January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

4.6c to the 12th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[johncam]

So what we thinking now guys, another above average month 

[damianslaw]

46 minutes ago, johncam said:

So what we thinking now guys, another above average month 

Too early to call really, the cold over the next few days most likely will be cancelled out by mild thereafter, indeed the cold period looking quite shortlived for CET zone, only Monday- Friday set to be notably cold if the forecasts verify..

If we maintain the mild theme 20th onwards to the end then another comfortably above average month on the cards, but every chance colder incursions could appear later in the month making for an average or slightly above average month. The odds of below do appear to be waning.. but need a week or so, to call likely picture last third of month with confidence. 

Edited January 13 by damianslaw

[LetItSnow!]

3 hours ago, johncam said:

So what we thinking now guys, another above average month 

Not quite so sure about that. Cool to colder than average conditions will persist until around the 20th and suggestions of blowtorch south-westerlies I am dubious of currently. I think January 2024 will come out as a close to average month. I hope that this winter is following the pattern of the winter of 1985/1986 with a balmy December, near-average January and a very cold February.

[Summer8906]

41 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Not quite so sure about that. Cool to colder than average conditions will persist until around the 20th and suggestions of blowtorch south-westerlies I am dubious of currently. I think January 2024 will come out as a close to average month. I hope that this winter is following the pattern of the winter of 1985/1986 with a balmy December, near-average January and a very cold February.

Mind you looking at the GFS the 18th looks like the last cold day. The 19th sees westerlies coming in and then it turns mild and wet on the 20th by the looks of things. It's then extremely wet and stormy for about 5 days and then less wet, more anticyclonic but probably mild, dull and drizzly.

The trouble with blowtorch SW-lies on the models is that they almost always verify IMX. So it wouldn't surprise me if this is yet another mild, wet and dull month -  a combination we've got very used to of late. (I realise sunshine isn't part of this prediction but on current GFS models we're really going to struggle from the 20th onwards - when will we finally get a significantly sunnier-than-average month?)

 

Edited January 13 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

1 minute ago, Summer8906 said:

Mind you looking at the GFS the 18th looks like the last cold day. The 19th sees westerlies coming in and then it turns mild and wet on the 20th by the looks of things.

 

The last run has a surface high on the 19th with -5 uppers, that's not going to be mild. The 20th is purely on timing and in the unreliable timeframe but the mild air creeps in from the west but the east stays rather chilly so probably a near normal day for the C.E.T.

[Roger J Smith]

CET will fall gradually to 19th and probably hit a low point of around 3.7 C. After that, while it's a milder pattern, there's a bit of cold zonal tendency, would not expect day after day of 8-10 means, probably an average near 6.2 for 20-31 Jan, combined with the 3.7 estimate to 19th, gives an outcome of 4.7 C. Let's say 4.4 to 5.0, not particularly mild by recent standards. 

EWP current value is 52.5 mm, GFS suggests about 45 mm grid average to 29 Jan, so 100 mm or so could be good (final map on 29 Jan would not suggest much additional rainfall 30-31 Jan). 80 to 120 probably still in play given usual uncertainty in 16-day GFS rainfall estimates. It is not likely to be a total bust, although that would work for me (as would a non-appearance of the milder interval). 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

CET will fall gradually to 19th and probably hit a low point of around 3.7 C. After that, while it's a milder pattern, there's a bit of cold zonal tendency, would not expect day after day of 8-10 means, probably an average near 6.2 for 20-31 Jan, combined with the 3.7 estimate to 19th, gives an outcome of 4.7 C. Let's say 4.4 to 5.0, not particularly mild by recent standards. 

EWP current value is 52.5 mm, GFS suggests about 45 mm grid average to 29 Jan, so 100 mm or so could be good (final map on 29 Jan would not suggest much additional rainfall 30-31 Jan). 80 to 120 probably still in play given usual uncertainty in 16-day GFS rainfall estimates. It is not likely to be a total bust, although that would work for me (as would a non-appearance of the milder interval). 

A finish in the high 4s if we see a mild last third would be quite fitting. A month bookended by mild first and last third with a cold middle. 

[Don]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A finish in the high 4s if we see a mild last third would be quite fitting. A month bookended by mild first and last third with a cold middle. 

I'm thinking my 4.9C guess could be looking quite good now and also that January will not be very snowy.  With the upcoming cold spell not really looking to deliver away from Scotland, northern England and maybe the far south, this could also be close to the mark.  However, all guess work on my part!

Overall though, this winter is turning into another disappointment, although still time for things to turn around.

[damianslaw]

32 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm thinking my 4.9C guess could be looking quite good now and also that January will not be very snowy.  With the upcoming cold spell not really looking to deliver away from Scotland, northern England and maybe the far south, this could also be close to the mark.  However, all guess work on my part!

Overall though, this winter is turning into another disappointment, although still time for things to turn around.

Plenty of time yet Don, I class much of March as winter... last March delivered a snowy week after a snowless February. 

[Don]

45 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Plenty of time yet Don, I class much of March as winter... last March delivered a snowy week after a snowless February. 

Indeed, the 8th-10th March last year certainly delivered!  

[Summer Sun]

4.5c to the 13th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[WYorksWeather]

Even my prediction of a below average first half to the month is almost certain not to come off now. Would need negative CET means and I don't think we'll get them. Probably a bit colder over the next few days, probably settling the CET around 3.5-4.0C would be my guess, then an absolutely blowtorch final couple of weeks if current forecasts are right. If the last 10 days averaged 8C, my guess of 5.4C would be in a good place.

Some of the currently modelling is so absurd it could even be higher than that. Probably low to mid 5s is a good bet, but given how bonkers things can get if we do sustain the south-westerlies right out to the end, it might even get to the high 5s or even low 6s.

A below average finish 1961-1990 is not happening, so that'll only be 13 months in a row. Not yet the longest such streak, since we had 18 in a row from June 2021 to November 2022 inclusive.

[Don]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

Even my prediction of a below average first half to the month is almost certain not to come off now. Would need negative CET means and I don't think we'll get them. Probably a bit colder over the next few days, probably settling the CET around 3.5-4.0C would be my guess, then an absolutely blowtorch final couple of weeks if current forecasts are right. If the last 10 days averaged 8C, my guess of 5.4C would be in a good place.

Some of the currently modelling is so absurd it could even be higher than that. Probably low to mid 5s is a good bet, but given how bonkers things can get if we do sustain the south-westerlies right out to the end, it might even get to the high 5s or even low 6s.

A below average finish 1961-1990 is not happening, so that'll only be 13 months in a row. Not yet the longest such streak, since we had 18 in a row from June 2021 to November 2022 inclusive.

I thought yesterday that my 4.9C guess looked good.  However, now it could be way too low!!

[Summer Sun]

4.4c to the 14th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like finishing above average now thanks to the mild weather coming from Saturday.

[johncam]

33 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like finishing above average now thanks to the mild weather coming from Saturday.

Aye again , wonder if we will get a below average month in near future 

[reef]

It looks quite similar to December but with the cold mid-month instead of at the beginning. Locally, the first half of December was 1.3C below average but the month finished 1.7C above overall. The first 15 days of January are -0.2C here and this will fall, but then exceptional mild looks to be the order of the day making it finish above average.

Could be the case of a mild overall winter but with a few short-lived cold spells hidden away within it. Shame there isn't much snow.

[Don]

23 minutes ago, reef said:

Could be the case of a mild overall winter but with a few short-lived cold spells hidden away within it. Shame there isn't much snow.

It's going to take a very cold February indeed to get a colder than average winter!  I just hope we have more luck ref to snow during any cold spells that do occur next month!

[kold weather]

Well after possible suggestions of a below 61-90 month, the models coming into pretty impressive agreement on a mild, probably very mild flow for a time which will probably push us above the 61-90 average again, perhaps comfortably so. The modern average will be a little closer unless we go very mild pretty much nonstop.

[Metwatch]

We know the CET will shoot up from this weekend, but I'm more interested in how low it could get. I think it should dip below 3.5C, but below 3C Is now a stretch. Quite cold nights coming up and chilly days, for quite a few days rather than a typical brief 1-2 day cold interlude from northerly 'toppler' setups. The month ending below 5C this month could still be doable.

[WYorksWeather]

29 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

We know the CET will shoot up from this weekend, but I'm more interested in how low it could get. I think it should dip below 3.5C, but below 3C Is now a stretch. Quite cold nights coming up and chilly days, for quite a few days rather than a typical brief 1-2 day cold interlude from northerly 'toppler' setups. The month ending below 5C this month could still be doable.

I really very strongly doubt a below 5C finish. Admittedly the modelling could change, but there's one of the strongest signals I think I've ever seen for mild conditions to round out the month, and at times it is very mild, perhaps even close to breaking daily records.

If we suppose we reach the 20th with the CET at around 3.5C, probably at the lower end of possibilities, and then we average 8C to the end (which  be under-doing things!), then we'd get a CET just above 5C. My central estimate is probably in the 5.5C range, and I'd be more surprised by a finish under 5C than one above 6C.

[kold weather]

11 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

I really very strongly doubt a below 5C finish. Admittedly the modelling could change, but there's one of the strongest signals I think I've ever seen for mild conditions to round out the month, and at times it is very mild, perhaps even close to breaking daily records.

If we suppose we reach the 20th with the CET at around 3.5C, probably at the lower end of possibilities, and then we average 8C to the end (which  be under-doing things!), then we'd get a CET just above 5C. My central estimate is probably in the 5.5C range, and I'd be more surprised by a finish under 5C than one above 6C.

Whatever happens we roll onto yet another month above the 61-90 average, makes it 24 out of the last 25. Starting to become statistically quite striking.

[Summer Sun]

4.1c to the 15th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[Earthshine]

Potential for exceptionally mild end to the month.  Long way off of course but quite a few of these are very February 2019-esque