Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[mattrout92]

This morning's ECM and now the 12z GFS have trended Wednesday's low back northwards today, another 50-100miles further North and we would be back in the game.

[freeze for all]

This is the meto take on things, the most likely scenario is the low further south with snow affecting the very south of England. Also said enough snow to disrupt but not copious amounts. The second scenario was further north and then most of south wales would be in the game, he also mentioned more disruptive snowfall if that was the case

 

Edited January 12 by freeze for all
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[keithlucky]

Still blood y confusion maybe snow from the south,But more promising it showers moving down Sunday Monday possible streamer setting up ,as previously shown on fax chart ,figures cross for a Pembroke DANGLER  .Cold North wind setting up.

Edited January 12 by keithlucky

[WINTRY WALES]

3 hours ago, freeze for all said:

This is the meto take on things, the most likely scenario is the low further south with snow affecting the very south of England. Also said enough snow to disrupt but not copious amounts. The second scenario was further north and then most of south wales would be in the game, he also mentioned more disruptive snowfall if that was the case

 

That was a few days ago don’t mislead people that’s not the current prognosis 

Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

That was a few days ago don’t mislead people that’s not the current prognosis 

Sorry my mistake it looks like it is from today don’t know where they are getting that from all models showing the low going through france

[Marcus_surfer]

I can tell why people are not happy in the mad thread, it looks likely now that the low will push into france and skirt the far south of the uk next week, thereafter it does at this stage, look likely that winds will turn more southerly by next weekend in the south but this is changing every hour

[snefnug]

12 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

That was a few days ago don’t mislead people that’s not the current prognosis 

Sorry my mistake it looks like it is from today don’t know where they are getting that from all models showing the low going through france

Wut?  Just been on YouTube Met  and it’s the same and dated today, so could @WINTRY WALES explain please?  

[WINTRY WALES]

14 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Wut?  Just been on YouTube Met  and it’s the same and dated today, so could @WINTRY WALES explain please?  

I apologised…..thought it was old news! My mistake….fingers crossed guys

[keithlucky]

3 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Wut?  Just been on YouTube Met  and it’s the same and dated today, so could @WINTRY WALES explain please?  

It is today,it shows shower activity moving south so more organised snow showers Sunday Monday morning. IF front from the South can get further north, interact with showers from the North we could see increased snow.Intesting radar watching ahead! Enjoy.          Wintry Wales they have computers information which we haven't got access to plus the most important experience.

[freeze for all]

35 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

That was a few days ago don’t mislead people that’s not the current prognosis 

Sorry my mistake it looks like it is from today don’t know where they are getting that from all models showing the low going through france

It looks like it's from today because it is from today

[keithlucky]

32 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

I can tell why people are not happy in the mad thread, it looks likely now that the low will push into france and skirt the far south of the uk next week, thereafter it does at this stage, look likely that winds will turn more southerly by next weekend in the south but this is changing every hour

With strat warming nobody knows what happening let's concentrate in what's happening the next 3 to5 days. Let's see if we can get some snow!

Edited January 12 by keithlucky

[bradymk]

The low pressure from the south west does look unlikely now in to affect Wales (disruptively anyway). The MetO have it most likely affecting far southern England in their video with the more northern track affecting Wales less likely. Since the video earlier the model output bar GFS, has also trended it further south but time for it to change.

I do understand the frustration about the models looking mainly dry for inland areas. However, it looks like a really decent dangler setting up Monday.

A direct northerly at first so likely affecting Pembrokeshire / West Carmarthenshire Monday daytime. Monday morning will likely be sleet / wintry showers on low ground but the arctic air arrives for the afternoon and evening. UKV shows the showers turning to snow by around 3pm Monday.

Later Monday into Tuesday it turns more North Westerly, liking changing the line of showers and bringing a streamer overnight through parts of Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire down into the Swansea area instead. The north westerly bringing frequent heavy showers for north Wales too on the UKV overnight Monday.

Dangler Mon Aft - snow showers Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire

Monday Night - snow showers more widespread as winds go more NW

 

I think we’ll have more chances later in the week too, but the models are changing so much, so probably best to revisit end of the week in a few days

[keithlucky]

1 minute ago, bradymk said:

The low pressure from the south west does look unlikely now in to affect Wales (disruptively anyway). The MetO have it most likely affecting far southern England in their video with the more northern track affecting Wales less likely. Since the video earlier the model output bar GFS, has also trended it further south but time for it to change.

I do understand the frustration about the models looking mainly dry for inland areas. However, it looks like a really decent dangler setting up Monday.

A direct northerly at first so likely affecting Pembrokeshire / West Carmarthenshire Monday daytime. Monday morning will likely be sleet / wintry showers on low ground but the arctic air arrives for the afternoon and evening. UKV shows the showers turning to snow by around 3pm Monday.

Later Monday into Tuesday it turns more North Westerly, liking changing the line of showers and bringing a streamer overnight through parts of Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire down into the Swansea area instead. The north westerly bringing frequent heavy showers for north Wales too on the UKV overnight Monday.

Dangler Mon Aft - snow showers Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire

Monday Night - snow showers more widespread as winds go more NW

 

I think we’ll have more chances later in the week too, but the models are changing so much, so probably best to revisit end of the week in a few days

Yes we could get widespread covering in Wales.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Mid and East Wales less likely to see any snow based off current output. Still time for the low to move north though.

[bradymk]

Just now, keithlucky said:

Yes we could get widespread covering in Wales.

Agree. MetOffice have up to 2cm Monday for North & West Wales, 5cm higher ground.

I imagine a yellow snow & ice warning will go out over the weekend for Monday for West and North Wales from the showers (if current output stays the same). Mon night into Tuesday too.

I reckon that warning will almost mirror this map from today

[Marcus_surfer]

Of course nothing can be ruled out next week, its been a tough few days model watching for sure. Interesting how metoffice have been lowering max temperatures every day since monday, indeed whats looking more nailed on now is some snow showers affecting areas exposed to the northerly. Im hoping the pembrokeshire dangler gets into full swing, its delivered quite large amounts before in the past, its however not good for east wales.

[WINTRY WALES]

9 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Yes we could get widespread covering in Wales.

How the heck is that widespread??

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

How the heck is that widespread??

I agree only mentions West Wales.

[bradymk]

7 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Mid and East Wales less likely to see any snow based off current output. Still time for the low to move north though.

Yes it’s looking mainly dry for us at the moment which is a shame. However I think showers will likely move fairly far inland on Monday Night so worth keeping an eye on that.

Wednesday’s low looks likely to miss now but it may still skirt the far south of Wales. Not totally a done deal yet

For me, best chances for East Wales may be Thursday Friday once the low heights and uppers return later Wednesday. However we won’t know for a few days yet.

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I agree only mentions West Wales.

We see many times showers merge to give longer spells of snow ,as streamer develops.-8 uppers encorages development of showers 

Edited January 12 by keithlucky

[Penfoel]

5 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I agree only mentions West Wales.

Well that means me ...

And the livestock. Best get feeders and hay out for the national trust ponies! 

Extra fodder costs ... this info is really important to us. 

Then there are these clowns ..

.

[DeepSnow]

For now im going to keep my expectations low for snowfall here. Northerly winds are no good for my location and the low looks going to far south. It will be a real shame to have this cold weather without snow but it seems like that is most likely for SE Wales. Still chance for change over next few days though. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

22 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

For now im going to keep my expectations low for snowfall here. Northerly winds are no good for my location and the low looks going to far south. It will be a real shame to have this cold weather without snow but it seems like that is most likely for SE Wales. Still chance for change over next few days though. 

It's a pity that this cold spell if you can call it that is going to only last around a week when models were showing it being long lasting days ago. Nevermind, at least we can save on our heating bills when the Atlantic train rolls in next weekend. .

[Cymro]

Keep away from the model thread rhis morning if you want to retain your sanity. Never have I seen it so bad! Quite pathetic and childish in fact! 

We will see plenty of snow showers in Wales this week, Im expecting a few surprises everywhere with the nature of this northerly flow. Don't be fooled even in Eastern Wales, Northerlies often produce larger snow totals than easterlies when you get troughs and occluded fronts appearing within 12 hour time frames. 

Being on these foruns for nearly 18 years, the overreacting in the mod thread is nothing new but the standard of discussion this year is atrocious. The cold spell won't break down on Friday, it's not a toppler and the models will be very volatile between now and then. Expect drastic changes at short time frames that can extend the cold substantially! 

And to remind us all we've had well over a week now of below average temperatures, only yesterday did we reach our highest temperature of the week at 4°c. Ditches, ground and pond frozen solid since last Saturday. Any snow should readily settle next week. 

Gan bwyll a daliwch ati! Mae'r eira ar ddod! 

Edited January 13 by Cymro

[bradymk]

Morning, still looking good for snow showers North & West Wales Sunday night - Wednesday. 

Some showers moving into North Wales late Sunday. Then a Pembrokeshire Dangler looks likely to set up Monday, turning north westerly into Monday evening and overnight, resulting in it affecting areas further east - Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire, Swansea if the showers push through.

For those of us in Mid, E, SE Wales, I think we’ll just need to see how far inland the showers do come and their intensity. Wednesdays low looks unlikely now and the models are all agreeing (for now) of a breakdown of the very cold air on Friday. It’s a shame but I think the bigger build up and the downgrades are overriding the fact that we still have a cold week to come and will have conditions conductive to low level snow.

It’s disappointing overall given what it could have been but let’s see what happens.

Edit - looking at the models again, the Dangler and North Wales showers are likely to also make a comeback Thursday potentially, after the milder sector moves through and the cold uppers move back south. Something to watch..

Edited January 13 by bradymk

[bradymk]

6z UKMO showing those showers early Tuesday morning.