January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests

[TillyS]

Oh I’ll join in, if it’s not too late

January 6.4C

[jonboy]

A late 3.9 and 99mm please

[snowray]

5 hours ago, TillyS said:

Oh I’ll join in, if it’s not too late

January 6.4C

Yes your ok, first three days of the month are fine but with a small penalty, you can also add a precipitation estimate for January if you wish.

[John88B]

3.3c and 75mm please.

[Methuselah]

On 23/12/2023 at 21:10, Methuselah said:

6C and 100mm thanks, Roger.

I'll adjust my CET down to 4C, Roger, but leave the rainfall as it is. 

[jmp223]

4.4; 88mm

[Rob 79812010]

4.2 80 mm

[LetItSnow!]

3.1C and 86mm. I do anticipate colder weather is possible but will be a tad more modest. I think high pressure will become more dominant and there could be some snow and that the Atlantic won't be as powerful but enough of an influence to stop an overly dry month from coming off.

[damianslaw]

A little later than usual.. I'll go with 3.7 degrees, much more settled than recent months with frost a common feature but perhaps we may struggle to import any significant cold uppers, though a chance we will, if so, then a sub 3 degree month could be on the cards, which would very notable. Some snow possible anywhere, perhaps a couple of significant falls in the north. 

[rwtwm]

Whoops! Sorry forgot so will have to take a penalty. 4.2c and 74mm please.

[summer blizzard]

7.4

5.5

2.4 - 2021

7.5

5.7

4.8 - 2018

5.2 

5.1

6.2

6.2

4.7 - 2013

6.2

5.2

-0.2 - 2010

Took a look at the first halves to Jan given the cool outlook be that UK High or Scandi High. 

Not many cool first halves means it's not difficult to rank well although we are unlikely to surpass 2021. 

 

 

 

 

[seaside 60]

Late again....

3.7c
52mm

thanks

[Somerset girl]

Late I know , sorry , so 4.4C and 53 mm of precipitation  please . 

[Roger J Smith]

I will edit the table of forecasts after day's end in case there are one or two other late entries, and even so, you can still enter on 2nd or 3rd as well, and those would eventually find their way in. 

[Godber 1]

2.1c and 84mm please.

[mulzy]

3.0C and 76mm please

[Shillitocettwo]

  Im late for once!

 

  A sandwich month, broadly speaking a mild and wet start, dry with cold temperatures mid month but I sense, with a nice interesting band of transient snow, a very mild last third.

  I want to go lower but in this era of possible runaway climate change 5.0.C is the lowest Im offering with a wet 132mm.

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

7.4

5.5

2.4 - 2021

7.5

5.7

4.8 - 2018

5.2 

5.1

6.2

6.2

4.7 - 2013

6.2

5.2

-0.2 - 2010

Took a look at the first halves to Jan given the cool outlook be that UK High or Scandi High. 

Not many cool first halves means it's not difficult to rank well although we are unlikely to surpass 2021. 

 

 

 

 

Interesting to note the four coldest first halves to Jan since 2010 were followed by cold Februaries as well.. 

[summer blizzard]

2015 and 2012 were the other cool ones (6.2).

[Roger J Smith]

CET averages and extremes for January

_ all data now converted to v2.0

... the extremes are 1772-2023 ...[] below are for 1981-2010 []... these are again 1772-2023

DATE __ MAX (year) ____ MIN (year) ___ CET mean, cum  __ extremes of running CET 01-date

01 Jan ... 12.7 (2022) ... ... -5.9 (1820) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... 12.7 (2022) ... -5.9 (1820)
02 Jan ... 10.4 (1922.48) ... -6.1 (1786) ..... 4.5 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 11.3 (2022) ... -5.9 (1786)
03 Jan ... 11.5 (1932) ... ... -7.7 (1795) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.3 ..... ......10.4 (2022) ... -6.5 (1786)
04 Jan ... 10.4 (1948) ... ... -9.0 (1867) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 9.5 (1916) ... -6.0 (1795)
05 Jan ... 11.3 (1957) ... ... -6.5 (1789) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.3 (1916) ... -5.3 (1795)

06 Jan ... 10.4 (1898) ... ... -7.0 (1894) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 .... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -4.6 (1795)
07 Jan ... 10.4 (1890) ... ... -7.7 (1841) ... ... 3.3 ... ... 4.2 ..... ...... 9.2 (1916) ... -3.9 (1795)
08 Jan ..... 9.7 (1775,1858) ... -9.2 (1841) ... 3.9 ... ..4.2 ..... ....... 8.8 (1916, 92) ... -3.3 (1795) (-3.2 1864)

09 Jan ... 10.6 (1998) ... ... -5.0 (1841) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.2 ..... ....... 8.5 (1916) ... -2.8 (1795) (-2.7 1864)
10 Jan ... 11.2 (1921) ... ... -6.7 (1814) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.5 (1916) ... -3.0 (1814)

11 Jan ... 10.1 (1990) ... ... -5.5 (1838) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.5 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814)
12 Jan ..... 9.9 (1976, 2007) .. -7.7 (1987) ....4.3 ... ... 4.3 ..... ...... 8.4 (1916) ... -3.4 (1814)
13 Jan ... 10.0 (1796, 2007) .. -6.6 (1987) ....4.5 ... ... 4.3 ..... ...... 8.4 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)
14 Jan ... 10.2 (2011) ... ... -7.5 (1982) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
15 Jan ... 10.3 (1804) ... ... -8.5 (1820) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)

16 Jan ... 10.8 (1990) ... ... -7.4 (1881) ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)
17 Jan ... 10.2 (1908) ... ... -6.9 (1881) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)
18 Jan ... 10.0 (1828) ... ... -6.2 (1891) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
19 Jan ... 11.2 (1930) ... ... -8.9 (1823) ... ... 5.0 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814)
20 Jan ... 11.2 (2008) ... ...-11.9 (1838) ... .. 5.0 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.4 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)

21 Jan ... 10.8 (1796)... ... .-8.0 (1881) ... .. .5.0 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.4 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814)
22 Jan ... 10.2 (1969) ... ... -6.5 (1881) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) ... ... -8.4 (1963) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.0 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) ... ... -8.2 (1963) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.7 (1916) ... -3.6 (1814)
25 Jan ... 11.6 (2016) ... ... -8.9 (1795) ... ... 4.0 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ....-3.6 (1795, 1814)

26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -7.6 (1945) ... ... 4.0 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.6 (1795)
27 Jan ... 10.5 (2016) ... ... -6.5 (1776) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.3 (1814)
28 Jan ..... 9.7 (1944,83) .. -6.3 (1776) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.7 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814)
29 Jan ... 10.2 (1854,1966) .. -6.8 (1776) ... 4.5... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.7 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795, 1814)
30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) ... ... -7.5 (1776) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.7 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795)
31 Jan ... 10.7 (1868) ... ... -7.2 (1776) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795)

_____________________________________________________________________________

As a measure of how cold Jan 1963 was, the running mean to 24th, 25th and 26th was -2.7 C. 

1814 fell back only to -2.9 C after finally losing the lead to 1795..2010 was -1.9 after ten days.

1834 almost caught the leaders by 28th at 7.5 C, finished on 7.1. ...

1796 was as high as 7.5 on the 25th and 1976 was at 8.0 on 13th and 14th, 7.8 on 22nd.

1873 was running close to 8.0 at mid-month. 

2002 had a 31-day interval mid-Jan to mid-Feb that averaged near 8.0 C. 

------------------------------------ --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------

(tracking daily CET 1991-2020) ...  First number is the daily mean, second is the running average to that date. 

 

 1._ 4.7 _ 4.7 _____ 11._  5.0 _ 4.8 ______ 21.  4.3 _ 4.8 _______ 31._ 4.4 _ 4.7

 2._ 4.5 _ 4.6 _____ 12._  5.2 _ 4.8 ______ 22.  3.9 _ 4.8 _______ 

 3._ 4.2 _ 4.5 _____ 13._  5.4 _ 4.9 ______ 23.  4.0 _ 4.8 _______ 

 4._ 4.2 _ 4.4 _____ 14._  5.2 _ 4.9 ______ 24.  4.4 _ 4.7 _______ 

 5._ 4.6 _ 4.4 _____ 15._  5.1 _ 4.9 ______ 25.  4.5 _ 4.7 _______ 

 6._ 5.0 _ 4.5 _____ 16._  5.1 _ 4.9 ______ 26.  4.4 _ 4.7 _______ 

 7._ 4.7 _ 4.6 _____ 17._  4.7 _ 4.9 ______ 27.  4.5 _ 4.7 _______ 

 8._ 5.4 _ 4.7 _____ 18._  4.5 _ 4.9 ______ 28.  4.2 _ 4.7 _______ 

 9._ 5.1 _ 4.7 _____ 19._  4.8 _ 4.9 ______ 29.  4.4 _ 4.7 _______ 

10._ 5.1 _ 4.8 _____ 20._  4.6 _ 4.9 ______ 30.  4.1 _ 4.7 _______ 

=============================================================

 

[Weather-history]

Could be a bit of a contrast between the second half of December and the first half of January, temperature wise

Not on the scale of 1837-38......I think

17th-31st December: 8.3
1st-15th January: -1.3

 

Edited January 2 by Weather-history

[LetItSnow!]

Can't wait to get today out of the way and start to tick down that C.E.T. If we get that cold easterly then a cold high with the surface still cold, maybe even colder, we should see at least a healthy tick down. Nothing extreme, but lovely to see. Won't get carried away with anything yet though. We once thought February 2021 was the second coming of February 1986!

[Summer Sun]

7.0c to the 1st

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Frigid]

20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

7.0c to the 1st

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

We start at where December left off. Expect that to climb down over the next week. 

[TillyS]

On 01/01/2024 at 07:22, TillyS said:

Oh I’ll join in, if it’s not too late

January 6.4C

Thanks everyone. Okay I’ll stick to 6.4C please and 95 mm