January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

(a) January CET forecast contest

__ __ averages and extremes __ __

(including all CET values since 1981)

bold type for warmest 13, italic type middle 16 and underlined type coldest 14. 

(note all temps converted to v2.0.1.0 in this report)

 

12.7 .. warmest daily CET mean (1st, 2022)

 7.6 ... warmest January (1916)

 7.5
 7.4
 7.3 ... tied second warmest (1796 & 1921)
 7.2
 7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

 7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
 6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733)
 6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975)
 6.7 ... tied eighth warmest (1983, 2008.)
 6.6 ... tenth warmest (1898.)
 6.5 ... tied eleventh warmest (1686, 1990)
 6.4 ... tied thirteenth warmest (1736, 1875, 1884, 2020)
 6.3 ... tied seventeenth warmest (1846, 1932)
 6.2 ... nineteenth warmest (1737)
 6.1 ... twentieth warmest (1989)
 
 6.0 ... two tied for 21th warmest (1682, 1708)
 5.9 ... five tied for 23rd warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993, 2005)
 5.8 ... four tied for 28th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944, 2014)
 5.7 ..  tied 32nd warmest (1890, 1938.) 
 5.6 .. five tied,  most recent 1930 
 5.5 .. 1999, 2002, 2012, 2016
 5.4 .. most recent 1948
 5.3 .. 1988, 1994, 2018

 5.2 .. 2004, 2023
 5.1 .. 1998

 5.0 .. most recent 1711
 4.9 .. most recent 1943
 4.8 .. 1981, 1995, 2000 ... --- average 2001-2023 ---

 4.7 .. 2022 ... --- average 1991-2020 ---  ---average 1994-2023 ---

... ... this has been the 30-yr average since 1988-2017 (warmest 2 dec 1988-2017, 1989-2018, 4.74)

 4.6 .. most recent 1927 ... only the 30-yr avg twice (v2.0), 1985-2014, 1986-2015

 4.5 .. 2015

 4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2003, 2006 ... 

 ... ... ... -- also average 1898-1927 and 1910-1939 -- (warmth not reached again until 1980 to 2009)

 4.3 .. 1996
 4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 ----- ... most recent 1950
 4.1 .. most recent 1934

 4.0 .. 2017, 2019
 3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ---- and also 1984
 3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 ---- and also 2011
 3.7 .. most recent 1970
 3.6 .. 1992
 3.5 .. 1986, 2013 ... the 30-yr average as recently as 1958-87 (lowest since 3.3 1941-70)
 3.4 .. most recent 1964
 3.3 .. --- average of all years 1659-2023 (3.29) --- ... most recent 1978
 3.2 .. 1991, 2001, 2021

 3.1 .. 2009 ... --- average 1939-1968 --- (lowest Jan 30-year average since 1838-1867)
 3.0 .. --- average 1801-1900 ---- ... most recent 1719
 2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ---- ... most recent 1966
 2.8 .. most recent 1977
 2.7 .. 1982
 2.6 .. --- average 1659-1700 --- ... most recent 1955
 2.5 .. most recent 1908
 2.4 .. 1997 and --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
 2.3 .. most recent 1980
 2.2 .. most recent 1947
 2.1 .. most recent 1886

 2.0 ... --- average 1766 to 1795 --- coldest 30-year average ... most recent 1809
 1.9 ... most recent 1813
 1.8 ... most recent 1803
 1.7 ... most recent 1861
 1.6 ... most recent 1959
 1.5 ... 2010
 1.4 ... most recent (only case) 1744
 1.3 ... most recent 1929
 1.2 ... most recent 1867
 1.1 ... most recent 1841
 1.0 ... most recent 1771
 0.9 ... tied 43rd coldest (1880, 1942, 1985)
 0.8 ... tied 41st coldest (1768, 1987) 
 0.7 ... tied 39th coldest (1766, 1850)
 0.6 ... tied 37th coldest (1774, 1842)
 0.5 ... tied 32nd coldest (1681, 1685, 1689, 1871, 1941)
 0.4 ... tied 30th coldest (1826, 1945)
 0.3 ... tied 27th coldest (1757, 1815, 1829)
 0.2 ... 26th coldest (1895)
 0.1 ... 25th coldest (1767)
 0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)
-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1, -1.2, -1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7, -1.8, -1.9
-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2 to -2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)
-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.5 ... mean on 14th, 1982

-7.7 ... coldest daily in Jan since 1963 (12th, 1987) or since any CET mean 12 Dec 1981 (-8.7)

-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan mean in past 156 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the third coldest day in any month and coldest in any Jan since -9.0 on 4 Jan 1867)
..... ..... 12 Dec 1981 at -8.7 was marginally colder, 8 Feb 1895 -8.5 C

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter the temperature forecast contest by end of day Sunday, 31 December (2023) or with increasing time penalties on the first three days of January 2024. 

 

(Optional) EWP forecast contest

-- Predict the January precipitation (snowfall liquid equivalent so for every 10 cm of snow, 10 mm precip on average), the standard we are using for this contest is the Hadley England and Wales Precip (EWP) and here are the averages and extremes (the period of record is 1766 to present) ...

184.6 .. wettest January (2014)

176.8 .. 2nd wettest Jan (1948)

146.0 .. 2021

 97.6 ... 2023

 94.8 .. --- average 1994-2023 ---

 94.2 .. --- average 1991-2020 ---

 93.0 .. --- average 1981-2010 ---

 81.6 _ average of all data 1766 to 2023

 36.3 _ 2022

 16.5 .. driest January in recent past (1997) -- 5th driest since these records started in 1766

 15.3 .. second driest January on record (1779)

 04.4 .. driest January (1766)

Notes: The recent past has seen several quite wet months besides 2014, 1988 (169.0 mm) was third wettest, 1995 (162.6 mm) was fourth wettest, and 2016 (149.5 mm) was 8th wettest, 1984 (149.3) was 9th wettest, 2021 (146.0 mm) was 12th wettest and 2008 (144.9) was 13th wettest. 1994 (18th) and 1999 (21st) are also in top 21 wettest Jans, and 1990, 1986 rank 23rd and 24th. So in the recent 38 years (1986 to 2023), we find eleven of the wettest 24, where at random (since 1766) only 3 cases would be expected. By 40th wettest another four of past fifty post-1974 years (1974, 1975, 1998, 2004) are added (total of 15 of 40 in just 50 of 258 years of record). 1993 and 1978 are also added by 51st rank, so 17 out of 51 (one third) of wettest Januaries are found in past fifty years (one in 5.2 is random).

Jan 2020 had 82.5 mm, while 2019 was a relatively dry 47.1 mm, and Jan 2018 was slightly wetter than average at 104.5 mm,  2017 produced 79.6 mm and 2015 had 101.0 mm. (2013 was 93.0, 2012 67.6, 2011 94.8, 2010 75.3, 2009 96.4). (Jan 2022, 2023 are in table above)

Dry Januaries have been rare in recent decades. Aside from 1997, the only cases since 1981 to record 40 mm or less include 2022 (36.3 mm), 1987 (33.9 mm), and 2006 with 31.9 mm. Since we counted cases in past fifty years, the count in the driest 51 is only five, about half of expectation. Wet beats dry 17-5 in that interval.

To enter the precip contest, forecast the England and Wales precip for Jan 2023, to nearest mm (and tenth if desired). You can add this to your temperature forecast or place it in a separate post. Same deadlines, scoring is to a maximum of 10 points each month. Any percentage forecast entered will be converted using 1991-2020 average of 94.2 mm. 

__ Good luck !! __ 

[East Lancs Rain]

I’m going for mild and wet, 5.6C with 120 mm please.

[WYorksWeather]

Far too early to make a guess, but as I have been doing for a while, here's some of @Roger J Smith's excellent data in graphical form:

10-year average in light blue / cyan, 30-year average in dark blue.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5.8C, 135mm

Atlantic dominated with named storms thrown in, no cold at all away from Scotland

[Dancerwithwings]

4.6C & 96mm

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

4.6C & 96mm

Hope you haven't got that the wrong way round for the CET?! 

[Dancerwithwings]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

Hope you haven't got that the wrong way round for the CET?! 

Lol 9.6C If that was the case Don, I’m sure we’d have an Icelandic fissure North to South within the CET….I’ll supply the marshmallows

[chilly milly]

4.5c and 62mm

[Don]

2 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Lol 9.6C If that was the case Don, I’m sure we’d have an Icelandic fissure North to South within the CET….I’ll supply the marshmallows

I hope I haven't gone and cursed it and 9.6C ends up being close to the mark!!   

You had better get those marshmallows in good time, as a precaution!! 

[LetItSnow!]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

I hope I haven't gone and cursed it and 9.6C ends up being close to the mark!!   

You had better get those marshmallows in good time, as a precaution!! 

When we all laughed the 10C guess off for December 2015 and it was too high...  Sadistic.

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

I hope I haven't gone and cursed it and 9.6C ends up being close to the mark!!   

You had better get those marshmallows in good time, as a precaution!! 

I’m for one and for excitement and extremes, if I was - 9.6C I’d be happy

but for now I’ll stick with my 4.6C atm Don

[Don]

4 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

When we all laughed the 10C guess off for December 2015 and it was too high...  Sadistic.

Exactly and I also joked that September would be the warmest on record!!

2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I’m for one and for excitement and extremes, if I was - 9.6C I’d be happy

but for now I’ll stick with my 4.6C atm Don

Well, that would smash the current January 1916 record by 2C!

I will take 4.6C thanks (not my guess atm btw!)

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by Don

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Exactly and I also joked that September would be the warmest on record!!

Well, that smash the current January 1916 record by 2C!

 

My 4.6C is only the 30-yr avg twice (v2.0), 1985-2014, 1986-2015….we’ll see

[Roger J Smith]

4.6 would seem mild before about 1990. I am encouraged by trends on later panels of GFS, probably a false hope if ever there was one, but I don't think GFS ever falsely shows mild anyway, so for it to turn cold, there at least needs to be a signal for cold. Verification of these is likely about 30-40 per cent over past few winters. And it's not blockbuster cold being shown. We need that enormous mid-Atlantic high to get sucked up into Greenland, or at least retrograde past 30W, to get a long-wave trough into a better position, for past two weeks it has been in eastern Europe. There seems to be a healthy supply of cold air in western Russia and Siberia, but at present a lot of it is leaking south into China. I read elsewhere Japan recently flipped from record warm to below normal, about 3-4 days back it was record warm all over Japan, now it's snowing and quite cold. 

Going to place an early forecast of 3.7 and 56.3 mm, if I see a different outcome I will scrap it around 31st. At this point I foresee a series of colder regimes with occasional reversals to mild, but on balance, turning colder second half, not particularly wet by recent January standards. A typical 19th century January you could say. 

(later edit, will stick to these early calls although I see a milder look to some recent runs)

Edited December 31, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[ScottD]

5.5c and 105mm.

[Leo97t]

2.8c and 50mm

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 hours ago, Don said:

Exactly and I also joked that September would be the warmest on record!!

Well, that would smash the current January 1916 record by 2C!

I will take 4.6C thanks (not my guess atm btw!)

 

hottest Xmas Eve for some this year

[Don]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hottest Xmas Eve for some this year

Yep, Christmas jumpers not required this year!  At this rate, manufacturers will be producing Christmas shorts!! 

[Don]

21 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Going to place an early forecast of 3.7 and 56.3 mm, if I see a different outcome I will scrap it around 31st. At this point I foresee a series of colder regimes with occasional reversals to mild, but on balance, turning colder second half, not particularly wet by recent January standards. A typical 19th century January you could say. 

Hopefully if you do decide to scrap it, it will be for a colder outcome! 

[JeffC]

3.5C and 90 mms please

[Scuba steve]

3 minutes ago, JeffC said:

3.5C and 90 mms please

I’ll settle for miserable which no doubt it will be 

[Weather26]

5.4C and 96mm please

[SteveB]

5.6c and 67mm please. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

0.7C with 76.6MM please 

[Norrance]

3.9C and78mms please.