Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Chris.R]

GFS 6Z has gone too far now, needs to reverse this trend or we have to start worrying.

[jimben]

Temperature stayed above freezing until 6am and has remained there, currently -0.8c reaching a low of -2.0c at 08:43. Almost cloudless sunny blue skies with a breeze from the north east. Local summits frozen with a slight snow covering. 

[Chris.R]

15 minutes ago, Snowmad79 said:

What the GFS is showing by 144 hrs is crunch time. Make or break, if that makes it onto the 12z and into the more reliable time frames then it could be dissapointing. We've seen this many a times before so it shouldn't be a shock if it does happen. 

Hadn't seen 6Z when I wrote my post. Yep crunch time on that.

Edited January 9 by Chris.R

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Absolutely awful model IMO,and not for the fact it’s showing rubbish,every 48hrs it going from hero to Zero,this will revert back to what it was showing 48hrs ago in the next 24hrs,not that I would have much faith in it even if it showed Narnia.

Always makes me laugh when people say this, it really does.

You think it shows Bartlett high one run then northerlies the next. The reason for the changes are fairly simple, if the scandi trough gets too far west it interacts with the blocking over Greenland in a negative way which leads to consequences down the line, that how weather works and how an outlook can quickly change both ways.

[winterof79]

Up through Glossop and Buxton today to Sutton Common BT tower 

Wind chill ludicrous

[cheshire snow]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Always makes me laugh when people say this, it really does.

You think it shows Bartlett high one run then northerlies the next. The reason for the changes are fairly simple, if the scandi trough gets too far west it interacts with the blocking over Greenland in a negative way which leads to consequences down the line, that how weather works and how an outlook can quickly change both ways.

Well I’m glad I make you laugh then

let’s move on.

[Day 10]

11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

GFS 6Z has gone too far now, needs to reverse this trend or we have to start worrying.

I really wouldn't stress over the 6z, it's always crap.

[cheshire snow]

Just now, Day 10 said:

I really wouldn't stress over the 6z, it's always crap.

Are you allowed to say that 

take yourself to the naughty step

[Chris.R]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I really wouldn't stress over the 6z, it's always crap.

True but there isn't really a reason why it should be. anyway I need to stop  analysing each run again. That's what the addiction does I suppose. I start the chase for each cold spell saying "I will be objective and not over analyse each run" then look what happens lol

Edited January 9 by Chris.R

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

True but there is really a reason why it should be. anyway I need to stop  analysing each run again. That's what the addiction does I suppose. I start the chase for each cold spell saying "I will be objective and not over analyse each run" then look what happens lol

Fair enough. But you and I have been on here long enough to know FI especially during a possible cold spell is Day 5 or even earlier.

Just look how different Day 8 is between the ECM & GFS.

[cheshire snow]

17 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

GFS 6Z has gone too far now, needs to reverse this trend or we have to start worrying.

Sorry Chris I really have to disagree here.

i read through literally hundreds of posts in the last week,people saying until the ECM is on board nothing will happen,and guess what ECM this morning was a fantastic run,but now the GFS is having a wobble it’s panic stations in the mad thread and it’s all over,I think there is a reason the GFS is near the bottom of the pecking order in the stats.

[Chris.R]

5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Sorry Chris I really have to disagree here.

i read through literally hundreds of posts in the last week,people saying until the ECM is on board nothing will happen,and guess what ECM this morning was a fantastic run,but now the GFS is having a wobble it’s panic stations in the mad thread and it’s all over,I think there is a reason the GFS is near the bottom of the pecking order in the stats.

Yep you're probably right I just got panicked by it a bit. Probably everything still on track more or less.

[frosty ground]

8 out of 30 runs are not great for our region as per the image below

if we assume those runs are wrong then the average line plummets by about a 2.4C 

 

obviously if they are right the average increases by 4.4 aka no cold or snow 

[frosty ground]

If you remove the other side of the equation it looks a solid 7 day cold spell, 14 if you add this week in to

 

[Had Worse]

Boiler has just let go. Its raining in the hall.

Just heard a strange noise and went to investigate. 

Thankfully its just in the 7 year warranty. 

[Rush2019]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Up through Glossop and Buxton today to Sutton Common BT tower 

Wind chill ludicrous

Ooooh the wind chill will take the enamel off yer teeth up there, 1,300 or so feet asl.  Can see the tower from my back area.

Stunning clear skies and smiley sunshine, can't wait to be fit enough again to enjoy a few walks.

I've found some snow flakes, next Mon night.

[Chris.R]

GEFS are very encouraging. Sorting T850s by highest to lowest there are only a handful that stay above 0°C throughout mid next week. encouraged by that..

Edited January 9 by Chris.R

[WillinGlossop]

43 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Boiler has just let go. Its raining in the hall.

Just heard a strange noise and went to investigate. 

Thankfully its just in the 7 year warranty. 

Oh jeez how annoying… hopefully you can get sorted asap

been out chopping wood and gardening… brisk is the word ice on top of buckets left out for new years fireworks still… 2.2c out… windchill must be -5/-7c 

just made chicken and kofta kebabs for lunch 

Edited January 9 by WillinGlossop

[Had Worse]

6 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Oh jeez how annoying… hopefully you can get sorted asap

been out chopping wood and gardening… brisk is the word ice on top of buckets left out for new years fireworks still… 2.2c out… windchill must be -5/-7c 

just made chicken and kofta kebabs for lunch 

Got to give credit to Gas Care. They were here within 40 minutes. He said a flow control part had developed a pinhole leak that was spraying a fine jet of water within the cabinet. They have ordered the part and hopefully it will be fixed tomorrow or Thursday.

As is the case, I opened the windows to air the rooms and now its going to stay cold apart from the living room where there is a gas fire.

 

A quick browse through the mod thread and there are a number of posters with arrhythmia.

What will be will be. We don't get storms like  we used to but i'm not risking my health over that statistic.

[Geordiesnow]

2 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

Well I’m glad I make you laugh then

let’s move on.

Quite an achievement believe you me.

Your not the only one of course, I mentioned it in the model thread recently how a run is not showing what they want too see, it's always this run looks iffy, or they are skeptical of it. Any run is plausible but the details will always vary on the next run and that happens with any weather pattern.

It's always too easy to get sucked into seeing something and come to the conclusion it will happen that way especially if it's more of a negative run. 

In terms of our region, from the runs I have seen, then we could see some snow in this region especially those further south in the region, one potentially from cold air undercutting the cold front and the models hinting the northerly flow will back more WNW'ly and IF the cold air has made significant inroads down south then at least uppers of -8 could mean some convective snow showers from the Irish sea. 

[cheshire snow]

Well the latest Meto update is a cracking update seem to be going with the ECM and UKMO rather than the other model

[cheshire snow]

13 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Quite an achievement believe you me.

Your not the only one of course, I mentioned it in the model thread recently how a run is not showing what they want too see, it's always this run looks iffy, or they are skeptical of it. Any run is plausible but the details will always vary on the next run and that happens with any weather pattern.

It's always too easy to get sucked into seeing something and come to the conclusion it will happen that way especially if it's more of a negative run. 

In terms of our region, from the runs I have seen, then we could see some snow in this region especially those further south in the region, one potentially from cold air undercutting the cold front and the models hinting the northerly flow will back more WNW'ly and IF the cold air has made significant inroads down south then at least uppers of -8 could mean some convective snow showers from the Irish sea. 

Nope

yet again people put 2 and 2 together and get five if you go back a few posts I did state that the model isn’t good as it keeps flipping and flopping between good and bad(IMO)

we obviously disagree so please use the ignore function as I have done. 

 

[The Northern Ramper]

14 hours ago, Linda said:

Sorry but having been on the original bbc ‘snow watch’ forum (showing my age) and this whilst I agree there is a southern bias I don’t agree with the comments about nick, Nick Sussex was one of the original posters here (and done watch I think) and to be fair he does try to give a balanced analytical opinion even when it’s not going well for us coldies others like ste prudence will remember nick from the old days and agree with me.

Nick is a very knowledgeable poster and his info from the American forums can be invaluable.

He does love the drama though.

[Rain Lady]

4 hours ago, Snowmad79 said:

 mention spring at this time of year young lady!

An optimistic wind up.        Now sun's strength is lowering this afternoon it feels extra bitter.   Currently 2.4C. This wind gets everywhere.   Snowdrops are showing white buds but hiding  deep inside the plants.

[Thunder Snow]

Less said about the 6z the better, feels bitter out there.