SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[Tom Montalbano]

30 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Snow gone cold gone tears just starting lol

Oh dear, Lass.

Is it a case of Wuthering Withering Heights around Greenland, as this Lady once sung about?

You might need your Earplugs:

Well "our" Kate was born just over 6 miles East of my location.

Oh Heathcliff, has the thin Lady just cleared her throat and sung time on this Winter?

Regards,

Tom Q. 

Edited January 12 by Tom Quintavalle

[winterfreak]

Well after an intense week or two of epic runs and so on, it looks like another case of the UK snatching defeat from the jaws of victory lol. Refuse to get excited anymore. Prefer to see what actually falls out of the sky. Fingers crossed 

[Sparky68]

The MAD Rollercoaster is on the up again this morning grasping at slim chances of Snow for the South.  Those guys must be emotional wrecks!

[Tom Montalbano]

10 hours ago, Vortex3929 said:

Thank you @Tom Quintavalle for that explanation as that has been explained in a way I understand, and has been insightful. I appreciate that! 

@TN9 it's interesting that you mention Summer and the difficulties for storms. If im able to remember correctly you arent in Lee of any hills which would kill off any storm potential? And going by Tom's explaining of a maritime influence for our region, I would've thought that moist air would assist with storms, would it not?. Unless, ironically  - it's considered *too* moist and needs that dry air intrusion, and / or lift that comes from the downs (or the other side of the flipping M4 again!!). All this being based on purely topography and not a cold front assisting the lift and triggering storms (ie, spanish plumes)!

Plus it does seem, again - if my memory good enough, that storms do seem to be more frequent further north too (east anglia and up towards east anglia / Lincolnshire). Granted, Londons own urban heat island has an effect there of course I suspect

Much thanks, Vortex3929.

Just a P.S. to my explanation. The "Channel Low" that resulted in the Snowstorm that struck our Region on the Evening of 30th December 1978, was pretty unusual with regard to its shape. Its centre was elongated and managed to maintain that shape, as it moved, along the English Channel:

Therefore, the flow remained in the East, from a frigid Continent.

I collected Newspaper cuttings of many severe Wintry outbreaks over our Region, and maximum temperatures in Cities and Towns the other side of the North Sea, were well below freezing on the preceding Friday and a few hours, before the Snowstorm struck.

What tends to happen when an area of Low Pressure approaches from the S.W. and engages bitter air on its Northern flank, the Ppn may start off as Snow but if the Low Pressure has more of a "Bowling Ball" shape, the flow will veer more to a S.E. or S.

This will result in Southern areas of the U.K., obviously including our Region, being infiltrated by milder air from the English Channel. 

And like Anne Elk below, that's the theory anyway, ahem!!

Lows approaching from the S.W. are normally round and NOT thin and elongated, like the Channel Low of 30th December, 1978.

Meanwhile, the Low Forecast for next Week and possibly cause some disruptive Weather, just to prove me wrong has developed that elongated shape but has gone all "shy" on us, and disappeared over France:

   

Therefore, it could well remain mainly dry but cold next Week, until a possible warm up next Weekend. 

Regards,

Tom Q. 

Edited January 12 by Tom Quintavalle

[snowblind]

11 hours ago, jright35 said:

Amazed how quiet it is in here! Appreciate there’s uncertainty but there’s a chance. ️

As others have pointed out, what was highlighted as a small possibility on the met office 10 day trends a couple of days ago, seems to be happening. The low pressure system going into France and taking the snow risk for us with it. So at this stage cold and dry before warming up. Still nearly a week away so still time for the low pressure to move North again but seems to be trending in the wrong direction ATM.

[throwoff]

Looking more likely this is a no show sadly. 

Met updates over the weekend are what we need to look out for, but I have a feeling the low is slipping south.

[Polaris]

Absolutely no surprise the snow risk has faded for our region next week.

As with the beginning of last December, with the LOW going into France, it does look quite a dry cold spell. At least we get another week with the ground to dry out.

[snowblind]

15 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Looking more likely this is a no show sadly. 

Met updates over the weekend are what we need to look out for, but I have a feeling the low is slipping south.

Looks like the operational runs for all the models are pretty dry but there seem to be quite a few of the ensemble members that have more precipitation around so sending the low pressure further north. All is not lost quite yet perhaps.

Like you say, keep an eye on the met office updates and we'll know what the pros are thinking but still looks like quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of the low next week.

This the ensemble graph for the latest ECM run. You can see the precipitation spikes around the 17th along the bottom. Some ensemble members must take the low pretty for north as they introduce milder air as well 

Edited January 12 by snowblind

[throwoff]

2 hours ago, snowblind said:

Looks like the operational runs for all the models are pretty dry but there seem to be quite a few of the ensemble members that have more precipitation around so sending the low pressure further north. All is not lost quite yet perhaps.

Like you say, keep an eye on the met office updates and we'll know what the pros are thinking but still looks like quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of the low next week.

This the ensemble graph for the latest ECM run. You can see the precipitation spikes around the 17th along the bottom. Some ensemble members must take the low pretty for north as they introduce milder air as well 

Going to be interesting to see which models come out of this with egg on their face to be honest. The ECM seems to still fancy it but they are looking like the only one...

[lassie23]

was the gfs created by Darren Bett?

[Dami]

it's all very meh

[lassie23]

15 minutes ago, Dami said:

it's all very meh

I just saw the BBC forecast, outbreaks of meh merging into longer spells of meh into next week

[Dami]

Just now, lassie23 said:

I just saw the BBC forecast, outbreaks of meh merging into longer spells of meh into next week

meh

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Dami said:

meh

further meh expected through the rest of winter

[MAF]

[Dami]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

further meh expected through the rest of winter

yeah not looking amazing. zzzz

[lassie23]

Just now, Dami said:

yeah not looking amazing. zzzz

with thunderstorms galore in Smarch

[Dami]

Just now, lassie23 said:

with thunderstorms galore in Smarch

spring....yeah

then too hot summer, with no storms either

then wind storms in October.

meh

[lassie23]

Just now, Dami said:

spring....yeah

then too hot summer, with no storms either

then wind storms in October.

meh

then atlantic meh november to feb and so on  and so forth 

[Dami]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

then atlantic meh november to feb and so on  and so forth 

would be nice to have a proper season at the right time of year.

[Snowangel-MK]

And the prize for the most ramped up forecast goes to the Scandinavian snow beast

 

……however it is going to be cold next week   we know that but then it is winter

 

 (I do live about 50 miles north of the M4 so you never know)  

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Snowangel-MK said:

And the prize for the most ramped up forecast goes to the Scandinavian snow beast

 

……however it is going to be cold next week   we know that but then it is winter

 

 (I do live about 50 miles north of the M4 so you never know)  

an act of cod is needed to bring us a big freeze 

[Lampostwatcher]

We all have a chance ot will be cold enough from monday to friday for ppn to be snow or will be a case of radar watching 

[Dami]

meh

anyway dami has left the conversation

have a great day all

[throwoff]

Think I might open the emergency gin tonight.