January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

CET update

8.2c to the 2nd

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average (all of Jan)
3.7c above the 81 to 10 average (1-2 Jan)

3.6c above the 91 to 20 average (1-2 Jan)

 

EWP started wet, 17.6 mm on 1st, approx 20 mm more on 2nd, so around 38 now. A dry trend sets in next week, GFS projections suggest EWP will only rise 15-20 mm by 19 Jan, to around 55 mm. 

Outlook is very cold at times, CET looks set to drop steadily and could be as low as 2 C by 19 Jan (expect 5 C by end of week and an average close to -1 C is depicted for ten days after coming weekend, if we were at 5 C after Sunday and ten days of zero C followed, CET would be 2.2 C by 18 Jan. Remains to be seen if GFS is for real or not. 

[damianslaw]

A month that is starting on the opposite note to December which began with brief cold and then turbo charged mild... this Jan is starting very mild but come Saturday temps will tumble....

[Weather-history]

Already this month is not in the top 20 driest January on record even if the rest of month records no rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 3rd

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[WYorksWeather]

I've stuck my neck out for a colder than average first half over on the model thread. The remaining days in the first half would need to average around 2C I guess? Might actually be a bit of a stretch to get there.

[SummerShower]

7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

8.2c to the 3rd

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.9c above the 81 to 10 average

I've noticed the actual value for the 3rd hasn't updated, though must be somewhere between 8.1-8.3 to give the 8.2 average.

[Roger J Smith]

Correct, no data posted for 3rd but they say 8.2 to the 3rd and usually if no update, the date does not update. Odd. But I don't think there is any significant error involved because looking at max and min for 3rd, daily value is probably close to 8 C anyway (around a 10, 6 outcome). Today is a bit cooler and CET report tomorrow if it includes all data will probably be 7.5 to 7.8 to 4th, after which down she goes. 

 

[damianslaw]

Should see a rapid drop in the days ahead, quite likely to be close to average by this time next week with expected means weekend onwards in the 2-3 degree range but quite possibly below this. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Once the frosts set in this will tumble.

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 4th

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C +1.6C above average. Rainfall 45.8mm 61.6% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 5th

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Relativistic]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

8.2c to the 5th

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

I'm only seeing data for the 1st and 2nd which would explain why it's been stuck on 8.2°C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2024.txt

[Metwatch]

EWP check: Just about at 50mm now up to the 4th. High pressure mostly in control from now on, so should stay around there for the next 7-10 days. With my entry of 74mm, I would want the rest of this month to remain mostly dry. The last 7-10 days however could easily turn wetter again.

CET is all up for grabs at the moment, might end at a cold 2.0C to 1.5C, or somehow mild again above 5.0C. A tumble down into the 2C to 3C range by the 20th would be best estimate given current models.

Edited January 6 by Metwatch

[LetItSnow!]

12 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

EWP check: Just about at 50mm now up to the 4th. High pressure mostly in control from now on, so should stay around there for the next 7-10 days. With my entry of 74mm, I would want the rest of this month to remain mostly dry. The last 7-10 days however could easily turn wetter again.

CET is all up for grabs at the moment, might end at a cold 2.0C to 1.5C, or somehow mild again above 5.0C. A tumble down into the 2C to 3C range by the 20th would be best estimate given current models.

Funny how in terms of rainfall we're basically at the same pace as January 2014, the wettest ever. If high pressure wasn't taking over we'd probably be seeing another extremely wet month. I remember that winter so vividly and how tiresome and depressing it felt, even as a rain lover. Ten years on and the outlook into January couldn't be more different.

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Relativistic said:

I'm only seeing data for the 1st and 2nd which would explain why it's been stuck on 8.2°C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2024.txt

Yes this should be in the 7s by now, and its down down down hereon..

[stewfox]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes this should be in the 7s by now, and its down down down hereon..

Showing 8.2c by the 5th ? 

Edited January 7 by stewfox

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.1C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall 46.2mm 62.1% of the monthly average.

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, stewfox said:

Showing 8.2c by the 5th ? 

There's only data for the 1st and 2nd. The 1st had a mean of 8 and the 2nd 8.4. It's almost definitely lower than 8.2 now.

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 6th

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[LetItSnow!]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

8.2c to the 6th

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

Is there a point in updating it with the same number when it's not updating? I just checked the daily means and it still shows the 1st and 2nd.

[Roger J Smith]

Would say the actual figure for CET is around 6.2 C after 6th, give or take 0.3. Will be 5.7 after today (eventually it will update, will continue to estimate values until it does).

[feb1991blizzard]

18 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Would say the actual figure for CET is around 6.2 C after 6th, give or take 0.3. Will be 5.7 after today (eventually it will update, will continue to estimate values until it does).

it says it's updated to 7th but clearly that is ollox, there's no way it could have stayed on 8.2 the last 3 days.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.5C +0.8C above average. Rainfall still at 46.2mm 62.1% of the monthly average

[WYorksWeather]

Someone at the Met Office must have broken the CET tracker...