly this year, despite we are told these rapidly increasing temperatures !!!

I am totally at a loss to give any explanation, without upsetting a lot of people.

Any ways   - the outer sea ice charts for today tell the story -

      

           

 

You can see the gist of it.

It is to many unexpected,  and it is quite amazing, though it  has been a possibility following the ice increases being well above trend this freeze up  year. Jaxa on ASIF is rapidly chasing down the average for the 2000's, after overtaking all years since  2004.

Meanwhile currently in the UK, we are awaiting the outcome of a complex weather situation,  .... Can we join in the fun??

MIA

6 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Friday was  my last update for Scandinavia , but the total ice situation in the N H is going BONKERS right now....

First to the snow reports where the situation is starting to improve, particularly in Europe, and I expect this to advance rapidly this week as Scandinavia moves into Europe for a while.  Expect the US to follow suite soon.

       

Then to the sea ice -

Well after 6 days of gains in total extent, Masie has again increased by +160K KM2 today after previous gains of (+2K (a week ago), +53K, +66K , +100K, +78K. +89K, +160K) towards a total of 13,887K Km2.

  

To put this in perspective 14M Km2  has not been reached until February for about  the last 10 years now (apart from 1 year), and this is all with an apparent increasing temperature worldwide trend. The normal average increase for this time of year is a +40K increase!!!!! There is little doubt now that the reason is the outer sea areas that are freezing over very rapidly this year, despite we are told these rapidly increasing temperatures !!!

I am totally at a loss to give any explanation, without upsetting a lot of people.

Any ways   - the outer sea ice charts for today tell the story -

      

           

 

You can see the gist of it.

It is to many unexpected,  and it is quite amazing, though it  has been a possibility following the ice increases being well above trend this freeze up  year. Jaxa on ASIF is rapidly chasing down the average for the 2000's, after overtaking all years since  2004.

Meanwhile currently in the UK, we are awaiting the outcome of a complex weather situation,  .... Can we join in the fun??

MIA

 

Hi MIA

 

a question , is the northern hemisphere no gaining more ice as a result of a good refreeze , and a viscous circle of more ice making conditions colder and more ice forming ? A perfect storm if you will ? 
 

as you say in a “warming world “ some would say this is not possible , 

 

but clearly it’s happening

[Midlands Ice Age]

20 minutes ago, nobble said:

Hi MIA

 

a question , is the northern hemisphere no gaining more ice as a result of a good refreeze , and a viscous circle of more ice making conditions colder and more ice forming ? A perfect storm if you will ? 
 

as you say in a “warming world “ some would say this is not possible , 

 

but clearly it’s happening

Cannot answer you directly as I promised the thread would not mention CC !

What you say is correct, Nobbie - but why is more ice being produced in the first place?

Is it the result of 3 years of La Nina??? 

if so it will change again very soon.

Is it the result of the Hunga Tonga Volcano ?      People on the ASIF deny this, though it could have been is my opinion.

It might be associated with the salinity of the oceans, though they do not appear to have changed.

So the only thing we know for sure is that the  temperature of the oceans has lowered.

but all the CC measurements say this is not so..

I DO NOT KNOW is the answer.

 I am expecting some more incredible news tomorrow on the ice front.

MIA

 

 

 

 

Edited January 7 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

I'd guess the most likely reason is the solar cycle. We are at the end of a downswing. The cooler half of the cycle was 2016-2022 but energy comes in at the equator and takes a year or two to be absorbed by the sea and move out to poles. A solar upswing has just started in early 2023 so I'd guess maybe one more cold winter in 2025 and then we'll see mild, windy winters in Europe again.  There are loads of other factors at play, though, so don't expect to see a clear trend. There has been a pattern going back centuries but it sometimes seems to go missing for the odd decade.

[Midlands Ice Age]

****** SO ON TO THE BRILLIANT NEWS I PREDICTED YESTERDAY   *****

The JAXA sea ice extent has smashed through the average for 2000' barrier. 

This morning (and for me it was key) the ASIF figures told the story...

     

Not only that, but it went past the 2004 numbers also. 

That now only leaves 2000 to 2003 to challenge, as we hit 21st lowest from the last 20 years!!!

A day I (having listened to some) thought would never occur in my lifetime.

This mornings/d NATICE show decreases in the East but compensated by increases in the west with Barents and Baltic racing ahead again.

       

 

Today worth celebrating.          

MIA

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very very interesting indeed.  Great factual thread this, the ice rebound is a head scratcher.
keep it going Dave ….been and is a great read

BFTP

Edited January 8 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johncam]

See the ice has also reached Jan Mayen Island according  to latest Masie which must be the first time in a lot of years 

[johncam]

Just about reached that should have read 

[ScottSnow]

Great news in my opinion.

Thanks for the updates @Midlands Ice Age

[Stravaiger]

Fantastic to hear this - thanks for the updates MIA - and to see ice forming in places we haven't seen it for a while. Bit further south but almost looks like the Odden ice tongue is emerging once again to lick at the Greenland Sea.

Proper old school winter in Scandinavia, too, might even see the Gulf of Riga ice over if this winter keeps on going. Would be great to hit 14K km2 before Feb this year, maybe even an above 15K maximum is on the cards.

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, johncam said:

See the ice has also reached Jan Mayen Island according  to latest Masie which must be the first time in a lot of years 

Interesting this John.

Ice has only appeared once or twice round the island this century. It happened reasonably regularly last century. 

  It is SW of Svalbard and about 200 miles from the Greenland land mass.  Its the little red dot.

 It is the dot here of Greenland, with ice close by (as you suggest).

The famous Peter Wadhams has been keeping data from the island, and has identified 2 conditions for the ice to appear here.

1) During a cold winter - when there is a large flow through Fram  (this year?) . It is the most common form/condition  by a long way.

2) Late in the freeze season when a strong Arctic anticyclone has formed, and ice gets transferred from the Greenland ice pack to the SE.,

This year it could happen by combining both causes!!

It also happens that it seems to be a regular precursor to Icelandic sea ice.

The following is a video of the ices approach in detail  - 

  https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif

MIA

Edited January 8 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

I've seen Icelandic sea ice a few times in recent years (to the West/NW). Maybe there is a small shallow there and/or heavy snow has dropped on colder water on that side. It's an unusual connection to Greenland I'm wondering about.

 

With regard to sea ice forming, sea new ice off Newfoundland after recent snow. There is occasionally isolated ice patches recorded in this cold sea area after heavy snow. I think I posted similar last year.

 

Edited January 8 by Aleman

[johncam]

57 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Interesting this John.

Ice has only appeared once or twice round the island this century. It happened reasonably regularly last century. 

  It is SW of Svalbard and about 200 miles from the Greenland land mass.  Its the little red dot.

 It is the dot here of Greenland, with ice close by (as you suggest).

The famous Peter Wadhams has been keeping data from the island, and has identified 2 conditions for the ice to appear here.

1) During a cold winter - when there is a large flow through Fram  (this year?) . It is the most common form/condition  by a long way.

2) Late in the freeze season when a strong Arctic anticyclone has formed, and ice gets transferred from the Greenland ice pack to the SE.,

This year it could happen by combining both causes!!

It also happens that it seems to be a regular precursor to Icelandic sea ice.

The following is a video of the ices approach in detail  - 

  https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif

MIA

Thanks MIA 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

 

 

Following a post that I made in the MAD thread I realised that I had not performed  an end of month review of the Arctic volume and thickness .

 So here I go to correct the situation.

 

Despite the rapid increase in surface ice  (extent) , the volume and thickness graphs have not followed suite.

This is not surprising as 95% of the NH ice is stored within the Arctic basin and we know that the large amounts  of sea ice increases are new shallow ice, and have  been recorded outside the basin.

However, it is worth exploring in a bit more detail and  here is my normal chart for thickness and volume from the DMI  -

    and for end of year                    

So these are not showing much in the way of change .

However, below the totals are some large regional  changes which can be seen in the graphicals below,  (thanks to the ASIF) -  

     for totals

and the following for all others within the 'western' basin -

        

 

and the following for eastern oceans =

        

     

 

These show (as we have experienced elsewhere) that the Russian oceans are rapidly gaining ice , whereas the western US oceans seem to be below average, and hence are losing ice..

This seems to be the major difference that the ice is showing this year.

More ice than recently in the East, less than the last few years in the West.

It applies to all measurements of ice.   

The real question is why has this happened.  It also seems to be leading to more surface ice but will it affect longer term ice figures?

MIA

 

 

Edited January 8 by Midlands Ice Age