Next drier than average month

[B87]

21 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

id be interested to know if 1995 was sunnier? May - End of Dec was sunny overall and summer was the sunniest i can remember ..1983 a close 2nd (for summer)

2003 was Heathrow's sunniest ever year, with 2003.5 hours.

I'll go with January. 2023 so far has only had February and May see below average rainfall. All the other months have been above or well above average. We are well overdue a very dry year. You have to go back to 2005 to see a very dry year here (450mm).

Edited November 3, 2023 by B87

[78/79]

After suffering rainfall of biblical proportions, should we get by some miracle , a few dry months next year. I hope to God we don't have to listen to some clown droning on about water shortages. 

[Summer8906]

On 02/11/2023 at 23:21, baddie said:

I voted for December, but I think it will still be duller than average. November could probably be average for rainfall, but not really dry. The last dry month was August for me (80% of average rain)

After Ciaran and today's low, and yet more unsettled weather to mid month (according to GFS 00z, for example) - the second half will have to be very dry indeed even to achieve that, I suspect!

I suspect November will end up wet to very wet, but perhaps not spectacularly so depending on whether there's a change mid-month or not.

Edited November 4, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 03/11/2023 at 13:34, baddie said:

For some reason, a dry and/or cold winter usually means a poor March and April

2022/23 had a decent winter, followed by an awful March and a mediocre April
2017/18 had a good winter, followed by a BFTE, then March and April were both poor (despite the heatwave in mid-April)
Same with the 6-month winter of 2012/13, which extended through March and into April, followed by a poor May then a "spring-like" June

For the oppposite
2013/14 were notoriously awful, but March was lovely, April was on the poor side, but mid-month was nice
2019/20 was another bad one and part of a 6 month "equinox to equinox" period of dross. But the spring was lovely from the lockdown onwards

The only deviods to those rules I can think of is 2014/15, which had a good winter, with a decent March and a lovely April, but the May was poor
 

IMX late winter (Feb) in particular seems to be closely related to the tendency of the following spring.

If Feb is cold, there seems to be a tendency for cold and/or wet weather to persist deep into spring. For example: 1979, 1983, 1986, 1994, 2013 and 2018 all did this to a greater or lesser extent.

If Feb is very mild but changeable, the spring is often warm or very warm (and usually dry and sunny as a consequence).

Mild and dry Februaries, however, seem to precede rather unsettled springs (e.g. 1993, 1998 and of course this year).

There are exceptions of course: for example Feb 1989 was mild and rather wet, and unusually such conditions persisted through March, and April was cold and wet. (Thankfully we then had a prolonged period of mostly fine weather lasting from the start of May to December 11th).

Edited November 4, 2023 by Summer8906

[baddie]

9 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

IMX late winter (Feb) in particular seems to be closely related to the tendency of the following spring.

If Feb is cold, there seems to be a tendency for cold and/or wet weather to persist deep into spring. For example: 1979, 1983, 1986, 1994, 2013 and 2018 all did this to a greater or lesser extent.

If Feb is very mild but changeable, the spring is often warm or very warm (and usually dry and sunny as a consequence).

Mild and dry Februaries, however, seem to precede rather unsettled springs (e.g. 1993, 1998 and of course this year).

There are exceptions of course: for example Feb 1989 was mild and rather wet, and unusually such conditions persisted through March, and April was cold and wet. (Thankfully we then had a prolonged period of mostly fine weather lasting from the start of May to December 11th).

You can count Feb 2019. As it was dry, sunny and springlike from after the 11th, though the first half of March was wet, but the second half was nice. The April that followed was then a sunnier and drier version of April 2018, followed by an average May

Edited November 4, 2023 by baddie

[baddie]

9 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

After Ciaran and today's low, and yet more unsettled weather to mid month (according to GFS 00z, for example) - the second half will have to be very dry indeed even to achieve that, I suspect!

I suspect November will end up wet to very wet, but perhaps not spectacularly so depending on whether there's a change mid-month or not.

The Met Office is saying that areas further south (e.g from Sheffield southwards) could be springiike during mid-month. Chilly nights, mild days and some sunshine. Spring-like Octobers/Novembers are more of a blessing than "unseasonal"

Edited November 4, 2023 by baddie

[Weather-history]

 

For the EWP, the number of top 10 driest months since and including 2000

Jan: 0

Feb: 0

Mar: 0

Apr: 3

May: 1

Jun: 1

Jul: 1

Aug: 1

Sep: 1

Oct: 0

Nov: 0

Dec: 0

8 in total

 

For the EWP, the number of top 10 wettest months since and including 2000

Jan: 2

Feb: 2

Mar: 2

Apr: 2

May: 1

Jun: 2

Jul: 0

Aug: 1

Sep:  0

Oct: 3

Nov: 3

Dec: 1

19 in total

 

Does feel that wetness has dominated dryness since 2000

 

 

[Summer of 95]

59 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

For the EWP, the number of top 10 driest months since and including 2000

Jan: 0

Feb: 0

Mar: 0

Apr: 3

May: 1

Jun: 1

Jul: 1

Aug: 1

Sep: 1

Oct: 0

Nov: 0

Dec: 0

8 in total

 

For the EWP, the number of top 10 wettest months since and including 2000

Jan: 2

Feb: 2

Mar: 2

Apr: 2

May: 1

Jun: 2

Jul: 0

Aug: 1

Sep:  0

Oct: 3

Nov: 3

Dec: 1

19 in total

 

Does feel that wetness has dominated dryness since 2000

 

 

Surprised Feb 2023 isn't a top-10 dry month

[Rain All Night]

Could January be about to live up to its poll result?

[reef]

The way January is going, it's going to have a total above the 1991-2020 average before the first week is out at this rate!

We've already had over 20mm and we're only just over 36 hours in!

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, reef said:

The way January is going, it's going to have a total above the 1991-2020 average before the first week is out at this rate!

We've already had over 20mm and we're only just over 36 hours in!

I've just twigged that the thread title says "drier than average month", not "prolonged dry/settled spell" like I was imagining, so never mind!

[baddie]

I can imagine that none of the voting options are valid now. March would probs have a dry second half but not a completely dry month, and I highly doubt April will be bone dry (Still plenty of pleasant weather). I think May will be the next proper dry month

Edited February 23 by baddie

[I remember Atlantic 252]

there won't be one

[Metwatch]

Has to be either in April or May, small chance in March but unlikely. Would be strange if there isn't one by summer.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Metwatch April ... Not an April shower to be seen ... They are a thing of the past too!

[B87]

February is the 9th month in a row with 50mm+ of rainfall in London, the joint longest stretch of 50mm months on record (equalled by May 1958 to Jan 1959).

[Summer8906]

January 2025.

Seriously, wondering whether to edit this and start again. (EDIT: See here - can we lock this thread?)

I created it out of frustration in November, little realising that the whole of autumn and winter would be wet and possibly the first third of spring too. I think I said February so frightening that even March could well be wet.

March not looking great unless you're in the east, and perhaps very poor in the west. This is the latest 16-30 day forecast:

Quote

Increasing likelihood that a more blocked weather pattern will develop with more settled conditions most likely affecting the east with winds favouring a more south or south-westerly direction mid-March, bringing most rainfall across western areas and largely drier to the east. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go.

Does look like, away from the east, we could be facing a perhaps record-breaking 9th consecutive wet month.

I'm surprised temps would be "near or slightly above normal" with this setup though: a south to south-westerly direction would surely result in silly-mild.

 

 

Edited February 24 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 baddie Mind you, the month doesn't have to be bone dry. It just has to be drier than average. So even 95% across England and Wales would count.

[baddie]

 Summer8906 With the SSW probably vanished out the forecast (Unless winter turns up in April), I can see something akin to March 2019 or 2020 (Wet first half, Dry second half)

[Summer8906]

 baddie Hope so, looks like the first half could be a write-off though the GFS 18z is better (GFS 00z today terrible though).

What is it with the first half of March that prevents it being settled these days? Last time we had a dry first half of March, was (IIRC) 2015. Before that, back to 1990 it used to be often settled at the start of March.

[baddie]

 Summer8906 Maybe 2021 to an extent?? First half was mostly dry, but as dull as March 2023. I often find early-March is dominated by Easterlies bringing cold and dull weather (2011, 2018, 2021, 2023)