Christmas week weather 25-31 more likely not consistently cold?

[damianslaw]

An observation of recent years at least, and I think most of the last 40 years is the tendency for what I class 'the christmas week 25-31 Dec', to lack consistently cold weather.

The only years that buck this statement being 1985, 1992, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2009. Nothing since. That is a strike rate of less than 25%. 

Some years brought cold at points or part of the time, 1993, 2003, 2004, 2010,(broke on the 27th), 2014, 2020.

2023 looks to continue the theme. 

The week before christmas even less cold!

Second half of Dec consequently the least likely period of winter to bring consistent cold, makes sense as the PV and zonal winds reach their peak, by Jan SSW's can kick them into touch and blocking highs tend to hold there own. Christmas arrives at the worse point of winter for cold weather. 

[Summer8906]

I'd tend to agree. I'd add first half of January to that too, which seems to be mild, wet and windy around 50% of the time and mildish most years.

Significant cold weather in the first half of Jan happened only in 2021, 2013, 2010, 2009, 1997, 1987 and 1985 over the same time period. Additionally, 2019, 2017, 2003, 2001, 1992 and 1991 had some (non continuous) periods of cold and frosty weather but the rest were mostly varying degrees of mild with only brief transient cold spells.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Summer8906

[I remember Atlantic 252]

last snow on Jan 1st here was '97, normally a very mild period 1-15 Jan

[Alexis]

Someone made the point in the model thread how December temps SSTs do take a tumble after the 20th, especially into January and how Christmas Day would be snowier 10 days later.

Look at New York - snow is very rare on Christmas Day, despite what you'd think.

[MP-R]

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

Someone made the point in the model thread how December temps SSTs do take a tumble after the 20th, especially into January and how Christmas Day would be snowier 10 days later.

Look at New York - snow is very rare on Christmas Day, despite what you'd think.

Wow interesting. Our last white Christmas is more recent than theirs!

[Summer of 95]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Wow interesting. Our last white Christmas is more recent than theirs!

I was just going to say that! 2010 and it was more than 3 inches as well. Last "new snowfall" 2004, more recent as well.

It seems like they are having a very long snowless streak over there at the moment as well

 

[SqueakheartLW]

On 16/12/2023 at 11:42, Summer8906 said:

I'd tend to agree. I'd add first half of January to that too, which seems to be mild, wet and windy around 50% of the time and mildish most years.

Significant cold weather in the first half of Jan happened only in 2021, 2013, 2010, 2009, 1997, 1987 and 1985 over the same time period. Additionally, 2019, 2017, 2003, 2001, 1992 and 1991 had some (non continuous) periods of cold and frosty weather but the rest were mostly varying degrees of mild with only brief transient cold spells.

I think I need to correct you here.

January 2013 was a tale of two halves but a colder second half, not the first. Generally mild up to around the 13th, then the cold weather kicked in and was generally on and off from mid January 2013 until early April 2013

January 2021 wasn't overly cold, nothing that I would call significant and the month overall was only a very small margin below average CET wise.

I would agree with 2010, 2009, 1997, 1987 and 1985 though for first half of January cold

[I remember Atlantic 252]

'95 for me! snowfest Sat 30th Dec, certainly cannot say same nowadays Sat 30th Dec

[Thundery wintry showers]

Since the 1940s it seems to me that there have been two periods in which cold Christmas-New Year periods were quite common: 1961-1970, and then 1992-2010. Between 1990 and 2010, December was the one month that bucked the general warming trend in the British climate and as a result we had a number of years when December was the coldest and snowiest month of the year. But outside of those periods, cold Christmas-New Year periods have been few and far between and the majority of cold spells have been concentrated in January and February.

Since then, the nearest approach to a consistently cold Christmas-New Year period was arguably 2014, when for example at Waddington near Lincoln, Boxing Day was quite mild to begin with but snow accumulated that evening and stuck around until early on New Year's Day 2015.

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I think I need to correct you here.

January 2013 was a tale of two halves but a colder second half, not the first. Generally mild up to around the 13th, then the cold weather kicked in and was generally on and off from mid January 2013 until early April 2013

January 2021 wasn't overly cold, nothing that I would call significant and the month overall was only a very small margin below average CET wise.

I would agree with 2010, 2009, 1997, 1987 and 1985 though for first half of January cold

Here the cold weather in Jan 2013 kicked in around the 10th and lasted until the 25th, so mid month. It only turned really cold around the 14th but it was coldish from the 10th onwards. Either way it was a January which was different to the typical contemporary January of damp blandness.

For 2021 I was talking about the first 10 days or so of the month which were cold, then it turned milder after that (with occasional short cold spells, IIRC?)

Edited December 30, 2023 by Summer8906