Next drier than average month

[Summer8906]

See the poll. A follow up to a similar poll conducted 6 months ago. When do most people think that the next settled and dry month will be?

Try to answer honestly rather than ironically/pessimistically - main idea is to get people's honest thoughts on this!

[Rain All Night]

Here's why I've answered January: it's a gut feeling based on the way that mid-latitude blocking in January seems to have become a bit of a tradition in recent years...

Edited October 29, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Summer8906]

14 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Here's why I've answered January: it's a gut feeling based on the way that mid-latitude blocking in January seems to have become a bit of a tradition in recent years...

Could be. My (unscientific) feeling is that it's been a while since the last really zonal January (i.e. 2020, though as the charts above indicate it had a SW-ly bias) and thus I'm thinking that, in addition to the El Nino effect, Jan 2024 could be zonal, wet and windy.

But we've had 5 wet Octobers on the trot now, so why not 4 non-zonal Januaries I guess. (We managed a run of several non-zonal Januaries from 1977 to 1982, some featured wet and windy weather at times but none were locked-in zonality).

I must say that I do like late Januaries when it's frosty, sunny and settled. Even though it's not long after the solstice, you really notice the nights drawing out under such conditions. Hence late Jan 2022 and 2023 were especially good.

Re the poll as a whole, I note December is taking the lead. I certainly hope so - we need a break from this endless pervading damp.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[SunSean]

I'm thinking maybe we will get a pattern change some time in March. We've had some decent January & February weather recently so I would be surprised if we managed to get another settled & dry one of those. As for December, normally one of the most unsettled and dull months of the year (although December 2022 was quite enjoyable) I don't hold out any hope so March 2024 is my guess for a chance at the next settled/semi dry month.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am going for milder and wetter than average winter with very few in the way of cold and settled periods. I think March will then be mixed. So my vote is for deep into spring.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I am going for milder and wetter than average winter with very few in the way of cold and settled periods. I think March will then be mixed. So my vote is for deep into spring.

Hoping not! It would be an extraordinarily wet period if so.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

I’ve put January because I think it will either be blocked or a zonal month like 2005, which although often zonal was dry in the south.

Also, with the way patterns go these days, I wouldn’t be surprised if it stays wet for a while then a longer drier spell ensue.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I am going for milder and wetter than average winter with very few in the way of cold and settled periods. I think March will then be mixed. So my vote is for deep into spring.

Get lost Mrs! No one wants this

[raz.org.rain]

Supposedly the analogs favour a drier than average first half to next year in general? I'm sure I saw someone discuss how next year could be a much warmer 2003 repeat, which theoretically would need a dry spring to get going.

[Summer8906]

33 minutes ago, razorgrain said:

Supposedly the analogs favour a drier than average first half to next year in general? I'm sure I saw someone discuss how next year could be a much warmer 2003 repeat, which theoretically would need a dry spring to get going.

A 2003 repeat sounds good.

Jan - sunny, dry, variable temps

Feb - sunny, dry, variable temps

Mar - sunny, dry, warm

Apr - sunny, dry, variable temps until 20th, then dull and wet

May - dull and wet then hot and sunny in final week

June - warm, sunny but some short wet spells

July - unsettled start and end, hot sunny middle

August - sunny, record-breaking heat in first half. Pleasant, benign, unremarkable 2nd half

Sep - sunny, dry, warm

Oct - sunny, dry, variable temps

Nov - mild and dry becoming mild and wet

Dec - average temps, very variable

Definitely one of the better years and a whole lot better than 2023. The only poor spells of note, lasting more than around 10 days, were around 5 weeks from April 20 and the second half of November.

Hard to imagine it would be "much warmer" than 2003, as 2003 was already warm enough.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[SunSean]

6 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

A 2003 repeat sounds good.

Jan - sunny, dry, variable temps

Feb - sunny, dry, variable temps

Mar - sunny, dry, warm

Apr - sunny, dry, variable temps until 20th, then dull and wet

May - dull and wet then hot and sunny in final week

June - warm, sunny but some short wet spells

July - unsettled start and end, hot sunny middle

August - sunny, record-breaking heat in first half. Pleasant, benign, unremarkable 2nd half

Sep - sunny, dry, warm

Oct - sunny, dry, variable temps

Nov - mild and dry becoming mild and wet

Dec - average temps, very variable

Definitely one of the better years and a whole lot better than 2023. The only poor spells of note, lasting more than around 10 days, were around 5 weeks from April 20 and the second half of November.

Hard to imagine it would be "much warmer" than 2003, as 2003 was already warm enough.

I think it's about time we get another 2003. It's been a ridiculously long time since we had a whole year that sunny and pleasant!

[Summer8906]

12 minutes ago, SunSean said:

I think it's about time we get another 2003. It's been a ridiculously long time since we had a whole year that sunny and pleasant!

Indeed, I think 2022 in particular was a little overrated when it comes to the entire year, but still probably the best year (aside from 2018) in the past 10 years or so. Feb, May, June, and Sep were nothing special, November terrible, and half of each of Oct and Dec poor. The good months were basically Jan, Mar, Apr, July and August.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Get lost Mrs! No one wants this

I don't want it either. Just have a bad feeling.

I would love to have some snow and many crisp sunshine days. 

[MP-R]

31 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Indeed, I think 2022 in particular was a little overrated when it comes to the entire year, but still probably the best year (aside from 2018) in the past 10 years or so. Feb, May, June, and Sep were nothing special, November terrible, and half of each of Oct and Dec poor. The good months were basically Jan, Mar, Apr, July and August.

Nothing special temp wise, but gave 4 hours more of sunshine than July here. All 3 summer months over 200 hours for the first time since I started recording.

Edited October 30, 2023 by MP-R
Spelling

[Summer8906]

On 30/10/2023 at 17:47, MP-R said:

Nothing special temp wise, but gave 4 hours more of sunshine than July here. All 3 summer months over 200 hours for the first time since I started recording.

Surprised as the fine weather seemed to be restricted to the 2nd, 13th-17th, and 20th-22nd.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Summer8906

[Downburst]

Year so far for Ireland to end October. Can we make it 5 in a row. 

[MP-R]

5 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Surprised as the fine weather seemed to be restricted to the 2nd, 13th-17th, and 20th-22nd.

There you have my sunshine stats for the month. Having sunny low pressure spells helped. The first full week was quite Atlantic dominated but not without sunshine. Likewise, the last weekend had a low parked over us but was mainly sunny.

 

[wende123]

On 30/10/2023 at 16:07, SunSean said:

I think it's about time we get another 2003. It's been a ridiculously long time since we had a whole year that sunny and pleasant!

Yup I would happily vote for that right now.

Now, where did I put my snorkel and flippers?

[cheeky_monkey]

On 30/10/2023 at 10:07, SunSean said:

I think it's about time we get another 2003. It's been a ridiculously long time since we had a whole year that sunny and pleasant!

id be interested to know if 1995 was sunnier? May - End of Dec was sunny overall and summer was the sunniest i can remember ..1983 a close 2nd (for summer)

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

There you have my sunshine stats for the month. Having sunny low pressure spells helped. The first full week was quite Atlantic dominated but not without sunshine. Likewise, the last weekend had a low parked over us but was mainly sunny.

 

Thanks - also looks like the 11th and 12th were sunnier than the 13th and 15th where you were. Surprised at your low total for the 15th as that week was very sunny here. That said I think there was one day that week when there was a lot of mid-level cloud out west not going anywhere fast.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, Downburst said:

Year so far for Ireland to end October. Can we make it 5 in a row. 

Even if the second half of the month is bone dry I expect so!

[SunSean]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

id be interested to know if 1995 was sunnier? May - End of Dec was sunny overall and summer was the sunniest i can remember ..1983 a close 2nd (for summer)

Yeah 1995 wasn't too dissimilar to 2003 for my area. Both fantastic years with sunshine throughout. Another one of either of those years would be perfect.

[alexisj9]

Answering the thread title I think the next drier than avarage month will be December.

[baddie]

I voted for December, but I think it will still be duller than average. November could probably be average for rainfall, but not really dry. The last dry month was August for me (80% of average rain)

[baddie]

For some reason, a dry and/or cold winter usually means a poor March and April

2022/23 had a decent winter, followed by an awful March and a mediocre April
2017/18 had a good winter, followed by a BFTE, then March and April were both poor (despite the heatwave in mid-April)
Same with the 6-month winter of 2012/13, which extended through March and into April, followed by a poor May then a "spring-like" June

For the oppposite
2013/14 were notoriously awful, but March was lovely, April was on the poor side, but mid-month was nice
2019/20 was another bad one and part of a 6 month "equinox to equinox" period of dross. But the spring was lovely from the lockdown onwards

The only deviods to those rules I can think of is 2014/15, which had a good winter, with a decent March and a lovely April, but the May was poor
 

Edited November 3, 2023 by baddie