SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[Neilsouth]

The model section is so frustrating, posts that are completely on topic such as talking about dart board lows and the GFS at the time 12Z should be binned and it gets deleted. But people posting "

God almighty pass me the rope!" and it stays! Much prefer the regionals so we can look forward to snow.. or not 

[Matty88]

History tells me that it would be foolish to write off snow chances for the rest of winter yet given it’s still January…. However next week is presently appalling for snow prospects in our neck of the woods

 

However at least it’ll be sunny!!  

[lassie23]

Winter is over in the MOD thread all the models are dumping the cold in favour of Atlantic-driven warmth. I am sticking with the October Fog Index.

[Essexweather28]

I think the trouble is we would be better if here with a scandi high unless I have it wrong ? , we need easterly or north easterly winds, a northerly is more often than not a poor direction for any snow for us down this way 

[snowblind]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Winter is over in the MOD thread all the models are dumping the cold in favour of Atlantic-driven warmth. I am sticking with the October Fog Index.

It goes from winter is over to a new ice age cometh and back again, usually on the same day.

[Cableguy]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Winter is over in the MOD thread all the models are dumping the cold in favour of Atlantic-driven warmth. I am sticking with the October Fog Index.

It could be snowing outside their window but they'd still be debating charts 10 days away over there, it's very odd.

[Donna3397]

I love snow and would really like to see some but I have to say the cold that we’ve had the last days has really go into my bones, lol,  sounds  like I’m eighty years old.  If I’m cold and in my thirties what must a ninety year old be feeling? There are families with small children really suffering because of the cold because they can’t afford heating. Most of the week I was sat under a blanket in a jacket while I was working just because I knew the heating would need to be on for my children in the evening and we are all having to cut back. I’m sorry to be a bit morbid but we get excited about the cold and the model thread is now going mad because it looks like it’s a no go but there could be a lot of people elderly that wouldn’t be able to cope  nearly 14000 people died last winter. 
   I’m not trying to preach but I just wish people could see the wider picture, especially on the model thread.  I just don’t like how they get so nasty with each other. I will be happy either way, especially if it goes up to 35 degrees and sun.  
P.S I really like snow to and get very excited

Edited January 13 by Donna3397

[lassie23]

38 minutes ago, snowblind said:

It goes from winter is over to a new ice age cometh and back again, usually on the same day.

[Donna3397]

The models don’t seem to have a clue what’s going on and that’s their job lol 

[lassie23]

11 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

The models don’t seem to have a clue what’s going on and that’s their job lol 

If anyone else did their job like the models, they would get size twelves up the weeble

[Donna3397]

lol 

it feels like they went down the pub the last few nights lol

[lassie23]

10 hours ago, Matty88 said:

History tells me that it would be foolish to write off snow chances for the rest of winter yet given it’s still January…. However next week is presently appalling for snow prospects in our neck of the woods

 

However at least it’ll be sunny!!  

It looks sunny before the cool spell then vanishes, typical northerly wind set up.

10 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

lol 

it feels like they went down the pub the last few nights lol

They do go on about pub runs in there whatever that is lol.

[80sWeather]

Lovely sunny days ahead despite no snow forecast will make the most of it before the wet returns next weekend

[snowblind]

GFS 0600 run moves the system on Wednesday further north running along the South coast and clipping into Kent.

The icon 0600 keeps it in northern France.

[lassie23]

Just now, snowblind said:

GFS 0600 run moves the system on Wednesday further north running along the South coast and clipping into Kent.

The icon 0600 keeps it in northern France.

Do any of them take it to northern Africa

[Froze were the Days]

Very glum in the mod thread ...raging zonality after this much heralded cold spell which will equate to some frosts and sunshine (yay!) in this neck of the woods.

So much for the meto forecast of a period of somewhat milder conditions and possibility of more block conditions come February again...from experience once we've had some form of cold in January and the Atlantic then ramps up it usually stays that way for most of the rest of Winter but then again Matt Hugo was saying this wasn't a normal winter and the second half of it looked very interesting in terms blocking scenarios backed up  by Glosea/EC/CFS seasonal models. (I'll hold him and them to that)

[snowblind]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Do any of them take it to northern Africa

Not yet but give it time.

[Froze were the Days]

I said a week or so ago I'll be donning my Pat Jennings gloves...

[snowblind]

2.5 and sunny today. Much better than the last couple of days. According to the forecast on the met office site it should currently be 4 and overcast.

[Keefo]

Overcast here and 1.5C. Feels raw.

[Sparky68]

Personally with a weekly 400 mile commute I'm not overly bothered if we don't get snow,. Beautiful if you don't have to drive a great deal in it, pain in the *** otherwise. 

[Stroudley]

Surprised by just how cold and raw it feels today, with virtually no wind. 

1.7C at the moment, the lowest for 24 hours. 

[Methuselah]

I think there's an outbreak of confirmation bias infecting the MAD thread? 

[snowblind]

The 1200 ICON has shifted the precipitation and associated snow risk slightly further north again putting the south coast and Kent in the firing line again. 

Be interesting to see if the other models follow this.

[Challock Weather]

25 minutes ago, snowblind said:

The 1200 ICON has shifted the precipitation and associated snow risk slightly further north again putting the south coast and Kent in the firing line again. 

Be interesting to see if the other models follow this.

Yes currently some real differences in that low and other interest towards Greenland on current ICON. Let's see where GFS and ECM go from here. Extension to the cold...we will see