SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[MAF]

That reminds me, I need to replace mine 

[alexisj9]

6 hours ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

Much thanks, Vortex3929.

Just a P.S. to my explanation. The "Channel Low" that resulted in the Snowstorm that struck our Region on the Evening of 30th December 1978, was pretty unusual with regard to its shape. Its centre was elongated and managed to maintain that shape, as it moved, along the English Channel:

Therefore, the flow remained in the East, from a frigid Continent.

I collected Newspaper cuttings of many severe Wintry outbreaks over our Region, and maximum temperatures in Cities and Towns the other side of the North Sea, were well below freezing on the preceding Friday and a few hours, before the Snowstorm struck.

What tends to happen when an area of Low Pressure approaches from the S.W. and engages bitter air on its Northern flank, the Ppn may start off as Snow but if the Low Pressure has more of a "Bowling Ball" shape, the flow will veer more to a S.E. or S.

This will result in Southern areas of the U.K., obviously including our Region, being infiltrated by milder air from the English Channel. 

And like Anne Elk below, that's the theory anyway, ahem!!

Lows approaching from the S.W. are normally round and NOT thin and elongated, like the Channel Low of 30th December, 1978.

Meanwhile, the Low Forecast for next Week and possibly cause some disruptive Weather, just to prove me wrong has developed that elongated shape but has gone all "shy" on us, and disappeared over France:

   

Therefore, it could well remain mainly dry but cold next Week, until a possible warm up next Weekend. 

Regards,

Tom Q. 

Just to mention cold has definitely not gone on those charts, so basically people are moaning cause it's gonna be cold and sunny. Strange people as that's actually good weather for winter.

[snowblind]

GFS 0600 run still cold out to about the 22nd. Might extend by a day or 2 as usually happens. Some of the ensemble members showing precipitation on 17th/18th so some are still seeing the low pressure heading further North. Obviously there's much more precipitation about when it will be too warm for snow.

The ECM 0600 run has the 17th/18th just in range and that is also showing some precipitation for those dates from it's ensembles so maybe not a done deal yet.

Edited January 12 by snowblind

[alexisj9]

5 hours ago, Polaris said:

Absolutely no surprise the snow risk has faded for our region next week.

As with the beginning of last December, with the LOW going into France, it does look quite a dry cold spell. At least we get another week with the ground to dry out.

Nothing dry about last December's cold, many places in the se got snow.

5 hours ago, snowblind said:

Looks like the operational runs for all the models are pretty dry but there seem to be quite a few of the ensemble members that have more precipitation around so sending the low pressure further north. All is not lost quite yet perhaps.

Like you say, keep an eye on the met office updates and we'll know what the pros are thinking but still looks like quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of the low next week.

This the ensemble graph for the latest ECM run. You can see the precipitation spikes around the 17th along the bottom. Some ensemble members must take the low pretty for north as they introduce milder air as well 

Well we certainly don't want the latter, but north enough for snow would be nice.

[snowblind]

Latest met office outlook is a bit of downgrade in terms of snowfall next week but the chance is still there for the south. Also could be some snow around during the transition to less cold weather next weekend.

"Wednesday 17 Jan - Friday 26 Jan
Staying very cold through next week. Northerly winds will bring snow showers inland at times, these most frequent across northern Scotland. Many inland areas will be mainly dry with a good deal of clear/bright weather. During Wednesday there is a chance of an area of snow moving across parts of southern England and Wales for a time though confidence is currently low in the behaviour of this system. Towards the end of the week or more likely over next weekend, the start of a transition back to less cold conditions is likely as Atlantic systems start to arrive from the west brining spells of rain and strong winds. Whilst conditions should gradually turn milder, this transition brings the chance of spells of snow."

Edited January 12 by snowblind

[Donna3397]

Well meteo have upgraded my forecast from rain to sleet now on Wednesday, I guess that’s something

[MAF]

8 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

Well meteo have upgraded my forecast from rain to sleet now on Wednesday, I guess that’s something

they've taken away my sleet symbol and given it to you i think

[Donna3397]

1 hour ago, MAF said:

they've taken away my sleet symbol and given it to you i think

If we get snow I will be shocked, I’m right on the coast. 

[snowblind]

Latest icon has moved the low pressure further north for wednesday. Still not far enough but now it's just off the south coast instead of northern France.

GFS further north than icon running the precipitation along the South coast then up across Kent where it is heaviest.

Still a long way to run on this one. Now watch the ECM run the low pressure through Spain.

Edited January 12 by snowblind

[Snowangel-MK]

I’m not even going to look again until Sunday, way too many changes between now and then - it’s going to be cold and dry and I’ll take that - I’m hoping to be well enough to get outdoors  for some fresh air by next week - I’ve spent most of this year stuck inside feeling poorly

[MAF]

2 minutes ago, Snowangel-MK said:

I’m not even going to look again until Sunday, way too many changes between now and then - it’s going to be cold and dry and I’ll take that - I’m hoping to be well enough to get outdoors  for some fresh air by next week - I’ve spent most of this year stuck inside feeling poorly

 Get well soon

[NewEra21]

Hopefully that low can push up far enough north to give those further south something midweek next week. Otherwise it’s looking very meh in terms of snow potential for the region.

Northerlies never really cut it this far south, unless we can get a trough unexpectedly coming down in the flow.

This week just gone looked far more exciting with the Easterly flow at the beginning of the week.

[Sparky68]

Meanwhile in Norway

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DP-PsVZKxVo

[3cats]

I’ve just had a look and the weekend looks *reasonable and the overnight on Monday into Tuesday morning saying it feeling like -8.
 

The nearly 9 year old is desperate for snow and keeps asking Alexa, she’s told him tonight that there’s a 76% chance on Wednesday leading to a snowfall of 1.6cm

*reasonable for this time of the year, that is! 

[Jason T]

Well definitely going to be bitterly cold come Monday' bbc just stated Snow chance for Tuesday into Wednesday ' Streamer ?' I think at least we still have a good 6 to 7weeks left. Everything still to play for.

[Lord Grogon]

God it’s hard work in the MAD thread.

They are very good at collectively talking up the doom and gloom. You’d think we were looking at a week of Tutg rain.

Think I need a stiff drink..

[Bogman]

1 minute ago, Lord Grogon said:

God it’s hard work in the MAD thread.

They are very good at collectively talking up the doom and gloom. You’d think we were looking at a week of Tutg rain.

Think I need a stiff drink..

Unfortunately, it’s like the old “Bullseye” saying, (target audience here) - “look what you could have won”.

A veil was drawn back onto Narnia, but has been torn away.

That saying, the mood swings are hilarious.

[Arrows1986]

God I've not posted in months. All I'll say is it's the start of January. We still have two months of winter so I wouldn't worry. A friend of mine lives in Calgary and it's -35 . That's crazy. The weather forecast for next week will change as we get closer so not stress

[Sparky68]

5 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

God I've not posted in months. All I'll say is it's the start of January. We still have two months of winter so I wouldn't worry. A friend of mine lives in Calgary and it's -35 . That's crazy. The weather forecast for next week will change as we get closer so not stress

Take a look at the Norway video I posted above, thats crazy weather.

[Arrows1986]

3 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Take a look at the Norway video I posted above, thats crazy weather.

Wow now that's ridiculous. This country would grind to a halt. We did with 5cm not let alone 5 metres. I think we need to be careful what we wish for . I prefer summer but even then as you know where you're from...us in the east and southeast get extremely hot and suffer with bad storms. It'll only get worse. Greta may have spent most of her lunch breaks shouting about global warming but she has a point 

[lawrenk]

Can only be a matter of time before the first “winter’s over” post appears on the main thread. My money’s on the middle of next week.

[Sparky68]

13 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Can only be a matter of time before the first “winter’s over” post appears on the main thread. My money’s on the middle of next week.

Yeh wont be long

16 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

Wow now that's ridiculous. This country would grind to a halt. We did with 5cm not let alone 5 metres. I think we need to be careful what we wish for . I prefer summer but even then as you know where you're from...us in the east and southeast get extremely hot and suffer with bad storms. It'll only get worse. Greta may have spent most of her lunch breaks shouting about global warming but she has a point 

Good old Fen snow Shield lol

[snowblind]

So the ECM did send the low pressure further south along the north coast of France. So GFS the only one that gives our region a sniff of snow next week.

Wait and see I guess still along way off and things could change for the better in terms of snow.

Looks like we have a frosty cold week in store at least.

[Sparky68]

I wont hold my breath.

[Wilko999]

41 minutes ago, snowblind said:

So the ECM did send the low pressure further south along the north coast of France. So GFS the only one that gives our region a sniff of snow next week.

Wait and see I guess still along way off and things could change for the better in terms of snow.

Looks like we have a frosty cold week in store at least.

ooo frost watch..how very exciting lol I'm hoping we get some kind of reversal given it's still 5 days away but id does look like the writing's on the wall