January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

Estimate for CET to 7th is 5.4 C; after today, 4.9 C. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.1C +0.4C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[damianslaw]

After the very mild start, looks like we are now close to average, but still a little above. Not expecting much change in days ahead, by weekend near average, but then below by 17th going off current output. 

[Roger J Smith]

Estimate to 9th would be 4.5 C. Their down times are usually about a week so expecting resumed service soon. 

[TillyS]

11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

After the very mild start, looks like we are now close to average, but still a little above. Not expecting much change in days ahead, by weekend near average, but then below by 17th going off current output. 

Quite a strange month building up, at least to my eye. Despite the current cold feel, which really has felt very cold, the CET is substantially above average for the first third of the month.

Then we have a situation where you might expect the temps to be very low but with quite a bit of cloud cover (a ‘dirty high’) the empirical values may not sink the CET as much as you’d expect. So my guess is that by mid-month the value may still be above, or close to, the CET mean.

The month as a whole is probably going to come down to the battle next week between the northerly incursion and the attempt of the south-westerlies to fight back. Could go either way from here, depending how far and how embedded the north cold penetrates.

Edited January 10 by TillyS

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, TillyS said:

Quite a strange month building up, at least to my eye. Despite the current cold feel, which really has felt very cold, the CET is substantially above average for the first third of the month.

Then we have a situation where you might expect the temps to be very low but with quite a bit of cloud cover (a ‘dirty high’) the empirical values may not sink the CET as much as you’d expect. So my guess is that by mid-month the value may still be above, or close to, the CET mean.

The month as a whole is probably going to come down to the battle next week between the northerly incursion and the attempt of the south-westerlies to fight back. Could go either way from here, depending how far and how embedded the north cold penetrates.

If we are on 4.5 degrees, the first third of the month wouldn't be classed as substantially above average. The 61-90 mean is 3.8 degrees. 

Edited January 10 by damianslaw

[reef]

It has updated and is 5.1C to the 9th.

[Summer Sun]

5.1c to the 9th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

13 minutes ago, reef said:

It has updated and is 5.1C to the 9th.

That was quite a drop from 8.2C the day before!

Edited January 10 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[reef]

5 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

That was quite a drop from 8.2C the day before!

It would only require yesterday to have been -19.7C. Easy! 

[LetItSnow!]

Looking at the Met Office weekly forecast in the C.E.T. region the temperature should continue to plummet after a blip tomorrow. The forecast is now showing the minima well into the minuses now even for me in Lonson, so a healthy tumble before we get the plunge even, then we see what happens with the low event around the 17th though to me it looks like the southerly track option may be favoured as I currenty favour due to past experience. A milder turn could see an unexceptional month but there are quite healthy chances to beat 2021 as the coldest January since 2010 I think, currently.

 

Agree with the comment about the first third not being substantially above average and I suspect in a couple days we will be below average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.7C bang on average. Rainfall up to 46.7mm 62.8% of the monthly average

[WYorksWeather]

54 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Looking at the Met Office weekly forecast in the C.E.T. region the temperature should continue to plummet after a blip tomorrow. The forecast is now showing the minima well into the minuses now even for me in Lonson, so a healthy tumble before we get the plunge even, then we see what happens with the low event around the 17th though to me it looks like the southerly track option may be favoured as I currenty favour due to past experience. A milder turn could see an unexceptional month but there are quite healthy chances to beat 2021 as the coldest January since 2010 I think, currently.

 

Agree with the comment about the first third not being substantially above average and I suspect in a couple days we will be below average.

 I made the following prediction on January 3rd in the model thread:

Quote

CET for 1st-15th January will finish below average on 1961-1990, despite the very mild start

If the next six days average something around 2.5C I should be OK for that one. Not a particularly ambitious prediction to be fair, but I always feel a bit cautious these days predicting any below average temperatures!

[Weather-history]

On 02/01/2024 at 08:31, Weather-history said:

Could be a bit of a contrast between the second half of December and the first half of January, temperature wise

Not on the scale of 1837-38......I think

17th-31st December: 8.3
1st-15th January: -1.3

 

Maybe worth looking at recent contrasts between 2nd half of December and the first half of January. 

[kold weather]

Classic cold spell sandwiched between milder spells based on current models.

Hard to predict even with a modest degree of confidence where the CET will land, looking cold, perhaps at times subzero cold next week but then again we've seen in months like Dec 22 where we can be looking at a very cold month get upended by a mild final part of the month (of course Dec 22 was still cold, but we were down in the 0.x at one point!) 

A below average 61-90 really should be happening given just how cold next week might be if we do get plenty of clear skies under slacker conditions but we obviously don't have the confidence of later down the line should things go very SW based again for a while.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It should drop below 2c if the cold Northerly happens in a few days time. Looking at a few ice days for sure.

[summer blizzard]

Coolest first half since 2018 appears likely. More difficult to say what the end total will be but we have two large landing zones. 

3.3-4.6C is the coldest Jan since 2021. 

1.6-3.2C is the coldest Jan since 2010. 

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 10th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

From Sunday we should expect quite a drop, the coldest conditions will be to the north outside of the CET zone, but fully expect to be at least in the 3s by the 18th. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.4C -0.3C below average. Rainfall 47.8mm 64.2% of the monthly average.

[Metwatch]

If the final 10 days are less cold then my CET entry of 4.8C should be in good hands following the upcoming cold snap.

More worried about the rainfall and if it turns quite wet after the cold snap then another 100mm+ month would be likely. Still a 22mm gap between my entry and current value, so a few wet ish days won't be too much of an issue, but if another washout happens the EWP is going to spike up. We'll see what happens.

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 11th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The sharper the frosts the better.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield unchanged at 4.4C -0.3C below average. Rainfall up to 47.9mm 64.4% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.3C -0.4C below average. Rainfall up to 48mm 64.5% of the monthly average.