Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks

[Rain All Night]

For those who have been looking at these charts for many more years than me, how plausible is it that the return to positive values in deep FI is just typical model behaviour of returning towards climatology, and won't actually verify?

[Mike Poole]

 Rain All Night I think it probably will return positive before a final warming  in April.  A period of reverse winds rarely lasts longer than a month, and so there’s still time left to return positive before the vortex peters out for the summer.

[Mike Poole]

Well looking at the zonal winds, I’m don’t think the required 20 days has elapsed since the winds went back positive at 10hPa 60N after the last ‘SSW’, (19th Feb looking at this chart).

So the upcoming evolution should be recorded as the aftermath of that SSW, not a new one.  Which seems wrong, but I believe those are the rules.

[summer blizzard]

 Mike Poole

And another which looks like it's struggling to downwell effectively.

[Rain All Night]

Why does any SSW downwell? Realising I don't know the basics here...

[Don]

On 06/03/2024 at 16:12, summer blizzard said:

And another which looks like it's struggling to downwell effectively.

I wonder what's preventing the strat warmings from downwelling properly this season?

[SqueakheartLW]

 Don

Wonder if its the same thing that has stalled the descent of the new WQBO.

It hasn't moved since it appeared back in October, very unusual for the WQBO which usually descends unhindered.

Maybe we could see a failure of the WQBO this time around.

[Don]

6 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Wonder if its the same thing that has stalled the descent of the new WQBO.

It hasn't moved since it appeared back in October, very unusual for the WQBO which usually descends unhindered.

Maybe we could see a failure of the WQBO this time around.

That's very interesting SqueakheartLW!  I did think that WQBO looked a little odd when Gavin Partridge did his Sunday roundup last week, however, it did not occur to me at the time that it might be failing!  Could it fail like two EQBO's have done since 2016?  Anything's possible these days with the Earth's climate being seemingly so out of kilter!

Edited March 11 by Don

[knocker]

The current warming at 10mb illustrated on the 00 at Orland in Norway

[Gray-Wolf]

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[summer blizzard]

Was wondering if there’s a record of average strength at 10hpa over winters as this would have to be on the weaker side.