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Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24


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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

I speculated previously with MIA about a rapid refreeze in certain areas:

i. where sea temperatures remained oddly low after most models had shown ice had melted and should have mixed in.

ii. where DMI was still showing ice while most others were not (particularly in an arm stretched out to and through Wrangel Island).

iii. where climatereanalyser was showing strange temporary "shadowy" ice patterns forming away from the main pack, seemingly after heavy snowfalls (suggesting either the sea was already on the verge of refreezing or had never actually fully melted and mixed in, leaving lots of colder slushy freshwater atop the warmer denser brine).

The rapid refreeze, particularly along an arm through Wrangel Island, suggests there is something in one or all of these. (And not at all ruling out any of MIA's comments about temperatures drops with central high pressure, etc.   - these being in addition.)

 It raises points to consider (for the layperson?) about the different algorithms used for detecting sea ice. They use different cut-offs of 5-20% and different smoothing of 1-3 days, perhaps more. I've read about such in the past but forgotten most of it, and they might have changed. When one model says there is ice and another does not, it does not mean one is wrong or right, they are just measuring slightly different things, and this needs to be understood. It's probably most highlighted when one occasionally sees a patch of ice disappear and reappear a few days later. The wind or tide dispersed it and congregated it again (or similar). Did the ice disappear? Probably not - but each algorithm interprets that in its own unique way.  It's not as black and white as it appears on the pretty coloured maps!

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

A large increase through Wrangel Island has now been seen in The Alaska Sea Ice Program series, too. (Possibly same data sources.)  Interestingly (but of negligible value to overall Artic ice totals) are tiny new formations in Anchorage Bay and the Alaskan Peninsula just as it extends out to the Aleutian Islands. You might have to try a few different maps and zoom in a lot to see anything.

 

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 hour ago, Aleman said:

A large increase through Wrangel Island has now been seen in The Alaska Sea Ice Program series, too. (Possibly same data sources.)  Interestingly (but of negligible value to overall Artic ice totals) are tiny new formations in Anchorage Bay and the Alaskan Peninsula just as it extends out to the Aleutian Islands. You might have to try a few different maps and zoom in a lot to see anything.

 

Yep I have been expecting something like that for the last week. Ever since I noticed that snow had fallen on some of the inner Aleutian Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hopefully it will be picked up tomorrow by the major ice extent models.

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
On 04/10/2023 at 21:26, Metwatch said:

Last 30 days animation, some nice increases recently.

ims20231003euasia-30ani.gif

 

Another 30 day animation update:

ims20231022euasia-30ani.thumb.gif.8537b33e0b8c59ffc68295147b732c0e.gif

 

This animation shows 22nd of October back to 2012 to compare. 2020 and 2014 had the most coverage of snow across Russia. 2013 had the most Arctic sea ice extent by today. 2023 is somewhere in the middle since 2012.

ezgif-2-c3db377f97.thumb.gif.89be22829d0db005f917abda34786240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Quick update tonight..

Masie increases by 128K Km2, despite a fall of (-41K) in Chukchi.

Good increases in most other sea areas, but notably in Kara (+51K) and Barents (+14K)  as pack ice pushes towards Svalbard.

Warmer air has entered via Bering into the east of the Arctic.

image.thumb.png.b046644f5a019d4135e7a7305a270aa3.png  

Snow cover now starting to increase steadily in N America, as the colder air is now moving south into the United States.

The first snows are now showing up in Central Russia.

image.thumb.png.1a92289d88379c9f2479dca64c9e4c39.png  

Other information is that DMI temperature (above 80degrees) has returned , and is showing a large drop when  the anticyclone held sway over the Arctic. Since when it has increased again.

    image.thumb.png.6d54857de61e8e0360d7eb1106410a85.png  

An interesting change to the  weather patterns is about to happen over the 3-5 days, much as GFS predicted (forecast) last weekend

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
6 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Quick update tonight..

Masie increases by 128K Km2, despite a fall of (-41K) in Chukchi.

Good increases in most other sea areas, but notably in Kara (+51K) and Barents (+14K)  as pack ice pushes towards Svalbard.

Warmer air has entered via Bering into the east of the Arctic.

image.thumb.png.b046644f5a019d4135e7a7305a270aa3.png  

Snow cover now starting to increase steadily in N America, as the colder air now moving south into the United States.

The first snows are now showing up in Central Russia.

image.thumb.png.1a92289d88379c9f2479dca64c9e4c39.png  

Other information is that DMI temperature (above 80degrees) has returned , and is showing a large drop when  the anticyclone held sway over the Arctic. Since when it has increased again.

    image.thumb.png.6d54857de61e8e0360d7eb1106410a85.png  

An interesting change to the  weather patterns is about to happen over the 3-5 days, much as GFS predicted (forecast) last weekend

MIA

Love these reports MIA, great work.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Looks like snow cover should increase substantially across Scandinavia leading up to Halloween according to GFS...

gfs-16-144.thumb.png.24cfa83a6b531d1281f0a752aca5678e.png

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
8 minutes ago, cheese said:

Looks like snow cover should increase substantially across Scandinavia leading up to Halloween according to GFS...

gfs-16-144.thumb.png.24cfa83a6b531d1281f0a752aca5678e.png

One positive for winter is that Scandinavia is doing quite well for early snow cover this autumn.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
6 hours ago, Don said:

One positive for winter is that Scandinavia is doing quite well for early snow cover this autumn.

Reminds me of 2010/2011. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

A morning quick update from me again as I want to finish my weather 'trilogy' today.

Steady increases shown overnight by the NSNIC charts this morning  (for yesterday) for both snow and ice.

 image.thumb.png.bd3a6fdfe7aae68654197bd5c8870a8f.png    image.thumb.png.aab13d01ea1c9182c8a388275e2fd24b.png 

with Laptev virtually full,  the ESS following shortly and Kara making impressive early gains.

Of interest is that these sea areas are at the top of their rankings for the last 5 years , whereas the Canadian Archipelago and Hudson Bay are at their minima.

Just shows that I was totally wrong last spring when I was asked what impacts El Nino would have on the Arctic Ice!!!!.

My excuse is that El Nino hasn't kicked in properly yet as it hasn't totally coupled the Strat with the Trop;!!!

An interesting anomalies prediction chart was just shown in the Autumn MOD thread, which shows major warm anomalies predicted for the Arctic, but cold for the northern hemisphere  (above 55 degrees lat),     Copied here for interest -

 image.png.f3a035efaa7d1f2e5a92878c8148b5    

It will be interesting to see if the Arctic 'heat' affects the sea ice formation. (I have my doubts). 

Meanwhile snow continues to move westwards towards Europe and across Russia via Moscow, Albeit a week later than normal, though Northern Scandy remains cold..

image.thumb.png.0ea22ac5e56f3fbc3417861ac86e608f.png 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
39 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

And so to Part 3 of my Trilogy on Arctic ice  status.

Before I get on to it, Part 2 contains an error. Cambrian has pointed out that I have used the word 'jet'   stream, instead of 'gulf' stream. He is of course quite correct. Apologise from me.

Now   

(Get ready for a long boring read!!!)

Part 1 was current weather impacts. (positive showing  up until today)

Part2 was the medium term weather changes  (Nino, NIna, SSW, etc), which are positive and negative... and

Part 3 the longer term changes and impacts.

 

Firstly I will start by apologising to CC haters for discussing this.... 

But the temperature over the longer term (greater than 3 -5 years) is on an upward trend, so something must be happening...

Long term there does appear to be warming associated with Carbon Dioxide.

Most models seem to think it is of the order of 0.03C per 10 years. (Quite small).

We could  argue that this is long term natural warming (after the mini-ice age of 200 years ago)    -     but it is still happening.

 

This my summary of Global Warming.... ( take full responsibility if any of it is wrong\) ...

So what is it that brings up the 'warming' to about 0.1C  decade being observed recently,   and the possible 1.0C in the long term future?

Well the main answer is Water Vapour (1000 times more abundant, and 100 - 1000 times better as a Greenhouse gas in  absolute intrinsic terms ).    To a lesser extent it  is also methane (much less abundant, though an even  better G. Gas.)   and some other impurities in the atmosphere, Some of these are seen to be cooling eg SO2 (sulphates, and Nitrates), whilst others warming and cooling (Ozone), whilst still others are warming (fluoro-halogens, etc).         

         

A very complex chemical mixture which has stood us so well,  for so long.

Even then it is even more complicated than I have written  -- as some of the above chemicals work in different ways at different heights....   Water vapour in the Stratosphere appears to be cooling (at that height),  but it causes warming of the earth as less heat is then transferred into space  (Via OLR (Outgoing Long wave radiation)). Whereas lower down,  Water Vapour is both cooling and warming depending upon the type of weather conditions   (fog, thunderstorms, steady rain, lightening, etc).  It can also increase in volume and mass in the air at higher temperatures.   (Over oceans for example, but not in deserts)|.

I will say no more so as not excite the CC head hunters!!! 🙂 - apart from the fact that CO2 in itself is not a great warmer, (due to it relative scarcity), but that It utilises the other chemicals for its warming effect.

 So above we have a long term warming happening (someway)...

 

What else might change the above chemical soup??

There are a few  'obvious'  answers -

1) Humans. No further discussion on here. If someone wants to go further then its over to the C.C. section for more chat. 

2) Volcanos and Vulcanology. (In other words the earth - see below) 

3) Sun (and what I will call space). 

We can do little about changes in the earth's  orbit or the suns power. We may get energy sent to us from outer space.  But who knows?.

So Vulcanology and Volcanos will be the main topic ...

Traditional volcanos are numerous   (perhaps 10 every year) and (unless huge) present hardly any change to the earth's chemical atmospheric 'soup',

They, in the main, throw out oxides of Nitrogen and Sulphur, and quite a bit of iron oxides (in the form of magma), and some solids (mainly dust)|. Their atmospheric effects are 'cleaned' quite quickly ( a few days or weeks) by rainfall. In general they induce  a very small underlying negative impact on temperature, which may last a few weeks (The Icelandic ones of a few years ago, eg).

Some actually throw out a bit of Carbon Dioxide, but not many and they can be ignored. (needs underlying Carbon to activate\.

A few produce Water Vapour (steam), when they pass through underground water or maybe glaciers., and these could have a positive impact on temperatures. 

So (and this is the interesting new bit) we had had 2 occurrences of underwater/ocean explosive volcanos in the observable past .

1) Krakatoa - known for its explosive blowing away of a Pacific Island, but it also took away quite a bit below the ocean. from under the island.

It produced 1 - 2 years of worldwide cooling  (Including several days of reduced worldwide sunlight), but it could have been worse (It seems ), if it hadn't managed to also send up quite a bit of steam, into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere..  It is believed that steam was about 10% of the output.

2) Hunga Tonga (last year, where a more or less total underwater island was blown away.) 

It is now estimated that about 50% of 'emissions' where water vapour (steam).

It therefore contained much potentially warming material. 

This time it could be studied in great detail and the output is just being released by scientists, (mainly in China, Japan and in Holland).

They seem to agree that most of the vapour settled just below the stratosphere and was moved around by the world's weather systems mainly around the southern hemisphere.  (which is where it occured).

However about 146 million tons crossed into the stratosphere  (about 15% of the normal amounts there)..  Compared to just 420 tons of SO2 ( the normal cooling agent). The overall impact is therefore thought to be a warming.

Early modelling is showing that this warming will be about 0.1C over the whole earth and as much as 0.2C in the southern hemisphere.. (most volcanic output still remains there).

It seems as though the stratospheric water vapour has remained below the equator, whereas the tropospheric is rapidly dissipating it.

it is thought that it may well take in excess of 2 years to remove the impacts.

There are quite a few papers and articles being published and if people are interested I will supply details.

H2O in the stratosphere will combine with Ozone as well as the oxides of most compounds, and what impact will this have?  Also will it remove the fluoro-halogens?

Extremely interesting times for atmospheric science me thinks. They could not have arranged a better test.!!!!!!

The Antarctic is suddenly having one of its worst freezes ever... after 2022 saw its lowest ever temperature.  Is there a connection?

 

So what does this mean for the Arctic?????

Not a lot in the short-term as the Stratospheric H2O has not reached the northern polar regions  yet.

So far with the Autumn refreeze looking exactly like that of 2022, I would guess not much overall this year ..... But who am I to judge?

MIA

Thanks MIA

I copy a part of the introduction to a paper on the effects of water vapor in the stratosphere from 2019

Water vapor (H2O) is a key trace gas throughout the Earth's atmosphere. It fundamentally regulates the weather and climate of our planet (Brasseur & Solomon, 1995; Wallace & Hobbs, 2006). Water vapor in the stratosphere originates from both transport of tropospheric air through the tropical tropopause (Brewer, 1949) and in situ methane oxidation in the middle to upper stratosphere (Jones et al., 1986). Increasing stratospheric water vapor, especially in the lower stratosphere, cools the stratosphere but warms the troposphere (Dessler et al., 2013; Foster & Shine, 1999; Oinas et al., 2001; Shindell, 2001; Smith et al., 2001; Solomon et al., 2010). Accordingly, the 10% decrease of stratospheric water vapor right after 2000 (Randel et al., 2006) could have slowed the rate of global surface temperature increase by about 25% (Solomon et al., 2010). Increased water vapor in the stratosphere can also enhance polar stratospheric cloud formation and lead to more prolonged high-latitude ozone loss (Kirk-Davidoff et al., 1999; Shindell, 2001; Forster and Shine, 1999). In the upper mesosphere, more abundant water vapor from increasing methane contributes to more frequent polar mesospheric cloud occurrences at ~82 km (Thomas et al., 1989; Lubken et al., 2018). Based on all the mechanisms above, we argue that a long-term increase or decrease of water vapor in the stratosphere and mesosphere will have fundamental global and regional impacts.

It is clear to me that given the huge increase in water vapor in the stratosphere from the hunga tonga eruption that we should not be surprised by the large number of extreme heat and excessive rainfall pockets we have seen over the last 12 months.

There is considerable amount of research going on in regards to the effect of this eruption and I found it interesting in NICK F's early winter thoughts he referenced the possible effects as an unknown. So it is beginning to enter main stream forecasting.

Keep up the good work not everything is about CO2 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

The totals have continued to trend upwards with an increasingly impacting winter storm developing across Colorado with Denver likely within or very close to the heaviest snowfall rates.

 

😁😁🤩Some cams to check now before the system really cranks up 

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/colorado/breckenridge-mountain.html

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/colorado/breckenridge-main-street.html

 

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Breckenridge needs the temps to drop as currently 36F, and the snow is wet and melting. Light snow just started to fall in Denver city centre.

WWW.EARTHCAM.COM
Meanwhile the snow keeps falling in Boulder
BOULDERFLATIRONCAM.COM

Live webcam views of Boulder, Colorado
Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
On 18/10/2023 at 08:20, Stravaiger said:

Quite remarkable lack of snow for the time of year in Canada, as this anomaly chart from Rutgers University shows.

It will all change in the next week, as polar air sweeps southeastwards on Monday and Tuesday but notable to see at the current time.

Likely to see some colder air getting into Western Siberia in the next week too, helping to boost snow cover across that swathe of Russia and bring Eurasia up closer to average levels for the time of year.

image.thumb.png.51608f3569928d48ed040488657808c7.png

Its surprising how quickly things can change..

image.thumb.png.d33de6dc0245a66563eb3506c31aa0ba.png

Snow levels back on track after just 2 days of general snowfall

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

Heavy snow is predicted every day this week down the West Coast of Hudson Bay, with temperatures down to -15C in the northwest. Hudson Bay usually starts to freeze up at the start of November and looks likely to get off to a good start this year. Even Fort Albany in the south is predicted to get a few days of heavy snow and temperatures down to -10C. The Freeze up there is usually nearer mid-month but this might be enough for an early start.

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl

📈

ims20231029euasia-7ani.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
7 hours ago, Aleman said:

Heavy snow is predicted every day this week down the West Coast of Hudson Bay, with temperatures down to -15C in the northwest. Hudson Bay usually starts to freeze up at the start of November and looks likely to get off to a good start this year. Even Fort Albany in the south is predicted to get a few days of heavy snow and temperatures down to -10C. The Freeze up there is usually nearer mid-month but this might be enough for an early start.

Yep .. I am seeing early reports of Lake Effect snow from the Great Lakes also., for later this week.

Although winter is late in N A it looks like being plunged from Summer straight into winter, in one leap.

Masie sea ice extent continues to converge with the last 2 years  (which were good enough for the last decade).

image.thumb.png.bda87faf9eeba8bfadc24faf39ca7b67.png  

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
14 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep .. I am seeing early reports of Lake Effect snow from the Great Lakes also., for later this week.

Although winter is late in N A it looks like being plunged from Summer straight into winter, in one leap.

Masie sea ice extent continues to converge with the last 2 years  (which were good enough for the last decade).

image.thumb.png.bda87faf9eeba8bfadc24faf39ca7b67.png  

MIA

Already the Lake Effect is starting up -

image.thumb.png.f366439d88763b84dcd5d96d35b0e2eb.png  A more general snow covering now in the US, however  the boundary recedes slightly in Western Russia

 

image.thumb.png.44413abb761cafb46ffdf5612d77c908.png   .

Ice extent making usual gains today, whilst unsurprisingly a slight loss in Kara after its extreme freeze so far.

image.thumb.png.9ad68ae68c9600c32d455fab55b0d039.png

  

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

Heavy snow kicks off a good start for Hudson Bay. I think this is a couple of days earlier than typical and recent colder weather looks set to be sustained in Canada if not the USA.

20231030180000_WIS31C_0012838813.gif20231023180000_CVCSWCTHB_0012832389.gifWEBCLICKEN.gif

 

 

Edited by Aleman
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